Today's Fantasy Rx

While I still have one more on-line game to review, I'm going to save that tomorrow because I haven't been able to write about actual players for almost three weeks now.

As previously mentioned, we keep track of Games Finished stats during Spring Training. We only count GF with exactly 1 IP since that's the length of a typical closer outing.

We also keep a sheet of lineups, updated every day or so, that we also use for each of our drafts. I plan on discussing our draft sheets in the very near future, but there's too much information about players that I want to cover first.

I expect to update this article every week through the end of Spring Training to give you an idea of how player's roles evolve over the course of camp.

Potential Closers

Three pitchers have pitched one inning to complete games in the first week of Spring Training: Cincinnati RHP Jim Brower, San Francisco LHP Chad Zerbe, and Oakland RHP Matt Miller.

Brower pitched 129.1 IP last year in 46 games, starting 10 of those; he compiled a 94:60 K:BB in 129.1 IP with 119 H and 17 HR, so he appears to have some problems with control and the long ball. These numbers are relatively consistent with his career and past MLEs.

Looking at his breakdown between starting and relieving, he posted a 33:20 K:BB in 49.1 IP with 62 H and 11 HR in his 10 starts. None of his starts showed much potential dominance, and he only managed 7 IP once. As a reliever, he compiled a 61:40 K:BB in 80 IP with only 57 H and 6 HR, along with a 2.70 ERA compared to 6.02 as a starter. A brief examination of his 1st half/2nd half splits shows that he just appeared to wear down in the second half.

Graves, Sullivan, Gabe White, and probably Scott Williamson all have bullpen jobs secured. With all the competition in the rotation and likely plethora of young starters, Cincy will need someone to occasionally pitch a few IP in relief. Brower seems perfectly suited for that role, and while I doubt he'd close over any of the other four options listed, he might pick up a couple of 3 IP saves.

Chad Zerbe doesn't have anywhere near the talent of fellow lefties Jason Christiansen or Aaron Fultz. The former will be the primary Giant lefty as he's compiled a 318:161 K:BB in 321 IP with 289 H and 26 HR over his seven year career, excellent numbers and potentially even closer-caliber. Fultz's MLEs over the past three years have shown a K/9 rate between 8.1 and 8.5 with a K:BB ratio of between 2.2 and 3.2.

Zerbe's K/9 in the same period of ranged from 2.8 up to 4.9 K/9 last year, with a K:BB ratio of 1.0 moving up to 1.9 in 2001. Even a horrible spring by Fultz shouldn't cost him his role in the bullpen, so Zerbe will likely head back to AAA.

The Giants are nicely set with Nen, Felix Rodriguez, and Christiansen in the late innings, and they have Jay Witasick, Tim Worrell, and Fultz for middle relief. Zerbe's only chance is to beat out Manny Aybar, Ryan Jensen, Joe Nathan, and potentially even Kurt Ainsworth (if the Giants acquire El Ducky from the Yankees) for a potential 12th pitcher slot. Assuming Kent is healthy for Opening Day, the choices for a 14th offensive player include Calvin Murray, Damon Minor, Nelson Castro, Cody Ransom, or a third catcher, likely Edwards Guzman as he can play several other positions.

With Dusty Baker's love of maximizing match-up advantages, I'd expect one of the first three players to be kept instead of a 12th pitcher, so don't expect Zerbe in San Francisco until either September or until one of the pitchers hits the DL.

Matt Miller is a 29-year-old minor league veteran who spent last year with San Diego's AAA Portland team in the Pacific Coast League. He's never made the majors in six years of professional baseball, although he posted excellent numbers in a tough league for pitchers in 2001, including a 43:14 K:BB in 45 IP with 44 H and 1 HR.

While he appears to be a capable potential middle reliever, I doubt Oakland will have any room for him until September. All five rotation spots are secure with Mike Fyhrie as the nominal alternate. Even if Oakland trades one of their three lefties in Holtz, Magnante, and Venafro, they still have Koch, Mecir, and Tam signed to significant contracts. Chad Bradford and Luis Vizcaino are both out of options and each could record a strikeout per inning. Chad Harville also likely deserves a shot in the majors but will likely compete with Bert Snow for the closer's job at AAA Sacramento. So Miller will likely spend another year in AAA, likely as a set-up man for prospects with more power potential.

Lineups

I'll try to provide brief updates on some lineup decisions that affect player values.

Anaheim will likely keep a set lineup of Eckstein/Erstad/Salmon/Anderson/Glaus/Fullmer/1B/Molina/Kennedy almost every day. Spiezio and Wooten will likely be in a straight platoon at first. The most significant changes here are that Erstad and Salmon's value increase due to better RBI slots and Fullmer's value increases as he'll likely receive full-time AB despite a career .648 OPS against lefties. More importantly, Troy Glaus' value takes a big hit as he'll bat after one of the worst everyday OBPs in baseball; I wouldn't be surprised to see 45 HR with only 95 RBI and runs, a horrible waste of one of the top 3B in the game. As the Angels have a significant amount of talented pitching depth, this line-up order may keep them buried in 4th place behind Texas.

Baltimore appears to be set in the top 4 slots with Hairston/Singleton/Segui/Conine. Segui will DH to rest his chronic knee problems while Conine will likely start mostly at 1B. They'll likely be followed by either Batista/Gibbons/Cordova/Bordick/C or Gibbons/Cordova/Batistia/Bordick/C. The latter line-up makes much more sense as Gibbons probably has the only long-term power upside on the entire roster; he'll play RF while Cordova mans left in the first year of a ridiculous three-year deal. Slightly increase Conine's value as he'll hit behind a relatively decent OBP in Segui instead of the drain of Singleton, and Gibbons should see a jump as well since he should see most of his AB behind Segui and Conine, the only decent veteran hitters on this team.

Cleveland still hasn't determined any set position in their line-up other than giving strong indications that catcher Einar Diaz will hit ninth. I believe that this doesn't make nearly as much sense as hitting a speed guy like Vizquel, Bradley, or even Gutierrez ninth as a "second" lead-off man ahead of either Lawton or Anderson. This doesn't really affect anyone's value, other than dropping Diaz's projected AB by another 25 or so, further depressing his limited value.

Colorado has been expected to begin with Pierre/Ortiz/Walker/Helton/Zeile/LF(Hollandsworth/Agbayani) and nothing this spring has changed those expectations. There's some good news/bad news for Petrick owners in that he appears to have improved defensively, securing his starting job, although he's also been hitting eighth with Juan Uribe in the #7 slot. Expect less RBI from Petrick despite a potential increase in AB.

Detroit seems likely to begin with Macias/Easley/Higginson/D.Young, and they appear more comfortable with Palmer/Fick in the 5/6 slots instead of the other way around. Meluskey will also see time in that area when Palmer is injured, so you may want to downgrade Fick slightly due to less AB and potentially increased IBB as he'll likely bat in front of Halter or Paquette.

Florida will likely jump back to the front of the NL in steals. Torborg's new lineup reads Castillo/P.Wilson/Floyd/Millar/Lowell/De.Lee/C.Johnson/A.Gonzalez. The two biggest jumps in value likely belong to Wilson and Millar, as the former can focus on HR/RBI instead of driving in runs while the latter gets the clean-up slot in the middle of still-young and developing offense.

Kansas City's made a small change to their expected line-up. While they're still using Knoblauch/N.Perez/Beltran/Sweeney/Tucker/Randa/Ibanez, they're now finishing with Mayne/Febles instead of Febles/Mayne, a move that should increase both player's value by a dollar or two as Mayne will have slightly better RBI opportunities while Febles will be able to run more.

Other than Los Angeles likely leading off with their CF, batting Green/Jordan in the 3/4 slots, and the shortstop, likely Cesar Izturis, batting 8th, the other four slots are completely in the air. Karros will likely hit 5th or 6th, although Lo Duca and Beltre could both hit anywhere in the line-up. Hope that Jim Tracy keeps Grudzielanek in the #7 slot, and Beltre/Lo Duca can slot 2/5, but it's still too early in camp to make sense of this mess.

Milwaukee's been consistently batting probable starting 3B Tyler Houston ahead of Jose Hernandez, a move that will reduce the latter's RBI chances but also minimize the damage of his BA on your team.

Montreal manager Frank Robinson appears comfortable with keeping Orlando Cabrera in a power slot, although Lee Stevens will probably hit clean-up most of the time. Canseco also might be in the mess, so Cabrera owners will be lucky if 2/3 of his AB are in the 5th slot. Of course, he also might be able to run more if Stevens and Canseco's inning-ending AB leave Cabrera leading-off the following IP.

Oakland wisely appears to be considering Jeremy Giambi for the lead-off slot, a decision that should maximize their OBP until Esteban German is ready to start. Expect a line-up of Giambi/Tejada/Chavez/Dye/Justice/Long/Hernandez/Pena/Menechino until about the All-Star break, when a prepared German and the high OBP of Pena will necessitate some change. The immediate impact is that Giambi's RBI total takes a bit hit, and he'll have to compensate with an OBP closer to .400 to hold onto his job against Adam Piatt, Eric Byrnes, and a potential acquisition of Jack Cust.

Seattle appears to prefer Cirillo in the #2 hole, and their recent lineups have begun Ichiro/Cirillo/Edgar/Olerud/Boone/Cameron, likely followed by LF/C/Guillen. Don't expect much improvement in Cirillo's RBI, although his runs should see a nice boost.

Texas appears to be favoring IRod/ARod/Gonzalez/Palmeiro/Everett in the #2-6 slots, with Catalanotto/Kapler/Greer splitting LF/DH in the #1 and #7 holes, Lamb 8th, and Mike Young 9th. Even if Hank Blalock makes the team, I expect he'll hit in the same slot. The most significant move here is to upgrade JuanGone's RBI potential hitting behind the best player in the game and in front of one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball. One hundred seventy-five RBI might be possible if he stays healthy considering the depth of OPS on this team.

Finally, Toronto's been using Stewart/Bush/Mondesi/Delgado/Cruz to begin the game, and on most days, they've followed with Hinske/V.Wells/Fletcher/F.Lopez. None of these players should see great RBI opportunities as this team still suffers from a general lack of OBP. However, the three young guys should all see at least 15/15 HR/SB, and the development of these players will make the difference between a solid third place finish or a 2nd place run at the Wild Card.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Remember line-up slots when drafting, as the difference in value for someone like Giambi could wind up at several dollars by the end of the year.

Also, thanks to those of you who e-mailed my Dad yesterday for his birthday; he certainly appreciated the good wishes.