Today's Fantasy Rx

For those of you think that draft dynamics play a part in evaluating rosters, I meant to contradict that argument last week with AL LABR reviews, but I'll instead include it now. When you look at a roster, and when possible examine the entire drafts, you have to judge each team by their overall quality, not by how they adapted during the draft. Making the correct pick at any given point of the draft is more indicative of the ability to recover from earlier errors; it should not factor into the consideration of your roster as a whole.

The aforementioned rationale is also another reason why "position scarcity" should not ever be incorporated into your actual valuation, as you need to assemble the best overall talent, not simply overpay for infielders and then get stuck with a bunch of $1 backup outfielders.

With the Baseball Weekly Fantasy Guide now in stores, I was able to use the official listed rosters for the reserve picks. I'll briefly recap the missing reserve picks from last week's AL reviews

Jonathan Mayo: All picks were listed.

Irwin Zwilling & Lenny Melnick: Bart Miadich. While this is an excellent pick as Miadich's 2001 MLEs were fantastic(2.3 K:BB, 9.5 K/9, and 0.6 HR/9), I don't believe this is enough to affect their standings as Miadich will be lucky to see more than 20 IP in the majors this year.

Mat Olkin: Scott Eyre and Paul Byrd. Eyre(2.6 K:BB, 8.5 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9 2001 MLEs) took a solid step forward last year and should perform admirably if he wins Toronto's #5 starter's job. I have much less faith in Byrd, and even if he begins the year in KC's rotation, I'd be surprised if he finishes the season there. Neither of these picks affect my overall opinion of Olkin's team to any great extent.

Lisa Winston & Wayne Wilentz: Corey Thurman and John Stephens. I like both of these picks a lot, although I did anticipate Corey (instead of Mike) Thurman in the review, and Baltimore doesn't seem to have much faith in Stephens. If the Orioles promote him quickly, this could be a great selection, but he also could spend almost the entire year in the minors.

Gene McCaffrey & John Menna: Rudy Saenez. While he's a perfectly capable pitcher, he's going to have a difficult time staying in the Texas pen for much of the year, so I don't expect him to have much value.

John Coleman: All picks were listed.

Nate Ravitz: All picks were listed.

Michael Brown: Sean Douglass. Another of Baltimore's potentially solid young pitchers, we also doubt his ability to remain in the rotation when they seem determined to keep throwing guys with lower upsides out there like Jason Johnson and Control Towers.

Rick Wolf: All picks were listed.

John Zaleski: All picks were listed.

Bill Moore & Ed Cagle: Denny Hocking. While he's a capable UT guy and might see some starts at 3B or SS due to Koskie/Guzman injury problems, he really doesn't have many baseball skills nor does he help most roto rosters.

John Hunt: Antonio Perez. A wasted pick as we don't expect him to see the majors until September at the earliest.

As I have no other additional comments on the AL LABR draft, we can proceed to the NL draft from March 3rd.

I'll try to break them down team by team with a more in-depth review than is normally present in the annual Baseball Weekly Fantasy issue. Tomorrow I'll also offer my projections for the Top 3 teams, a prediction that we'll revisit at the end of the season.

Please refer to the LABR National League rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Ron Shandler, defending champion
Site: Baseball HQ
$ Left: $0.
Split: $195H/$65P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Jeff Shaw, Dicky Gonzalez, Benito Baez, Mark DeRosa, Scott Chiasson, Gookie Dawkins.
Audio Review Summary from website: He successfully executed LIMA again to a great extent. Despite seemingly "overpaying" for Nevin($28) and Tino Martinez($18) based on BBHQ book values, he reminded the online audience that he uses a range of values for each player. While Nevin is listed at $27 and Martinez is listed at $16 in the book, any bid in the $25-$29 for the former or $14-$18 for the latter is perfectly reasonable, as most players are just as likely to earn within two dollars of their projected price than to actually earn their projected price.

Nice pick: Luis Castillo@$25; he could easily earn $10 or more profit if he stays healthy and keeps stealing.
Top sleeper: Brent Butler@$1; he'll earn $5 even if he sees less than 200 AB, and if Ortiz or Uribe struggle, he'll finish in double digits.
Potential bust: Moises Alou@$23; while he'll earn close to this if he stays healthy, we're very concerned about his ability to do so.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Dicky Gonzalez, and while we think he has a lot of potential, I don't see Gookie Dawkins seeing much playing time this year.
Early bad luck: Gregg Zaun's($4) injury troubles will likely keep his AB down.
Category to trade: Power.

He drafted a deep offense, probably with at least 5 players with 90+ RBIs, as well as plenty of speed in Castillo($10), Renteria($22), Kotsay($18), and Owens($7). His BA appears very solid, and he even has nice sleepers in Armando Rios($8) and Craig Wilson($8). While I question Todd Jones@$6 , he drafted a solid bullpen with Wagner($27), Dotel($9), Bottalico($1), Fultz($1), Baez, and Chiasson, although this would have been even better for 5x5. His rotation also is very good, but is also appears more suited for a 5x5 league. He's unsurprisingly short on wins, but especially if Shaw comes back, he should be nicely positioned on the season.

Summary: I see no reason why he should finish lower than third.

Owner: Chris Kahrl
Site: Baseball Prospectus
$ Left: $1.
Split: $177H/$82P = 68/32.
Reserve roster: Jamey Wright, Ramon Castro, Kirk Rueter, Ryan Christiansen, Tony McKnight, and Jimmy Anderson
Audio Review Summary from website: He's turning the team over to Joe Sheehan to run during the season, and he appeared glad that he wouldn't have to manage this team. While he's happy to pick up Marcus Giles($13) and Jose Ortiz($20), he also spent very little at 3B($4 Craig Counsell) or the OF($55 on Berkman/Abreu, but only $10 on the other three). He drew the first crickets with an $18 Oswalt nomination, and with spending $26 on Sexson, he didn't have the money to improve 3B/3rd OF. He's pleased with Berkman, Charles Johnson($12), and Ramon Castro on reserve.

Nice pick: Bobby Abreu@$33; a very fair price for a 4-category stud.
Top sleeper: Jason Lane@$1; he could earn $20 if he finds 400 AB.
Potential bust: Lance Berman@$33; I'd be surprised if he managed more than $25.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Ryan Christiansen and Tony McKnight.
Early bad luck: D'Angelo Jimenez($10) is no longer assured of a starting job for the Padres.
Category to trade: Wins.

While he drafted a lot of players with good upside, I don't think he has more than 15 saves and I'm concerned about his offensive depth. I'm also concerned that he overpayed for almost every double digit player aside from Abreu and Oswalt. Sheehan should probably look to deal Maddux and Berkman to fill some holes early, although guys like Lane and Roosevelt Brown($9) could potentially turn nice profits.

Summary: If they make good trades, they should have a decent shot at a first division finish.

Owner: Roger Anderson
Site: RotoAuctioneer.com
$ Left: $2.
Split: $211H/$47P = 82/18.
Reserve roster: John Thomson, Denny Neagle, Shawn Chacon(listed in BBW as Ray), Ray King, Mike Myers, Scott Elarton.
Audio Review Summary from website: He spent $108 on "undervalued quality OF" in Floyd($29), Drew($28), Hollandsworth($22), DeShields($17), and Encarnacion($12). He didn't buy much pitching, but found decent bargains in Ortiz($14), Penny($12), and Wolf($10).

Nice pick: J.D. Drew@$28; I'd be surprised if he earned less, and if he finds 600 AB instead of 500, he'll approach $40.
Top sleeper: Ron Belliard@$3; he appears to be developing some power, and he might hit 20 HR with 500 AB.
Potential bust: Cliff Floyd@$29; besides Drew and Floyd, he also drafted Hollandsworth($22), giving him three very injury-prone outfielders, and at least one of them will likely fall short of their auction price.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Scott Elarton, Wilson Betemit, and Brandon Phillips.
Early bad luck: Drew's going to have to wear an ankle brace all year.
Category to trade: Wins.

While I recognize that his strategy was to acquire Rockies' starters to use for road starts, pitchers pitch better at home than on the road. I think this is the equivalent of punting ERA and WHIP, and since he also has few saves, I don't see enough firepower here to finish in the money. With Betemit and Phillips beginning the year in the minors, he'll have to FAAB immediately and likely lose both players, so I don't understand why he didn't spend more on his MIF instead of his injury-prone OFs.

Summary: He's trying an interesting strategy, and while this may just be my bias against Rockies' pitchers at work, I don't see him in the first division with likely last place finishes in ERA/WHIP and few saves.

Owner: Josh Boyd
Site: Baseball America
$ Left: $2.
Split: $185H/$73P = 72/28.
Reserve roster: Hee Seop Choi, Jeremy Fikac, Jim Journell, Darren Dreifort, Eric Valent, and Felix Escalona.
Audio Review Summary from website: He spent money up front on three 3B: Ensberg($12), Beltre($22), and Chipper($33), although he'll move Chipper to the outfield after he qualifies in week one. He's glad to get three good bats with Chipper, Sheffield($29), and Brian Giles($29). He intentionally went after "Baseball America-type players", focusing on young guys with upside as much as possible.

Nice pick: (Free!) Erubiel Durazo@$9; he'll earn this in 250 AB; if he finds double the AB, he'll break $20.
Top sleeper: Austin Kearns@$4; even if he's not up until the All-Star break, he still should earn this by the end of the year.
Potential bust: Josias Manzanillo@$7; we think he has closer potential, but he still won't be allowed back in the majors until May 1st.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Rod Barajas, Hee Seop Choi, Jim Journell, and Felix Escalona.
Early bad luck: So Taguchi($6) has been rather unimpressive so far.
Category to trade: Superstar offense with Chipper($33), Giles($29), and Sheffield($29); he'll need to move one of these guys for better depth.

I don't see many saves with Herges($9), Mota($1), Weathers($3), Manzanillo, and Fikac. I'm also concerned about his wins as his entire starting staff is unproven aside from Al Leiter($15). Both his $1 catchers(Brian Schneider and Rod Barajas) might spend much of the year in the minors. He's also very vulnerable in MIF with Grudzielanek($7), Izturis($7), and Alex S. Gonzalez($9).

Summary: There's enough potential for a first division finish, but he'll need to convert one of his superstars into a closer and decent replacement bat.

Owner: Greg Ambrosius
Site: Krause Fantasy Sports
$ Left: $0.
Split: $172H/$88P = 66/34.
Reserve roster: Jose Guillen, Livan Hernandez, Ron Gant, Lance Davis, Mike Timlin, and Henry Blanco.
Audio Review Summary from website: He was looking to pay $28 for a 4-category guy, so he was pleased to grab Dunn($29) and Andruw Jones($28) as he thinks both have great upside. He'd rather pay for a young guy than buy a maxed-out veteran.

Nice pick: Eric Young@$21; I don't see any reason why Young can't return to close to $30 of value, although $25 is probably a safer bet. He's a solid bargain at this price.
Top sleeper: Wiki Gonzalez@$4; if he can stay healthy this season, he might be able to triple this price.
Potential bust: Andruw Jones@$28; he's shown no indication that he can rise above $25, and batting 2nd won't help his RBIs.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Lance Davis.
Early bad luck: Ramon Vazquez($7) has fallen into a dead heat with Deivi Cruz for Padre starting shortstop.
Category to trade: Steals.

While he may have overspent on the young studs, he found good RBI value later in the draft with McGriff($17) and Brian Jordan($15). I'm also rather pleased with his bullpen of Isringhausen($25), Kim($16), Stechschulte($1), Spooneybarger($2), Jose Cabrera($1), and Timlin. He may be somewhat long on steals and short on wins, but there's no reason that he can't trade to compensate.

Summary: While I'm not normally enamored of teams featuring players with less than two years of experience or more than 10, I have a good feeling about this team. If he can acquire a decent starter or two, he could definitely finish in the money.

Owner: Alex Patton
Site: Rototouts.com
$ Left: $2.
Split: $162H/$96P = 63/37.
Reserve roster: Chuck Smith, Xavier Nady, Britt Reames, Craig House, Dave Mlicki, and Ron Villone.
Audio Review Summary from website: He picked up Bonds($37) and Luis Gonzlaez($31) while price-enforcing, although he also recognized that stars don't normally go for that much in LABR and LGon wasn't planned. He also bought Randy($38) as he figures that Unit has at least one more good year; he was only bidding against one other owner at the top for Johnson.

Nice pick: Randy Johnson@$38; I expect he'll go for at least $40 in almost every other league.
Top sleeper: Barry Larkin@$8; if he ever stays healthy, he'll return to $20 of value.
Potential bust: Preston Wilson@$28; he could steal 40 bases, but he'll hurt you more in BA while hitting 2nd and his HR/RBI will decrease.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Xavier Nady and Craig House.
Early bad luck: John Smoltz($25) is still recovering and may not be ready for Opening Day.
Category to trade: Wins.

Spending $159 on five players(Bonds, Gonzalez, Johnson, Smoltz($25), and Preston Wilson($28)) left him with very few options deeper in the draft. He stayed with veterans with less risk, but I also don't believe he actually found many bargains in this group. His pitching staff features several potentially great bargains, as aside from Smith, Reames, and Villone on reserve, he spent $14 on Darryl Kile and then a total of $19 on Terry Adams, Carlos Hernandez, Cliff Politte, Redding, Helling, Prior, and Ligtenberg. He's very vulnerable to age and injury, but he also could finish Top 5 or better in every category.

Summary: He'll finish in the first division unless he loses two of his five studs to injury, and he only needs one or two good trades or FAAB pick-ups to finish in the money.

Owner: Miodrag Stanoev
Site: 2001 CDM Challenge Winner
$ Left: $0.
Split: $157H/$103P = 60/40.
Reserve roster: Adam Everett, Andres Galarraga, Carlos Zambrano, Pedro Feliz, Orlando Merced, and Shawon Dunston.
Audio Review Summary from website: He was a little bit intimidated at the quality of the competition, but he wisely planned to save money and executed that plan fairly well. He's not happy with Helms($3) at 1B and his outfield is a little "iffy", but he was very pleased with his pitching staff. Millwood($8) should have a "better year", Veres($7) could be a great bargain if he closes, and Gordon($15) should be a steal if injured. He was also happy to buy Morris and Wood at $23 each.

Nice pick: Kyle Farnsworth@$8; he would have earned $10 as a middle reliever, and he could triple this as a closer.
Top sleeper: Bobby Hill@$3; if he makes the team, he'll earn at least $20.
Potential bust: Kerry Wood@$23; I'd like this in 5x5, but Wood's simply too much of a risk at this price, and I can't see him earning a profit.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Kris Benson.
Early bad luck: Tom Gordon($15) will miss at least half the season.
Category to trade: Catching talent with Piazza($31), Barrett($4), and Marrero($4).

He's from Park Ridge, IL and went a little heavy on the Cubs(Hill, Wood, Gordon, Farnsworth, and Zambrano), although he also found quality talent at almost every position. While I think Mike Hampton($10) was a $10 mistake, everyone on his bench could contribute and he's got an offense nicely balanced to avoid risk. He looks rather light on steals unless Bobby Hill makes the Cubs, but he can also afford to deal someone like Ben Sheets($5) to help his offense.

Summary: His team has first place upside, but $25 spent on Hampton and Gordon will be tough to overcome. I think he should make it into the first division, but he'll need some luck with Hill or Veres to have enough depth.

I'll continue tomorrow with the other six teams and my picks for the top finishers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: I'm probably going to repeat myself here more than a couple of times, but spend on stars early in the draft. In almost every draft we've both observed and in which we've participated, a stud or two will be nominated in the first round and go between $5 and $10 below value. If you don't pick up at least one of these, you're going to either overspend later or leave money on the table.