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January
29th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Pitcher Month: AL Relievers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx.


Having started Pitcher Month several days late, I have found it unfortunate but necessary to extend the month several days into February. We will finish sometime next week with American League pitching prospects. Taking this extra time should allow me to provide more detailed and hopefully interesting commentary on players usually overlooked by the mainstream media. Several potential fantasy gems remain undiscussed, so hopefully you'll consider some of these relievers after reading my reviews.


American League Relief Pitchers with $0 and $-1 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

67. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
B.J. Ryan 2 2 4.25 1.45 54 30 47 25 53.0
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: 0 3 -1 4
2001 Age: 255x5: 0 3 0 5 Res

Ryan began fulfilling the promise that Baltimore expected when they acquired him as the primary bounty in the Jose Guzman trade in 1999. His second half ratios included a 2.9 K:BB and 9.8 K/9, numbers even more promising than his MLEs from 1998 and 1999. He has the potential be a dominant reliever instead of just another lefty specialist, although he's unlikely to see many save opportunities with the more established Groom in front of him. Does anyone know what happened to the Bear?


68. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Hector Carrasco 4 1 4.64 1.45 70 30 77 38 73.2
MIN Twins DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 4
2001 Age: 315x5: 1 4 0 5

Carrasco will never reach the potential that some foresaw for him when he first reached the majors, but he's turned into a very acceptable option for both major league and fantasy teams. Both his K:BB and K/9 were quite impressive last season, and he appears to be developing some maturity as a reliever. He would never be my first choice to fill a position, although you could do far worse when replacing an injured pitcher.


69. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Ryan Drese 1 0 3.44 1.28 24 15 32 14 36.2
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 255x5: -1 2 -3 3

Drese relieved in five of his nine appearances so gets left with relievers instead of his appropriate spot as a starter. He's always shown solid K:BB ratios of two to three plus aside from this brief major league trial, and he appears quite capable to step into the Indians' rotation soon. His MLEs were superior to all but a few starters in the entire Cleveland system, and they likely could not make a better selection for a fifth starter. If given the opportunity, he'll also add to most roto teams, and you'll likely be quite happy with his performance if you can grab him for a buck or two.


70. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Brian Boehringer 0 1 3.12 1.36 33 12 35 12 34.2
NY Yankees DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 315x5: -1 2 -2 4 Res

While Boehringer has had some success as a starter, both his injury history and skill ratios suggest that he'll only continue to help teams in the bullpen. Having recently signed with Pittsburgh, they should probably use him in long relief and potentially even as a spot starter for no more than a couple games this season. He's not someone who likely has great potential to close, but if used properly, he should earn a few bucks as a very decent set-up man. I likely won't consider him as anything more than an injury replacement even if he does break camp with the Bucs.


71. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Steve Reed 1 0 3.62 1.17 21 10 22 11 27.1
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 355x5: -2 2 -3 3

Reed likely offers more immediate potential than someone like Boehringer since the Padres will need him at least until Tom Davey recovers from arm surgery. He's been quite useful in roto all the way back to his days as the only decent Colorado reliever. Nothing in his skills overly excites me, and he's also limited to the somewhat rare righty specialist role, but Reed will likely never hurt you during the season. He's normally quite consistent during the season and only has problems towards the end of the year when opposing managers have more available pinch-hitters.


72. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
John Rocker 3 4 5.45 1.67 43 25 33 21 34.2
CLE Indians DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 265x5: -1 3 -2 4

I'm not quite sure what to comment as I don't believe I've had the pleasure of rehashing his misdeeds in print before now. Rocker certainly erred in sharing his views with a reporter, and he certainly irritated us when he got himself traded the week after we picked him up for our Challenge team last year. Of course, we then dropped a $60 FAAB bid on him for a team with only one or two saves, and he responded to our needs with exactly four more saves. Was that the proper bid? Yes, considering the circumstances at the time and the fact that we only bid a buck or two more than the second place finisher. I don't expect he'll find himself closing for the Rangers over the superior Jeff Zimmerman, although Rocker certainly could become an integral part of a second great Texas bullpen.


73. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Scott Eyre 1 2 3.45 1.40 16 7 15 6 15.2
TOR Blue Jays DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 295x5: -2 2 -3 3

Eyre certainly has some potential as a reliever other than a somewhat unsightly .876 OOPS over his career. He limited lefties to only five hits over 26 at-bats last season, so perhaps he'll find success if kept in a very limited role. His combined MLEs for 2001 indicate that he has more potential than many might expect as he compiled a 2.6 K:BB and 8.5 K/9. With Plesac and Borbon likely to depart Toronto within the next year or two due to their relatively high salaries, Eyre might further emerge as an inexpensive and somewhat reliable bullpen option.


74. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Luis Vizcaino 2 1 4.66 1.36 31 12 38 19 36.2
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 245x5: -1 2 -3 3

Vizcaino appeared poised to compete for the Athletics' closer job in 2002 right up until the trade for Koch. His combined MLEs were closer-caliber: 3.8 K:BB and 9.1 K/9. His major league numbers demonstrate his potential, but he'll have to fight for a job in this year's bullpen. Mecir and Tam are both signed for the next two seasons and Koch has the closer's role secured, leaving Vizcaino to compete with the three Mikes (Magnante, Holtz, and Venafro), the two Chads (Bradford and Harville), and even potentially Bert Snow for the remaining spots. Vizcaino certainly has the most long-term potential in this group, but don't go bidding more than a buck or two on any of these guys in 2002.


75. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
John Bale 1 0 3.04 1.31 21 17 18 9 26.2
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 275x5: -2 2 -3 3

Bale held lefties to a .395 OPS last season while also demonstrating decent potential as a middle reliever. His last three years appear somewhat inconsistent with each other, but its clear from his MLEs that Bale has the potential to put up numbers rivaling the second half of B.J. Ryan. Baltimore could have a powerful lefty presence in the bullpen with these two pitchers and Groom, and considering the youth and inexpensive salaries of the former two, except Groom to be dealt relatively soon. I wouldn't want to draft Bale in any but the deepest of leagues, but like Ryan, I see no reason not to use him if needed as an injury replacement.


76. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Alan Embree 1 0 5.03 1.12 34 7 31 19 34.0
CH White Sox DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -1 2 -2 2
2001 Age: 315x5: -2 2 -3 3

Embree registered the worst set of roto numbers in the National League in only a few weeks of pitching when he seemed unable to give up any hits besides home runs. His 2001 gopheritis streak appears completely out-of-character with the rest of his career. A return to a pitcher-friendly park like San Diego's will serve to aid his recovery from a disastrous season, and barring a continued inexplicable run of bad luck, expect him to return to his former status as a quality middle reliever who can usually provide a quick salve to ailing roto bullpens.


77. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
John Frascatore 1 0 2.20 1.22 9 4 16 4 16.1
TOR Blue Jays DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 2
2001 Age: 325x5: -2 2 -4 2

While pronouncing his name usually makes me want Italian food ("Waiter, please bring me another plate of this wonderful Chicken Frascatore"), he remains an acceptable middle reliever more suited to AAA than major league hitting. He's quite a soft-tosser and only in his brief 2001 appearance did he manage to strike out twice as many batters as he walked. The Mets will certainly use him at some point this season, although I wouldn't expect him to ever reach more than a dollar or two in value.


78. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Willie Banks 0 0 0.84 0.84 10 4 5 1 10.2
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 2
2001 Age: 325x5: -2 1 -4 2

Banks re-emerged after two years out of the majors to give Boston a marginally effective pitcher down the stretch. CDM Sports' obnoxiously horrific PRM system ranks him as the 51st best pitcher in the majors in 2001. Despite mathematical errors by their statisticians that any of my mother's pre-schoolers could likely point out, people apparently place some weight in their rankings. Banks is far too inconsistent to be counted on in 2002, so he's best used to illustrate that you should always compile your own player values and rankings, and if you don't have that time, make sure that the values and rankings that you use are mathematically sound. Whoever devised the PRM formula for CDM likely doesn't know a hypotenuse from a derivative, not that you'd even need that much math to adequately rank players.


79. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Josh Fogg 0 0 2.03 0.98 17 3 10 3 13.1
CH White Sox DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 1 -3 -2
2001 Age: 245x5: -2 2 -4 2

If the sound technicians in PNC Park have any sense of humor, they will introduce this particular pitcher with a foghorn every last time he trots out to the mound. I agree that the joke might get old after a short while, but considering the normal Pittsburgh pitching turnover between trades, demotions, and injuries, I wouldn't expect more than a dozen or so appearances from him. If he manages to hang around, he could easily establish himself as one of the best pitchers on the team. He has potential to emerge as perhaps even a #2 starter in the next few years but also could likely develop into a great closer. Your dollar is likely quite safe here, and I might even consider a few bucks if I were convinced that McClendon would use him properly.


80. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
John Wasdin 1 0 4.17 1.41 47 16 54 23 49.2
BAL Orioles DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 1 -3 2
2001 Age: 285x5: -1 2 -3 3

Baltimore traded for Wasdin and then lacked the sense to trust him as a closer, ignoring his incredibly good numbers including a 47:16 K:BB ratio in 49.2 IP. Philadelphia then wisely dealt Chris Brock for him and then decided to non-tender him, instead keeping the overpriced and potentially ineffective Ricky Bottalico. Wasdin could be a very good reliever and even potentially a top set-up man if given the chance. Feel free to FAAB him whenever he winds up back in the majors. He likely won't hurt you, and an intelligent manager might even find a few saves for you.


American League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The Challenge breakdown is fairly simple: if you have limited financial resources, play Budget Baseball. If you have some available cash and want to play a points-based game, play Fantasy Baseball. If you have too much time on your hands and can stand twice-weekly transactions, play the Internet Challenge. Finally, if you want a shot at one of the most coveted prizes in roto, play the Diamond Challenge. You'll likely need to spend in the neighborhood of $500 on transactions to compete for the top prizes in the last one, and each of the former is progressively cheaper up to Budget Baseball, which only requires an entry fee and provides you with free transactions. We'll be fielding at least one team in each Challenge to provide you with strategies on a weekly basis.

For a small preview, one of the most important strategies in Challenge is to maximize homefield advantage whenever possible. Both hitters and pitchers statistically perform better at home, and rotating your roster to increase the number of home starts for pitchers and homestands for hitters will give you an important advantage throughout the year.

You can apply the same logic to regular roto. When needing an injury replacement and considering two relatively similar pitchers, use homefield as a tiebreaker. If the two best relievers available are Scott Eyre and John Bale, and Toronto is at the Skydome while Baltimore is on a west coast trip, assuming their skill ratios are relatively similar, choose Eyre and the homefield advantage. Always consider the upcoming schedule of whatever short-term injury replacement you intend to acquire.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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