Today's Fantasy Rx.

American League Relief Pitchers with less than $-5 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

158.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bryce Florie		0	0	11.42	2.19		7	7	12	11	8.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-2
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2

Florie had command problems even before a line drive struck him in the head. His comeback attempt certainly showed that he still possessed the desire to pitch, but he was neither effective at AAA or in the majors. He may return to some value as a long reliever in another year or two, although until that time arrives, he remains quite undraftable.

159.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Doug Henry		2	0	6.07	1.59		57	45	75	51	75.2
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-2		Res
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	-5		0		-8		0

Kansas City gave Henry a two-year contract after three straight years of a deteriorating K:BB ratio. With his K/9 also in freefall, no one should have been surprised by his fall to negative value for the first time in at least a few years. With the combination of his age and weak skills, he could hurt your team even more next season, so don't draft him.

160.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brandon Villafuerte		0	0	14.29	2.82		4	4	12	9	5.2
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-7		-1		-10		-2

Villafuerte made tremendous gains in his second full season in AAA, improving his MLE statistics from 68:46 K:BB in 87 IP with 132 hits to 57:25 K:BB in 63 IP with 75 hits. I'm more impressed that he managed to reach this increased skill level while moving from AAA Toledo to AAA Oklahoma. He certainly deserves a chance in a major league bullpen, although I'd wait until he established himself over a couple of months before using him as an injury replacement.

161.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dan Wheeler		1	0	8.66	1.98		12	5	30	17	17.2
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2

Wheeler continues to show only the slightest promise by pitching with good command, as almost every other indicator depicts major problems in his abilities. He doesn't strike out many batters due to allowing way too many base hits and home runs. This trend shows little sign of abating any time soon, and even with a move to the usually superior coaching of Atlanta, Wheeler will likely plateau as a AAAA starter, undraftable in even the deepest of leagues.

162.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bill Pulsipher		0	0	6.00	1.90		20	21	36	20	30.0
BOS / CHW		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2

Dallas Green helped destroy Pulsipher's arm while he was slagging the Mets' heralded trio of Paul Wilson, Pulse, and Izzy. Even after seemingly recovering from serious arm surgery, Pulse has been unable to reach even a meager 1.5 K:BB ratio. He appears to have some capability to succeed against left-handed batters, but he's quite unlikely to ever regain any real roto value. Pulsipher is probably stuck spending much of the next few years as a AAAA lefty specialist, and he'll be lucky to spend more than a month or two each year in the majors..

163.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Beirne		0	0	12.86	2.71		5	6	13	10	7.0
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-7		-1		-11		-2

Beirne demonstrated definite potential as a reliever in 2000 despite a slightly elevated homer rate. He lost many of those gains in 2001 while he lost seemingly all of his pitching effectiveness at the major league level. He pitched decently in the minors, compiling a fantastic 17:3 K:BB ratio in 28.2 IP at AAA Syracuse, but Beirne appears far too inconsistent to warrant another long look. He'll need to prove himself at both AAA and the majors again before I'll consider him for my team.

164.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Alan Mills		1	0	9.64	2.21		9	11	20	15	14.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	-7		-1		-11		-2

In over a decade of major league work, Mills has never managed twice as many strikeouts as batters walked. He's been relatively hard to hit in the past, but has allowed several more hits than innings' pitched over the last two seasons. There's little chance of Mills ever posted a sub-5.00 ERA in any significant playing time, so you should certainly avoid him in 2002.

165.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Sun-Woo Kim		0	0	5.83	1.80		27	21	54	27	41.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-10		-3
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-6		-1		-10		-2

Kim compensated for his major league difficulties with slight improvement in most of his 2001 MLE skill ratios. His K:BB improved by .2 to 2.4 and his K/9 also increased by .2 to 6.6. He still allows an unacceptably high number of hits and home runs, although he has another year or two to develop into a quality pitcher. Boston probably should stick him in relief at AAA, although if he could ever keep his hit and homer ratios low, he'd probably be a decent #3 or #4 starter. Until he shows big league talent in some specific role, you'll need to avoid him for your team.

166.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
C.J. Nitkowski		0	0	5.56	1.81		38	31	51	28	45.1
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-2		-10		-3
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-6		-1		-9		-1

Nitkowski is another of those veteran relievers who has never completed a season wherein he's struck out twice as many batters as he's walked. Comerica helped him by keeping a few homers in play, but all the extra fair ground also allowed more than a few hits to drop. The move to New York didn't help his numbers, so you'll have to wait and see how he handles his first extended exposure to the other league before potentially considering him as an injury replacement.

167.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Lance Painter		0	0	7.85	2.07		14	11	27	16	18.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-2		-10		-3
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-7		-1		-11		-2

Painter seemingly lost all ability to successfully pitch in 2001, although much of his difficulty can be blamed upon injury troubles. He pitched quite solidly for the previous two seasons, so he should see a recovery now that he's healed. Unfortunately, he's also developed a reverse platoon split over the last two seasons, and he won't find much positive roto value unless he can keep his OBA against lefties under .300. He still might warrant usage as an injury replacement, but wait at least until June to make sure that his skills have returned to 2000 level before picking him up.

168.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Justin Duchscherer		1	0	12.27	1.91		11	4	24	20	14.2
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-10		-3
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-7		-2		-11		-2

Ignore his brief and unmemorable stay in the majors in 2001, Duchscherer compiled MLEs that included a +135:42 K:BB in 168 IP with 158 H and 19 HR between AA Trenton, AA Tulsa, and AAA Oklahoma. He likely needs a half season at AAA to prove that this sudden dramatic improvement, especially in his strikeout rate, is no fluke. He'd make an interesting $1 gamble if Texas decides to keep him as a long reliever, but with all the pitching depth accumulated by the Rangers this off-season, I tend to expect that Duchscherer's more likely to wind up in the majors again with another franchise. I don't think he has great potential in 2002, although he certainly could approach double-digit value within the next two or three seasons.

169.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Rose		0	0	8.85	2.11		11	12	31	20	20.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-8		-2		-12		-3

Rose continues to demonstrate few skills that indicate he will remain a major league pitcher. He seems to lose all command upon every promotion while simultaneously allowing a severely increased number of hits and home runs. He'll likely need a full year in AAA sometime soon to regain his confidence against advanced hitters, and possibly then he might be able to handle another advancement to the majors. Given his current troubles above AAA, you need to avoid him in 2002 unless he suddenly displays a level of pitching competence above any he's previously exhibited.

170.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ken Vining		0	0	17.55	3.30		3	7	15	13	6.2
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-8		-2		-12		-3

Despite solid 2001 MLEs from AAA Charlotte that included a 41:21 K:BB ratio in 46 IP with 44 H and only 3 HR, the White Sox only gave Vining this brief look last season. He certainly appears to be a potentially capable addition to their bullpen, so perhaps they'll give him a longer look this season. With the White Sox seemingly shuffling lefty relievers at random, wait until someone appears to establish themselves before risking even an injury replacement pickup on any of them.

171.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Willie Blair		1	0	10.50	2.04		15	11	38	28	24.0
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-8		-4		-13		-5
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-8		-3		-13		-4

Blair seems unable to combine even two consecutive good seasons, and instead posts values like these at least every other year. He's demonstrated poor command as both a starter and reliever, and he also consistently allows too many batters to reach base. Considering Blair's age and his excellence in AAA, he's definitely slipped into the realm of the AAAA pitcher. I don't expect that he'll find many more opportunities to spend most of any season in the majors.

172.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mark Petkovsek		1	0	6.69	1.71		42	28	103	57	76.2
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-4		-13		-6		Res
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-8		-2		-12		-3		Res

Texas signed Petkovsek last winter to help in relief apparently without noticing that he'd only managed one season in relief while even striking out two batters for every walk. Now with all of these off-season's pitching pickups, he appears to be the most useless member of the staff and a probable candidate for either a DFA or outright release in the near future. The Rangers need make room for one of the several decent starting prospects unable to fit in the rotation, and Petkovsek's roster spot looks quite inviting considering his lack of most any pitching ability. His somewhat advanced age also damages his case as he has little upside, so you certainly shouldn't even consider acquiring him at any point.

173.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Heath Murray		1	0	6.54	1.93		42	40	82	46	63.1
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-5		-15		-7
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-9		-3		-13		-4

After three straight years of sub-par major league performances, Murray will likely spend the next few winters as a minor league free agent. No team should waste a 40-man roster spot on any pitcher both this historically bad and inconsistent. Even if he's occasionally seen some success against lefties, there's no reason for Murray to spend 2002 on either a big league or any fantasy team's roster.

American League pitching prospects will begin tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: When looking for middle relievers to add to your team, especially when you only plan on using them as roster filler until your regulars are healthy, pay more attention to their strikeout rate than even their K:BB ratio. Relievers that can dominate opponents will find more opportunities and have a higher likelihood of success than almost all soft-tossers, although you should also avoid any pitcher who isn't relatively close to at least a 2 K:BB.