Today's Fantasy Rx

Let's take a look at this year's top AL pitchers through April 19th, specifically focusing on their PQS DOM scores. With this necessarily limited sample size, we're only going to examine pitchers who have at least two 5 starts, except when a pitcher only has two starts. We'll rank them in descending order with pitchers who've only thrown the most 5's first, and then sorting by those who've shown improvement by fixing the problems with their other starts as follows, thereby posting the most recent 5's. A lack of starts will not be held against the pitcher.

255 PQS
Kevin Appier(12axy LPR): 1 W on a 13:8 K:BB in 19 IP with 13 H, 2 HR, and a 17-26 G-F ratio. He's yet to display either the dominance or command that I expected of him this year. Hopefully he'll be able to improve once his schedule eases in May, but the G-F still concerns me.

545 PQS
Orlando Hernandez(xy LPR): 2 W on a 19:6 K:BB in 21 IP with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 18-27 G-F ratio. While the G-F concerns me, the other numbers represent a significant improvement from the past few seasons. As long as the Yankees can protect him with their strong bullpen, El Ducky could have a great year.

554 PQS
Roy Halladay(12ax LPR): 1 W on a 20:3 K:BB in 22 IP with 19 H, 0 HR, and a 35-13 G-F ratio. I'm extremely impressed with this debut and consider Halladay to be perhaps the best trade target in the AL. He's certainly the hottest pitcher, and both his K:BB and G-F ratios rank near the top of any pitcher in the majors. We might even seriously consider him for Challenge the next time he has two starts.

Barry Zito(124abxy LPR): 0 W on a 18:8 K:BB in 18.2 IP with 16 H, 2 HR, and a 17-21 G-F ratio. He should probably have at least two wins by now, but I can see potential problems developing. He's only stayed in for about 6 IP each start, and his G-F ratio is a little weak. I'm definitely not interested in him for Challenge right now, but we'll take a more serious look if he can stay healthy for another month.

0545 PQS
Pedro Martinez(1234abcxyz LPR): 2 W on a 22:6 K:BB in 22.1 IP with 16 H, 0 HR, and a 12-16 G-F ratio. While still not the Pedro of the last few years, his skills appear fairly intact. He won't re-emerge as a truly dominant pitcher until he starts lasting longer into games, but with the relative strength of the Boston pen, I expect him to continue winning the majority of his starts. He remains a very good Challenge play.

0535 PQS
Roger Clemens(123abcxyz LPR): 1 W on a 26:10 K:BB in 23.2 IP with 25 H, 2 HR and a 32-20 G-F ratio. He's still a dominant pitcher and a great choice in any league. Ignore the Opening Day meltdown because that only occurred after he stupidly tried to field a grounder with his bare hand. We still really like him for Challenge because the Yankees are going to have a great year, positioning Clemens and all the starters for well over a dozen wins each.

5235 PQS
Todd Ritchie(xyz LPR): 1 W on a 16:9 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 20 H, 1 HR, and a 40-24 G-F ratio. He'll never be a great strikeout pitcher, but he and Buehrle give the Sox two very solid pitchers who remain effective due to solid overall skills. I see no reason to specifically target Ritchie in your leagues, but if he's available from an owner that expected more wins or strikeouts, I'd definitely see what he costs.

Other pitchers with all 4 or 5 starts:
45 PQS
Tim Wakefield(2ax LPR): 1 W on a 11:2 K:BB in 11 IP with 9 H, 2 HR, and a 14-14 G-F ratio. Wakefield wound up leading the league in ERA for much of the first half last year, so as long as he stays in the rotation, you should see if he's available in your league. While he shouldn't hurt you out of the bullpen, the Red Sox really should keep him starting over someone like Darren Oliver considering their respective past performances.

544 PQS
Doug Davis(4x LPR): 2 W on a 15:3 K:BB in 24 IP with 17 H, 0 HR, and a 24-32 G-F ratio. His two wins were against the lefty-heavy Oakland lineup. My main concern for Davis is his tough April schedule, but as long as he stays healthy and can maintain these numbers, I see no reason for him not to approach 20 wins. I expected someone on Texas to win close to 20, and with Park's injury problems, Davis is the logical choice. You probably should inquire as to his availability in your league.

444 PQS
Frank Castillo(13by LPR): 1 W on a 10:5 K:BB in 18 IP with 7 H, 3 HR, and a 27-18 G-F ratio. He's not posting enough strikeouts, but he's also doing a great job of minimizing hits in front of a suddenly resurgent Boston defense. He's still a questionable acquisition since he'll only approach $10 if his luck holds, but he's a perfectly respectable fifth starter for both MLB and rotisserie purposes.

4 PQS
Delvin James(No LPR): 0 W on a 3:1 K:BB in 5 IP with 5 H, 1 HR, and a 4-7 G-F ratio. He has a home start against Baltimore this weekend that those of you with daily transactions might want to consider, and while I don't expect him to return to this list after his great debut, I thought he'd be a solid 5th starter option for Tampa at the beginning of the year. He's worth a buck or two of FAAB in leagues with fairly deep reserve lists, although I don't trust him in leagues where you can't cut him.

Two extra notes:
4453 PQS
Mike Mussina(1234abcxyz LPR): 3 W on a 22:4 K:BB in 28.1 IP with 17 H, 5 HR, and a 22-27 G-F ratio. I'm including him because he should have won his fourth game yesterday if not for Rivera blowing the save and then vulturing the win, and he was only 1 HR over and 1 K short of a 5. I'm mildly concerned about his K/9, HR/9, and G-F ratios, but he's still the best overall pitcher in the AL and a necessary play for most Challenge teams.

3524 PQS
Kenny Rogers(xy LPR): 1 W on a 15:10 K:BB in 26 IP with 21 H, 1 HR, and a 46-17 G-F ratio. I watched the second half of last night's start while writing this article, and every time I looked up it seemed that Rogers had just finished another inning; he was one strikeout short of a 5 while pitching a shutout. While Rogers is traditionally a groundball pitcher with a 1.7 G-F over the last five years and a 1.47 G-F in 2001, his current 2.71 places him with the best groundball pitchers in the majors. He's compiled these stats against Oakland twice and Seattle twice, so while both these teams are fairly lefty heavy, he pitched better in the second game against each team. His next two starts are a home-and-away set against Toronto, so after six starts, he'll have only faced three teams. He follows this interesting first month with a road start in Cleveland(completing a two start road week), a home start against Detroit, and a road start in Chicago. The weak strikeout rate still concerns me, but if he's available in your league, you should probably go ahead and pick him up.

I just came across a note I made from a few months ago that reminded me that I completely forgot to review Pablo Ozuna when discussing Florida 2B prospects. While we'll also add this to the archived article, here are my Ozuna comments:

Pablo Ozuna, 23, B:R, T:R. He missed all of last season with a wrist injury and really needs a full year at AAA after a late-season 2000 major league promotion straight from AA Portland. Ozuna is still rather young and could mature into a capable starting middle infielder at either position. While most of his 2000 improvement can be atttributed to his repeating the level, he still managed an excellent BB:K improvement from 13:50 to 40:55. While he might be a decent utility infielder now, considering his lost year of development time, I'd stick him back in AAA for at least a half-season until he shows that he retained his plate discipline and begins stealing bases more efficiently.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Please let me know if you found these two articles useful, and I'll be happy to consider any changes or additions to next week's columns. I wasn't sure how this would work when I started these two articles yesterday, but I'm quite pleased with the results to this point. Beginning in May, I'll provide updated LPR ratings for the 2000-2002 seasons on this weekly basis.