Today's Fantasy Rx

We first introduced LPR, or LIMAPQS Rating in this column last week when discussing the inaugural draft for the FSICNL experts' league. If you're interested in the complete breakdown of the gauge, please take a look back at the first section of this column.

Instead of rehashing yesterday's intro, please refer back to that column if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- in the second half of 2001
2 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- in the first half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- for all of 2000
4 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- for all of 1999

1.5 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- for all of 2001 (if the pitcher failed to earn a 1 or 2)

I have not made any additional notation for pitchers with either a 1 or 2 who also qualify for a 1.5 because I'm looking for a pitcher who displayed some talent in either half, and pitchers who displayed skills in both halves already have a 12 notation.
(Note: All skill ratios include a player's MLEs, where appropriate, for each year in question.)

a - DOM of 50% or more in 2001
b - DOM of 50% or more in 2000
c - DOM of 50% or more in 1999
(Note: DOM, short for dominance, developed by Gene McCaffrey, measures the percentage of total starts in which a pitcher scored a 4 or 5 PQS.)

x - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2000
z - DIS of 20% or less in 1999
(Note: DIS, short for disaster, also developed by Gene McCaffrey, measures the percentage of total starts in which a pitcher scored a 0 or 1 PQS.)

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

1234
abcxyz - Tim Hudson, the best young starting pitcher in the AL
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez, the best starting pitcher in the AL when healthy
abcxyz - Mike Mussina, the best consistent starting pitcher in the AL
ax - John Burkett

Keith Foulke
Steve Karsay
Derek Lowe
Mariano Rivera
Paul Shuey
Mike Stanton

All these pitchers are excellent bets for 2001; if you can grab one of the top starters, one of the top closers, and then try to pick up Lowe, Shuey, and Stanton for under $15, you'll likely finish first in ERA and WHIP, and have a solid foundation for the other categories.

I also find it mildly disconcerting that seven of these ten pitchers are now with either the Yankees or the Red Sox. Boston's rotation could be fantastic if Pedro, Burkett, and Lowe stay healthy.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens, the best pitcher of the last four decades.
yz - Dave Burba; he still has the skills to pitch effectively if given the opportunity in Texas.

Buddy Groom
Jim Mecir
Travis Phelps
Arthur Rhodes

While these four are technically second tier relievers, all four would perform admirably if given a full-time closing job.

124
abxy - Barry Zito

John Bale
Eddie Guardado

I'm growing very impressed by both the overall level of quality pitching in the AL, as well as the number of potentially excellent lefties. All three of these pitchers would be nice additions to your squad, although monitor Zito's workload levels this year.

134
abcxyz - Bartolo Colon, in a similar statistical position to Curt Schilling, and with similar upside

Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

All three of these guys have the potential to easily out-earn most projections by $5 or more; we really like Urbina for this year and think he has a fairly good chance to lead the AL in saves.

234
by - Ted Lilly

Rich Garces
Bobby Howry

Lilly may be the best sleeper in the league for 5x5 work, Garces should be first in line for saves if Urbina has any problems, and Howry should be a steal in most drafts because of his recent demotion out of the set-up role.

12
abcxyz - Chan Ho Park, who should pitch almost as well in Arlington
axy - Kevin Appier, fully recovered from surgery and a great sleeper
acz - Andy Pettitte, primed for 20 wins if his health holds up
ax - Roy Halladay
a - Rolando Arrojo
x - Jose Mercedes
y - Kelvim Escobar

Matt Anderson
Nick Bierbrodt
Troy Percival
Dan Plesac
Ricardo Rincon
Bob Wickman
Victor Zambrano

These pitchers are who you should target to fill our at least one or two spots of your staff. I think the first two starters especially should be great bargains, Arrojo and Zambrano appear to be very competent middle relievers, and Anderson, Percival, and Wickman are all relatively safe closing bets. Escobar also will be solid if he avoids further health problems.

13
by - Frank Castillo
b - Paul Wilson

Dan Miceli
Lou Pote
Todd Van Poppel

The Rangers could be a great source of vultured wins for middle relievers, and I wouldn't be even slightly surprised if someone like Van Poppel wound up with 10 wins in relief. Castillo and Wilson are also good targets to fill out your rotation.

14
axz - Freddy Garcia

Chris Carpenter
Hector Carrasco
Felix Heredia
Jay Powell
B.J. Ryan
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Rudy Seanez
Jeff Zimmerman

While Garcia and Sasaki can't get too much better, the other pitchers on this list all appear to be returning to their previous forms. Ryan and Zimmerman in particular should be undervalued in most leagues, and I especially like their 5x5 potential.

23
x - Jeff Weaver

Randy Choate
Mike Holtz
Billy Koch
Jerrod Riggan

Although these five pitchers are relatively safe bets with the exception of Weaver and his approaching DL stay, I also don't expect any of them to exceed most projections. If Choate, Holtz, and Riggan all make their respective bullpens, they're probably better mid-season injury replacements than options to fill your last pitching slot in all but the deepest leagues.

24
xz - Esteban Loaiza
Steve Woodard

Gary Glover
Ramiro Mendoza
David Riske
John Rocker

The starters are both very hittable while none of the relievers have shown great consistency at any point. There's definitely good value somewhere in this group, although much will depend on the eventual roles of Loaiza, Woodard, and Riske.

34
xcyz - Aaron Sele
byz - David Wells
x - Erik Hiljus
x - Luke Prokopec

Mike Fyhrie
Roberto Hernandez
Travis Miller

Both Hiljus and Prokopec look like solid sleepers as they've previously displayed some consistent skill levels and showed off potential dominance in 2001. Sele might even finally take the next step, although his wins will plummet now that he's left Seattle. None of the relievers look like particularly safe gambles, so you should probably look to spend your money elsewhere.

1.5,34
cy - Chuck Finley

Mr. Tawny Kitaen should still have at least one more good year left in him.

1.5,3
Brian Shouse
Anthony Telford

Both pitchers are decent sleepers but unlikely to make the respective bullpens of either Kansas City or Texas.

1.5,4
xy - Jarrod Washburn
The Angels best young pitcher has a chance to earn closer to $20 with some run support.

1.5
Jeremy Affeldt
Willie Banks
Nate Cornejo
Brendan Donnelly
Ryan Drese
Mike Duvall
Scott Eyre
Casey Fossum
Matt Ginter
Chad Harville
Jorge Julio
Colby Lewis
Mark Lukasiewicz
Brian McNichol
Bart Miadich
Matt Miller, DET lefty
Matt Miller, OAK righty
John Parrish
Corey Thurman
Jake Westbrook
Mark Wohlers

With the exceptions of Banks and Wohlers, the others on this list are some of top pitching prospects in the American League. While the AL appears to currently have more dominant pitching talent at the top of rotations and bottom of bullpens, none of these pitchers approaches the ceiling of a Josh Beckett or Juan Cruz. Nevertheless, Fossum and Julio especially show significant 2002 potential and are worthy of a few bucks each in your draft.

The rest of the listed pitchers all have demonstrated some skill potential but have not shown a preferable degree of consistency. While there's nothing wrong with most of them appearing on your roster this year, be aware that they carry a much higher degree of risk than those listed above.

1
aby - Joel Pineiro
ax - Mark Mulder

Danys Baez
James Baldwin
Jason Grimsley
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
J.C. Romero
C.C. Sabathia
Bob Wells

The trick for this group is to differentiate between pitchers who had a lucky couple of months (Baldwin and Wells) from those that established a new level of skill (Pineiro and Baez).

2
abxy - Rick Reed
ax - Tim Wakefield
x - Mark Buehrle
x - Joe Kennedy
y - Sidney Ponson

Cory Bailey
Pedro Borbon
Jesus Colome
Hideki Irabu
Randy Keisler
Al Levine
Kyle Lohse
Jeff Nelson
Bill Pulsipher
Bryan Rekar
Luis Vizcaino
Danny Wright
Esteban Yan

While we're certainly concerned about the workload of the younger pitchers and the relative unimpressiveness of some of the older pitchers, Reed and Yan look like very safe picks, and we're also open to drafting Lohse, Vizcaino, or Wright.

3
ax - Cory Lidle

Paxton Crawford
Bob File
Adrian Hernandez
Antonio Osuna
Jon Rauch
Bill Simas
Mike Sirotka
Ben Weber

Although we're not particularly enamored with File or Weber and we have significant concerns about the extent of Sirotka's injury, the other six pitchers should be relatively safe bets once you know their playing time is secure.

4
cxz - Paul Abbott
cz - Dustin Hermanson
cz - Jose Lima
xy - Ramon Ortiz
xy - Tanyon Sturtze
yz - Steve Parris
b - Mark Redman
x - Doug Davis
x - Eric Milton

Francisco Cordero
Jack Cressend
Tom Martin
Juan Moreno
Danny Patterson
Victor Santos

Unlike a NL list filled with injury cases, only Redman and Cordero have missed a lot of time to injury. Most of these pitchers still look mostly undraftable to us, but we're still considering Davis, Milton, and Cressend in all of our AL drafts.

Pitchers with some DOM potential
abxy - Jamie Moyer
ab - Matt Wise
bcz - Sterling Hitchcock
a - Brandon Lyon

Moyer needs to keep defying the aging process, Wise needs a full-time job, Hitchcock needs to win back his rotation spot, and Lyon needs to avoid potential burnout; other than those rather minor concerns, all four of these pitchers make great candidates for most team's rotations.

Pitchers with some DIS potential
xyz - Brad Radke
xyz - Todd Ritchie
xy - Pat Hentgen
xy - Orlando Hernandez
xy - Kenny Rogers
xz - Joe Mays
x - Rocky Biddle
x - Paul Byrd
x - Jon Garland
x - Scott Schoeneweis
x - Jeff Suppan
x - Josh Towers
y - Jason Johnson
y - Jim Parque
y - Blake Stein
z - Chuck Nagy
z - Darren Oliver

All of these guys are mainly innings' eaters despite the $20 potential of Radke and Ritchie. Those two are easily the safest bets here, and we're also fairly confident in El Ducky and Mays. I'd be somewhat surprised if we wound up drafting any of the other pitchers on this list as anything more than an IP flyer.

Pitchers who have demonstrated no appreciable skill in K:BB, K/9, and HR/9 over the last three years but are likely to be drafted in many leagues:
Chad Durbin
Scott Erickson
Ryan Franklin
Chris George
John Halama
LaTroy Hawkins
Mike Jackson
Dan Reichert
Willis Roberts
Steve Sparks
Jeff Tam
Ismael Valdes
Kris Wilson
Jaret Wright

While yesterday's list was filled with Pirates, today's has four potential KC starters. Sparks and Tam both make decent picks although soft-tossers don't normally see much success for an extended period of time. We also like the immediate prospects of Willis Roberts as a full-time reliever, although you should also look to back him up with Julio.

I hope you enjoyed this exploration of 2002 America League pitchers using LPR, a new, shorthand method for analyzing pitchers. Tomorrow I'll return to our weekly look at bullpens and line-ups.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Now that you've had a chance to see how this year's probable pitchers rate under the LPR gauge, what do you think of its effectiveness as a draft tool? Please let me know if you find this useful, as well as if you think we should continue our research into improving the rating.