Today's Fantasy Rx

As some of you hopefully noticed, we updated our Site Philosophy page yesterday. We added a section of influences and another with recommended links. If you haven't yet had a chance to read through our beliefs, we strongly suggest you peruse this page when you have a chance. You should gain a better understanding as to both our approach to baseball and fantasy baseball, as well as where and how we generated those beliefs.

I'd considered spending today's article discussing some of our upcoming site plans, changes, and additions for both the draft and regular season, but instead I'll take some of the overflow from Jess' column by discussing Spring Training injuries and the resulting fantasy and roster impacts.

The most-reported injury news is probably that Oakland Ace Tim Hudson sprained his ankle while working on a fielding drill. While reports on Wednesday had him missing 2-3 weeks, he's already walking without crutches or an ankle brace. The only real effect of this is that Mulder or Zito might get the Opening Day start, an honor the former deserves after his performance last season. Dropping Hudson in the rotation also might actually raise his value a dollar or two, as he'll be facing other teams' weaker starters and therefore should gain additional run support.

Since Hudson should be find by Opening Day, target him in your drafts as a potential sleeper, and raise his value a buck or two if he pitches lower in the rotation.

Speaking of Oakland starters, the Athletics announced last weekend that Erik Hiljus pitched the second half of last season with a fractured ankle. During this period, Hiljus "slumped" to a 2.4 K:BB, 7.7 K/9, and 1.3 HR/9. Considering his excellent minor league numbers over the past few years, as well as his excellent performance at AAA Sacramento in 2001 which included a 108:26 K:BB in 101.2 IP with 79 H and an unsurprising 18 HR, a healthy Hiljus appears primed for a breakout this year.

As Oakland has been discussing a Lidle deal, reported by Peter Gammons to include Jack Cust and Aaron Rowand, Billy Beane recognizes that Hiljus should emerge as at least a dependable fourth starter this season. You definitely should attempt to acquire this potentially excellent pitcher, especially as he'll remain undervalued in probably every draft.

Elder journeyman Dave Martinez announced that he'll miss the season due to chronic patellar tendinitis, a condition diagnosed near the end of last season. He's undergoing surgery on March 1st to try to alleviate the problem with his right knee to remove bone spurs behind the kneecap. This opens up an otherwise secure spot on the Braves' roster and gives them additional flexibility, as B.J. Surhoff will likely inherit Martinez's small role.

Breaking down the Braves' roster, they'll keep eleven pitchers, Javy Lopez and Paul Bako as their two catchers, and Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, and Gary Sheffield in the outfield. Vinny Castilla and Rafael Furcal have been assured starting spots, and Atlanta will likely keep Marcus Giles and Wes Helms, even if they don't start as expected on the right side of the infield.

B.J. Surhoff is finishing out the last year of his contract as a potential platoon-mate for Helms at first base, leaving four remaining roster spots. The Braves need a back-up shortstop for the somewhat injury-prone Furcal, necessitating a spot for Mark DeRosa. They'll certainly need a quality back-up outfielder with speed, and with George Lombard again out of options, Atlanta will keep him over NRI Ozzie Timmons.

With these three additions, the Braves have two spots open and no pressing needs since Surhoff, DeRosa, Helms, and Lombard can all play at least two positions each. On the 40-man roster, Steve Torrealba needs more time in the minors, as do Nick Green, Travis Wilson, Cory Aldridge, Ryan Langerhans, and even Wilson Betemit.

While Betemit could break camp with the team under the right circumstances, he's only had 183 AB above A-ball, and he exhibited poor plate discipline at AA. I'd send him back to AA for a couple of months, and then give him the rests of 2002 and possibly even some of 2003 at AAA in order to delay his arbitration clock, free agency clock, and therefore his salary increase as long as possible. This move also allows Vinny Castilla to play out his contract, and then either Betemit or Giles can slide over to third base, instead of a premature promotion forcing an undeserved Giles' benching or trade.

Atlanta has one open 40-man spot since Martinez will soon be moved to the 60-day DL. The last non-pitching 40-man spot not already covered is currently occupied by infielder Jesse Garcia, and he's in competition with NRIs C Eddie Perez, 1B Julio Franco, 1B Matt Franco, and IF Keith Lockhart for the two remaining slots. The Braves will likely keep Julio Franco after his quality 2001 September performance, and possibly even insert him into a three-headed 1B platoon with Surhoff and Helms.

If Garcia outplays the three remaining veterans, then he'll keep his roster spot as a back-up infielder. However with DeRosa already rostered, I don't believe the Braves need a second reserve middle infielder. Garcia lacks plate discipline and power, so he only brings speed and defense to the team, roughly similar attributes to DeRosa.

The Braves' problem in the playoffs largely can be attributed to simply awful decision regarding their bench players. Acquiring a real first baseman, perhaps by dealing Kevin Millwood for Ben Broussard and a mid-level pitching prospect like Cary Ammons or Scott Dunn, would solve two of their major problems by adding offense at 1B and keeping Surhoff and Helms in more productive reserve and pinch-hitting roles.

My guess is that they'll keep Lockhart due to a continued perception of his quality pinch-hitting ability despite a horrible 2001 where he only managed a .582 OPS in 78 at-bats, and only 9 of those occurred against left-handers. A better alternative might be keeping Matt Franco for this same role, but even though he's several years younger, he's an equally bad hitter and limited to 1B defensively whereas Lockhart can handle second and third. I can't believe that Atlanta will keep Eddie Perez as Maddux's personal catcher for yet another season. So in consideration of all these options, if they can't find a starting 1B or quality fourth outfielder, I really hope they just keep 12 pitchers to take pressure off of their aging veterans.

Lastly, after hearing about far too many cases of pitcher abuse at college and high school, we've become proponents of perhaps even somewhat extreme guidelines to protect young arms at every level. While only a very select number of teenage tossers will ever be considered for professional careers, no coach should ever impede their dreams for the glory of a high school or college team. We just don't believe that even events like the Little League World Series or College World Series warrant pitch counts reportedly approaching 200 in the occasional outing for past competitors in the latter event.

The recent news that 2001 Detroit First Round Draft Pick Kenny Baugh, selected 11th overall out of Rice, has been shut down for a few weeks doesn't surprise us in the slightest. John Sickels, in this year's Minor League Scouting Notebook, referred his readers to Boyd Nation's site, Pitcher Workloads in College Baseball. After visiting his site, we were impressed albeit disheartened by the results of his research, which builds upon the researched-developed pitching abuse formula first published by Baseball Prospectus in their 2001 book.

Given the quality of his work, I'm going to quote directly from Nation's site, and I certainly encourage everyone to read what he posted.

"It turns out that Randy Johnson wasn't the most abused pitcher in the nation this year; that title goes to Kenny Baugh so far. That's right, Baugh racked up more pitcher abuse points at age 22 or whatever than Johnson did at age 38. The truly frightening part about Baugh's season is that those are not his complete numbers; the Rice SID was missing information on around five of his late-season starts due to the shutdown in April of their Web hosting company. The single worst start of the year that I've found was Baugh's 171-pitch outing against Nebraska in the super-regional. Significantly, both Baugh and his Rice teammate Jon Skaggs had to be shut down early from the minor league season due to arm problems, although Baugh, who was drafted by the Tigers, had started off in high A ball and been jumped to AA, probably not the wisest course of action by the Tigers."

Don't even consider drafting Kenny Baugh in any minor league reserve draft short of perhaps 200 AL-only prospects. He was shut down with a tired arm last season and has already felt a stiff and pinched shoulder this spring. Given this workload, he's extremely likely to suffer a severe arm injury in the near future, so don't expect him to remain in the Tigers' rotation on a consistent basis until perhaps 2005 at the earliest. I expect he'll lose at least half of the next three seasons to the Disabled List, so any Tiger fans reading this should prepare for a few potentially very ugly seasons; Jeff Weaver also looks quite vulnerable to a major injury in the near future.

While others in his thirteen-pitcher list of abused arms were drafted last year, including top picks Aaron Heilman and Jason Arnold, the most relevant fantasy impact of this site is the unfortunately logical appearance of Mark Prior as the fifth most overworked pitcher in the nation. Nation found that Prior was more abused than any major league pitchers outside of Johnson, Colon, Livan Hernandez, and Schilling. Skipping the 2001 minor league season may be the only decision that saved him from major arm problems. Nation concludes his Prior comments with:

"Prior's high mark was 133, he also had starts of 129, 128, 125, and 120 twice. In his case, it appears that there was probably an attempt to manage his workload (I've actually spoken to his pitching coach and know that to be the case); it may just be that more knowledge is needed here."

I'll still rank Prior near the top of our minor league lists for fantasy reserve drafts next month, although please remember this information when you consider choosing him over someone with a disciplined, monitored minor league history, for example San Diego's Dennis Tankersley or even a lesser prospect like Oakland's Juan Pena.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Now that Spring Training is underway and actual games are only a few days away, keep an eye on playing time when evaluating rumors, quotes, and even actual performances. While Spring Training stats matter very little, usage patterns can mean a lot about how teams view certain players. Line-ups will always matter as teams prepare their players for in-season roles, and we've tracked Games Finished stats for the last few years to determine potential closers. Please keep a grounded perspective when evaluating all Spring Training information.