Today's Fantasy Rx.

American League Starting Pitchers with $-2 to $-4 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Casey Fossum		3	0	4.87	1.44		26	20	44	24	44.1
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	-2		1		-3		2
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		2		-4		2

Fossum, like so many other young Boston pitchers, appears likely to spend much of 2002 in the minors after the acquisitions of Hermanson, Burkett, and Oliver. Unlike his competition, Fossum could be kept as a lefty out of the pen. He certainly appears ready for major league pitching, but as he's never pitched above AA, up to a full year at AAA should help him refine his skills. Grab him for a buck or two if he makes the team, and consider spending at least a mid-round minor league pick on him if he doesn't.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Paxton Crawford		3	0	4.75	1.47		25	13	40	19	36.0
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-3		2
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		2		-4		2		3

While Crawford doesn't have Fossum's upside, he's more prepared to succeed in the majors right now and appears a logical candidate to replace any injured starter. He doesn't strike out many batters, so I'd suspect he's likely to replace Castillo at the end of the rotation in 2003. You could consider a low round pick on him, but until Boston shows a commitment to a young pitcher, there's no way to guess who will make the club and who will remain stuck in AAA as trade bait.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ted Lilly		5	0	5.37	1.47		112	51	126	72	120.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	0		3		0		5		Res

Lilly shows tremendous promise and should be the Yankees 4th starter over Wells and Hitchcock. Of course, given that Lilly is making well under 10% of each of the other two, he'll likely be moved for bench help in the spring. The Yankees should just keep him as a second or third lefty in the pen, but as he's reportedly out of options and fully capable of succeeding as a starter now, someone should really take advantage of New York's largess of riches.

64.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mark Redman		2	0	4.50	1.57		33	23	68	29	58.0
MIN / DET		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		7
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		1		-5		2		10

Redman's difficulties, especially with regards to his lower K/9 rate in 2001, can likely be largely attributed to his injury troubles. Comerica will help reign in his occasional homer bouts, and if his command and dominance edge back up slightly, he could find significant success with the Tigers. He won't win many games in front of the poor Detroit lineup, but I definitely like his roto potential for up to several dollars.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Steve Parris		4	0	4.60	1.58		49	41	126	54	105.2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		2
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-2		2		-3		3		1

There is no reason to own Parris even with a great offense behind him, and he has the potential to ruin any team's qualitative numbers. Parris' K:BB and K/9 ratios have declined for three straight seasons while his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased since 1998. Stay away from unless he ever again displays the skill levels from 1998.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Moehler		0	0	3.38	0.88		2	1	6	3	8.0
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		6
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	-4		1		-6		1		10

Moehler will never be a dominant pitcher but appears capable of comfortably filling the third of fourth starter's slot for many teams. His 2002 value remains low as we don't know whether he'll be healthy by Spring Training or miss the entire first half of the season. I find the latter option far more likely, so only bid a buck or two in the auction and then take a chance on an inconsistent rookie for a few months.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rick Bauer		0	0	4.64	1.33		16	9	35	17	33.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		1		-5		1

Bauer definitely could find some success in Baltimore, although he likely needs a full year at AAA to hone his limited skills. His homer rate could be a problem with the new Camden dimensions, and as he neither strikes out many batters nor receives much run support, he's not an acceptable pick in most leagues. Only gamble a buck if he lights up Spring Training and appears to hold the confidence of the organization, also make sure you have an exit strategy if his walk rate heads up.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Nick Bierbrodt		3	0	4.55	1.60		56	27	71	31	61.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		2		-3		3

Some columnist suggested a few months ago that Bierbrodt had a great name for a Milwaukee pitcher, similar to Jim Bruske another potential Spuds MacKenzie replacement. We couldn't agree more, but unfortunately for Bierbrodt, he's stuck in Tampa as the potentially overworked future rotation ace. Despite injury concerns, he's worth a hefty bid in most leagues as he's one of the few young pitchers or left-handers who offers considerable strikeout potential. Even if Tampa's weak offense limits his win opportunities, he should earn close to double-digits in most league and over that level in 5x5 leagues.

69.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike MacDougal		1	0	4.70	1.43		7	4	18	8	15.1
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		1		-6		1

MacDougal is one of the top remaining Royal prospects despite relatively poor command in his two full seasons of minor league ball. Kansas City inexplicably promoted him to AAA after an unimpressive 2000 year at A+ Wilmington, and it's to his credit that he posted very similar numbers at a far more advanced level. His hit rate crept up to one per inning from less than .8 and his homer rate also increased, but he still performed admirably given the extent of the jump. I can't recommend him at this time since he appears to need either a second full year at AAA or some time in the bullpen, and with the Royals still reluctant to bring in a capable manager, MacDougal's immediate upside is far too limited for most roto teams.

70.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kyle Lohse		4	0	5.68	1.45		64	29	102	57	90.1
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		2		-3		3

Lohse might need at least another half season in the minors to establish more consistency in his pitching before he deserves a full-time rotation slot. However, his 2001 MLEs indicate a solid upside in 2002 if the Twins give him the chance. He likely has the inside track to at least the 5th starter's spot, and as his 2001 numbers looks suspiciously like Joe Mays' 2000 MLEs, I'm certainly willing to take a chance on him this year. After all, what have you got to Lohse?

71.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rick Reed		4	0	5.19	1.57		43	14	92	39	67.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		1
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		1		-5		2

Reed did not pitch demonstrably worse in Minnesota than for the Mets, so the drastic fall in value seems attributable to suddenly rising hit and homer rates. Even if he rescinds his trade demand and stays with the Twins, he's likely to see a boost in value as a healthy Cristian Guzman helps to reduce the number of grounders making their way to the outfield. If he returns to the NL or goes to any team with a great defense, expect his value to head back into the mid-teens, as he seems quite capable of maintaining a consistent level of effectiveness for another few seasons.

72.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bret Saberhagen		1	0	6.00	1.27		10	0	19	10	15.0
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		1		1
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	-4		1		-6		1		Res

Saberhagen finally announced his retirement after losing practically all of the last two years to injury. He's been an extremely effective pitcher when healthy for the past sixteen seasons, although most of us will remember him for his great odd-numbered year performances in the 1980's including leading the Royals to the 1985 World Series' title. He's one of the all-time great command pitchers, as he retires with a career K:BB ratio of 3.64. Don't be surprised if he makes one more comeback attempt in the next two years, and if he demonstrates some semblance of health, he's one of the few pitchers since the dawn of roto who seems incapable of hurting your team.

73.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Sean Douglass		2	0	5.31	1.57		17	11	21	12	20.1
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		0
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-4		1		-6		1

Unlike so many of his fellow Baltimore prospects, Douglass has not been overworked in the last two seasons. He posted solid performances at both AA Bowie and AAA Rochester before this brief cup-of-coffee with the Orioles. His history suggest a pitcher perfectly capable of approaching a strikeout per inning with a K:BB well over 2, and as he actually improved his homer rate while progressing to AAA, he might be one of the few Baltimore pitchers worth owning in 2002. All I'll need to see is a willingness on the organization's part to keep him on the roster, and I might be willing to bid close to double-digits.

74.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Steve Green		0	0	3.00	1.67		4	6	4	2	6.0
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		0
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		0		-7		0		0

He hasn't pitched more than 125 innings in either of the last two seasons, so he really need a full year starting at AAA for us to determine his upside. Green has certainly pitched impressively at times during his minor league career, but his health problems bar me from strongly recommending him. With the sudden arrival of quality major league rotation depth in Anaheim, he should find the minor league time necessary to allow his skills to mature. He's perfectly acceptable as a mid-season injury replacement if he receives a call-up, although he likely won't be worth much to your team until 2003.

75.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mac Suzuki		2	0	5.30	1.54		37	25	61	33	56.0
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-5		0		Res
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		1		-6		1		3

Suzuki isn't only a poor pitcher, but he shows no ability to make decent career decisions. His K:BB ratio has been close to 1 over the last five years as both a starter and reliever, and after Muser kept jerking him between the rotation and bullpen in 2001, negating any potential skill gains from the beginning of the season, Suzuki should have never returned to Kansas City in 2001. He might be better off spending a year starting at AAA to work on a consistent approach to batters, although I suspect that the Royals will find a way to keep him as a spot starter even with a glut of young pitching at the major league level. Someone will likely draft him due to mere name recognition; make sure that someone isn't you.

76.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Gil Heredia		7	0	5.58	1.58		48	29	144	68	109.2
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-3		0		-6		0		14
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-3		1		-5		2		8

A sabrmetic darling back in 1998 when Billy Beane gave him a chance to start in the majors, Heredia pitched great for two seasons before suffering a complete loss of command over the last two years. He's unlikely to return to an acceptable level given his age and relatively limited time in the majors. Some team will give him a shot in Spring Training, but until you see him pitch decently for a month or two during the season, you probably shouldn't acquire him for your team.

77.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dan Reichert		8	0	5.63	1.61		77	67	131	77	123.0
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-4		1		-7		-1		3
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		1		-5		2		3

Kansas City is one of those teams with several starting candidates that all appear deserving of more time in the minors. Reichert's never approached a 2 K:BB ratio in the last few seasons, and as he has a difficult time keeping his strikeout rate at an acceptable level, he belongs back in the minors for more experience rather than providing defensive practice for the Royals' position players. He definitely shows promise for sometime in the future, but as he neither pitched well in the first or second half of 2001 nor improved when moved to the bullpen, wait at least a half season before considering him for your team.

American League Starters will conclude tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you haven't already picked it up, go buy the STATS' Blue Book, 2002 Player Profiles. You should likely own most of their primary publications, but the blue book allows you to determine if a pitcher should be used as a starter or reliever by providing the appropriate breakdowns, as well as the normal splits against righties and lefties, etc. We find that their yearly set of tomes is indispensable in player evaluation, and if you want to make your own decisions on which pitchers to own, the Blue Book is likely the most appropriate publication.

If you're interested, we posted a new "Good Chicago Sports" yesterday, with the normal commentary on the five major teams along with an in-depth look at the 2002-2004 White Sox.