Today's Fantasy Rx

We spent most of yesterday afternoon running errands, and while the most annoying development of the day was a sunburn from hanging my arm out the car window, I'm also certain that some of you might be mildly displeased with me for Jose Acevedo's outing yesterday. While taking the Acevedo hit on three of our teams, we also were rather irritated by a few other games.

Game Notes from 4.16.02: Brandon Lyon, Loss on 2:0 K:BB in 6 IP with 7 H and 2 HR, along with 6 ER; the only positive news here is that his G-F ratio was 10-6, but a cumulative 8.81 ERA hurts, even if we only own him in one place.

Brandon Duckworth, No Decision on 11:2 K:BB in 6 IP with 3 H and 1 HR; only 1 ER before Santiago, Bottalico, and Mesa combined to allow 6 ER in 2.2 IP. He needed 113 pitches for those 6 IP, but we would have liked the win for two of our teams.

Jorge Julio, Save on 1:0 K:BB in 1.2 IP with 0 H was nice for our Challenge teams, but then we had:

Ramiro Mendoza, Loss and Blown Save on 0:0 K:BB in 0 IP with 3 H and 1 HR, which cost us a win on five different teams from:

Roger Clemens, ND on 6:2 K:BB in 7 IP with 6 H and 1 HR. A decent start, but with relatively few other Challenge teams using Clemens, we missed a good opportunity here.

Nick Neugebauer, Loss on 4:4 K:BB in 6 IP with 3 H and 1 HR. We were running him on three different teams, and this was a relatively good outing. Unfortunately, Milwaukee's complete lack of offense is going to burn Neugebauer, Rusch, and Quevedo all year; even Figueroa might otherwise be a nice gamble, but they lack any real offensive threats aside from Sexson.

Chuck Finley, Loss on 0:1 K:BB in 1.2 IP with 7 H and 2 HR; 8 ER leaves him with a 9.39 ERA, and as we own him in on the same team with Brandon Lyon, we're going to be looking for ERA/WHIP help rather soon.

Rick Reed, ND on 1:3 K:BB in 3.1 IP with 7 H and 0 HR. I own him as one of my only two drafted starters in one league; John Burkett hasn't even managed a single inning for me, so at least my ERA/WHIP is being saved by some decent middle relievers.

One of the few pieces of good news was J.C. Romero, who had a 3:1 K:BB in 1.1 IP with 1 H and 0 HR; it's too bad that we only own him in 4x4 leagues.

Another was Randy Johnson, despite a rather pedestrian 5:1 K:BB in 7 IP with 8 H and 1 HR. We're definitely pleased with his fourth win, but we count on him for a significant number of strikeouts, and LaRussa stacked the order with right-handers while benching Drew, Edmonds, and Tino.

I'll get to Acevedo in a moment, but many of you are likely wondering what will happen in Texas after John Rocker's demotion. Here's a quick rundown of their remaining healthy relievers with at least four appearances:

RHP Steve Woodard, 6:2 K:BB in 5.2 IP with 4 H and 0 HR; 4.76 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

LHP Chris Michalak, 1:3 K:BB in 2.2 IP with 6 H and 0 HR; 6.75 ERA and 3.38 WHIP.

RHP Todd Van Poppel, 6:2 K:BB in 6.0 IP with 5 H and 1 HR; 7.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.

RHP Rudy Saenez, 5:6 K:BB in 5.1 IP with 9 H and 2 HR; 10.12 ERA and 2.81 WHIP.

RHP Dan Miceli, 2:2 K:BB in 5.2 IP with 10 H and 1 HR; 11.12 ERA and 2.21 WHIP.

Both Woodard and Van Poppel appear to be good gambles, so let's examine their G-F ratio.

		02	01	1997-2001
Woodard	1.6	1.32	1.29

Van Poppel	.50	.88	.84

We've heard rumors of almost everyone in the pen, including possibly Hideki Irabu, receiving a shot to close, Steve Woodard easily appears to be the best choice. His major problems in the past have been tiring late in the game and occasionally giving up too many homers.

As a reliever, Woodard has compiled these numbers over the last five years: 64:25 K:BB in 101 IP with 103 H and 9 HR. While you'd certainly like to see more strikeouts, I feel quite comfortable anointing him as the best bet for saves in the Texas bullpen, especially considering Van Poppel's very troublesome G-F ratio. Now Texas could also just screw around with a committee while waiting for Zimmerman to return, or they could trade for someone like Dave Veres, but Woodard at least won't hurt you and he appears to have great upside at the moment.

Now to examine what happened with Acevedo last night:

Cincinnati's Jose Acevedo in 2002, currently 2-1:

	IP	H	R/ER	BB/K	HR	G-F	Strikes/Pitches
4.4CHC	6	5	1/1	1/6	1	7-8	68/107

4.11PIT	5	6	5/4	3/2	1	6-9	68/104

4.16HOU	1.2	6	7/7	2/1	4	1-7	32/55

Total	12.2	17	13/12	6/9	6	14-24	168/266

	IP	H	R/ER	BB/K	HR	G-F	Strikes/Pitches
6.19MIL	4	4	6/6	2/4	3	5-7	49/74

6.24HOU	4	5	5/4	4/4	0	9-1	40/74

6.30CHC	7	5	1/1	2/5	0	7-10	67/105

Total	15	14	12/11	8/13	3	21-18	156/253

2001	96	101	61/58	34/68	17	1.05-1	N/A

Looking at the rest of the Reds' rotation, Acevedo's skills compare quite favorably with the other starters:

Starter		GS	IP	H	HR	BB	K	ERA
J. Hamilton	3	18	20	0	10	12	2.50
E. Dessens	3	16.2	16	1	7	11	2.70
J. Haynes	2	13.1	16	1	5	11	6.07
C. Reitsma	2	7.1	11	0	6	5	6.14
J. Acevedo	3	12.2	17	6	6	9	8.53

I'm not particularly impressed with any of these pitchers except for perhaps Jimmy Haynes and his acceptable command of 11:5 K:BB. Based on their careers to date, the only pitchers who I expect to be part of the next solid Reds' staff are Acevedo and perhaps Reitsma; the other three are veteran filler until some of the prospects mature.

Lance Davis likely would have been the Reds' fifth starter until his injury. He should be ready to rejoin the rotation in another couple of weeks, but neither Davis nor Reitsma are power pitchers; Davis hasn't hit 6 K:BB above AA and Reitsma hasn't managed that feat since A+ Sarasota.

The only impressive starter so far this year at AAA Louisville this year has been Brian Reith, with a 14:6 K:BB in 16.2 IP with 11 H and 1 HR. I expect him to replace Acevedo in the rotation on Sunday in Chicago against either Kerry Wood or Juan Cruz if Lieber has to miss a start. The Reds could turn to relievers Jim Brower or Jose Rijo, although both would likely be overmatched under the additional workload.

At AA Chattanooga, two prospects have posted nice numbers over their first three starts despite not impressing me in the past. Ricardo Aramboles has compiled a 15:6 K:BB in 18.1 IP with 15 H and 0 HR, while 1999 1st Round Pick Ty Howington has managed a 15:6 K:BB in 16.1 IP with 11 H and 2 HR. I think both need at least a half season each at AA and AAA, so the Reds shouldn't expect much help here this season.

Reith has a good chance of establishing himself in the Reds' rotation for the next few seasons if he can remain healthy and pitch effectively. His upside is similar to Acevedo and both should emerge as dependable middle-of-the-rotation starters by the second half.

Between the return of Davis from injury and Reith from the minors, I expect Acevedo to spend close to a month in Louisville. Either Hamilton or Haynes should have pitched himself off the team by that point, and if the Reds can grab a decent prospect for the overpriced Dessens, they'll be able to accommodate their younger pitchers along with an innings' eater. Scott Williamson may also return to the rotation after June, although considering his past arm troubles, I believe the Reds should leave in the bullpen as the probable successor to Graves.

Regarding Acevedo's horrible start yesterday, I'm sorry if he damaged your ERA and WHIP. He ran into a scorching hot Lance Berkman and was unable to overcome a couple of unlucky events. As Tim Sullivan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported last night,

With better breaks, Acevedo might have escaped Houston's first inning unscathed. Reds shortstop Barry Larkin went far to his right to field Craig Biggio's leadoff grounder, but he was unable to put anything on his throw. With one out, Acevedo got two quick strikes on Jeff Bagwell, but his 1-2 fastball failed to persuade plate umpire Bill Miller.

Bagwell walked. Berkman homered. Disaster dawned.

I see little sense in this unnecessarily punitive demotion. According to Bob Boone, again reported by the Enquirer,

"I've got my third hitter (Ken Griffey Jr.) and my fourth hitter (Sean Casey) out. We're going to do everything to hold the fort until they're back. We think we've got a good team. We're not going to suffer through things like we did last year."

"We told Jose that when he doesn't have his good stuff, he has to make adjustments and pitch a little," General Manager Jim Bowden said. "We don't have the luxury of having him learn to do that here."

Apparently no one told Reds' management that they don't move into their new stadium until next year. Teams are supposed to spend the last year in an old stadium testing young players and giving their best prospects time with their best coaches, who theoretically should be at the major league level. Cincy pitching coach Don Gullet is widely recognized as perhaps the best in baseball for rehab cases and he's done a great job in the bullpen with a relatively inexpensive cast of relievers over the past few years. Acevedo would likely benefit more from time with Gullet than in AAA with Mack Jenkins, and aside from the damage of this move to our roto teams, I don't see the Reds benefiting as their goal should be to develop a team that will be competitive next year.

We certainly don't think almost anyone should be releasing him from their roto teams now. We'll reserve or taxi him on our three NL teams, and we'll look forward to when he returns to the majors, since we expect almost no one else will be interested in him at that time.

Updated Prediction for Jose Acevedo:

IP	W	S	K	ERA	WHIP	$4x4	$5x5
155	8	0	123	4.44	1.35	3	4

Today's Fantasy Rx: Grab Steve Woodard in any league where you need a reliever. He may not win the job officially for another week or two, but we've always liked him in the past and believe he could have a very surprising Jeff Fasssero-esque couple of weeks.