Today's Fantasy Rx

As previously stated, John Zaleski of Ultimate Fantasy Sports was kind enough to send me a relatively complete reserve roster from the AL LABR draft. Baseball Weekly hasn't bothered posting the reserve rosters for either league, but thanks to John, we'll be able to review last weekend's AL draft over this weekend.

You can click here to see my review of the first six listed teams from last weekend's draft.

Please refer to the LABR American League rosters here.

To make this a little easier for those of you following along on the site, I'll review the teams in the order that the website lists them.

Owner: Nate Ravitz
Site: Roto Times
$ Left: $0.
Split: $172H/$88P = 66/34.
Reserve roster: Chad Harville, Jose Offerman, Todd Van Poppel, Cory Bailey, Wilson Alvarez, and Jason Hart.
Audio Review Summary from website: He wished he spent more early, not gone $16 on Ventura when guys like Fryman went for $6, and wanted more help in the middle infield. He didn't think he overspent on Ichiro($34) or Beltran($32), as Ichiro should earn over $40 again.

Nice pick: Ichiro($34); I complete agree with his assessment and believe this was one of the best buys of the draft.
Top sleeper: Eric Hiljus($4); he doesn't quite have the skills of Lidle, but he has enough talent to have a similar season to Lidle's 2000.
Potential bust: Carlos Beltran($32); Beltran's skills are still fairly shallow and Neifi Perez hitting 2nd won't help him with RBIs at all.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Chad Harville, Jason Hart, Mike Jackson($8), and as much as I like him, Bobby Kielty($1).
Early bad luck: Geronimo Gil's play might leave Fordyce($1) on the bench.
Category to trade: Expensive Royals' hitters (Beltran and Sweeney($30), although the latter will earn his salary).

While I really like most of his high dollar players like Ichiro, Sweeney, Edgar Martinez($19), Roger Clemens($20), and Ugueth Urbina(only $21), I'm very concerned about Beltran and Ventura, although he has enough roster flexibility to compensate for weak seasons by both of them. Van Poppel should grab at least a half dozen wins in middle relief, and he certainly has good sleepers in Menechino($3), Winn($5), Greer($6), and Hitchcock($4).

Summary: Although he drafted a fairly balanced team and has a lot of potential wins from middle relief(Van Poppel, Karsay, Mendoza), he'll need a great trade or two to make the Top 3.

Owner: Michael Brown
Site: "Regular Guy"
$ Left: $0.
Split: $194H/$66P = 75/25.
Reserve roster: Matt Riley, Gil Meche, Jon Rauch, Josh Paul, ???, Mark Teixeira.
Audio Review Summary from website: He grabbed Jeter($29) after ARod and Tejada went above his price range; he wanted a strong MIF but wasn't completely satisfied with Hairston($13) and Bordick($4). While he didn't plan on focusing on his OF, he's pleased with the results. He also thinks he overpaid for Tony Batista@$17. This is the first time in four years of LABR that he's picked up a closer.

Nice pick: Darrin Fletcher@$4; his BA should rebound and this is a great price for a potential double-digit catcher.
Top sleeper: Jon Rauch; he's one of the only impressive White Sox pitchers in camp and could dominate if healthy.
Potential bust: Jeff Weaver@$15; as I've repeatedly stated, he's due for a major injury soon.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Meche and Teixeira.
Early bad luck: Shea Hillenbrand($4) appears to have competition for his starting spot in Carlos Baerga and Shane Andrews; perhaps they're washed up, but Boston looks like they'll strongly consider at least one of them to start.
Category to trade: He'll need to deal RBI from somewhere to try to boost his BA.

His pitching staff is filled with risks: Weaver, David Wells($8), James Baldwin($6), Ramon Ortiz($5), El Ducky($3), and Sidney Ponson($2). Very few of his offensive players have any grasp of the strike zone. While he certainly has enough raw talent to contend if everything breaks his way, he also seems very vulnerable to injury and age. Of course, I've also seen mostly veteran-laden teams win it all in competitive leagues, but there just seems to be too much risk here across the board.

Summary: I'm going to hedge my bets and say he'll finish solidly, but just outside of the Top 4.

Owner: Rick Wolf
Site: All-Star Stats
$ Left: $6.
Split: $185H/$69P = 71/29.
Reserve roster: Ryan Anderson, Darrell May, Karim Garcia, Lorzenzo Barcelo, Antonio Osuna, and Ted Lilly.
Audio Review Summary from website: He wanted Mussina and got him at $32. Wolf also had planned on Soriano($24) and either Glaus or Chavez($29), so he seems to have executed his basic strategy very nicely. He thinks Soriano and "AL MVP" Paul Konerko($24) were bargains. He wisely plans to rotate his pitchers and drafted five $1 pitchers along with five reserves, and he expects to get good WHIP from Luis Vizcaino($1), Matt Ginter($1), and B.J. Ryan($1).

Nice pick: Willis Roberts($4); a ridiculously great price for an announced closer, especially as he pitched quite well out of the pen in September.
Top sleeper: Jeff Liefer@$2; another guy who could go 20/80 with somewhat regular playing time.
Potential bust: Jon Garland@$1; I'm very worried he could begin the season quite poorly, doing noticeable damage to Wolf's ERA/WHIP.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): perhaps Adam Johnson, Matt Ginter, and Karim Garcia.
Early bad luck: Cristian Guzman@$20 is still recovering from his 2001 injuries.
Category to trade: Saves if Roberts can hold onto the job.

This roster has everything except great talent in the outfield as none of Liefer, Jacque Jones($19), Terrence Long($15), Raul Ibanez($2), or Orlando Palmeiro($1) particularly impresses me. His pitching looks fairly loaded with potentially great middle relievers like Mike Stanton($1) and Antonio Osuna. He also acquired a tremendous number of live arms like Ryan Anderson and Ted Lilly who could wind up boosting his wins.

Summary: If he can FAAB even two solid players over the course of the year, he should be able to be near the lead for the entire year. This team is loaded with young but mostly proven talent on offense, and a lot of pitchers who at least shouldn't hurt him. I still can't believe he picked up Roberts for $4, even if he does lose his job before Opening Day.

Owner: John Zaleski
Site: Ultimate Fantasy Sports
$ Left: $0.
Split: $187H/$73P = 72/28.
Reserve roster: Mario Ramos, Alfredo Amezaga, Scott Schoeneweis, Dave McCarty, Jason Grimsley, and Joe Mauer.
Audio Review Summary from website: Fullmer($14) should be an $18-20 value and he grabbed him early. $9 Sele should be a good deal as Anaheim has a 20ft wall in RF and is kind to RHP (John is from Anaheim). He thought Matt Anderson($26) might go for $30 later so he grabbed him before inflation.

While some people have questioned John's $13 Shawn Wooten at 1B, here's his explanation: "Don't rip my pick of Wooten to much :-).. I was stuck with $17 and 5 picks left, and all the SS, MI, and P's left to pick up that I needed were all only a buck or two. Nate Ravitz actually bid $12 for him as a C. We were two of three that had any $$ left at the end..."

Nice pick: Magglio Ordonez@$37; he appears poised for a truly monster MVP-caliber season.
Top sleeper: Mike Cuddyer@$3; if he wins a starting job, he could easily produce 20/80 or more.
Potential bust: Eddie Guardado@$17; while he has good skills, we're still not sold on his ability to keep the job past April.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Mario Ramos, Alfredo Amezaga, and Joe Mauer; I don't expect any of them to play more than a handful of games, and expect them to be FAAB'd off his roster by Tax Day.
Early bad luck: Brian Roberts($1) heading back to start at AAA instead of providing a cheap dozen SB in Baltimore.
Category to trade: Saves, with Anderson, Guardado, Arthur Rhodes($7), Chad Bradford($2), Jeff Nelson($4), Jack Cressend($1 - best arm in that pen, and a great hedge against Guardado), and Jason Grimsley.

A couple people had pointed out the Wooten pick to me specifically, so I certainly hope John manages to deal Guardado for a solid 1B before Cressend takes over the job; Wooten can just shift to catcher for the likely injured Sandy Alomar($2). He has a significant amount of offensive talent, a great ERA/WHIP base in relief, and a decent chance of finishing in the money. Aside from picking up Guardado, he actually came closest of any AL owner to successfully executing a LIMA plan.

Summary: While I didn't like his roster at first glance, I see a lot of potential here. If he gets good seasons out of Cirillo($18) and Kapler($22), he'll be in the hunt until the end.

Owner: Bill Moore & Ed Cagle
Site: National Sports Management
$ Left: $0.
Split: $172H/$88P = 66/34.
Reserve roster: Drew Henson, Juan Pena, Mike Sirotka, Randall Simon, ???, Rafael Soriano.
Bill's Audio Review Summary from website: They planned to acquire Troy Glaus($30) and Keith Foulke($32) at any price. They grabbed Hinske for $8; Moore is Hinske's agent. They think Bob File ($3) was a bargain, Paul Wilson($8) will break-out, and Cory Lidle($16) should continue to be great in roto.
Ed's Audio Review Summary from website: They drafted a balanced team with good sleepers in Hinske and Victor Zambrano($8). They've had bad ERA/WHIP in the past but they're pleased this year.

Nice pick: Cory Lidle@$16; if he stays healthy, a fairly reasonable assumption, he'll cruise over $20.
Top sleeper: Josh Phelps@$2 if he somehow makes the team as at least a platoon DH.
Potential bust: Troy Glaus@$30; hitting 5th behind Garret Anderson, he might hit 45 HR with only 90 RBIs..
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Henson, Pena, Sirotka, and Soriano.
Early bad luck: Mike Lamb($6) appears about to lose his job to Blalock, Perry, or even Sprague
Category to trade: Speed.

While their top players are all reasonable gambles, I don't think almost anyone on this team will earn more than a few bucks on these salaries. I'm also worried that many of these players could end up no better than part-time players and could also earn significantly less than their cost. Their reserve roster seems fairly unlikely to see much time in the majors at all, so they'll need to start FAABing early to stay with the pack.

Summary: While there's talent on this team, I don't see enough upside to secure a first division finish.

Owner: John Hunt
Site: Baseball Weekly
$ Left: $0.
Split: $183H/$77P = 70/30.
Reserve roster: Joe Borchard, Chad Durbin, Chris George, Jose Lima, ???, Blake Stein.
Audio Review Summary from website: He's pleased with Damon's($29) SB potential as well as his Minnesota starters(Radke($19) and Milton($18)). While he didn't draft a starter and hoped for a closer early, he settled for drafting several potential closer bargains in Shuey($3), Jorge Julio($3), John Rocker($6), and LaTroy Hawkins($1). His bargains were Milton Bradley($2(and probably a promise to establish Family Game Night in the Hunt household)) and his $11 Hank Blalock, which he'll certainly earn if he wins the starting job.

Nice pick: Jeremy Giambi@$12 looks poised for a great breakout season even if he bats leadoff.
Top sleeper: Jim Mecir@$4; he still appears to have the most talent in the Oakland pen and could steal several saves if Koch continues his ineffectiveness from 2001.
Potential bust: LaTroy Hawkins; he has this nasty habit of seriously injuring your ERA/WHIP, and I don't expect him to see save opps. any time soon.
Wasted picks (that won't contribute in the majors): Joe Borchard.
Early bad luck: Chris George is having a bad spring and might even head back down to the minors
Category to trade: Homers, especially if Eric Munson($5) finds any playing time.

While there's a lot to like on this team and he definitely has enough talent to contend, he's banking on a lot of playing time situations breaking his way, especially with Blalock, Munson, and Ruben Sierra($7). I think his bullpen strategy will yield at least one closer and I think he has the offensive core necessary to remain competitive. However, I also wonder if he lost a bet to Rob Neyer and had to take three Royals' pitchers on reserve; actually, all five that I know are from the AL Central, an interesting concentration of talent that mirrors the rest of his roster with Thome($24), D.Young($21), Pierzynski($8), Royce Clayton($7), Shane Halter($6), Munson, Bradley, Radke, Milton, Shuey, and Hawkins.

Summary: If he winds up with two closers by June, he'll be in the race until the end. Otherwise he'll need a couple of great trades to stay in the top four.

So now that I've critiqued these twelve rosters, I should probably offer my picks for the top finishers. Based on my reviews, you can likely tell that I'm fairly confident in the rosters of Rick Wolf and John Zaleski. I'm leaning towards Irwin Zwilling and Lenny Melnick for 3rd by a small amount over John Coleman or Gene McCaffrey and John Menna.

While any of these teams could finish first, I believe Wolf and Zaleski to finish 1-2. Good luck to all the participants, and I'll look forward to examining the results at the end of the year.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Has anything from Spring Training caught your eye? If there's a particular player or situation that you'd like me to discuss in a column later this week, please write me and let me know your preferences.