Today's Fantasy Rx.

If you want to take another look at our criteria, please refer to yesterday's article.

We've selected the following 10 players as this year's test cases: Jeremy Giambi, Todd Hundley, Doug Mientkiewicz, Jose Ortiz, Paul Abbott, Matt Anderson, Curt Schilling, Jason Schmidt, and Ugueth Urbina.

We'll include what we believe to be the most important details to cover when previewing each player. Each publication will receive one point for each detail that they discuss at some point in the magazine.

The Sporting News Fantasy Baseball Owners Manual

6/10 points for Presentation.
The good news is that TSN has expanded the glossy section at the front of the magazine, giving them an advantage over magazines that just can't be bothered.

The bad news is that they continue to print almost the entire publication on standard newspaper. They've even converted their weekly magazines to a glossier format, and they can't bother to upgrade a yearbook that people will constantly flip through? $6.99 is a little expensive based on just the presentation.

However, they only have one page with nothing but a full-page photo, and Barry Bonds certainly deserves that recognition. They probably have a few too many ads, including a gratuitously boring ad for their website, but the advertising isn't as blatant as in past years.

8/10 points for Table of Contents and included content.
The TOC is a little hard to find, placed on the inner half of page 2 and somewhat overwhelmed by a large Randy Johnson photo to the left. They do list every section along with descriptions, so its easier to follow than some books.

They've included drafting tips, extended sleeper discussions, analysis of several injured players, two prospect lists including over 100 players, a park effect discussion, mock draft, a Top 300 list, projected lineups and rotations, dollar values by position, dollar values by position in each league, two or more pages of discussion on each position, an alphabetical list of scouting reports on several hundred players, split into pitchers and hitters, and a list of top 3-year statistics by position at the end of the magazine.

They lose one point for failing to provide dollar values with the scouting reports, forcing you to go looking back to the position sections, and another for a two-page article/advertisement for their challenge games.

10/10 points for describing the league for their main rankings.
They clearly describe on page 5 "dollar values and rankings are set to standard 5x5 Rotisserie rules, which include 14 position players, nine pitchers, six reserves, and a $260 budget. Because most fantasy owners draft players from both leagues, we used a 25-team mixed league to produce dollar values."

Also including 4x4 values would have been nice, but they did a great job in actually giving us the required information. Although we're wondering exactly how they incorporate those six reserve players in their valuations.

32/50 points for specific player analysis, 5 points for each player as follows.
(As long as a magazine discusses part of each detail, we give them a full point.)

16/25 points for Position Players:

1. Jeremy Giambi, Outfielder, Oakland Athletics:
  1. Only now entering his peak years.
  2. Most of his averages have been trending upwards for the past few seasons.
  3. He's better at his age than his brother Jason.
  4. Injury questions: He's never had more than 2001's 371 AB in a season.
  5. Playing time question: The Athletics have several other quality 1B/LF/DH.

5/5 points for Giambi. They didn't quite cover all the specifics, but thanks to including him with "Climbing" players in the front, they at least touched on all these points.

2. Shawn Green, Outfielder, Los Angeles:
  1. He should stay above the 40/110 level regardless of a Sheffield trade.
  2. He's capable of a 45/35 season if given the opportunity.
  3. He just entered his peak power years.
  4. He almost never misses a game, so you can count on high counting number totals across the board.
  5. Los Angeles expects him to anchor their offense despite a career .353 OBP.

3/5 points for Green. They exactly hit on the 40/110 point in rating him the 17th best player in the majors, mentioned his consistent player time more than once, and listed him as in his prime. They ignored his low OBP for an elite OF and don't foresee a return to his previous SB levels as his numbers suggest.

3. Todd Hundley, Catcher, Chicago Cubs:
  1. Expect 30+ HR if he can find 400+ AB.
  2. Don't expect him to find 400+ AB unless he starts off strong.
  3. He should reach at least 80 RBI hitting behind Sosa, McGriff, and Alou.
  4. Don't expect him to exceed a .260 BA.
  5. He's young enough to rebound into a typical catcher's late-career power spike.

2/5 points for Hundley. They appear to hate Hundley, as they list him at $1 and list players like Barrett, Santiago, and Fletcher in the Top 300 ahead of him. At least they discuss his potential AB and low BA, even if they ignore his potential for a rebound.

4. Doug Mientkiewicz, First Baseman, Minnesota Twins:
  1. He's 27 and entering his third full season; expect a more impressive breakout than 2001.
  2. His RBIs will increase as Rivas and Guzman's OBPs increase.
  3. His runs will increase with probable improvements by David Ortiz, Jacque Jones, and whomever earns the RF job.
  4. He'll be lucky to hit .300, but .290 is quite reasonable.
  5. With Tom Kelly gone, he's the unquestioned starter for the next couple of years.

2/5 points for Mientkiewicz. Another player receiving no respect, they rate him below Shawn Wooten and Steve Finley, despite every indication that he can at least maintain or improve on a nearly $20 2001 value. They at least cover his probable falling BA and potential for more power, so I gave them credit for #2 and #4 even if they do think he's at his peak. They miss on #5 because they expect Moreau to be up in 2003, a timetable I consider somewhat advanced.

5. Jose Ortiz, Second Baseman, Colorado Rockies:
  1. He's receiving his first uncontested full-time job going into Spring Training.
  2. His 2000 MLEs were outstanding, even for the Pacific Coast League.
  3. He's only turning 25 this year, so he's likely to post great 5x5 numbers in the future.
  4. Colorado wants to bat him 2nd, decreasing his RBI opportunities, but potentially increasing his runs scored ahead of Helton and Larry Walker.
  5. If he struggles, they might give Brent Butler a shot at the job.

4/5 points for Ortiz. They cover #2, #3, and #4 fairly completely, although they did skip mentioning MLEs. They also hinted at his defensive troubles, so I gave them credit for #5.

16/25 points for Pitchers:

1. Paul Abbott, Starting Pitcher, Seattle Mariners:
  1. He had 17 wins because he received the most run support in the majors in 2001.
  2. He's allowed over 20 HR in each of the last two seasons in under 180 IP both years.
  3. Since he's already 34, he's now on the downside of his career.
  4. His K:BB has been quite bad at a combined 218:167 over the last two years.
  5. Seattle has a cadre of young pitching soon to replace him.

2/5 points for Abbott. They recognize he has potential to slip but don't really discuss why he's a bad gamble. They discuss his health concerns(#3) and control problems(#4), yet somehow ignore his run support, likely rising ERA due to excessive HRs, and all the competition rapidly gaining on him.

2. Matt Anderson, Closer, Detroit Tigers:
  1. Aside from one bad April outing, his ERA would have been well below 4.00.
  2. He pitched quite well as a full-time closer last year.
  3. There's little competition in the Tigers' bullpen.
  4. He doesn't appear to be an injury risk.
  5. The Tigers have a weak offense and weak starting pitching, decreasing his potential save opportunities.

4/5 points for Anderson. They nailed #1 and #2, and covered enough of #3 and #4 to earn credit.

3. Curt Schilling, Starting Pitcher, Arizona Diamondbacks:
  1. He's unlikely to reach 20 wins again in 2002 because of a probable downturn in Arizona's offense.
  2. He led the league in HR, so his ERA could rise if his OOBP ever slips.
  3. He's 35, but appears to be aging nicely like his fellow ace and World Series MVP.
  4. While he's only broken 190 strikeouts three times in his career, he struck out over 290 batters in those other three years. Expect another season of close to 300.
  5. While he appears recovered from past injuries, he could hit the DL quickly, so monitor his pitch counts for overuse.

4/5 points for Schilling. They appear somewhat focused on his injuries, but ranked him 13th in the majors. However, they did touch on every element except for #1.

4. Jason Schmidt, Starting Pitcher, San Francisco Giants:
  1. He has $20+ potential when healthy.
  2. He appears to be both healthy and secure after signing a long-term deal with the Giants.
  3. He struck out almost a batter per inning last season.
  4. He's never finished the year with an ERA under 4.07, which he's reached twice.
  5. The Giants have a deep and talented bullpen, so he won't need to pitch long into games.

3/5 points for Schmidt. They covered elements of #2, #3, and #4, but don't seem to think much of his upside or recognize that his injury risk is decreased because of Frisco's bullpen depth.

5. Ugueth Urbina, Closer, Boston Red Sox:
  1. He appears fully recovered from his arm troubles.
  2. Posted a 2.25 ERA and a 32:3 K:BB after his trade to Boston.
  3. The Red Sox want Lowe to start, eliminating his primary competition.
  4. He'll be a free agent after this season, so the Red Sox are open to trading him under the right circumstances.
  5. He can dominate when healthy, and the Red Sox have a good team surrounding him.

3/5 points for Urbina. They somehow only ranked him the 178th best player in the majors, instead preferring hit-and-miss types like Koch and Mesa. However, they did hit on #1, #2, and #5 while leaving him in the second tier.

4/5 points for editing. Extremely few typos but not particularly well written, with far too many attempted witty puns and metaphors that detracted from serious analysis.

8/10 points for the accompanying website. TSN has done an absolutely fantastic job of bringing their website into competition with even roto stalwarts like Rotoworld by adding frequent players updates and expanding their fantasy staff. They have the advantage of needing a comprehensive baseball website because of their weekly magazine, but they've still done excellent work in emerging from a run-of-the-mill baseball media website into a useful addition to the fantasy rounds. My only real complaint is that their articles appear on their website, Yahoo, and in the magazine, and the actual quality of the analysis is a bit weak on players from smaller markets.

2/5 points for creativity and innovation. A full page discussion on park factors is more than in many places, and they do a decent job of discussing K:BB for pitchers and BB:K for hitters. Unfortunately, there's nothing too new or impressive in the book, so its just another resource, albeit a well-researched one.

Overall ranking: 70/100 points. TSN continues to print a perfectly respectable fantasy guide although there's nothing in here that you need to own. We see some owners every season only using this magazine as their primary draft resource, so its also a good place from which to take an average player's opinion on dollar values.

I'll try to get through at least two magazines tomorrow, depending on time.

Happy Valentine's (Thurs)Day.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Check out TSN's fantasy site. You may want to bookmark their player update page in addition to Rotoworld, etc.