Today's Fantasy Rx

As previously mentioned, we keep track of Games Finished stats during Spring Training. We only count GF with exactly 1 IP since that's the length of a typical closer outing. We also keep a sheet of lineups, updated every day or so, that we also use for each of our drafts.

I expect to continue updating this article every week through the end of Spring Training to give you an idea of how some particular player's roles change over the course of camp.

Potential Closers

Only one pitcher has finished five games this spring: RHP Aaron Taylor of Seattle.

Taylor is a 6-7, 24-year old who had to sit out the first 60 days of last season because he was on the voluntarily retired list after quitting at the end of 2000. The Mariners welcomed him back last season and were quite pleased with their decision as Taylor reached 98 MPH during the year. While his numbers were very impressive, including a 50:11 K:BB in 29 IP with only 19 H, he was only in A-ball at Wisconsin of the Midwest league. Although Spring Training stats mean very little, I'm not too impressed with his 3:2 K:BB in 5.0 with 7 hits allowed. He's likely at least two years away from the majors, but considering the rate at which Mariners' pitchers are hitting the DL again, he might be up sooner. I wouldn't consider him for your minor league draft this season, although you might want to keep him in mind for next year's list.

Six pitchers have completed four games this spring. I don't see any need to discuss Mariano Rivera or Bob Wickman as most of you should be very familiar with these established closers. San Francisco's Felix Rodriguez also belongs to this group, and he's also clearly the most prepared pitcher to close games in the majors of anyone not currently in the role. He'll earn double-digit value based on ERA and WHIP alone, and I'd be surprised if he doesn't wind up with at least a dozen saves by the end of the year.

Atlanta's Kevin Gryboski was picked up from Seattle for a low-A prospect because the Braves had room on their 40-man roster for him. He's 28 and saved 22 games for AAA Tacoma last year. In reviewing last year's AAA/AA pitching prospects, I projected him for bullpen duty this year but not fantasy value aside from use as an injury replacement. His 2001 MLEs were fairly respectable at a 2.0 K:BB, 6.4 K/9, and 1.3 HR/9. Unfortunately, despite his 4 GF, his Spring Stats are rather unimpressive: 3:4 K:BB in 4.0 IP with 7 hits allowed. Atlanta will likely given him a shot at some point this year, but I don't expect him to break camp with the team.

Ron Mahay of the Cubs finished last season as their second lefty reliever. He was considered the favorite this year as he holds a spot on the 40-man roster, but his spring performance has been atrocious: 1:2 K:BB in 5.1 IP with 15(!) hits allowed including 3 home runs. His 2001 MLEs were rather impressive at 3.0 K:BB, 7.2 K/9, and 1.1 HR/9, but I would expect the Cubs to trade for a veteran lefty rather than keeping Mahay at this point.

Several more pitchers reached 3 GF in the last week, although I find it mildly interesting that none of the three pitchers discussed last week, Cincinnati RHP Jim Brower, San Francisco LHP Chad Zerbe, and Oakland RHP Matt Miller, finished a single game in the past week.

If any of these players attains 4 GF by next week's article, I'll provide a more extensive review for them. For now I'll just list the players by team and division so you can get an idea of other players likely to be used in the late innings:

Willis Roberts and Jorge Julio of Baltimore, and Rolando Viera of Boston;

Mark Lukasiewicz of Anaheim, and Francisco Cordero of Texas;

Guillermo Mota and Joe Davenport of Montreal, Adam Walker of New York, and Doug Nickle of Philadelphia;

Kyle Farnsworth and Scott Chiasson of Chicago, Craig Dingman and Luis Pineda of Cincinnati, Tom Shearn of Houston, and Valerio de los Santos of Milwaukee;

Jose Parra and Jose Valverde of Arizona, Matt Herges of Los Angeles, and Felix Diaz of San Francisco.

Lineups

I'll try to provide brief updates on some lineup decisions that affect player values.

Baltimore seems set with Gibbons/Cordova/Batista in either their 5-7 or 6-8 slots. Mike Bordick seems to have batted in every single lineup slot, but I'm still guessing that he'll wind up either 2nd, 8th, or 9th, depending on the starting catcher and the placement of Jerry Hairston. For now, assume Hairston 2nd, Bordick 8th, and Fordyce 9th.

Cleveland now appears likely to use Burks/Thome/Fryman/Branyan/Bradley in the heart of the lineup. They're still batting Lawton/Gutierrez 1-2 on most days, although Brady Anderson will likely find a couple dozen AB in almost every lineup slot. I wouldn't be surprised if they opened with Anderson/Vizquel/Lawton, followed by Burks/Thome/Fryman, but I still expect Vizquel down in the order and Anderson on the bench for most games.

Detroit has given strong indications that Mitch Meluskey will start at catcher if he's physically able to withstand catching most days. AA power prospect Mike Rivera might even wind up platooning with him. Brandon Inge will receive an appropriate demotion until he appears likely to maintain an OPS over even .500. I'd also expect Meluskey/Fick in the 6/7 lineup slots, although this could certainly change by Opening Day.

Oakland has temporarily anointed Jeremy Giambi and his .391 2001 OBP as their leadoff hitter. While this is a somewhat unconventional strategy, Giambi will definitely give them the most opportunities to score runs until Esteban German is ready.

Toronto is also considering batting Eric Hinske second for similar reasons. While I believe Homer Bush could very well have a decent season for roto purposes, I'd also be rather shocked if Bush was more than a run or two above replacement value. Meanwhile, Hinske brings a .361 MLE OPB to their lineup, giving them more chances to score runs in front of Mondesi/Delgado/Cruz.

In the National League, Chicago appears likely to use a platoon of Chris Stynes and Mark Bellhorn until Bill Mueller is healthy with Bellhorn; Bellhorn is a switch-hitter and should receive more AB than the right-handed Stynes if given the opportunity. The Cubs could also decide to keep Bobby Hill at 2B and then platoon DeShields with Stynes. As long as Corey Patterson starts showing some ability at the plate, he's the major benefactor of this move as the Cubs have been hitting him second for most of the last week. However, if Hill and DeShields both start, we'd certainly rather see them hitting 1-2 than to force Patterson into Baylor's favorite situational hitting lineup slot.

Cincinnati, despite the continued excellent performance of Brady Clark, seems determined to start Juan Encarnacion in right. Their Opening Day lineup will probably be Larkin/Dunn/Griffey/Casey/Boone/Walker/Encarnacion/LaRue, although they still might trade LaRue and start Corky Miller.

While Jose Ortiz should bat second for Colorado, he's been alternating in the 2/7 slots with Juan Uribe for the past week. You should still expect Ortiz to bat in front of Larry Walker for now, but we'll certainly monitor this situation.

Houston is now batting Daryle Ward second with Ensberg/probably Adam Everett/Ausmus at the end of the lineup. While this will likely reduce Ward's RBIs, he'll benefit from hitting between Biggio and Bagwell, and he'll also have more quality AB; 30/90 would be a reasonable projection at this point.

Cesar Izturis seems to be running away with Los Angeles' shortstop job, but given their recent lineups, he might find himself hitting either 1st or 2nd. I can't believe the Dodgers would bury LoDuca and Beltre in the 5-7 slots with Eric Karros while wasting the 1-2 slots on Izturis, Grudzielanek, or Goodwin/Grissom, but without any clear indication, you might want to dial back your AB projections for Beltre.

Montreal is giving Ron Calloway a long look in center this spring.

From my review of him in December: "Calloway's improved his SB% over the last couple of years but his plate discipline suffered dramatically in 2001 as he split the year between AA and AAA. Montreal foolishly promoted him when his .919 OPS was relatively unsupported by a 24:46 BB:K ratio in 279 at-bats. He needs to go back and spend at least another half season mastering AA before any more AAA exposure. He retains the potential to emerge as a decent fourth outfielder and perhaps even a leadoff option. Teams must be more careful in promoting prospects before they've had the chance to truly excel at a level."

I'd be quite surprised if he won the job over even Lance Johnson or Endy Chavez, and Montreal really should just give Bergeron another half season or more to prove himself.

Philadelphia is now apparently going to hit Doug Glanville second again, so bump up his AB projections back over 600 while slightly reducing RBI opportunities for Abreu and Rolen. Bowa has also indicated that he's likely to use a different batting order against lefties and righties, although Rollins and Glanville should bat 1-2 in both alignments. Against RHP, expect Abreu/Rolen/T.Lee/Burrell/Anderson/Lieberthal; against LHP, expect Rolen/Abreu/Burrell/T.Lee/Lieberthal/Anderson. While this might change by the end of Spring Training, I wouldn't be surprised if they kept this arrangement, at least until Lieberthal's seemingly annual injury.

Finally, San Diego is now considering D'Angelo Jimenez in a dead heat with Damian Jackson for 2B, with Ramon Vazquez and Deivi Cruz also in a similar position. I'd be shocked if Vazquez didn't start after they traded Ben Davis for him, and I also hope they recognize that they need Jimenez leadoff if they don't want to open most games with Kotsay/Burroughs/Klesko, an unacceptable lefty-only arrangement, especially in a division with Randy, Ishii, and Hampton. You should still expect Jimenez/Kotsay in 1-2 with Burroughs/Vazquez/Gonzalez in 6-8, although Damian Jackson will likely find at least 300 AB by the end of the year.

I'll have our NL LABR review over the next two days.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Speaking of Expert Leagues, the Tout Wars draft will be held at the Quality Inn Meadowlands in Lyndhurst, NJ. Check out the Tout Wars homepage for more information.

Even if you don't feel like sitting through two drafts, we strongly recommend the First Pitch-New York seminar to anyone in that area. We really enjoyed the FP-Chicago back in February, and while we're not able to fly out to the coast this weekend, we definitely suggest that you check out tomorrow night's forum if you have the chance. More information is available here.