Today's Fantasy Rx

If you're interested in the summary article covering the previous ten reviews, please click here. The Major League Baseball 2002 review is archived here.

We continue our Spring Magazine reviews with:

The Sporting News Baseball Preview Issue

5/10 points for Presentation.
TSN has definitely improved by going to full-color semi-glossy for every issue fairly recently, but the quality still isn't close to SI. The team reviews are inconsistent; some are oriented horizontally while some are vertical. There's also not a single page that summarizes all of their predictions.

4/10 points for Table of Contents and included content.
The TOC doesn't even break out the Baseball Preview articles into a separate box; it just groups them in with the rest of the magazine. At least they provide page numbers for four different "articles", including the team previews. All TSN feature articles are nearly always available on-line, so even though Ken Rosenthal had a fairly interesting parody piece in a season he'd like to see, I'd already read it on Yahoo a few days earlier. They have a couple small sections where they ask players "Hardball Questions". When asked if he preferred a 1-0 game or a 11-9, Mark Grace displayed his lack of baseball history by responding "11-9 is not the way Abner wanted it".

Responding to "What's the most exciting play in the game", Jeter answered "Most people would say a home run. I would say a defensive play." Mussina followed that with "The Jeter backhand (flip)."

For the team reviews, they've done a fairly good job of anticipating starting lineups and rotations, but the actual analysis is somewhat weak.

While not in this issue, TSN began the 2002 run of "The Closer", a weekly column from now-Rockies' reliever Todd Jones, in last week's magazine. Jones offers a rather interesting perspective on several issues in the game, and his columns last year before and after his trade to the Twins were some of the best first-person writing by a player I've seen in years.

0/10 points for describing the league for their main rankings.
They almost never run anything about fantasy baseball outside of their main fantasy issue every spring.

8/50 points for specific player analysis, 5 points for each player as follows.

3/25 points for Position Players:

1. Jeremy Giambi, Outfielder, Oakland Athletics:
  1. Only now entering his peak years.
  2. Most of his averages have been trending upwards for the past few seasons.
  3. He's better at his age than his brother Jason.
  4. Injury questions: He's never had more than 2001's 371 AB in a season.
  5. Playing time question: The Athletics have several other quality 1B/LF/DH.

1/5 points for Giambi. A mention of his high OBP gets them a point for #2.

2. Shawn Green, Outfielder, Los Angeles:
  1. He should stay above the 40/110 level regardless of a Sheffield trade.
  2. He's capable of a 45/35 season if given the opportunity.
  3. He just entered his peak power years.
  4. He almost never misses a game, so you can count on high counting number totals across the board.
  5. Los Angeles expects him to anchor their offense despite a career .353 OBP.

0/5 points for Green. Only mention is "Can he hit 49 HRs sans Sheffield?"

3. Todd Hundley, Catcher, Chicago Cubs:
  1. Expect 30+ HR if he can find 400+ AB.
  2. Don't expect him to find 400+ AB unless he starts off strong.
  3. He should reach at least 80 RBI hitting behind Sosa, McGriff, and Alou.
  4. Don't expect him to exceed a .260 BA.
  5. He's young enough to rebound into a typical catcher's late-career power spike.

1/5 points for Hundley. A reference to his great September HR rate nets them a point for #1.

4. Doug Mientkiewicz, First Baseman, Minnesota Twins:
  1. He's 27 and entering his third full season; expect a more impressive breakout than 2001.
  2. His RBI will increase as Rivas and Guzman's OBPs increase.
  3. His runs will increase with probable improvements by Ortiz, Jones, and whomever earns the RF job.
  4. He'll be lucky to hit .300, but .290 is quite reasonable.
  5. With Tom Kelly gone, he's the unquestioned starter for the next couple of years.

0/5 points for Mientkiewicz. They only discussed his defense and BA vs. LHP.

5. Jose Ortiz, Second Baseman, Colorado Rockies:
  1. He's receiving his first uncontested full-time job going into Spring Training.
  2. His 2000 MLEs were outstanding, even for the Pacific Coast League.
  3. He's only turning 25 this year, so he's likely to post great 5x5 numbers in the future.
  4. Colorado wants to bat him 2nd, decreasing his RBI opportunities, but potentially increasing his runs scored ahead of Helton and Larry Walker.
  5. If he struggles, they might give Brent Butler a shot at the job.

1/5 points for Ortiz. They slot him second in the order, earning #4.

5/25 points for Pitchers:

1. Paul Abbott, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners:
  1. He had 17 wins because he received the most run support in the majors in 2001.
  2. He's allowed over 20 HR in each of the last two seasons in under 180 IP both years.
  3. Since he's already 34, he's now on the downside of his career.
  4. His K:BB has been quite bad at a combined 218:167 over the last two years.
  5. Seattle has a cadre of young pitching soon to replace him.

0/5 points for Abbott. Unfortunately they only mentioned that he won 10 games in the second half without discussing the fantastic run support he received.

2. Matt Anderson, Closer, Detroit Tigers:
  1. Aside from one bad April outing, his ERA would have been well below 4.00.
  2. He pitched quite well as a full-time closer last year.
  3. There's little competition in the Tigers' bullpen.
  4. He doesn't appear to be an injury risk.
  5. The Tigers have a weak offense and weak starting pitching, decreasing his potential save opportunities.

2/5 points for Anderson. They manage to highlight #2 and #3.

3. Curt Schilling, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks:
  1. He's unlikely to reach 20 wins again in 2002 because of a probable downturn in Arizona's offense.
  2. He led the league in HR, so his ERA could rise if his OOBP ever slips.
  3. He's 35, but appears to be aging nicely like his fellow ace and World Series MVP.
  4. While he's only broken 190 strikeouts three times in his career, he struck out over 290 batters in those other three years. Expect another season of close to 300.
  5. While he appears recovered from past injuries, he could hit the DL quickly, so monitor his pitch counts for overuse.

1/5 points for Schilling. An allusion to #3 scores them one point.

4. Jason Schmidt, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants:
  1. He has $20+ potential when healthy.
  2. He appears to be both healthy and secure after signing a long-term deal with the Giants.
  3. He struck out almost a batter per inning last season.
  4. He's never finished the year with an ERA under 4.07, which he's reached twice.
  5. The Giants have a deep and talented bullpen, so he won't need to pitch deep into games.

1/5 points for Schmidt. As they briefly discuss Schmidt's potential once his groin injury heals, I'll give them credit for #1.

5. Ugueth Urbina, Closer, Boston Red Sox:
  1. He appears fully recovered from his arm troubles.
  2. Posted a 2.25 ERA and a 32:3 K:BB after his trade to Boston.
  3. The Red Sox want Lowe to start, eliminating his primary competition.
  4. He'll be a free agent after this season, so the Red Sox are open to trading him under the right circumstances.
  5. He can dominate when healthy, and the Red Sox have a good team surrounding him.

1/5 points for Urbina. They mention his extremely low HR rate after joining Boston, so I'll give them credit for #2.

4/5 points for editing.
I was somewhat surprised that I didn't find more errors in this issue. It's too bad I can't deduct for their most recent mag, because in the Cubs' section, I was treated to a comment on new starter "Tom Clement", as well as phenom "Mark Pryor".

9/10 points for the accompanying website.
Once again, their website offers practically everything included with the magazine, so you really don't need to purchase this baseball preview if you have the time to look over their site. Their daily player comments, while not up to the level of Rotoworld, Rotowire, or Rototimes, are still are a worthy addition to most owners' daily rounds.

1/5 points for creativity and innovation.
While asking the players specific questions about the state of the game adds some worthwhile commentary to the issue, I don't find TSN to ever be particularly creative or innovative. Their fantasy writers seem geared towards the most shallow leagues in existence, and they show little ability to recognize sleepers, often ignoring solid skills' sets altogether. Aside from those daily player notes, I see no need to read any of the regular fantasy articles on their site.

Overall ranking: 27/100 points; F on 39% (27/70) ranks them 11th between Major League Baseball yearbook and the disaster of Major League Baseball 2002.

While I wasn't expecting much from this issue considering the effort put into the two baseball annuals, I also didn't find this magazine to be a complete waste of time. It's probably not worth a special purchase, but you should also probably at least glance through it if you're a subscriber.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Don't jump the gun on player moves; unless a player is injured, there's little reason to even consider dropping anyone for another week or two. The only exception would be if you can add a superior player due to recent call-ups or the impatience of someone else in your league.