Today's Fantasy Rx

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As previously mentioned, we keep track of Games Finished stats during Spring Training. We only count GF with exactly 1 IP since that's the length of a typical closer outing. We also keep a sheet of lineups, updated every day or so, that we also use for each of our drafts.

I'll likely continue this article for one more week, and then I'll shift to providing lineup/bullpen updates in the course of daily articles beginning on Opening Monday.

Potential Closers

Mariano Rivera is the only pitcher who's finished 7 games this spring, and he appears ready for the season. He should be the first closer taken in any draft.

Four pitchers have finished 6 games this spring. You know about Bob Wickman and Felix Rodriguez. Kevin Gryboski, who we discussed last week here at 4 GF, has since finished two additional games and is in the running for one of the final two bullpen slots. With the Jose Cabrera trade, the only relievers assured of making the team in Atlanta are Smoltz, Remlinger, and Ligtenberg. Spooneybarger is pitching great and should be their next top set-up man, and perennial prospect (and DL candidate) Damian Moss is out of options, pitching decently, and gives them a long relief option. The final slot should probably go to Gryboski as he has the most potential of the remaining pitchers, but the Atlanta papers think lefty John Foster has a chance, as do NRIs Darren Holmes and Rich Rodriguez.

The last pitcher to have completed four games is Baltimore's Jorge Julio, who now looks set to steal the closing job from Willis Roberts. Julio, acquired from the Expos last year for Ryan Minor, posted a 22:9 K:BB in 21.1 IP with 25 H and 2 HR after his call-up last year. His minor league MLE line looked like 55:22 K:BB in 56 IP with 51 H and 5 HR. He certainly appears prepared to close even after only spending one full year in relief. While I normally discount all spring statistics, his performance may convince Baltimore to keep him, as he's compiled an 11:2 K:BB in 9 IP with 6 H and 0 HR, along with a 1.00 ERA and 3 saves. Nominal closer Willis Roberts has only managed a 1:0 K:BB in 4 IP with 6 H and 0 HR, along with a 2.25 ERA, 1-0 record, and 2 saves. Given the state of the team and Julio's greater long-term potential, I will be shocked if he isn't the announced closer by Opening Day. Consider him a good buy at anything under $15 right now, and don't be surprised if he racks 30 saves.

Aside from Seattle's Aaron Taylor, discussed last week and also demoted in the last week, San Francisco's Felix Diaz is the only other pitcher to finish 5 games. While he was sent down a couple of days ago, he showed decent stuff this spring with a 7:5 K:BB in 8 IP with 5 H and 0 HR, along with a 2.25 ERA, 1-0 record, and 2 saves, the latter set of stats identical to Willis Roberts' numbers. Diaz was only in A-ball last year at Hagerstown in his first year in a full-season league. He posted relatively impressive statistics, including a 56:16 K:BB in 52 IP with 49 H and 4 HR, and the Giants added him to the 40-man roster this off-season in his first year of eligibility for the Rule 5 draft. While he appeared to be one of the more questionable protected players at the time, he's now completed a respectable spring against major league hitters and looks primed to move up the ladder quickly. Expect him to at least pitch solidly in AA by the end of the year, and don't be surprised if he challenges for the relief spot of Tim Worrell or even Jay Witasick a year from now.

Several more pitchers reached 4 GF in the last week:

Willis Roberts of Baltimore, Rolando Viera of Boston;

Matt J. Miller of Oakland; Pete Walker of New York and Doug Nickle of Philadelphia;

Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Chiasson of Chicago, Jim Brower of Cincinnati, and Valerio de los Santos of Milwaukee;

Jose Jimenez of Colorado, Matt Herges of Los Angeles, and Alan Embree of San Diego.

While I'd hoped to provide a detailed review of most of these players when they finished their fourth game, I didn't expect so many pitchers to reach 5, 6, and 7 GF this week. I'll just briefly review each pitcher's current situation.

Viera and Nickle have both been demoted in the past week, and while both will likely play significant roles in Boston and Philadelphia's respective bullpens in the future, I'd be surprised if either saw much major league time this year.

I discussed Roberts briefly above with Julio, but despite my belief that he'd have some success as a closer, he appears destined for middle relief at best this year.

Miller is a AAA closer likely to share that role for Oakland with Chad Harville and Bert Snow, as I just don't see an available roster spot for Miller right now.

Walker, an NRI, doesn't appear to have a chance to beat out anyone currently on the roster for a spot, so expect him to head to AAA unless the Mets need to place a couple pitchers on the DL.

While Farnsworth and Chiasson currently are slated to be the top two righties in the Cubs' pen, they've both been rocked in their last few outings. Chiasson might even be in danger of losing his roster spot altogether to Carlos Zambrano, who's made a late surge in camp.

We discussed Brower two weeks ago here, and I still expect him to pitch in middle relief.

De los Santos' role will likely expand due to Chad Fox's injury as the Brewers seem likely to go to a closer-by-committee rather than to just choose Mike DeJean, Jose Cabrera, or the left-handed de los Santos. De los Santos actually has the most closer-worthy set of skills of these three pitchers, so consider him a solid $1 sleeper in most leagues.

Jimenez remains Colorado's closer despite the expectation of many people that Todd Jones might challenge for the role.

Herges also appears to still be the Dodgers' closer, although speculation continues to build that Eric Gagne will be given a chance in that slot. We heartily recommend that option to the Dodgers, and while we do own Gagne at a buck in two different keeper leagues, we also recognize that he has the best set of skills in that entire bullpen.

Alan Embree, despite the excellent performance of Rule 5 pick Jorge Nunez last year, should emerge as San Diego's primary left-handed set-up man for the first half of the season. Once Kevin Walker returns from arm surgery later in the year, expect San Diego to deal Embree to a contender that needs a second or third competent lefty reliever as his 2001 problems appear mostly the result of bad luck.

Lineups

I'll try to provide brief updates on some lineup decisions that affect player values.

I've seen no evidence of a set line-up in Cleveland other than the likelihood of Burks/Thome/Fryman/Branyan in the 3-6 slots if Lawton hits lead-off. Hopefully we'll have a better idea by next week.

Detroit continues to hold auditions for both the #1 and #2 slots, with Bobby Higginson among the many players reportedly considered to lead-off. I still expect Macias and Easley to begin at the top of the order, but don't be surprised to see some flexibility here, with Macias heading to #9, Easley moving to #6, and either Fick or Meluskey and Halter ascending to #1 & #2.

Minnesota recently announced another significant lineup change. The middle the order will remain as previously discussed with Guzman/Mientkiewicz/Hunter/Ortiz in the 2-6 slots. Whoever starts in RF, likely Brian Buchanan but Michael Cuddyer, Dustan Mohr, and Bobby Kielty all remaining in the running, will bat 7th, followed by catcher A.J. Pierzynski, likely to see more playing time this year. The shift is that LF Jacque Jones will now lead-off and 2B Luis Rivas will hit 9th. I don't see any reason for making this change as Rivas appears ready to lead-off and Jones' OBP has been relatively poor against all pitchers, and he hasn't even played much against left-handers. We're also irked as we own Rivas in a 5x5 league and Jones in a 4x4, and they both lose more value in their respective leagues than in most other situations as Rivas loses AB and Jones' weak BA will be exploited while his RBIs will likely drop.

Oakland has still given no indication of their starting lineup other than affirming that Jeremy Giambi will lead-off. Expect the other left-handed batters to hit in the following order: Chavez, Justice, Long, and Pena, likely in the #3, #5, #6, and #8 slots respectively. I still expect Tejada in the #2, Dye in the #4, Hernandez in #7 and Menechino 9th, although Menechino could also hit 2nd, with Tejada dropping to 6 or 7, Long filling the opposite spot, and Hernandez dropping to #9.

Seattle has given hints over the last few days that they may set their heart of the order as Boone/Edgar/Olerud in the #3-5 slots. I still expect Ichiro/Cirillo at the top, with Cameron 6th and either Guillen/Davis/McLemore or Sierra/Wilson/Guillen on most days, so I don't really see this move affecting anyone's value in a significant way.

For Tampa Bay, I've finally conceded that Aubrey Huff, who we own at $5, will not be the starting third baseman. However, instead of Jared Sandberg, who isn't even prepared to hit at AAA, I expect Russ Johnson to get first crack at starting when the team breaks camp.

Over in the National League, Atlanta has been consistently hitting their first baseman, usually Julio Franco, ahead of Javy Lopez. Expect the back end of the order to go Castilla/1B/Lopez/Giles on most days, with Franco receiving 55% of the AB while Surhoff and Helms divide the rest. While I'd still rather have Surhoff in the line-up than Vinny Castilla, we also continue to read rumors that the Braves will make a move to upgrade at 1B, which could be anything from dealing a youngster for Brian Daubach to a blockbuster for a stud to hit in the middle of the line-up.

With Barry Larkin's continuing injury problems, Cincinnati seems resigned to using Todd Walker in the lead-off slot. To avoid batting four left-handers in a row, this move likely requires the demotion of Adam Dunn to the #6 hole behind Aaron Boone. Either the starting rightfielder, likely Juan Encarnacion, or the shortstop will hit second. When Larkin is out, Juan Castro will get first dibs to start, followed by Wilton Guerrero. Also don't be surprised if Gookie Dawkins breaks camp with the team, even potentially as the starter after a strong AFL campaign despite a .176 spring BA. NRI SS Rainer Olmedo has also impressed management in camp, although I can't begin to imagine that the Reds would be stupid enough to blow another 40-man spot on an A+ prospect, especially as this one only managed a 24:121 BB:K ratio and a .587 SLG at Mudville in 2001.

Colorado has made an obvious shift in their line-up, moving Juan Uribe and his SB potential up to #2 while Jose Ortiz drops to #7. Now they really should let Ortiz hit 5th with Todd Zeile at #8 behind Petrick or Bennett, but O'Dowd and Buddy Bell appear set to ride Zeile as long as possible. With the current line-up, expect more SB and R for Uribe and less RBI for Ortiz because of Zeile's base-clogging ability.

Los Angeles, against all reasonable judgement, again appears set to waste their top two lineup slots, likely with their starting centerfielder and shortstop Cesar Izturis. Despite Dave Roberts' poor historical hitting performance, he currently appears the favorite to start in center when he probably shouldn't even make the team. Tom Goodwin still offers the most upside of this horrendous collection of "talent", as he at least has some potentially disruptive speed along with a dreadful OBP, which is more than Roberts, McKay Christensen, and Marquis Grissom bring to the table. LA's best move would be to play Green or Jordan in center while NRIs Phil Hiatt or Mike Kinkade start in LF to add some power down in the order. The existing alignment wastes LoDuca and Beltre down in the order, with Beltre potentially as low as 7th, ahead of only Mark Grudizelanek. A lineup of Beltre, LoDuca, Green, Jordan, Karros, Hiatt, Grudzielanek, and Izturis offers them the most run-scoring potential, but LA seems determined to waste another season of Kevin Brown's $15M/year contract.

While I don't expect the Mets to continue this experiment, I've seen several lineups in which Mo Vaughn hits third and Piazza shifts to #4. I don't see how this arrangement helps as Piazza should have a better OBP while Vaughn offers more power potential, but keep an eye on this situation over the next week.

Finally, Philadelphia remains content with Rollins/Glanville/Abreu/Rolen at the top of the order, but they've moved Lieberthal back to #5, followed by Lee, Burrell, and Anderson on most days. While Burrell has seen some time at clean-up in preparation for his likely move to that spot next year after Rolen leaves, don't expect him to see too many AB above #7 unless Lieberthal hits the DL again.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Check back tomorrow as we publish our list of Best Fantasy Rookies for 2002, leading up to releasing our projections on Monday. Unlike almost every other website and publication, our rookie list will be specifically designed for 2002 minor league drafts without worrying about players' long-term potential beyond the 2002-03 seasons.

I plan on spending Monday through Thursday discussing a few specific players from our projections, then reviewing bullpen/lineups again on Friday, before spending the last two days of Spring Training going over our rosters for the 4 Baseball Weekly Challenge contests. As I plan on updating our Challenge moves every weekend, feel free to follow along with our roster changes throughout the year (you're all free to mirror our rosters and transactions if you wish).