Today's Fantasy Rx

Let's take a look at this year's top NL pitchers through April 18th, specifically focusing on their PQS DOM scores. With this necessarily limited sample size, we're only going to examine pitchers who have at least two 5 starts, except when a pitcher only has two starts. We'll rank them in descending order with pitchers who've only thrown the most 5's first, and then sorting by those who've shown improvement by fixing the problems with their other starts as follows, thereby posting the most recent 5's. A lack of starts will not be held against the pitcher.

55 PQS
Josh Fogg(No LPR): He pitches his third game tonight against Vincenta Padille and Philadelphia, but he's been fantastic through two starts, posting 2 W on a 11:3 K:BB in 14 IP with 8 H, 1 H, and a 19-12 G-F ratio. We'd be willing to take a chance on him in almost any league.

5505 PQS
Al Leiter(123abxyz LPR): Aside from only throwing 3 IP against Montreal on April 13th, he's managed 2 W on a 24:7 K:BB in 24 IP with 16 H, 0 HR, and a 36-15 G-F ratio. His 2002 seems right in line with the past few years, and despite his advancing age, Leiter remains one of the top starters in baseball.

5554 PQS
Randy Johnson(1234abcxyz LPR): 4 W on a 34:7 K:BB in 30 IP with 22 H, 2 HR, and a 50-17 G-F ratio. He's a necessity for Challenge teams and anyone else that can afford his services.

545 PQS
Brandon Duckworth(23x LPR): 1 Win on a 30:6 K:BB in 19 IP with 13 H, 3 HR, and a 16-15 G-F ratio. His G-F isn't great, but those strikeouts look very nice for all 5x5 leagues.

535 PQS
A.J. Burnett(xyz LPR): 2 W on a 25:8 K:BB in 21.2 IP with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 24-21 G-F ratio. All these ratios look exceptional, so he's a definite trade target if you have any faith in the Marlins' bullpen.

Vicente Padilla(123 LPR): 2 W on a 21:6 K:BB in 20 IP with 14 H, 1 HR, and a 30-14 G-F ratio. I'm very impressed by the low OBA and 2+ G-F; all of these pitchers' statistics so far definitely support their solid PQS starts. He pitches tonight against Fogg.

5345 PQS
Roy Oswalt(123a LPR): 2 W on a 28:3 K:BB in 26 IP with 29 H, 2 HR, and a 30-26 G-F ratio. If he winds up with two starts next week, we're definitely adding him to our Challenge teams now that he's past his Coors' start. At last year's AFL Symposium, John Sickels said that he believes Oswalt will win at least 2 Cy Youngs as long as he stays healthy; I see no reason to dispute that assessment.

554 PQS
Jeff D'Amico(y LPR): 1 W on a 15:4 K:BB in 21 IP with 15 H, 0 HR, and a 24-20 G-F ratio. He's still not striking many batters out, which was a major factor in our apparent preseason undervaluation of his abilities, but he's also not allowing many baserunners at all. I'm still not willing to recommend him, but he's definitely showing good upside.

5544 PQS
Curt Schilling(134abcxyz LPR): 3 W on a 38:4 K:BB in 29 IP with 25 H, 2 HR, and a 28-24 G-F ratio. He seems to have overcome his early-season HR problems from last year, so there's no reason for him not to maintain this dominance throughout 2002.

5543 PQS
Matt Morris(123ac LPR): 4 W on a 23:8 K:BB in 26 IP with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 42-23 G-F ratio. After Randy and Schilling, he's likely the safest NL Challenge pitcher to own, especially as the Cardinals have a much better offense and bullpen than the Mets.

552 PQS
Ryan Dempster(3abxy LPR): 0 W on a 21:11 K:BB in 30 IP with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 26-22 G-F ratio. Dempster looks primed for a slump in consideration of his weak K rate and the rest of the Marlins. While he certainly deserves a win or two on these numbers, I think he's more likely to see a rising ERA than to immediately grab a couple wins. He pitches against Damian Moss and Atlanta tonight.

551 PQS
Shawn Estes(z LPR): 0 W on 1 15:7 K:BB in 18 IP with 18 H, 3 HR, and a 24-21 GF ratio. An elevated home run rate and overall weak IP/start keeps me very wary of a potentially dangerous pitcher to own. Until he shows more consistency over his next few starts, I see little reason to target him in any deal.

Other pitchers with all 4 or 5 starts:
445 PQS
Pedro Astacio(1acxz LPR): 3 W on 24:4 K:BB in 23 IP with 23 H, 2 HR, and a 25-28 G-F ratio. While he's the first pitcher today to have a G-F below 1, he also appears completely dominant this season. As long as his partial labrum tear doesn't worsen, he'll likely compete for the Cy this year. All 5 of the Mets starters have had incredible starts to this year, and Astacio has as much potential as Leiter now that he's escaped Coors.

54 PQS
Damian Moss(1.5 LPR): 0 W on 9:3 K:BB in 12 IP with 9 H, 2 HR, and a 21-10 G-F ratio as a starter. With the Braves in need of another lefty starter after trading Odalis Perez, Moss appears set to join the rotation. While some people might still expect a Millwood trade, with both Maddux and Glavine hitting free agency and the Braves unlikely to re-sign both of them, don't expect Atlanta to move any of their six starters. Next year, I expect their rotation to be Glavine, Millwood, Moss, Marquis, and someone from a group including John Ennis, Joey Dawley, Matt Belisle, and Jung Bong.

44 PQS
Randy Wolf(123abxy LPR): 0 W on a 11:2 K:BB in 10.2 IP with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 10-10 G-F ratio. Wolf has as much upside as any young lefty in the league, but he remains a burnout risk and is still building up his arm strength. I think he's a relatively safe acquisition, but I wouldn't give up more than someone like Estes to get him.

444 PQS
Josh Beckett(1.5 LPR): 0 W on a 15:6 K:BB in 17.2 IP with 16 H, 1 HR, and a 13-23 G-F ratio. He still has a great chance to win Rookie of the Year, but I see no reason to grab him in Challenge now even with a potential 2 start next week. The G-F ratio scares me, and his blister problems also worry me. He still might reach $20, although I don't consider him a particularly attractive acquisition at the moment unless his owner is sufficiently irritated with the blister that you can grab Beckett at a discount.

Darryl Kile(1abxy LPR): 0 W on a 12:4 K:BB in 17 IP with 14 H, 1 HR, and a 19-25 G-F ratio. The G-F again concerns me, but his skills are showing improvement across the board. While I'd like to see more strikeouts, he should start racking up some wins relatively soon.

Kazuhisa Ishii(1.5 LPR): 3 W on a 21:9 K:BB in 17.2 IP with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 20-13 G-F ratio. With two starts next week in Pittsburgh and Chicago, along with a very easy schedule for the next month, Ishii appears to be a very attractive buy even in Challenge leagues right now. You should certainly grab him if he's available in your regular rotisserie league, as he's missed three straight 5 scores by a total of .1 IP, 1 K, and 2 H. Considering his dominance in Coors, solid G-F ratio, and complete lack of homers, you should probably explore a potential trade for him this weekend if his owner is amenable.

Odalis Perez(No LPR): 1 W on a 14:1 K:BB in 20.2 IP with 13 H, 2 HR, and a 32-24 G-F ratio. He's making us look really bad for dropping him in favor of Brian Tollberg on one of our NL 4x4 teams, but I see no way for his success to continue. He'll start walking batters eventually because he hasn't shown great command over the last few years, and despite a nice schedule for the next several weeks like Ishii, Perez appears to have more downside than upside at the moment.

John Thomson(ax LPR): 2 W on a 15:2 K:BB in 19.2 IP with 23 H, 2 HR, and a 18-27 G-F ratio. I was hoping to finally be able to recommend a Rockies' starter, but our trend of never owning a Rockies' starter appears set to continue. While I still like Thomson's overall potential and would grab him in a second in any other ballpark, I'm concerned about his OBA and G-F, so see little reason to grab him when they spend six of their next ten series in Coors, including two straight weeks in May.

Internet Challenge

No starts: Schilling, Brown, Morris, Vazquez, Miller(DL)

Starters(6)
Randy Johnson: Sun:COL(Chacon)
Pedro Martinez: Fri:KC(George)
Greg Maddux: Sat:FLO(Burnett) or Sun:FLO(Olsen)
Mike Mussina: Fri:TOR(Prokopec)
Roger Clemens: Sun:TOR(Lyon)
Russ Ortiz: Sat:@HOU(Redding)
Kerry Wood: Sat:CIN(Dessens)
Brian Lawrence: Fri:@LA(Nomo)

Relievers(4)
Jason Isringhausen: 3 Road games at Milwaukee
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Home games vs. Colorado
Eddie Guardado: 3 Home games vs. Cleveland
Danys Baez: No Start
Jorge Julio: 3 Road games at Tampa Bay

Our choice is fairly simple among the starters as we'll take the six home starts over Ortiz in Houston and Lawrence against a hot Nomo at home. However we don't want to risk a Maddux start given his current health, and as we also need saves, we'll pick up Eric Gagne now in this league; LA has three home games against San Diego and Gagne is still pitching great. He'll be our sixth starting pitching for the weekend. Baez doesn't play so we'll stick with our closers.

Colorado is in Arizona for the weekend, leaving our four Rockies on the bench. Unfortunately we need to open up a roster spot for Gagne, and our only two real options are Juan Gonzalez and Wade Miller. We think Miller might still be useful while Gonzalez won't have much value for another few weeks, so we'll copy our move from DC by dropping Gonzalez for Gagne.

Given this allignment, we have 760 of cap space remaining for one offensive player, and our only options are our four Rockies. Juan Uribe is the only one that fits under the cap, and given his great year so far, we'll be happy with him against Arizona for the weekend.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 3b: April 19 - April 21

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	Toby Hall		320
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	David Ortiz		640
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Hank Blalock		500
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
OF	Barry Bonds		1830
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
OF	Jeremy Giambi		500
DH	Ryan Klesko		1300
DH	Juan Uribe		500

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Roger Clemens		1240
SP	Kerry Wood		1050
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Jason Isringhausen	1280
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

As I should finally have some free time tonight, I plan on finally updating Chicago Sports tomorrow prior to the beginning of the NFL draft, which should include the Bears' draft targets, evaluation of the Sox and Cubs' starts, a recap of the Bulls' season, and and discussion of the Blackhawks' playoff chances.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Target Phillies' starters in trade talks as Duckworth, Padilla, and even Wolf appear at least solid acquisitions now. I like their offense and they have some bullpen depth with Politte and Silva behind Mesa and Bottalico, so you might see good win totals here along with solid ratios.