Today's Fantasy Rx

The 2002 NL Tout Wars draft was held on Sunday March 17th. Due to finishing projections and the other articles from the past two weeks, we haven't had a chance to review it until now. With most shadowdraft deadlines rapidly approaching if not already past, I thought I'd spend a couple days reviewing the rosters as I did for LABR back in March.

Last year, Gene McCaffrey and John Menna of Wise Guy Baseball won Tout-NL with 106 points, 6 ahead of John Muckler of Rototimes and 13 ahead of Sandlot Shrink's John Coleman. McCaffrey didn't finish with less than 8 out of 13 points in any category, so I'll be looking for similarly well-rounded teams in this draft. Please refer to the National League Tout Wars rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Gene McCaffrey and John Menna, defending champion
Site: Wise Guy Baseball
$ Left: $2.
Split: $188H/$70P = 73/27.
Reserve roster: Vlad Nunez, Jeremy Fikac, Cliff Politte, Mike Matthews, John Riedling, and Jose Rijo.
First player purchased: Todd Helton, $38.
Last player purchased: Al Martin, $1.

Nice pick: Juan Pierre, $31; we value him as the top NL player this year, so this is at least $5-10 under value.
Top sleeper: Vladimir Nunez, R; at the time of the draft, he was Florida's best shot at closing if Alfonseca was dealt; considering they also drafted Alfonseca, the pick looks even better now.
Potential bust: Craig Biggio, $17; he might not have too much left at age 36.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Probably Carlos Henandez($1), Al Martin($1), and Derek Bell($1).
Early good luck: Nunez should close with the Alfonseca trade; Politte(R) might wind up as Philly's top setup guy.
Early bad luck: Bill Mueller($5) is still injured and Mark Loretta($5) has no starting job.
Category to trade: Pitching, specifically saves with three closers (Alfonseca, Nunez, and Mesa($18)

While I really like the upside of players like Helton, Pierre, Drew, Preston Wilson, and Ausmus, I'm concerned about depth on offense for all the counting categories. Their pitching could be deep and talented, and Fikac and Riedling could mature into top setup guys soon. This team definitely has great potential if they keep rotating their pitchers as planned, but they'll need to move a closer for more offense soon.

Summary: With a couple of good trades, they should finish comfortably in the money.

Owner: Rob Leibowitz
Site: Rotoheaven
$ Left: $2.
Split: $172H/$86P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Chin-Feng Chen, Jake Peavy, Jose Acevedo, Ben Broussard, Dave Williams, and Adam Everett.
First player purchased: Maddux, $26.
Last player purchased: Jack Wilson, $1.

Nice pick: Barry Bonds, $34; a fair price for someone headed to 70 again.
Top sleeper: Glendon Rusch, $9; I wouldn't be surprised if he doubled this price by the end of the season.
Potential bust: Alex Ochoa, $16; his playing time is far from guaranteed.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chin-Feng Chen and Ben Broussard.
Early good luck: Adam Everett won the HOU SS job, and he's a better MIF option than Jack Wilson.
Early bad luck: Vidro's still hurting, and Jason Lane didn't win a job in Houston.
Category to trade: Top starters, with Maddux, Lieber($16), Rusch, and Shane Reynolds($4).

While he drafted solid players for the most part, I don't see many position players likely to exceed their price other than Bonds and Damian Miller($7). His pitching is strong and deep, and Jason Isringhausen($22) should have a great year; I also approve of picking up Acevedo in the reserve round. However, I'm concerned about his offensive depth, and outside of his stars, I don't have much faith in his offense.

Summary: He has enough pitching talent to deal a couple guys while remaining competitive, though he'll have to make a move to add some power to finish in the first division.

Owner: John Coleman
Site: Sandlot Shrink
$ Left: $0.
Split: $169H/$91P = 65/35.
Reserve roster: Bobby J. Jones, Ryan Christenson, Josias Manzanillo, Devon White, Tom Lampkin, and Abraham Nunez.
First player purchased: Mike Lieberthal, $11.
Last player purchased: Donovan Osborne, $1.

Nice pick: Brad Wilkerson, $4; now that he's won the LF job, he could quadruple this price fairly easily.
Top sleeper: Mark Prior, $4; if he's up any time before September, he should earn this by the end of the year.
Potential bust: Erubiel Durazo, $13; he's likely to miss several weeks and should lose power when he returns.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Ryan Christenson and Devon White.
Early good luck: Braden Looper($7) will at least be given a chance to close for Florida.
Early bad luck: Ben Petrick($9) lost his starting job, Prior got sent down even with a good spring, Farnsworth($12) lost his closing job to Alfonseca, and Randy Wolf's($14) already injured.
Category to trade: Young and promising starting pitchers, with Wolf, Prior, Beckett($16), Armas($10), and Russ Ortiz($16).

Aside from Wilkerson, he also picked up great sleeper offense in Lugo($9), Lankford($8), Patterson($6), and Brady Clark($1). Between Farnsworth, Looper, and Danny Graves($12) he should be fine on saves. While Luis Gonzalez($31) certainly should approach his price, I have more concerns about Aramis Ramirez($25), Jose Ortiz($20), and Daryle Ward($17), none of whom I can see outperforming these values.

Summary: His reserve list needs several changes, but this is a balanced 23-man roster, only perhaps lacking a little speed. Moving someone like Wolf for a speedy MIF might pay great dividends, and could easily propel him into the money.

Owner: Steve Moyer
Site: Rotowire Baseball Outsider
$ Left: $0.
Split: $195H/$65P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: George Lombard, Francisco Campos, Andy Benes, Scott Stewart, Bill Ortega, and Israel Alcantara.
First player purchased: Adam Dunn, $25.
Last player purchased: Scott Williamson, $1.

Nice pick: Adam Dunn, $25; he won't hit 50 homers this year, but this is a fair price for a guaranteed 30/100, with plus AVG, SB, and Runs, along with good upside.
Top sleeper: Scott Williamson, $1; a potential $10+ player if truly healthy.
Potential bust: Mo Vaughn, $21; I just don't see him coming back that strong this year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Rick Ankiel($1), Francisco Campos, Bill Ortega, Israel Alcantara, and Matt Williams($2).
Early good luck: Blanco trade means Casanova($2) starts in Milwaukee and Rios($10) should see at least 400 AB with Bell gone from Pittsburgh.
Early bad luck: Jeff Kent($24) moving from a car washing injury to a motorcycle accident, and Rick Ankiel experiencing arm problems. Four of his reserve gambles didn't make Opening Day rosters.
Category to trade: Power with Bagwell($31), Kent, Dunn, and Sheffield($30).

Steve's perhaps the primary proponent of the Stars & Scrubs strategy, and he's perfectly willing to cycle through dozens of $1 players each year until he finds someone that works; he has no vested interested in dollar players. However, aside from Casanova, Ramon Castro($1), Marvin Benard($4), and Scott Williamson($1), I'm not sure anyone else on this roster under $5 will help him this year. John Valentin($1), Ankiel, Komiyama($1), and the reserve picks all seem to offer much more downside than upside, so while he can dump all of them, he also could have drafted players with more upside in the first place. I'm also worried about his All-Met rotation, since aside from Kerry Wood($21), he features Leiter($18), Trachsel($5), Estes($7), and D'Amico($5); if Astacio's arm gives out, Komiyama will give him all five Met starters. Now as we expect the Mets to be the most disappointing team in the league this year, he's going to be really hurting for wins.

Summary: His offense should keep him competitive, but he needs new pitchers quickly to insure a first division finish.

Owner: Alex Patton & Peter Kreutzer
Site: Rototouts.com
$ Left: $0.
Split: $H186/$74P = 71/29.
Reserve roster: Austin Kearns, Josh Fogg, Mark Little, Joe McEwing, Mario Encarnacion, and Brian Bohanon.
First player purchased: Kevin Brown, $26.
Last player purchased: Keith Ginter, $1.

Nice pick: Placido Polanco, $10; batting second for the Cardinals, he should make solid contributions in BA, SB, and especially Runs.
Top sleeper: Austin Kearns, R; he should be ready by August and could have a very successful two month run.
Potential bust: Kevin Millar, $18; he'll need to continue to hit cleanup for the entire year to earn this salary, and we see no reason for that to happen with Lowell and Lee still improving.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Tike Redman($1), Lyle Overbay($1), Brett Myers($1), Mario Encarnacion, and Brian Bohanon.
Early good luck: Marcus Giles($18) successfully held off Betemit and Todd Hundley($6) got the Opening Day start this year.
Early bad luck: Charles Johnson($11) is hurting and Chuck Smith($1) got dealt to Colorado.
Category to trade: Wins.

They also tried a Stars and Scrubs strategy like Moyer, except they spread the risk out over more players while still picking up six dollar players. I'm concerned that most of their young talent will earn their salaries at best, and only a couple of players like Travis Lee($13) and Juan Encarnacion($10) have any real chance to turn profits. They didn't bother with saves at all, and I'm not too confident in most of their starters. I'm also not too fond of their overall pitching depth even without any relievers, and the only category in which I think they've secured a great finish is Wins.

Summary: If their young players develop beyond most people's expectation, they could finish in the first division.

Owner: Greg Scalf
Site: Fantasy Baseball Central
$ Left: $3.
Split: $H173/$84P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Marlon Byrd, Kirk Rueter, Chris Reitsma, Nelson Figueroa, Lance Davis, and So Taguchi.
First player purchased: Randy Johnson, $38.
Last player purchased: Wilson Betemit, $3.

Nice pick: Randy Johnson, $38; if you're going to spend on a top starter, this is where you should spend your money.
Top sleeper: Roosevelt Brown, $2; he should earn double-digit value just by backing up the injury-prone Moises Alou.
Potential bust: Mike Hampton, $1; he could post a $-10 or worse by the end of the year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Ruben Mateo($1), Wilson Betemit($3), Marlon Byrd, and So Taguchi
Early good luck: Galaragga($1) finding a platoon job in Montreal and Brown seeing playing time this early in the season.
Early bad luck: LoDuca($20) hitting 3rd behind two OBP drains, Stevens($11) falling into a platoon with Galaragga, and Ruben Mateo($1) losing the Cincy OF battle.
Category to trade: With Alomar($31), Renteria($21), Jackson($3), and DeShields($18), he should already be looking to deal steals.

His infield and top starting pitchers are excellent, and he's taken solid gambles with players like Hideo Nomo($16), Ruben Quevedo($6), and Byung-Hyun Kim($12). Unfortunately he has very little in the outfield whatsoever as Alou's battling injuries and DeShields is much more valuable in the infield. There's definitely solid talent in here that can be augmented by a couple nice FAAB purchases, but he needs to dump Hampton ASAP to avoid major ERA/WHIP damage.

Summary: If Hampton goes soon, then he could finish in the first division.

Owner: Mike Bikales and Dan Gottfried
Site: Rotisserie Hall of Fame
$ Left: $0.
Split: $173H/$87P = 67/33.
Reserve roster: Livan Hernandez, Rey Ordonez, Jesus Sanchez, K Horry(!? If anyone knows who this was supposed to be, please let me know), Carlos Zambrano, and J.R. House.
First player purchased: Marlon Anderson, $13.
Last player purchased: Brian Anderson, $1.

Nice pick: Chipper Jones, $31; he could have a monster year in front of Sheffield.
Top sleeper: Mike Redmond, $1; he appears ready to establish himself as a .300 threat and at least a $5 player.
Potential bust: Barry Larkin, $11; while he drafted several injury-prone players, Larkin barely earned a dollar last year and could easily return to the DL for much of the year.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): J.R. House.
Early good luck: CJ's injury gives Redmond a starting job.
Early bad luck: Tatis($10) is still injured and Jesus Sanchez lost his potential rotation spot.
Category to trade: Saves, with Benitez($22), Mike Williams($13), and Leskanic($8) returning later in the year.

They drafted several solid young starters with good upside and mostly solid strikeout numbers while still picking up a couple closers. Their offense is nicely balanced between studs(Chipper and Griffey), young veterans(Derrek Lee and Marlon Anderson), and several guys $10 and under with good upside. While they'll need a great season by Griffey to finish high in the money, I think they should be in contention for most of the year.

Summary: I'll be surprised if they don't finish in the first division, and they could easily stay in the race until the end.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Rent Tom Hanks' "Bachelor Party", featuring Mrs. Chuck Finley, the former Mrs. David Coverdale.