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by Tim Polko

Moving on with more Spring Baseball Magazine Reviews:

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We continue our Spring Magazine reviews with Fantasy Sports April 2002 and Lindy's Fantasy Baseball 2002:

Fantasy Sports April 2002

4/10 points for Presentation.
Fantasy Sports has recently introduced a few color glossy pages at the front of the magazine, but most of this publication is still newsprint. The included analysis is fairly accessible due to printed tags on the edge of the pages with player reviews or the their draft "cheat sheets". Unfortunately, they only limit their projections to occasional statistics at the end of the player reviews, and almost none of their dollar values have any attached stats. This book is better than in past years, and they do lose something by printing six issues each year, but they've kept the price at $4.99 because there's nothing overly slick or impressive about the printing.

4/10 points for Table of Contents and included content.
The TOC is fairly solid and even includes a couple of article descriptions, but they've buried it on page 4, ceding page 3 to an ad. Their content remains only suitable for the beginning fantasy player: "What is Fantasy Baseball?" and "How to Play Fantasy Baseball" articles, outdated charts of players by team and position. The player bios are only grouped by position, not in alphabetical order by hitter and pitcher as in TSN and Rotowire. One bright point: a strategy article from Ron Shandler, but all he discusses is the potential feasibility of punting saves. They also include a few shorts news updates in the back of "Industry News", which included tidbits we didn't know, including that Fanball.com filed for Chapter 11, so they won't publish their fantasy issue this year.

2/10 points for describing the league for their main rankings.
The only time they mention league format is in the draft day cheatsheet dollar values, where they comment that "dollar values are for AL-only Rotisserie Leagues, based on eight categories", along with a corresponding NL announcement. They even have 3 pages of rankings for points' based leagues without telling us the exact formula used. Actually, I was going to give them a 4 since they at least made an attempt, but what does "based on eight categories" mean. Either you're using 4x4 or 5x5, and if you don't know which for certain, you shouldn't be printing a fantasy publication.

20/50 points for specific player analysis, 5 points for each player as follows.
(As long as a magazine discusses part of each detail, we give them a full point.)

12/25 points for Position Players:

1. Jeremy Giambi, Outfielder, Oakland Athletics:
  1. Only now entering his peak years.
  2. Most of his averages have been trending upwards for the past few seasons.
  3. He's better at his age than his brother Jason.
  4. Injury questions: He's never had more than 2001's 371 AB in a season.
  5. Playing time question: The Athletics have several other quality 1B/LF/DH.

0/5 points for Giambi. They don't bother discussing him at any point, giving him an $8 value without any specific comment in the entire book. I can't wait for the article that ignores George Brett when discussing Hall of Fame third basemen because his brother Ken debuted in the majors first.

2. Shawn Green, Outfielder, Los Angeles:
  1. He should stay above the 40/110 level regardless of a Sheffield trade.
  2. He's capable of a 45/35 season if given the opportunity.
  3. He just entered his peak power years.
  4. He almost never misses a game, so you can count on high counting number totals across the board.
  5. Los Angeles expects him to anchor their offense despite a career .353 OBP.

3/5 points for Green. Hits on #1 and #5, and they suggest 46/25 for #2, which is closer than most other sources.

3. Todd Hundley, Catcher, Chicago Cubs:
  1. Expect 30+ HR if he can find 400+ AB.
  2. Don't expect him to find 400+ AB unless he starts off strong.
  3. He should reach at least 80 RBI hitting behind Sosa, McGriff, and Alou.
  4. Don't expect him to exceed a .260 BA.
  5. He's young enough to rebound into a typical catcher's late-career power spike.

2/5 points for Hundley. Hit #5 for "bounce back with stronger 2002", and suggesting that he "surprise with another 20-HR season" gives them #1.

4. Doug Mientkiewicz, First Baseman, Minnesota Twins:
  1. He's 27 and entering his third full season; expect a more impressive breakout than 2001.
  2. His RBIs will increase as Rivas and Guzman's OBPs increase.
  3. His runs will increase with probable improvements by Ortiz, Jones, and whomever earns the RF job.
  4. He'll be lucky to hit .300, but .290 is quite reasonable.
  5. With Tom Kelly gone, he's the unquestioned starter for the next couple of years.

4/5 points for Mientkiewicz. Some mention of #1, #2, #4, and #5, and I gave full credit since they also pointed out that he'll likely steal a couple more bases in 2002.

5. Jose Ortiz, Second Baseman, Colorado Rockies:
  1. He's receiving his first uncontested full-time job going into Spring Training.
  2. His 2000 MLEs were outstanding, even for the Pacific Coast League.
  3. He's only turning 25 this year, so he's likely to post great 5x5 numbers in the future.
  4. Colorado wants to bat him 2nd, decreasing his RBI opportunities, but potentially increasing his runs scored ahead of Helton and Larry Walker.
  5. If he struggles, they might give Brent Butler a shot at the job.

3/5 points for Ortiz. Good hits on #1, #2, and #4.

8/25 points for Pitchers:

1. Paul Abbott, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners:
  1. He had 17 wins because he received the most run support in the majors in 2001.
  2. He's allowed over 20 HR in each of the last two seasons in under 180 IP both years.
  3. Since he's already 34, he's now on the downside of his career.
  4. His K:BB has been quite bad at a combined 218:167 over the last two years.
  5. Seattle has a cadre of young pitching soon to replace him.

1/5 points for Abbott. Hit on run support, but they're predicting 15 wins, a 4.30 ERA, and $12, the same value projected for Washburn, Appier, Weaver, and Ritchie.

2. Matt Anderson, Closer, Detroit Tigers:
  1. Aside from one bad April outing, his ERA would have been well below 4.00.
  2. He pitched quite well as a full-time closer last year.
  3. There's little competition in the Tigers' bullpen.
  4. He doesn't appear to be an injury risk.
  5. The Tigers have a weak offense and weak starting pitching, decreasing his potential save opportunities.

2/5 points for Anderson. #1 and #2, although they harp about his road ERA and rising ERA as a closer instead of more significant measures of prediction.

3. Curt Schilling, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks:
  1. He's unlikely to reach 20 wins again in 2002 because of a probable downturn in Arizona's offense.
  2. He led the league in HR, so his ERA could rise if his OOBP ever slips.
  3. He's 35, but appears to be aging nicely like his fellow ace and World Series MVP.
  4. While he's only broken 190 strikeouts three times in his career, he struck out over 290 batters in those other three years. Expect another season of close to 300.
  5. While he appears recovered from past injuries, he could hit the DL quickly, so monitor his pitch counts for overuse.

2/5 points for Schilling. Only #2 and #3, they like him at up to $37 in 5x5. They also included this gem: "Opponents hit .245 against him, but just .237 with men in scoring position." I'm tempted to dock them a couple of points for sheer idiocy with regards to sample size and salient facts; the difference in the above averages is just over one lousy hit.

4. Jason Schmidt, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants:
  1. He has $20+ potential when healthy.
  2. He appears to be both healthy and secure after signing a long-term deal with the Giants.
  3. He struck out almost a batter per inning last season.
  4. He's never finished the year with an ERA under 4.07, which he's reached twice.
  5. The Giants have a deep and talented bullpen, so he won't need to pitch deep into games.

2/5 points for Schmidt. #2 and #3 are okay, although they somehow believe he'll post an ERA under 4.00. They're ignoring a lot of history with that prediction, even though they may be correct.

5. Ugueth Urbina, Closer, Boston Red Sox:
  1. He appears fully recovered from his arm troubles.
  2. Posted a 2.25 ERA and a 32:3 K:BB after his trade to Boston.
  3. The Red Sox want Lowe to start, eliminating his primary competition.
  4. He'll be a free agent after this season, so the Red Sox are open to trading him under the right circumstances.
  5. He can dominate when healthy, and the Red Sox have a good team surrounding him.

1/5 points for Urbina. The mention his post-All-Star stats, so I'll give credit for #2, but this review is really bad, including "Toss out a 9.26 ERA in May and a 4.76 mark in June and his 2001 numbers would have been much better." Yes, and if you "toss out" every earned run he allowed last season, his ERA would have been 0.00.

1/5 points for editing.
We'll call these highlights "editing" mistakes: Scott Hatteberg, Anaheim starting 1B; Luis Rivas, Minnesota backup SS while Jay Canizaro starts; Todd Zeile, Mets starting left fielder.

My personal favorite: "Marcus Thames, OF, Mets…at Norwich." I doubt the Yankees will be happy that they just lost a solid OF prospect to their cross-town rivals, though if the alternative is losing their entire AA team, maybe King George won't mind

2/10 points for the accompanying website.
They list fantasysportsmag.com, which forces you to go to collect.com first, and then after you kick back out to fantasysportsmag.com, they require an e-mail address before you can look at anything. The strategy articles are provided on-line, the dollar value cheat sheets are posted, and there's about two new "industry news" articles. Having the same information on-line is mildly nice, but the site adds practically nothing to the book.

1/5 points for creativity and innovation.
I like the "industry news", even if that is just a regular feature of the magazine. There's not a single important concept advanced by this publication, continuing a grand tradition of recycled content on recycled paper.

Overall ranking: 34/100 points.
Do not purchase this magazine if you've ever actually played a fantasy baseball game. The player reviews add practically nothing above statistical recitation. Including articles by Shandler and Rick Wilton is a good sign of progress, but the review writers don't appear to understand statistical analysis or projection theory.

Perhaps the most irritating line in the entire book was "The perfect closer can be nirvana for fantasy owners." Now its been a few years since my last course in Eastern Religions, but I seem to remember that a fantasy owner "achieves nirvana." Managing Editor Tom Kessenich should receive a fine for writing this, or at least he should if somebody had established a kangaroo court for fantasy publications. Consider this "2002 Fantasy Baseball Preview for Dummies", and move down the newsstand to:

Lindy's Fantasy Baseball 2002

Future slogan: "At least we're not 'Fantasy Sports'". 3/10 points for Presentation.
I have to give them three points just for using quality ink and paper. The first third or so of the magazine is color glossy and the second third is blue, black and white glossy, about the quality of a laser printer using good paper stock. The final third is blue, black, and white ink on regular non-glossy magazine pages, although they don't appear to be recycled, so not only do they get progressively harder to read and turn, they're not helping the environment.

Unfortunately, the bad far outweighs the good here. They have the most annoying advertisements of any of these books so far, including a Crown Royal on the back cover, Just For Men with Keith Hernandez on the inside front cover, and Consort: Hairspray for Men, featuring Mike Ditka inside. We've seen gray, balding, and combed-over fantasy players, but never somebody looking like Tim McCarver.

Other than the advertisements, the layout director should be banished from magazines for life. The first three inside pages are ads, along with six of the first eight. Then they open with a Sportsline-specific article that lasts eight pages. They have a useful section on common injuries, but leave it back on page 22. While they do have limited projections, they only print them by position, and bury them separately at each position.

The player profiles are again listed by position rank, not alphabetically, making specific players much harder to find. Dollar values are not listed next to the profiles. They also include three full-page color pictures of three catchers, three first basemen, and three second basemen instead of simply printing more of the forecasting page in color, violating my "no wasting pages on full-page color pictures just to increase the price."

Finally, returning to the ads again, on page 31 they stoop to the level of spam porn advertisements. I'm none too pleased when a magazine attempts to challenge my manhood, but unfortunately for Lindy's, they simply don't measure up to my standards.

3/10 points for Table of Contents and included content.
Since I forced myself to give them four points for glossy paper, I'm going to dock them a couple of points here for their advertising content.

Printing an 8-page feature on Sportsline head-to-head games is one of the dumbest publishing decisions of any fantasy season. With Sportsline moving to a pay format this year, no league should still be using their service instead of TQStats or even All-Star Stats. We've had several significant problems with Sportsline in the past, and we find it mind-boggling that their head-to-head game strategy somehow wound up as the first article.

The bright spot of the magazine is the following two articles. Stuart Shea presents an extended look at 41 injured players, detailing their injury and their recovery progress. He also includes charts of "Most Days on DL: 1997-2001" and "Most Times on DL:1997-2001", each divided into pitchers and position players. Unsurprisingly, Jeff D'Amico and Carlos Hernandez lead the first list, while Paul Shuey and Rondell White headline the second.

He also presents a paragraph summary of 10 common baseball injuries, detailing the problems and usual recovery time inherent for each. I strongly suggest browsing through this article if you have a few minutes at the bookstore.

Lindy's also somehow conned Baseball America's Josh Boyd into providing a top-25 prospect list for 2002, along with the top 6 to 8 prospects at most positions.

The TOC is at-least on the right page, but they don't specifically label the pages with projections or the "common injury" table.

They also make a big deal about "All told, we profiled more than 510 players." Apparently no one on staff looked at Rotonews/wire the last two years if they thought this would impress people.

1/10 points for describing the league for their main rankings.
Their draft checklist states "The rankings most closely apply to five-by-five fantasy formats", but that's all the information provided for dollar value context. Since they don't even say "these are 5x5 rankings", all I can give them is a point for mentioning "five-by-five".

25/50 points for specific player analysis, 5 points for each player as follows.
(As long as a magazine discusses part of each detail, we give them a full point.)

11/25 points for Position Players:

2/5 points for Giambi. He's listed with DHs, and they only cover #4 and #5. They list his ceiling as "20 homers and 80 RBIs if he gets 500 at-bats", along with an admonishment to draft the "correct 'J. Giambi'". On the bright side, at least they reviewed him.

3/5 points for Green. They hit enough of #1, #2, and #3, although like everyone else, they ignore his SB upside.

2/5 points for Hundley. Touched on #1 and #4 to earn credit, but their other catcher comments are more interesting. Does anyone else consider Lieberthal more of a "sure thing" than LoDuca?

2/5 points for Mientkiewicz. Covered enough of #4 and #5 for credit, although they don't appear to recognize that he's only now approaching his ceiling.

2/5 points for Ortiz. Touched on #1 and #3; much of their commentary is far too obvious to be useful to practically anyone, like "Coors is the ideal launching pad…This young slugger is cleared for takeoff."

14/25 points for Pitchers:

4/5 points for Abbott. A projected ERA of 4.95 and only 10 wins helps them hit everything but #5.

2/5 points for Anderson. Discussed his "bloated ERA" while also covering #2, but they still added "He's finally erased the doubts that had surrounded him since 1997, when the Tigers drafted him first overall." If you're going to waste fantasy space by commenting on his draft position, you should at least mention that a relief pitcher should never go first overall, or likely even in the first round.

1/5 points for Schilling. All they touched on was #3, and they fail to discuss his HR rate while still mentioning several other indicators.

3/5 points for Schmidt. Covered #1, #2, and #5, more or less.

4/5 points for Urbina. Everything except #4; I'm almost somewhat impressed by this review. Oh, well - even a blind squirrel…

3/5 points for editing. They somehow failed to check a few of the "rookies" for actual 2002 rookie status. Aaron Rowand accumulated more than 45 days with the White Sox before September, as did Jesus Colome with Tampa, and David Riske with Cleveland.

0/10 points for the accompanying website.
There's no baseball information on www.lindyssports.com right now, with the site instead focusing on football and basketball. Even the "Miss TFN" (The Football Network) picture in a Santa suit doesn't earn them a point. The word "baseball" only appears on the homepage in an article slamming the MLB playoff format.

1/5 points for creativity and innovation.
The injury article is a must-read for anybody without a sports medicine background or significant knowledge about sports' injuries, but it still only earns them one point.

Overall ranking: 37/100 points.
They squeak ahead of Fantasy Sports due to some decent reviews, one very good article, and glossy paper. However, they're also a dollar more expensive, and they're nowhere near the quality of the $6.99 TSN or Rotowire. Unless you really need to make a 20 minute phone call, spend the extra dollar for a real book.

Considering the relative lack of analysis combined with their disgusting advertisements, I'm going to condemn Lindy's by simply stating: Even though Fantasy Sports employs Rod Beaton, Lindy's is the true USA Today of Fantasy Baseball Previews.

Hopefully tomorrow will bring some good magazines for me to review, but after skimming a little of the others, I don't have much hope.

Today's Fantasy Rx: No real prescription after yesterday; I'll let that carry the weekend. I'll only mention that the Ice Capades invade Salt Lake City tonight in the form of the Original Ice Dancing. As casino showgirls are less ostentatious, we wish they'd just run the first event again and award a second pairs' gold medal. I mean a third pairs' gold medal.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.




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	February 17^th 2002			Your Daily Fantasy Rx