Today's Fantasy Rx

Most of our readers are familiar with Ron Shandler's LIMA plan. We strongly recommend checking out either Baseball Forecaster or this year's Rotowire Fantasy Baseball Guide to read his thorough description. The short version is to only budget $60 towards pitching, spend half that money on saves, and then draft the minimum possible IP among pitchers with the following qualifications: K:B of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, and HR/9 of 1.0-. You should then spend the remaining $200 to draft a balanced offense, so you'll hopefully finish 1st in all the batting categories, very high in ERA and WHIP, and in the top 3rd in saves, giving you around 70-75 points and a good shot at first overall.

The standard adaptation of LIMA to a straight draft is to spend almost all of your first dozen picks or so on hitting with the exception of a closer sometime in the middle of those rounds. Then grab high-skills' pitchers in the teens, and finish by drafting several solid middle relievers who could gain saves but should have solid ERA/WHIP with some vultured wins.

For the last couple of years we've followed that basic strategy in our straight drafts, although we invariably pick two closers, usually drafting one no later than the third round. When we've deviated from that philosophy, we normally slip to third or worse by the end of the year.

The only major difference is that our LIMA rankings are a little looser than the standard guidelines. We look for a K:BB of 1.9 or better, a K/9 of 5.8 or better, and a HR/9 of 1.2 or lower; we tend to grab a few more pitchers with solid skills but only one minor weakness in their games.

Another great roto tool invented by Ron Shandler is the Pure Quality Start. The standard Quality Start (6+ IP with 3 or less ER) doesn't really focus on pitchers' skills, so Ron came up with a simple 5-point system for starting pitchers. Again we direct you to Forecaster since they provide complete PQS logs of almost every starting pitchers, but you need to know the basics to understand our picks. A pitcher receives 1 point for pitching 6+ IP, 1 point for allowing no more hits than IP, 1 point for total strikeouts no less than IP-2, 1 point for a K:BB of 2+, and 1 point for allowing no more than one home run. Any pitcher failing to go at least 5 IP receives a total score of 0.

In last year's Wise Guy Baseball, Gene McCaffrey classified these PQS scores to give us a better indication of a pitcher's true level of skill. He labeled scores of 4 and 5 as "dominance", and 0 or 1 as "disaster". McCaffrey then formulated a dominance(DOM) rating as a percentage of total starts, along with a similar disaster(DIS) rating. Any pitcher with a DOM of 50 or higher demonstrated great skills in their starts, and anybody with a DIS of 20 or less avoided ugly blowouts.

We combined our LIMA modification with the DOM/DIS ratings to develop a simple alphanumerical formula by which we can quickly analyze the couple hundred NL pitchers during drafts.

For the modified LIMA skill requirements, we separated 2001 into 1st and 2nd half ratios along with examining the yearlong numbers from 2000 and 1999. Any pitcher with the acceptable ratios(1.9+ K:BB, 5.8+ K/9, and 1.2- HR/9) in the second half of 2001 earned a "1", those skills in the first half of 2001 earned a "2", 2000 was a "3" and 1999 a "4".

The only pitchers to earn a complete "1234" rating currently in the NL are Randy Johnson, Robb Nen, Scott Strickland, Glendon Rusch, and Felix Rodriguez. Almost every other top dollar pitcher in the league hit on at least one of those numbers. The top 5x5 pitchers without any ranking were Brian Tollberg, Robert Person, and Mike Williams.

We also wanted to incorporate the rather new PQS logs into our quick glance analysis, so we added notation for any pitchers with a DOM of 50+ or a DIS of 20- in either 2001, 2000, or 1999. Pitchers with that DOM qualification in 2001 received an "a", a "b" in 2000, and a "c" in 1999. Pitchers with that DIS qualification in 2001 receives an "x", a "y" in 2000, and a "z" for 1999.

Unsurprisingly, the only NL starters to complete this alphabet soup with an "abcxyz" ranking were Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. Another eight pitchers managed five of the six "points": Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Jon Lieber, Al Leiter, Hideo Nomo, Kevin Millwood, Woody Williams, and Shane Reynolds.

For further example, Randy Johnson's complete ranking was 1234abcxyz, Schilling's was 134abcxyz, Kerry Wood was 12abx, and Rick Ankiel was 34bcyz.

The simplicity of this code is that, in only ten characters or less, you can quickly observe not only a pitcher's skill level and accompanying trend over the last three years, you also can observe the relative consistency of starters.

While we're going to just call it LPR, a reabbreviation of LIMAPQS Rating, for now, we'd also be interested if anyone wanted to suggest a more appropriate name.

We noted this shorthand right on our spreadsheet next to our player values and employed it in conjunction with our Draft Values when we began selecting pitching in the 12th round.

Through 11 rounds, we'd secured a solid foundation in all offensive categories, especially BA and speed. We lacked a catcher, two outfielders, and a utilityman, along with 8 pitchers and 4 reserves.

Instead of drafting all relievers and basically punting wins and strikeouts, we decided to still attempt to draft a balanced but riskier team in the hopes of winning this year rather than settling for a safe third or worse. Along with filling out our offense relatively quickly, we wanted to pick up several quality starters and a few consistent middle relievers with at least great skills if not closer potential.

Of the five NL pitchers with a perfect 1234, Randy and Nen went a respective 1st and 26th overall, we'd already drafted Strickland, and we wanted a quality starter at this point rather than acquiring Felix Rodriguez. So we selected Glendon Rusch(1234by) to anchor our staff.

Unfortunately, our next four potential picks quickly fell in Juan Cruz, Octavio Dotel, Brandon Duckworth, and Felix Rodriguez. Brian Lawrence, an erstwhile sleeper in some leagues, had gone just before our Rusch pick. We settled on Brian Tollberg, who while only possessing an x LPR, still posts very solid K:BB and HR/9 ratios; his K/9 is a little low, but we were merely looking to compete in strikeouts at this time, and we needed a solid ERA/WHIP source.

Steve Trachsel was taken, and we eagerly picked up Ruben Quevedo in the 14th round over Jason Bere. Quevedo managed a solid 12ax last year, while the latter only posted a 2a. We'll happily take Quevedo's relatively solid 7.3-9.5 K/9 over the last three years, rather than Bere's fluctuating 6.4-8.8 in the same period.

With a decent rotation secure, we spent our next pick on Ray Lankford as the last remaining relatively consistent power source on the board.

Returning to starting pitching in the 16th round, we chanced a pick on Albie Lopez over Carlos Hernandez, mostly because of the superior stadium situation in Atlanta. Lopez did manage a 1y LPR, and his ratios in Arizona were rather impressive: 2.9 K:BB, 7.7 K/9, and a 1.1 HR/9. Considering the success that Leo Mazzone had with John Burkett, we expect Lopez to post at least a respectable $10 value this year, and possibly several dollars more.

We watched most of the remaining outfielders go at this time: Tsuyoshi Shinjo, Peter Bergeron, Eric Owens(our probable next pick), Danny Bautista, Tom Goodwin, Marvin Benard, Brad Wilkerson, and Brian L. Hunter. As we needed to grab one before everyone was gone, we picked up one of the great SB sleepers in the majors, Kerry Robinson, the Cardinals' probable 4th outfielder. He stole 11 bases last year in only 186 AB of playing time, and his year-long minor league totals have ranged from 40 to 50 over the previous five years. We certainly anticipate at least 20 SB, and with the depth of the rest of our offensive, hopefully we'll be able to consider converting Pierre into a boost for other, weaker areas later in the year.

There were no starters in particular catching our eye at the moment, so we then took Brad Ausmus, who had somehow fallen all the way down to the 18th round. Now Greg Zaun certainly has more upside, but he's hurting, Houston appears committed to Ausmus, and he certainly has the ability to earn $10, especially in that lineup and stadium. As our entire lineup was now complete aside from UT, we decided to return to pitching as long as possible.

About this time in the draft we also found out that we did not have to draft a whole team in the first 23 picks; as long as we somehow filled every position by the end of the reserve rounds and Round 27, we could draft any one we wanted.

Our idea this year is to use the Challenge strategy, adapted for roto by Gene McCaffrey, of rotating pitchers based on match-ups and whomever receives two starts in a given week, as a pitcher can't win two games if he doesn't start twice. So not only did we want to grab a few more starters, we needed some solid middle relievers when we had two guys each making a single start in Coors.

We also wanted to grab some potential closers, so we kept our focus on pitchers' potential throughout a time when players like Mike Matheny were actually drafted.

In Round 19, we grabbed Brett Tomko, 1 LPR but with the chance of breaking out in the pitcher's haven of San Diego. As long as we avoid his trips to Coors, he should be a nice addition to our starting corp.

In Round 20, we picked up Dave Veres, 23 LPR with a chance of closing in some place like Los Angeles or Baltimore by the end of the year..

We decided take a chance on Bruce Chen with our next pick, since he'll likely produce solid numbers even in relief, and considering the history of injuries on the Mets' staff, we suspect he'll find more than a few starts by the end of the year. His K/9 has varied between 7.5 and 9.6 over the past four years.

Looking for more potential saves, we took perhaps our riskiest player in Round 22: Vladimir Nunez. Florida no longer needs him to start, and his career relief ratios are respectable: 1.8 K:BB, 6.9 K/9, and .6 HR/9. His 2001 numbers were even better overall with a 2.3 K:BB, 6.5 K/9, and .7 HR/9.

Compare those to Braden Looper, both over his career(1.4 K:BB, 5.4 K/9, and .8 HR/9) and in 2001(1.6 K:BB, 6.6 K/9, and 1.0 HR/9). If Alfonseca is dealt and they choose to neither hand the reigns directly to Blaine Neal nor try someone like A.J. Burnett as closer while Kevin Olsen or Chuck Smith starts, Nunez seems poised to perform quite decently for a few months.

With our last non-reserve pick, we're going to highlight our #1 2002 Pitching Sleeper. This guy first came to our attention last September when noticed the following PQS trend, beginning August 11th: 5,4,0,5,5). We began to pay more attention to him, and he continued in September with 5,0,5,4,4). He managed a 5 and 4 back when he was first called up at the end of June, but this kind of potential reminds us of another sleeper we bought at one dollar in two different leagues a year ago.

Joe Mays in the second half of 2000, including his MLEs: 2.6 K:BB, 7.0 K/9, and 0.7 HR/9.
Joe Mays' PQS trend in the second half of 2000: 1,4,5,0,0,0,3,3,4; relatively unimpressive, but he still showed some indication of skill.

#1 2002 Pitching Sleeper in the second half of 2001: 2.0 K:BB, 5.9 K/9, 1.6 K:BB
#1 2002 Pitching Sleeper over all of 2001, including MLEs: 2.3 K:BB, 7.2 K/9, and 1.3 HR/9.

While I'd still feel better if he gave up less homers, his spring performance so far allows us to firmly recommend Cincinnati's Jose Acevedo as a potential $15 pitcher if everything breaks right for him. We knew he'd fall in most leagues because of his poor surface numbers in the majors of a 5.44 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, but we believe he should establish himself as a very reliable roto pitcher.

By the time of our 1st reserve pick, the only half-decent starting pitcher left was Omar Daal, who was only a 4cz, indicating little skill over the last two years. As we already owned six to seven starters depending on the status of Chen, we decided to bulk up our relatively unimpressive bullpen.

We added former closer Mike Trombley(1.5 LPR - he compiled the required ratios over the entirety of 2001 but had command problems in the first half and allowed too many homers in the second, thus earning neither one nor two outright) and his 8.1-9.0 K/9 over the last five years with this pick.

With our third-to-last selection, we grabbed super sleeper Vicente Padilla(123 LPR) and a 7.5 K/9 over the last two years; we could gain another potential asset if he wins Phillies' 5th starters' job, but we'll be pleased if he can grab a few IP a week in middle relief.

For our next-to-last pick, we rounded out our pitching staff by selecting Jason Christiansen(123 LPR) over fellow lefties Scott Sauerbeck(1 LPR but a 9.48 K/9 over the last three years that no one seems to notice) and Aaron Fultz, who's posted consistent MLE k/9 of 8.1-8.5 over a similar period. Christiansen is more secure in his job and also his more upside, so we felt he was the safer pick.

So with our extended pitching staff complete, we needed one more offensive player to fill out our team. We had hoped someone like Roosevelt Brown or Brady Clark would have fallen to us at a slightly earlier pick, but we were late on both of them. After a bit of deliberation, we finally settled upon the ageless yet still available Julio Franco as our UT guy. We'll be quite surprised if he doesn't make the team, and while he won't hurt us if he does, he's also easily replaceable if he doesn't.

Our Drafted 2002 FSICNL Roster
C: Jason Kendall and Brad Ausmus
CR: Sean Casey, Chipper Jones, and Tino Martinez
MI: Delino DeShields, Edgar Renteria, and Marlon Anderson
OF: Shawn Green, Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, Ray Lankford, and Kerry Robinson
UT: Julio Franco

Starters: Glendon Rusch, Brian Tollberg, Ruben Quevedo, Albie Lopez, Brett Tomko, Jose Acevedo, and maybe Bruce Chen

Relievers: Scott Strickland, Dave Veres, Vladimir Nunez, Mike Trombley, Vicente Padilla, and Jason Christiansen

Any comments that you might have on our strategy or roster certainly would be welcome; I hope you've found this report useful.

I still haven't decided on the next few days of articles. In the immediate future, I want to write up last Sunday's draft, another Bullpen and Lineup updates, the NL LABR review once the reserve rosters are released tomorrow, a review of Baseballmanager.com, and of course, our 2002 projected statistics, which we'll make available as soon as we complete them.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Make sure you have enough time to prepare for each of your leagues. Before the FSICNL draft began in the morning, we were asked to be back-up owners in case someone didn't show for the AL draft, which began immediately following the first one. Well, we were surprisingly needed and assigned the 8th pick, for which we came thisclose to drafting Magglio Ordonez before the original owner showed up and we could leave. We wouldn't have minded the additional draft, but we would have drafted only off our existing AL knowledge without proper preparation. I doubt it would have been a disaster, but it was also hardly an ideal situation.