Today's Fantasy Rx

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We continue our Spring Magazine reviews with:

2002 Spring Training Baseball Yearbook

I had almost finished writing this when my computer decided to delete my review on me. I have the patience to rewrite this one, but I don't particularly feel like rushing through another one at the moment. So TSN' Baseball Preview and Athlon can wait until tomorrow with any other books we find in stores today.

8/10 points for Presentation.
They usually produce a quality publication and 2002 doesn't disappoint in any way. Full-color glossy throughout the entire book, and they hold the line at $6.99, less than the far inferior Major League Yearbook. While they do liberally employ photos, they don't waste a full page on anybody, preferring to simply spend a half page of each two-page team preview on a photo, an acceptable use of their resources.

I'm docking them Presentation, Content, and Editing points for a rather significant and very annoying error. In the 2002 Fantasy Guide, they state "see page 92" for the Roto Index, which lists how they calculate dollar values. Now, they don't actually list dollar values or projections for 2002, but they do have a Retro Dollar Guide providing an actual printed version of last year's final Actual Values.

Unfortunately, this Roto Index isn't on page 92. So I turned to the TOC, and they list it on page 96. I turn to page 96 and now I see the Dodgers' team preview. The Roto Index turns out to begin on page 108, and the effort required to find it costs them an otherwise perfection Presentation score.

4/10 points for Table of Contents and included content.
While the TOC is on a left-handed page 2, all the data is lined up nicely on the left side of the page, along with short blurbs for the major articles. The Roto Index listing is last on the list, but someone simply forgot to change the page number.

In terms of actual content, you must remember that this is not a fantasy preview in any way. The Retro Dollar values are nice, but they add little to most owners at this point in the year. Lacking any projected dollar values or statistics also drops them another few points.

They do include a several-page section with spring schedules, park directions, and information for each city on where to stay (Doubletree Suites in Phoenix) and where to eat (Don & Charlie's in Scottsdale, right outside of Phoenix).

4/10 points for describing the league for their main rankings.
Well, they do a fantastic job of providing every detail necessary for explaining the Retro Dollar values, and they certainly deserve some credit for the most comprehensive details I've seen in a fantasy book this spring. However, I can't give them significant credit without any projected dollar values or statistics.

12/50 points for specific player analysis, 5 points for each player as follows.
(As long as a magazine discusses part of each detail, we give them a full point.)

7/25 points for Position Players:

1. Jeremy Giambi, Outfielder, Oakland Athletics:
  1. Only now entering his peak years.
  2. Most of his averages have been trending upwards for the past few seasons.
  3. He's better at his age than his brother Jason.
  4. Injury questions: He's never had more than 2001's 371 AB in a season.
  5. Playing time question: The Athletics have several other quality 1B/LF/DH.

2/5 points for Giambi. Hits on #1 and #5, although there's no mention of him in the Oakland section.

2. Shawn Green, Outfielder, Los Angeles:
  1. He should stay above the 40/110 level regardless of a Sheffield trade.
  2. He's capable of a 45/35 season if given the opportunity.
  3. He just entered his peak power years.
  4. He almost never misses a game, so you can count on high counting number totals across the board.
  5. Los Angeles expects him to anchor their offense despite a career .353 OBP.

1/5 points for Green. They published after the Sheffield trade, so I'll give them credit for #1.

3. Todd Hundley, Catcher, Chicago Cubs:
  1. Expect 30+ HR if he can find 400+ AB.
  2. Don't expect him to find 400+ AB unless he starts off strong.
  3. He should reach at least 80 RBI hitting behind Sosa, McGriff, and Alou.
  4. Don't expect him to exceed a .260 BA.
  5. He's young enough to rebound into a typical catcher's late-career power spike.

0/5 points for Hundley. No specific mention of Hundley in the magazine.

4. Doug Mientkiewicz, First Baseman, Minnesota Twins:
  1. He's 27 and entering his third full season; expect a more impressive breakout than 2001.
  2. His RBIs will increase as Rivas and Guzman's OBPs increase.
  3. His runs will increase with probable improvements by Ortiz, Jones, and whomever earns the RF job.
  4. He'll be lucky to hit .300, but .290 is quite reasonable.
  5. With Tom Kelly gone, he's the unquestioned starter for the next couple of years.

2/5 points for Mientkiewicz. Good hits on #1 and #5 even if they didn't really discuss his offense.

5. Jose Ortiz, Second Baseman, Colorado Rockies:
  1. He's receiving his first uncontested full-time job going into Spring Training.
  2. His 2000 MLEs were outstanding, even for the Pacific Coast League.
  3. He's only turning 25 this year, so he's likely to post great 5x5 numbers in the future.
  4. Colorado wants to bat him 2nd, decreasing his RBI opportunities, but potentially increasing his runs scored ahead of Helton and Larry Walker.
  5. If he struggles, they might give Brent Butler a shot at the job.

2/5 points for Ortiz. I'll give them credit for hits on #1 and #3, although they missed the easy #4 that most other books received due to printing projected lineups.

5/25 points for Pitchers:

1. Paul Abbott, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners:
  1. He had 17 wins because he received the most run support in the majors in 2001.
  2. He's allowed over 20 HR in each of the last two seasons in under 180 IP both years.
  3. Since he's already 34, he's now on the downside of his career.
  4. His K:BB has been quite bad at a combined 218:167 over the last two years.
  5. Seattle has a cadre of young pitching soon to replace him.

0/5 points for Abbott. No specific mention of Abbott.

2. Matt Anderson, Closer, Detroit Tigers:
  1. Aside from one bad April outing, his ERA would have been well below 4.00.
  2. He pitched quite well as a full-time closer last year.
  3. There's little competition in the Tigers' bullpen.
  4. He doesn't appear to be an injury risk.
  5. The Tigers have a weak offense and weak starting pitching, decreasing his potential save opportunities.

2/5 points for Anderson. Hits on #1 and #2, although nobody seems to be mentioning #3, #4, or #5.

3. Curt Schilling, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks:
  1. He's unlikely to reach 20 wins again in 2002 because of a probable downturn in Arizona's offense.
  2. He led the league in HR, so his ERA could rise if his OOBP ever slips.
  3. He's 35, but appears to be aging nicely like his fellow ace and World Series MVP.
  4. While he's only broken 190 strikeouts three times in his career, he struck out over 290 batters in those other three years. Expect another season of close to 300.
  5. While he appears recovered from past injuries, he could hit the DL quickly, so monitor his pitch counts for overuse.

1/5 points for Schilling. Hit on #3, although they provide mostly historical background without any 2002 commentary.

4. Jason Schmidt, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants:
  1. He has $20+ potential when healthy.
  2. He appears to be both healthy and secure after signing a long-term deal with the Giants.
  3. He struck out almost a batter per inning last season.
  4. He's never finished the year with an ERA under 4.07, which he's reached twice.
  5. The Giants have a deep and talented bullpen, so he won't need to pitch deep into games.

1/5 points for Schmidt. They touch on #2, but fail to really discuss his skills or the bullpen.

5. Ugueth Urbina, Closer, Boston Red Sox:
  1. He appears fully recovered from his arm troubles.
  2. Posted a 2.25 ERA and a 32:3 K:BB after his trade to Boston.
  3. The Red Sox want Lowe to start, eliminating his primary competition.
  4. He'll be a free agent after this season, so the Red Sox are open to trading him under the right circumstances.
  5. He can dominate when healthy, and the Red Sox have a good team surrounding him.

1/5 points for Urbina. They're concerned about his elbow, so I'm only giving them credit for #5.

3/5 points for editing.
Aside from the TOC and page reference error, I don't see many problems here. This book is a relatively good example of quality publishing compared to most other spring guides.

5/10 points for the accompanying website.
Almost every article and feature appears to be on their website, springtrainingmagazine.com, so I'm now quite annoyed with them for making me spend the seven bucks to buy the book. There doesn't appear to be any additional new material on-line, but feel free to browse around their website for a few minutes instead of buying the book.

2/5 points for creativity and innovation.
Nobody else is publishing Retro Dollar Values in such detail, although there's little else of interest to most fantasy owners.

Overall ranking: 38/100 points.
I'm not sure what I can add to my other comments, other than this book posted a higher total score than three straight fantasy previews: Fantasy Sports, Lindy's, and Major League Baseball Yearbook. While they don't have the player reviews of these publications, I find this to be a much more useful expenditure of our funds, since I can always visualize going to Spring Training even if we can't afford it. The lesson that we'll likely take away from these regular baseball previews is that a quality publication with good information is more useful than any random fantasy guide. Trust your own judgement on players, and you can save a bunch of money otherwise wasted on these magazines.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you're going to Spring Training, pick up this guide, as it should be a handy reference of directions and games. If not, I don't see a particularly good reason to purchase this publication.