January 25th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Aside from a really cool name, there's a lot for any owner to like about Benoit. He struck out 142 batters in 131 IP at AAA Oklahoma last season, and his hit and home rates were below average. He's obviously blocked by Texas' veteran acquisitions, and as he's both had minor injury problems and occasionally erratic command, he'll likely split 2002 between AAA and the Ranger bullpen. As his statistics appear to have finally caught up with his prospect hype, you should definitely target Benoit in the endgame or minor league draft, depending on where he begins the year.
Romero's starting to show some indication of developing into a major league pitcher. His MLE K:BB ratio has edged up slightly over the last four years, and as he's also been somewhat unlucky with bad defenses, he's a decent gamble for 2002. He has a very good chance of earning a few bucks if given a full-time rotation slot, and the Twins would love to see another lefty establish himself in their rotation.
Alfred couldn't have directed a worse horror story for Sterling after his trade. The Yankees somehow overlooked his disappointing numbers in favor of his promise when healthy in re-signing him to a highly expensive two-year deal. I definitely like him at a few dollars in 2002 as lefties have more success in Yankee stadium and Hitchcock could post impressive strikeout rates against the weak AL East teams.
Stark emerged as a solid prospect rather suddenly in 2001 after a few years of injury troubles and half-decent pitching. His AAA Tacoma numbers were enough to convince Colorado to part with Cirillo for the gamble of three older pitching prospects. He definitely will have some problems at both AAA Colorado Springs and Denver as he's not a great power pitcher and appears a little homer-happy at times. Factor in his rather old age for a "prospect", and Seattle did well to deal him now before he plateaus as a #4 starter.
Harper impressed with great command at AAA Durham last season while again flailing in a brief major league trial. His 25 HR in 155.2 AAA IP concern me somewhat as he's allowed too many homers at almost every level, but with his other ratios looking solid across the board, he deserves an extended shot at the Tampa Bay rotation. Definitely consider risking a buck or two on Harper if he breaks camp with the team since his control gives him a better chance for success than most Devil Ray prospects.
Lopez showed little skill or pitching capability until his trade to Arizona, leaving one to wonder if the simple act of escaping Tampa improves pitchers with 2001 examples including Lopez, Lidle, and even Mecir. I have full confidence in Lopez's chances to succeed in Atlanta, and you should hope that the other owners in your league overly focus on those nineteen losses. He might even return to the decent strikeout rate from his Cleveland days, and you'll want to own him if he does.
Mercedes 2001 ratios were more in line with his 2000 statistics, and if he can manage to combine the two this season, he might earn a couple dollars of value that his skills actually support. His actual value will remain almost completely dependent upon his team as he's not likely to find much success without a good offense and defense behind him. Leaving Baltimore should aid his maturation into a decent starter, but he's also at an age when borderline pitchers can disappear into AAAA land forever.
Wright shows more potential than most of the heralded White Sox pitching prospects since his strikeout rate has actually appeared impressive at times. You should probably wait to pick him up until he puts together a couple decent starts, but a dollar or two in leagues with reserve lists and open transactions won't hurt you. He probably won't reach double-digit value for another year or two, so now may be the time to grab him at an inexpensive price.
Pettyjohn's 2001 season looks eerily similar to Adam Bernero in 2000. Bernero, of course, flamed out fairly badly in AAA as soft-tossers sometimes have problems establishing themselves in the majors. Pettyjohn retains a significant advantage as a lefty, so he should at least be able to make the team as a lefty reliever. I wouldn't gamble on him until I at least saw some solid Spring Training numbers, but there's no reason that he can't earn a couple of bucks in 2002.
The Yankees must have reclaimed Jodie off waivers just to make Kevin Towers look bad in revenge for the Witasick trade. He has practically no chance to make the roster with six expensive starters already under contract and superior pitchers both ahead of him (Lilly and El Duquecito) and behind him (Claussen, etc.). Wait until he leaves New York for another team before considering a pick-up.
Parker shocked nearly everyone by "winning" the fifth starter's slot at the end of Spring Training after two fairly unimpressive seasons at AA Norwich. He allowed 7 ER on 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB, and 1 K in 3 innings in his one 2001 appearance before heading to the DL for the rest of the year with right shoulder inflammation. Parker still could rebound into a decent pitcher, but he really needs a full year of health at AAA before we can accurately judge his major league potential.
Eldred unsurprisingly barely pitched this year as most people would have a difficult time throwing a baseball with a 5-inch screw in their arm. He's likely retired for good, and now that his career has prematurely ended, its time to assess the damage. Phil Garner left him out for 258 IP in 1993 at age 25, allowing him to lead the league in IP, GS, and batters faced. He only reached even 202 IP one more time, and considering the potential displayed back in 1993, some liability system needs to be developed to pay Eldred for Garner's mistake. Pitchers don't know any better - idiot sportswriters and teammates harp about how "manly" pitchers play through injuries. Intelligent managers don't allow their top pitching prospects to injure themselves, and even meager but fair compensation would require the deduction of a hundred thousand a year from Garner's salary to be sent directly to Eldred. Jeff Weaver will be the next victim of Scrap Iron's Scorched Arm pitching philosophy.
Ohka was a fair price for Urbina as Boston needed another hard-thrower in the bullpen. His weak 2001 stats appear largely due to bad luck instead of a true skill deficiency. He should establish himself as a quality #3 starter for Montreal this season, and as long as you don't count on him for many wins or strikeouts, he should help in the other categories.
Rekar seems fully capable of developing into a quality innings' eater now that he's escaped Tampa. His command has been quite decent for the last few years and his OBA is not at the ridiculously high levels that one would expect given these values. He's a solid endgame pick in 2002 as he should return to at least a couple dollars of value.
Wright appears quite unlikely to ever return to the form that made him a media darling at the 1997 World Series. Two years of severe abuse at an extremely young age have robbed Cleveland of one of their top pitching prospects in many years. He's only worth a $1 gamble if you're able to leave him on the DL for the entire year, and with a new wave of hard-throwing youngsters approaching Jacobs Field, there might not even be a 40-man spot available for him in another year or so.
Keisler obviously needs more time in the minors before any team should trust him with a major league job. He strikes out enough batters where I tend to think that he'll wind up as a half-decent lefty specialist. As he certainly shouldn't be on your draft list for 2002, you won't need to worry about his upside for at least another season.
The #2 pick from the 2000 draft wound up in the majors nearly as fast as the most optimistic prognosticators had predicted. Johnson shows immense potential but really should spend the next two seasons in the bullpen to prevent any abuse. He was held to an acceptable level of only about 160 IP in 2001, and the Twins need to insure that their potential ace doesn't injure himself. He's certainly worth a couple dollars in most leagues but recognize that he'll likely spend at least half the season in the minors.
Parque shows little potential to develop into a decent starter as even his MLE strikeout rate barely approached 6 K/9. He's too homer-prone, gives up too many hits, and walks too many batters. So, of course, Jerry Manuel anoints him as the third starter going into camp. He'll likely be out of the rotation by June, so avoid Parque unless you're out of margarine.
Another formerly decent Cleveland starter who's now too old, injury-prone, and ineffective to continue to pitch successfully in the majors, Nagy never dominated hitters and now seems to be vulnerable to even weak batters. There's no reason to ever own him again unless he somehow strings together several solid starts in a row.
Oliver can normally only be counted upon to win a few games while helping you reach the IP minimum. Now that he's been demoted to Boston's bullpen, he's unlikely to even provide that meager boost to your team. He walks too many batters while striking out too few, leaving him undraftable in 2002. Wow - that rhymed.
Burba should re-emerge as a solid fourth or fifth starter for most roto teams as his 2001 troubles don't appear attributable to a decline in skill. Texas will provide equivalent run support and defense to pre-2001 Cleveland teams, leaving Burba a great sleeper in many leagues. He's also one of the few veteran pitchers capable of approaching 200 strikeouts in the right situation, and he should approach those levels again against the either overly-patient or overly-aggressive AL West teams.
Rupe shows the K:BB and K/9 potential to become a top-of-rotation starter but remains victimized by too many homers and hits falling in against a weak defense. He's only a reserve pick in most leagues since you need to wait to see if he'll pitch more consistently before activating him this season. If you can grab him at a buck and stash him away for a year, you might find yourself with a nice bargain for 2003.
Thomas should have a promising major league future if Minnesota allows him the proper development time. He needs a full season at AAA to prove that his great command and strikeout rate at AAA New Britain aren't illusions from one of the better minor league pitchers' parks. I might consider grabbing him at the end of deep minor league drafts, but he won't find much success in the majors until 2003.
Meadows shows little indication of turning into an acceptable major league pitcher. He finally improved his K:BB to a shockingly good 4.5 in the second half while maintaining 6 K/9 but his homer rate stayed almost as high as ever, forcing up his ERA and depressing his roto value further into negative dollars. He's simply not good enough to warrant drafting in most leagues, and if he somehow makes the Twins' rotation over at least a few better candidates and real prospects like Lohse and Romero, you'll know why they won't be able to finish better than 3rd in 2002.
Myette showed solid potential in 2001 as he received his first significant major league exposure. While his actual statistics were somewhat weak, his combined MLEs appear very promising for his future with a K/9 approaching 8 and an acceptable 2 K:BB level. Another year at AAA will allow him to develop his skills against veteran hitters, and he should be set for a rotation spot in 2003. A great AAA season will also make him solid trade bait for a rebuilt Texas team verging on the edge of the playoffs, and while I likely wouldn't want Myette at the beginning of the season, grab him if he receives a post-trade opportunity.
Holt's trend of a rising OBA continued as batters hit .316 against him, taking advantage of the spacious foul ground to single him to death. For some bizarre reason, he signed with Colorado as a free agent, and a year at AAA Colorado Springs certainly won't help him re-establish himself in the majors. He needs to find a team with a relatively small ballpark that doesn't have much room for hits to roll around, somewhere like Wrigley Field or Miller Park where the fielders will have time to get his many scattered hits. Until he winds up a in a similar stadium, you probably should avoid drafting him.
Glynn displays absolutely no capacity to continue pitching in the majors. His strikeout rates are dreadful and only matched by walk rates now higher than his K/9. There might not be a worse pitcher in baseball to own for your fantasy team, so hopefully the thirty GMs will realize his ineffectiveness and keep him out of the big leagues.
One of the greatest country artists of all time, Kenny Rogers has scored massive hits with songs like "The Gambler." As one of the pre-eminent Texas Rangers, his past success keeps him at the front of current Ranger success and failure. His highest values have occurred when he's received the best run support as his skills are fairly weak, so even with a likely high 2002 win total, you should likely avoid him in 2002.
Hamilton rebounded from two seasons largely lost to injury to begin to reassert himself in Toronto's rotation. The Blue Jays got tired of his very high hit rates and released him before he was truly recovered. He should receive a long look in Spring Training with the Cincinnati, and if he's really healthy and can keep his H/9 down, he could find success in 2002.
Drew does not appear ready for the majors, and as he's still quite young, Cleveland can afford to give him another season or two in the minors. His ceiling is low since he doesn't strike out many batters, so the best you can hope for is likely an emergence as a solid #4 starter in a few years. He's certainly not a good minor league pick at this time, and there's really no reason to own him at all until at least the middle of 2003.
Garner has designated Cornejo as the fifth starter despite only four AAA starts in his minor league career. Dombrowski definitely needs to send him back to AAA for a year of seasoning, and while he's at it, Cornejo should probably go back down with his manager. I like his potential for 2003, but he seems much too raw to see any consistent success this season.
Bell still has good potential but might be better off with a full season in the bullpen to work on his command in a slightly lower-pressure situation. Texas will need a decent long reliever, and with most of their other prospects needing to start at AAA, Bell should be a nice addition to the pen. His upside is dependent upon him regaining his strikeout abilities from 1999 and 2000. Consider him for Dollar Days as a reliever, but otherwise ignore him for this season.
Mlicki was torched in Tiger stadium on his way to the lowest 2001 American League draft value while not even spending a full season in the AL. He should find more success with Houston as he can't really find less success than these statistics. When gambling on cheap starters, you should try to avoid pitchers like Mlicki with seemingly no ability to strike anyone out.
Today's Fantasy Rx: Consider FAABing any starter with a strong strikeout rate and questionable command that finds himself demoted to the bullpen. Like Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel, certain pitchers can dominate for an inning or two but seem incapable of lasting for several innings. With the wealth of young starts in the American League, some will get bumped to the pen in favor of higher-upside prospects or more established veterans, and these exiled starters offer significant roto potential if you choose wisely.
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tim@rotohelp.com. |
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