Today's Fantasy Rx.

American League Relief Pitchers with $9 to $4 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Al Levine		8	2	2.38	1.31		40	28	71	20	75.2
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	8		9		12		12
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	7		8		10		11

Levine had a surprisingly adequate first half that included a 2.8 K:BB ratio, 6.1 K/9, and .7 HR/9 complicated by an extremely lucky second half wherein he managed an even better ERA of 2.38 while losing half his strikeout rate and more than doubling his walk rate. The expected downturn left his yearly numbers at a level similar to the last few seasons. He remains an acceptable part of the Anaheim pen, but you should avoid him unless you need mid-season help and his in-season statistics look like 2001's first half numbers.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Nelson		4	4	2.76	1.13		88	44	30	20	65.1
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		8		11		12		4
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	8		9		12		13		2

Nelson posted his best K:BB numbers in years on the strength of a strike out ratio that rose all the way to 12.2. He's unlikely to see a repeat of these statistics in 2002, so you shouldn't go bidding more than a few bucks on him. If Sasaki breaks down, Rhodes and Hasegawa will be in the saves' mix with Nelson, so he's not even an overly safe speculative pick this year.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rod Beck		6	6	3.90	1.30		63	28	77	35	80.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		8		10		12		3
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	7		8		10		11		1

Shooter finally targeted his foot in the second half as his numbers crashed to barely replacement level and his arm finally gave out. Beck will likely return to the game in 2003 on a minor league deal and wind up closing before the end of the year. He's still a capable pitcher, but as he's both a free agent and out for the season, you can't speculate on him even at the end of the your Ultra draft.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Stanton		9	0	2.58	1.36		78	29	80	23	80.1
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	7		8		10		11		2
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	7		8		10		11		Res

Having drafted him in at least three leagues last season, we were quite pleased with Stanton's first half performance. The decreased ERA compared to the last few years seems mostly attributable to good luck, so don't be even slightly surprised if he heads back up to around a 4.00 in 2002. He should continue to be a fantastic endgame pick for a buck or two, unlikely to hurt your team and with the potential to earn double-digits. He's also another reliever on which you can't speculate since Steve Karsay will receive any non-Rivera save opportunities.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Trombley		3	6	3.46	1.19		45	27	38	21	54.2
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		9		10		2
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	5		7		7		10		3

Trombley certainly deserved more of a shot to close in Baltimore than he received while the Orioles seem determined to use the most useless and inexperienced pitchers to blow games and depress their starters. He consistently compiles a better strikeout rate than almost any reliever in their bullpen, and yet they felt comfortable shipping him to Los Angeles for replacement-level talent that they barely even played. Many people might avoid him due to his past problems in the closer's role, but he's both the most established and effective pitcher in the Dodger bullpen.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Todd Jones		5	13	4.24	1.71		54	29	87	32	68.0
DET / MIN		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		9		10		25
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	6		7		8		10		18

Jones is a great example of "skill renting" In 1998 and 1999, he maintained a decent strikeout rate of about 8.4 K/9 while only striking out 1.7 batters for every walk. In 2000, he saved a career-best 42 games while compiling a great 9.4 K/9 and 2.7 K:BB. Instead of capitalizing on this success, he reverted back to his old form with a 1.9 K:BB and 7.1 K:BB that resulted in Matt Anderson assuming the Detroit closer job while Jones was dealt to Minnesota for Mark Redman. He now finds himself as perhaps Colorado's best closing candidate since no other reliever on their roster can combine even this decent level of skill with frequent groundballs.

He also writes a regular column for The Sporting News in which he shares insights on normal big league experiences like his demotion and subsequent trade. He's good baseball player for a writer, but he does offer a somewhat unique perspective in print weekly since he's closer to "rank-and-file" MLBPA status than even most frequently quoted players.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Victor Zambrano		6	2	3.16	1.09		58	18	38	18	51.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		9		10
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	5		7		7		10

After dealing away almost their entire bullpen during the latter half of 2000, Tampa restocked with a few hard-throwing pitchers with good command. Zambrano might have more potential than his fellow pen-mates, but he's more inconsistent and hasn't displayed this level of skill in a previous season. With Yan's breakout second half, I fully expect Zambrano to slot in around $5 again in a full season of middle relief work. Travis Phelps will fight him for any extra closing opportunities, so I just don't envision him as a great gamble for 2003. Try to pick him up as a cheap FAAB acquisition in the middle of the season for his 2003 potential.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bob File		5	0	3.27	1.16		38	29	57	27	74.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		8		9
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	4		6		6		9		Res

File has a lot of supporters in the mainstream media as one of the few remaining pitchers in the Toronto pen but despite these outwardly impressive numbers, his 2001 was quite poor from a skills' perspective. His 2000 MLEs offer hope that his skills might catch up with his major league statistics, although I find it more likely that he struggles this season while bouncing between AAA and the majors. Ricciardi has already brought in several quality arms to compete for bullpen jobs, so you can't depend on File to fill any important role for your team this season.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Danny Patterson		5	1	3.06	1.30==18		27	12	64	22	64.2
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		8		9
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		5		8

Patterson has suffered through two straight years of a declining strikeout rate surprisingly matched by a similar decline in his walk rate. He seems quite likely to drop back to his 1998 levels at some point soon, so I wouldn't feel comfortable using him as anything more than an injury replacement. His new three-year deal makes him overpaid for someone whose statistics just aren't supported by his skills, and Detroit's in serious trouble if they think that he could step in the closer's role after an Anderson injury.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ugueth Urbina		0	9	2.25	0.95		32	3	16	5	20.0
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		7		9
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	4		6		5		9

Urbina simply pitched great after his trade to Boston, with a 32:3 K:BB ratio in 20 IP and nine saves. His second half numbers were even stronger than his great season in 1999, and if anyone in your league remains concerned about his arm injuries, outbid them. With Boston's newly-acquired pitching depth, he'll be presented with a lot of save opportunities, and he should see success from the beginning of the season.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Steve Karsay		0	1	1.25	0.85		44	8	29	6	43.1
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		7		9		6
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	4		6		6		9		9

Karsay was perhaps the best reliever in baseball over the first half of 2001. He slipped a little bit after the All-Star break as his walk and homer rates headed upwards, but he still seems recovered from his injury troubles and poised to establish himself as perhaps the best middle reliever in baseball. He's certainly capable of closing if needed, and while many people decried his somewhat expensive contract with the Yankees, spending around five million on someone with Karsay's potential makes a lot more sense than splitting that sum between former waiver fodder like Van Poppel and Powell in Texas. He could easily earn over $10 on the strength of qualitative numbers and vultured wins alone, so ante up for almost anything in single digits.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Travis Phelps		2	5	3.48	1.24		54	24	53	24	62.0
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		7		9
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	5		6		6		9

Phelps progressed to the majors at a consistent pace over the past couple of seasons, and his improved strikeout rate in the second half of 2002 bodes well for future development. Very few owners will focus on him in the rush to grab the more publicized Zambrano, but he has as much immediate potential as almost any AL middle reliever. He'll easily double any investment of a few dollars.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Tam		2	3	3.01	1.30		44	29	68	25	74.2
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		7		9		7
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		6		9		1

Tam slipped back from his barely-attained 2.0 K:BB in 2000 down to a 1.5 in 2001 on the heels of walk rate that increased close to 50%. He's a decent middle reliever but has no potential to close because of a low career strikeout rate of 5.1 K/9. Turn your attention to more dominant middle relievers if you want to grab cheap pitchers likely to find save opportunities.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Danys Baez		5	0	2.50	1.07		52	20	34	14	50.1
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		7		9		Res
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	4		6		6		9		Res

Baez made tremendous strides in his first year in the majors, striking out over a batter per inning while increasing his K:BB to 3.1 in the second half. Cleveland seems determined to move him to the rotation, and if his arm can handle the conversion, he should be a decent pitcher. However, they should probably spend a year stretching him out in middle relief before adding an extra 100 IP to his workload. I like him at up to several dollars as Wickman's primary setup guy, while I might not even spend that much on him as a starter for fear of injury.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Norm Charlton		4	1	3.02	0.99		48	11	36	16	47.2
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	5		6		7		9
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	4		6		6		9

Charlton made a fantastic comeback from retirement to give Piniella a former Nasty Boy to dominate lefties. His skill ratios were in line with the best numbers of his career, and he would have made a decent injury replacement this season, too. Unfortunately, a season-ending arm injury about a week ago leaves Seattle with Halama as their second best lefty option in the pen, and considering Charlton's age and history, he may have to settle for going out strong in 2001.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rich Garces		6	1	3.90	1.19		51	25	55	29	67.0
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		6		8		6
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		5		8		3

El Guapo reportedly demanded a trade after Boston appeared unwilling to discuss a long-term extension. He's likely to leave as a free agent at the end of the year, and considering his injury history, inconsistent skills, and general athleticism, Boston is likely making the correct decision. Garces offers great potential when pitching effectively, but his command has only been above average once in the past few years, leaving me unwilling to spend more than a few bucks on him in 2002.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Willis Roberts		9	6	4.91	1.49		95	55	142	72	132.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		6		8
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	5		7		8		10

Baltimore appears intent on closing with Roberts despite little apparent indication that he possesses even a single skill that would aid him in that role. His strikeout rate is barely average, his walk rate is poor at best, and he only has one full season in the majors. Alternately, when you examine just his numbers in 28 games of relief, he struck out 27 batters against only 11 walks in 29.2 IP while allowing 31 hits and 5 HR. He also had a solid groundball/flyball ratio of 1.48, so maybe I will defy most conventional roto wisdom and spend a few bucks on this guy in 2002.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ryan Franklin		5	0	3.56	1.28		60	24	76	31	78.1
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	4		6		5		8

Franklin's in the Seattle bullpen mix due to his solid command and decent strikeout rates. Unfortunately, an abundance of homers normally prohibits him from remaining in the majors for the entire season. He should continue to fill their long relief role, but I don't see a lot of upside in these statistics. You're likely looking at one of his best seasons here, so don't expect more than a couple bucks of return on your dollar bid.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Grimsley		1	0	3.02	1.23		61	28	71	27	80.1
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	4		6		5		8

Grimsley finally managed to maintain a solid strikeout rate while also posting one of his best ever walk rates at 3.1 BB/9. Nothing in his skills' history suggests that he'll be able to maintain this, so expect a drop back towards $0 in roto value. He's far more likely to regress to injury replacement status than to challenge Hernandez for saves.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ricardo Rincon		2	2	2.83	1.20		50	21	44	17	54.0
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5		5		8		1
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	3		5		4		8

Rincon returned to both the performance and skill levels of his Pittsburgh days and appears fully recovered from his arm troubles. He certainly will never be worth dealing Brian Giles to acquire him, but he should remain a solid reliever for a few more seasons. He'll likely won't receive the opportunity to earn more than several dollars, so Rincon should be used as either an injury replacement or Dollar Days' roster filler.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jim Mecir		2	3	3.43	1.27		61	26	54	24	63.0
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8		10
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	4		6		5		8		4

Mecir appeared prepared to take over Isringhausen's closing job until the Koch trade. Maybe I'm just irritated since we own Mecir at $6 for another two season in a 5x5 keeper league, but he really should have received a chance at the job. Beane gave up two good lottery tickets in Hinske and Miller to acquire an "established closer", and most of the success that we foresee for Koch arises from his pending indoctrination to the Oakland philosophy. Mecir should continue to pitch effectively as one of the more dependable set-up men in the league, although you probably shouldn't keep him at $6 unless you have no good alternative.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Magnante		3	0	2.77	1.14		23	13	50	17	55.1
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	2		5		3		7

Magnante was the forerunner of the developing Athletics trend that requires Beane to acquire as many lefty relievers as possible named "Mike." He brought in Holtz and Venafro this off-season after realizing that he'd signed Mark Guthrie last year. Magnante's strikeout rate has dropped for the last four seasons, so despite seemingly acceptable statistics, he doesn't appear to have much upside. You'd be much better off just targeting more hard-throwing right-handers.

American League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Be willing to avoid closers in your draft in favor of a few middle relievers for only a couple dollars each. You'll save at least two-dozen bucks to spend on offense and more consistent starting pitchers, and you can always deal from that surplus to grab saves in the middle of the year. There should be no need in almost any league to overpay for saves.