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February
11th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Son of Bored of Review
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx.


We move into a non-standard strikeout throw-around today as we shift our focus from catchers to midfielders. For those of you concerned about where we place players who are eligible at multiple positions, we follow the standard defensive diagram, modified for fantasy purposes (each position grows progressively easier we shift to the right):

C - SS - 2B - 3B - 1B - OF(CF, RF, LF) - SP - RP

Catchers and midfielders remain the most important positions for which you should draft quality talent, followed by third basemen, and then first basemen before outfielders because of their relative scarcity in drafts. Good relievers who will earn a buck or two are far easier to find during the season than starters with Positive Draft Value, and because of the sheer number of available pitchers over the course of the season, scarcity only sneaks into the pitching categories via saves.

Regarding player placement on your roster, if you draft Jason Kendall for an outfield slot, I doubt you'll finish even in the first division. Paul LoDuca should not be in your outfield, nor should Albert Pujols, Dmitri Young, Mark McLemore, or even Jose Macias. If a player qualifies anywhere in the infield, you should slot them in your infield due to the number of outfielders normally available at the end of the draft.

Any exploration of the raw data supports these suppositions. Twenty-three NL shortstops and 26 AL shortstops posted PDV. However, only 11 National Leaguers posted double-digit PDV, along with only eight American Leaguers. Four of these nineteen also qualified at other positions, but in optimizing your 2002 teams, McLemore, Jose Valentin, Placido Polanco, and Desi Relaford should be placed at no lower a defensive roster spot than MIF on most any team.

Another nineteen NL shortstops and twelve AL shortstops appeared in the majors without earning PDV. Only seven of the National Leaguers and three of the American Leaguers even contributed Positive Total Category Dollars, meaning that 21 shortstops would have only hurt your team by appearing on your 2001 roster.

Now, you may be thinking that since 49 major league shortstops helped your team, and another 10 didn't hurt it, there are obviously plenty of SS to go around, and there's no reason not to use McLemore in your outfield.

Whenever you find yourself drifting towards that line of reasoning, remember that the season is 162 games long with very fluid rosters. More importantly, plenty of PDV earners like Nomar Garciaparra, Mike Bordick, Juan Uribe, and Barry Larkin only played in about a third of those games at best due to injuries and call-ups. Most leagues will run through a half-dozen replacement shortstops or more due to injuries, call-ups, reserve rosters, and other fantasy turnover.

When constructing your team, always seek to maximize your value at weaker positions.

Do not change your actual dollar values in that attempt, as a home run from a shortstop has no greater value than a home run from an outfielder (aside from a likely miniscule number of leagues with different scoring rules for different positions).

Moving across the bag to second basemen, 24 National Leaguers posted PDV, along with 26 American Leaguers. Nine of the National Leaguers managed double-digit PDV, while seven American Leaguers managed a similar feat.

While five of the nineteen double-digit shortstops changed teams, only two of the sixteen double-digit second basemen switched organizations. Roberto Alomar's trade to the NL certainly shifts the balance of AL middle infield power even further towards SS, but youngsters like Jerry Hairston, Brent Abernathy, and Mike Young should rise a few dollars in 2002. We should also see some improvement in Damion Easley, Jose Offerman, and even Carlos Febles if he can stay healthy.

Practically every American League team has a good chance to have at least one second basemen reach double-digit PDV. Every National League team except perhaps Arizona can likely make a similar claim. Contrast that to shortstop, where Tampa Bay, Detroit, Kansas City, and Seattle could all have problems in 2002, along with Florida, New York, Pittsburgh, and Los Angeles in the National League.

Not all second basemen are really this wonderful. Nineteen National Leaguers and 13 American Leaguers failed to post 2001 PDV. Six in the NL and four in the AL managed to not hurt your team as injury replacements, but that still leaves twenty-two second basemen to pollute your roster with low quantitative numbers and bad batting averages. Although most of them won't see as many at-bats as a defensive specialist shortstop like Alex Cora, low BAs from any position can still sink an otherwise healthy Yoo-Hoo contender in the way that weak OBPs can hurt playoff-bound teams in the post-season.

Despite the rather sudden proliferation of quality shortstops over the last few seasons with ARod, Jeter, Nomar, Tejada, and Aurilia replacing Larkin as consistent top earners, a top shortstop remains more important than a good second basemen. The three worst National League batters in 2001 were shortstops Alex Cora, Donaldo Mendez, and Jack Wilson. Enrique Wilson, Juan Castro, and Chris Gomez also posted $-5 PDV or worse during their NL time, and Craig Grebeck joined the corresponding AL group. Mark Bellhorn and Pat Meares were the only second basemen who managed as much damage to roto rosters.

I was hoping to cover all remaining infielders today, but I ran a bit long up the middle and want to devote more time to the corner guys. The basic rule that we'll continue to follow in our drafts is to acquire the first player at or below value to fill the weaker offensive positions. I'll continue to elaborate on the rationale for this strategy tomorrow with discussion of how, even when C, SS, and 2B qualifiers are removed from consideration, plenty of corner guys remain able to fill out your roster. We'll leave the midfield tomorrow as we examine the 2001 reviews with respect to the value and scarcity extant in corner infielders.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Senate hearings on MLB's anti-trust exemption on Wednesday. We'll provide more information on watching the broadcast here in the next two days.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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