Today's Fantasy Rx

Our weekly Sporting News issue showed up yesterday. TSN appears to be the first weekly magazine with a fantasy baseball column. Either they were running low on articles or Mark Bonavita impressed an editor, but either way they gave him a half page, minus the obligatory photos of both Mark and Roy Oswalt.

His focus is on breakout players and "what to look for". Here's how he begins the last third of his article:

Pitchers: Find players who are above average in at least two categories - control, velocity, ability to throw breaking pitches, etc. Also, concentrate on "performance stats," such as strikeout-to-walk ratio (ideally 2-to-1 or better), strikeouts (at least six per nine innings) and hits (under one an inning) and homers allowed (under one per nine innings), instead of ERA and wins.

Now those particular numbers look very familiar to me, and I suspect they will to other readers of BaseballHQ.com. They just happen to be the exact specifications for Shandler's LIMA plan, and while I certainly believe that they should be the approximate industry standard guidelines for pitching talent, I can't help but feel that TSN is unfairly ripping off a great concept from a less known source. We may discuss concepts from other website all the time here, but we make every effort to give proper credit. As I haven't seen mass discussion of the LIMA guidelines almost anywhere on ESPN or elsewhere in the mainstream media until now, I have yet another reason to detest TSN. While their team and player blurbs are occasionally useful, they should at least hire an editor that knows every player, so we don't suffer through more mistakes like last week's "Tom Clement" and "Mark Pryor".

We own Joel Pineiro at $5 in an AL 5x5. Like many of you, we were unhappy with his demotion to the bullpen until we looked at the numbers a little more closely.

Due to the Mariners' April schedule, their fifth starter is only scheduled for three starts this month. Halama made one against Anaheim, and I expect he's schedule to start tomorrow in Texas. While they might also need him against Anaheim on the 23rd, this move allows Piniella to use Pineiro at his leisure.

The Mariners only play Anaheim, Oakland, Texas, the Yankees, and the White Sox until March 7th. Considering this rather difficult early schedule against other strong AL offenses, I expect all the starters except perhaps Garcia to get shelled once or twice. Pineiro and Franklin can likely split the long relief time, leaving them both eligible for more victories, albeit vultured ones, than Halama is likely to find as a starter.

So while we'll hurt a little from the lack of low ERA/WHIP innings and also miss the extra strikeouts, as long as Piniella rightfully returns Pineiro to the rotation in time for a home start against Boston on May 11th, his value might even increase due to the extra potential wins.

Piniella listed the reason for the move as a way to get another power arm into the pen, partially to replace the traded Jose Paniagua and the injured Norm Charlton. Unfortunately, his rationale neglects to recognize that Pat Gillick signed Shigetoshi Hasegawa to replace Paniagua, and the rest of the pen is identical to last year. Sasaki closes, Rhodes and Nelson handle setup work, and Franklin covers the longer outings. As Halama isn't a true situational lefthander and NRIs like Brian Fitzgerald and Matt Jarvis can't adequately fill the role, expect to see a trade around the second week in May for an experienced LOOGY (John Sickels' term for Lefty One Out GuY). Based on Gillick's old Blue Jays connections, I fully expect it to be Dan Plesac as Ricciardi is looking to add power arms to the Jays' system, and Seattle can deal someone like Justin Kaye or Aaron Taylor, a Daily Rx favorite from Spring Training that the Mariners allowed to close five games in Arizona.

The most recent announcement out of Montreal is that Matt Herges and Graeme Lloyd will share the closing duties. I would be quite surprised if this scenario lasts more than a week or two given the respective performances of the Expos' relievers this year.

Matt Herges: 7:3 K:BB in 8.1 IP over 6 G with 11 H and 1 HR; 3.24 ERA and 1.68 WHIP.

Graeme Lloyd: 2:3 K:BB in 6 IP over 5 G with 7 H and 1 HR; 7.50 ERA and 1.67 WHIP.

Britt Reames: 8:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 8 H and 1 HR; 11.81 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.

Scott Stewart: 8:0 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 4 G with 4 H and 0 HR; .00 ERA and .63 WHIP.

T.J. Tucker: 5:2 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 6 H and 0 HR; 3.60 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.

Based on their actual statistical performances, Herges and Lloyd are the worst choices of this group. Stewart has the most consistent record, having posted MLEs that include a 2.2-3.0 K:BB, 5.9-7.4 K/9, and 0.4-1.0 HR/9 over the last three years. Lloyd wasn't much better than any of those numbers even before he missed all of 2000. Lloyd's only real advantage is that he managed close to 2 groundballs for every flyball while Stewart's G-F ratio is close to even, but Stewart's sample size is also much smaller.

After Reames was moved to relief last year, he managed an excellent 36:8 K:BB in 31 IP with 32 H and 5 HR. His G-F ratio is even very similar to that of Herges. The only think likely stopping Robinson from turning to Reames is that 11.81 ERA, created by allowing 3 ER in each of his first two appearances. Unfortunately, Herges' 11-3 G-F ratio is even better than Reames' 2-1, so while I suspect that a change is forthcoming in the next few weeks, Herges will have to blow a few saves before one is required.

If either Reames or Stewart is available in your league and you can stash them on your bench for a few weeks, you should definitely attempt to FAAB them at your first opportunity.

Florida is the other team whose bullpen situation is fairly in flux. As of a day or two ago, Jeff Torborg has demoted Braden Looper back to setup work and Vladimir Nunez will close. We wholeheartedly support this switch, based on both historical performances and our owning of Nunez in three places, but was this the correct decision?

Vlad Nunez: 2:4 K:BB in 6 IP over 5 G with 8 H and 1 HR; 4.50 ERA and 2.00 WHIP.

Braden Looper: 6:6 K:BB in 5 IP over 6 G with 9 H and 1 HR; 7.20 ERA and 3.00 WHIP.

Michael Tejera: 3:3 K:BB in 3.2 IP over 5 G with 3 H and 0 HR; 2.45 ERA and 1.64 WHIP.

Vic Darensbourg: 4:5 K:BB in 1.2 IP over 5 G with 1 H and 0 HR; 5.40 ERA and 3.60 WHIP.

Kevin Olsen: 4:4 K:BB in 6.0 IP over 3 G with 8 H and 2 HR; 6.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP.

Gary Knotts: 2:3 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 4 G with 4 H and 1 HR; 7.71 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

All of these choices are bad, but at least Torborg made the right selection based on historical performance. Looper does have over a 2-1 edge over Nunez in career G-F ratio, but most of Nunez's statistic is from his work as a starter. This year, Nunez has a 14-8 G-F ratio, and while I don't have all of Looper's data available, he's managed a 4-9 G-F ratio in his last four appearances.

I've seen a couple of other columnists advise holding onto Looper because this contest is likely to remain unsettled. Unless Nunez really falls apart, I only see one wild card in the situation.

Blaine Neal at Calgary(AAA): 2:3 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 4 G with 6 H and 1 HR; 13.50 ERA and 2.70 WHIP.

Calgary has a few other decent minor league veterans like Toby Borland and Kennie Steenstra, although I would be very surprised to see either one closing at the major league level at any time. Lefty Nate Teut, acquired from the Cubs for Jesus Sanchez, is pitching relatively well, but if Florida can't find a solution from among its top three right-handed relievers, I expect they'll either deal a prospect for a top setup guy, or even just convert a starter to closing.

If anyone in your league has tired of Nunez, you might want to consider acquiring him; otherwise, you probably want to stay away from this situation.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We just wanted to remind everyone that taxes are due on Monday, so if you haven't had time because of your fantasy drafts, you should probably start them soon.