Today's Fantasy Rx

The 2002 NL Tout Wars draft was held on March 17th. Due to finishing projections and the other articles from the past two weeks, we haven't had a chance to review it until now. With most shadowdraft deadlines rapidly approaching if not already past, I thought I'd spend a couple days reviewing the rosters as I did for LABR back in March.

Last year, Gene McCaffrey and John Menna of Wise Guy Baseball won Tout-NL with 106 points, 6 ahead of John Muckler of Rototimes and 13 ahead of Sandlot Shrink's John Coleman. McCaffrey didn't finish with less than 8 out of 13 points in any category, so I'll be looking for similarly well-rounded teams in this draft. Please refer to the National League Tout Wars rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Ben Brown and Mike Elliot
Site: Rotoradio
$ Left: $0.
Split: $182H/$78P = 70/30.
Reserve roster: Salomon Torres, Ron Villone, Seth Etherton, Joe Nathan, Nelson Cruz, and Pete Harnisch.
First player purchased: John Smoltz, $22.
Last player purchased: Tony Eusebio, $5.

Nice pick: John Smoltz; he should easily be one of the top 3 closers in the league.
Top sleeper: Nick Neugebauer, $3; if he stays healthy all year, he might win Rookie of the Year while approaching 200 strikeouts.
Potential bust: While Bud Smith($12) is an obvious target, I expect he'll be back up relatively soon; I'm more concerned about the possibility of Ben Sheets($10) only earning a buck or two.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Salomon Torres(R)! and Pete Harnisch(R).
Early good luck: Greg Norton($5) may wind up in a platoon at 3B with Zeile, and Jose Jimenez($14) stayed secure in his closing job.
Early bad luck: Tony Eusebio($5) was released, Smith was sent down, and Dante Bichette($4) retired.
Category to trade: COR power, with Sexson($25), Nevin($27), Dave Bell($4), and Norton.

Even with holes at catcher and outfield, they have a great foundation with Sexson, Nevin, EY($21), Reese($13), Womack($17), Berkman($28), and Burnitz($16). They have six young and talented starters, at least half of whom should earn a nice profit, and they're also set in saves with Smoltz and Jimenez.

Summary: They have both the talent and depth necessary to challenge for first of they can avoid injury.

Owner: Mark Bonavita
Site: The Sporting News
$ Left: $8.
Split: $180H/$72P = 71/29.
Reserve roster: Dennis Tankersley, Grant Roberts, Junior Spivey, Brandon Phillips, Jose Paniagua, and Dave Kelton.
First player purchased: Trevor Hoffman, $25.
Last player purchased: Brent Butler, $4.

Nice pick: Juan Uribe, $18; he'll break $20 and head to $30 once he rediscovers his speed from the minors.
Top sleeper: Kerry Robinson, $2, is very underrated considering his speeds skills, but Kurt Ainsworth, $3, has been practically ignored and could easily post $10 this year.
Potential bust: Benny Agbayani, $15; he'll need to find significant playing time to achieve this value.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Dennis Tankersley, Brandon Phillips, and Dave Kelton.
Early good luck: Brent Butler($4) made the majors and Odalis Perez($5) secured a starting job.
Early bad luck: Jeff Fassero($6) lost his save chances with the Alfonseca acquisition and Corky Miller($1) failed to unseat Jason LaRue.
Category to trade: Top shortstops, with Uribe and Rich Aurilia($25).

I see no reason to draft Mike Matheny($2) in any league whatsoever as he has the potential to severely harm your BA. He has a couple nice pitching sleepers in Ainsworth, Brian Lawrence($9), and even Grant Roberts(R), but I'm quite concerned about his overall ERA and WHIP; his strikeouts also look fairly weak.

Summary: He has a relatively strong offense but will need career years from Sean Casey($23), Scott Rolen($25), and Brian Giles($29) to finish in the money.

Owner: John Muckler and Scott Wilderman
Site: Rototimes
$ Left: $0.
Split: $172H/$88P = 66/34.
Reserve roster: Luis Pineda, Todd Stottlemyre, Mike Trombley, Blaine Neal, Tomas Perez, and Ryan Jensen
First player purchased: Sean Burroughs, $13.
Last player purchased: Brett Prinz, $2.

Nice pick: Larry Walker, $30; he should earn this even if he misses his customary 20+ games, but he'll head towards $40+ if he manages to stay healthy.
Top sleeper: Albie Lopez, $3; I've seen very little positive commentary about him, but I see no reason why he can't post double-digit value as the Braves' new and younger John Burkett.
Potential bust: Chad Fox, $12, has always had injury problems, but Pedro Astacio's($15) rotator cuff could go at any time, and I don't like him at more than $10.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Todd Stottlemyre.
Early good luck: The Alfonseca trade should give Blaine Neal a chance to close at some point this year and Ryan Jensen is starting while Schmidt's out.
Early bad luck: Jason Schmidt($13) will miss close to a month with groin troubles, Wiki Gonzalez($5) is out for two months with a broken bone in his left wrist, Tyler Houston($4) is losing PT to Ron Belliard, Mike Trombley was cut, and Chad Fox will miss at least half the year.
Category to trade: Strikeouts with Schilling($28), Astacio, Schmidt, Lopez, Tollberg($3), and Jensen.

They drafted a fairly deep team that should allow them to deal a starter to grab some saves. I like the depth of the offense as most of the players drafted are decent bets to meet or exceed their salaries. While spending $36 on Jenkins and Hammonds seems excessive considering their injury problems, I see no reason why both can't meet these prices in part-time work.

Summary: As their only problem category is saves, I expect they'll be able to finish in the first division.

Owner: Irwing Zwilling and Lenny Melnick
Site: MLB Radio
$ Left: $0.
Split: $184H/$76P = 71/29.
Reserve roster: Denny Neagle, Julian Tavarez, Jose Guillen, Alex Sanchez, Pablo Ozuna, and Mike Fetters.
First player purchased: Bobby Abreu, $33 (1st overall nomination).
Last player purchased: Deivi Cruz, $1.

Nice pick: Shawn Green, $33; is the most consistent of their top players.
Top sleeper: Alex Sanchez, R, could push $10 of value if he continues to start a few times a week in Milwaukee.
Potential bust: Todd Hollandsworth, $20; he'll need more than 400 AB to clear this salary, and I don't expect him to see that much PT.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Guillermo Mota.
Early good luck: Mike DeJean, $1, should get first crack at the Milwaukee closing job and Sanchez has been starting over Stairs and Ochoa for the Brewers.
Early bad luck: The trade of Mota to the Dodgers will leave him in the minors for much of the year.
Category to trade: Starting pitching, with great strikeout sources in Vazquez($24), Oswalt($24), Glavine($14), Bere($5), as well as supplementary pitchers like Pavano($5), Tavarez; even Denny Neagle might contribute under some circumstances.

Zwilling and Melnick applied a balanced Stars & Scrubs' strategy, hitting at $33 (Green and Abreu) and pitching at $24(Vazquez and Oswalt). Surrounding these stars with a mix of developing players(Beltre($19) and Burrell($21)) and rebounding veterans(Alfonzo($20), Karros($11), and Glavine($14)) gives them an excellent core with which they can remain competitive.

Summary: They should be able to pick up a cheap closer from a strikeout-desperate team for someone like Bere, giving them the saves' boost they need to finish in the money.

Owner: Charlie Wiegert
Site: CDM Sports
$ Left: $0.
Split: $166H/$94P = 64/36.
Reserve roster: Jeff Shaw, Jimmy Anderson, Pedro Feliz, Darren Dreifort, Hee Seop Choi, and Dave Mlicki.
First player purchased: Robb Nen, $25.
Last player purchased: Ray King, $1 (last player nominated).

Nice pick: Cliff Floyd, $27; he'll earn this in less than 500 AB and could approach $40 if he stays healthy all year.
Top sleeper: (tie) Jeff Shaw and Darren Dreifort, either of whom could rack a dozen saves in the second half.
Potential bust: Vladimir Guerrero, $37, may be the only healthy quality hitting on the Expos, and his RBI, Runs, and SB will likely all fall from last year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Angel Pena($1) and Hee Seop Choi.
Early good luck: Ausmus' injury problems should mean more PT for Zaun($2), Durazo's injury means more time for Delucci($1), and Stynes($4) will start while Mueller's out.
Early bad luck: Pena($1) missed his chance to backup Santiago, Bobby Hill($6) was unable to unseat DeShields, and Jeff Shaw decided not to sign anywhere for now.
Category to trade: Saves, with Nen($25), Strickland($14), King($1), Spooneybarger($1), Mantei($1), and potentially Shaw and Dreifort all appearing to be solid bullpen options at some point this season.

His starting pitching is fairly shallow and very unbalanced with only Jimmy Anderson to compliment Cardinals Morris($22), Kile($17), and Williams($12). With the exception of Floyd, I don't expect any of his $10+ offensive players to turn profits. He drafted significant speed potential but will need to convert someone like Furcal($25) or Glanville($13) into a couple of bats if he's to stay with the pack in HR, RBI, and Runs.

Summary: A deep bullpen leaves him short on salary for both starters and offense; only a couple great trades will allow him to finish in the money.

Owner: Matt Carter and Mike Vogel
Site: USA Stats
$ Left: $3.
Split: $194H/$63P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Britt Reames, John Thomson, Chad Hermanson, Masato Yoshii, Greg Colbrunn, and Kevin Olsen.
First player purchased: Sammy Sosa, $38.
Last player purchased: Tomo Ohka, $1.

Nice pick: Sammy Sosa, $38; the safest power source in the game.
Top sleeper: Kevin Olsen, R, could post double-digit value once he steals Tavarez's rotation job.
Potential bust: Matt Stairs, $10; he might not find enough PT to earn half this much.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Jose Canseco, $4.
Early good luck: Truby($5) is starting while Tatis is again injured, Belliard($5) may have secured a platoon role at third for Milwaukee, and Jimy Williams' mixed lineups will give Brian L. Hunter($1) plenty of AB.
Early bad luck: Stairs has already lost playing time to Sanchez, Canseco was cut, Chen($7) has no rotation spot, Greg Colbrunn's DL stint ruined his chance at 3B PT, and Chad Hermanson's on the DL.
Category to trade: Power, with Sosa, Piazza($26), Klesko($31), and Trammell($14).

A more balanced stars and scrubs' strategy leaves them with few holes and several established studs. I'm concerned about their starting but they should grab vultured wins from Dotel($6) and Kline($1), leaving them only vulnerable in strikeouts.

Summary: While they weren't able to draft much depth, I still expect them to remain competitive for the entire season.

So now that I've critiqued these thirteen rosters, I'll offer my picks for the top finishers. With only perhaps the exception of Patton & Kreutzer, I expect the other six teams to finish in the top 6. I believe Ben Brown and Mike Elliot drafted a balanced roster that should insure a high finish, likely including a Tout title. Zwilling & Melnick are probably the favorites for second, but I also like Bikales and Gottfried, Muckler & Wilderman, McCaffrey & Menna, and Carter & Vogel.

All these teams are fairly closely bunched, and for the most part, I liked the drafting of these reserve rosters much better than in LABR. Very few picks were wasted on rookies unlikely to contribute this year while several decent middle relievers and starting gambles were drafted in the late rounds. I'm definitely looking forward to examining the results at the end of the year.

Tomorrow I'll post and discuss our NL Tout Shadowdraft roster.

Pitching performances that impressed me from 4.3.02 and 4.4.02:

Mike Williams, Save on 2:0 K:BB in 1 IP with 0 H; only batted ball was a groundout.

A.J. Burnett, Win on 9:4 K:BB in 7.2 IP with 5 H and 0 HR.

Vicente Padilla, Win on 7:1 K:BB in 6 IP with 3 H and 1 HR.

Jason Johnson, Loss on 6:1 K:BB in 7.2 IP with 6 H and 1 HR.

Kerry Wood, Win on 10:4 K:BB in 5 IP with 3 H and 0 HR.

Jesus Colome, Win on 0:1 K:BB in 2 IP with 1 H and 0 HR; 6/6 outs on batted balls were grounders.

Takaki Nomura, 2:0 K:BB in 1 IP with 0 H; 8/10 pitches were strikes; only batted ball was a groundout.

Dan Reichert, Loss on 8:2 K:BB in 7 IP with 6 H and 0 HR; 9 of 12 outs on batted balls were grounders.

Steve Kline, 1:0 K:BB in 1 IP with 0 H; only 2 batted balls were groundouts.

Ryan Rupe, 7:0 K:BB in 7 IP with 3 H and 0 HR.

Doug Davis, Win on 5:2 K:BB in 7 IP with 7 H and 0 HR; 11/16 outs on batted balls were groundouts.

Roy Halladay, Win on 8:0 K:BB in 8 IP with 5 H and 0 HR; 74/94 pitches were strikes.

Octavio Dotel, 2:0 K:BB in 1 IP with 0 H; 9/9 pitches were strikes; only batted ball was a groundout.

Jeff Fassero, 2:0 K:BB in 1.1 IP with 0 H; only 2 batted balls were groundouts.

Jose Acevedo, Win on 6:1 K:BB in 6 IP with 5 H and 1 HR.

Jason Marquis, Win on 8:3 K:BB in 6 IP with 5 H and 1 HR.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you run any sort of player list anywhere on the web, especially if you're entering draft results, please find someone who knows how to spell every player's name. LABR was guilty of a few problems, but the Tout spreadsheet has numerous errors, including "Readling", "Brussard", "Grudzelanik", "Rameirez", "Liebenthal", "Baernard", "Alcantra", "Encarcion", "Fog", "Carrera", "Vallone", "Neugenbauer", "Paniegua", "Astascio", "Machowik", "Colburnn", and "Horry, K", completely indecipherable until we were reminded by a reader of Kevin Orie.