Today's Fantasy Rx.

Apparently our first major advertising push is working as a lot of new readers viewed this column yesterday. For those of you just joining us, welcome to Your Daily Fantasy Rx, one of the very few daily fantasy columns on the net. We're in the middle of AL pitcher reports, beginning with starting pitchers (pitchers who started in half or more of their 2001 appearances), continuing with relievers in a couple days, and then finishing with prospects next week. If you've been with us for a while, feel free to skip down to today's reviews, but if you're new here, I've provided some brief background information.

Over the last two months, I've reviewed every major league player from the 2001 season, all post-2001 minor league free agents, and significant prospects from every team at the AAA and AA levels. We began with catchers back in November and should be finished with everyone by the first week of February.

Each major league review includes 2001 5x5 roto statistics, four 4x4 values, four 5x5 values, a few sentences of commentary, and some biographical data including his 2001 salaries in the LABR and Tout Wars' "expert" leagues.

I spent the first four days of this column discussing our valuation strategies. If you're interested in how we determine our values, please read the columns from November 15th to 18th. They're available here, along with all Rx columns to date. All old columns on this website are available in the archive, organized by date, available on every page on the left, along with links to all current columns.

Please e-mail me if you have any questions or comments. We look forward to reader mail at Rotohelp to tell us how we're doing and what you'd like to see us cover in the future.

Thank you for visiting on website, and enjoy today's review of:

American League Starting Pitchers with $1 to $-1 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Pat Rapp		5	0	4.76	1.41		82	71	169	90	170.0
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		4		2		5
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	2		5		3		7

Pat Rapp is one of the most unexceptional pitchers in the major leagues. He remains employed because teams with young pitchers need someone to pitch 150+ IP at the back of the rotation and to cover when the youngsters hit the DL. His K:BB ratio has stayed between 1.1 and 1.4 for the last five seasons, and he hasn't demonstrated any tendencies that would indicate either improvement or deterioration in 2002. He actually saw a slight improvement in OBA this year, so he'll likely see a corresponding rise in 2002 that should lead to increased qualitiative statistics and negative value.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
David Wells		5	0	4.47	1.40		59	21	120	50	100.2
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		3		1		5		15
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	1		4		2		6		18

I'll likely max out in single digits in 2002 bidding, but if you're not afraid of going to the Wells again, he could earn a profit on most bids. Until his 2001 injury, he hadn't earned much less than $20 for the last several years. Older pitchers can often suddenly decline into roto uselessness, although Wells appears happy to be returning to New York while happily ignoring the small fact that he left his dignity scattered between Chciago and Phoenix. He could earn between $-10 and $20, so holding around $5 remains the safe play.

30

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chris Michalak		8	1	4.41	1.55		67	55	157	67	136.2
TOR / TEX		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		3		1		5
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	1		4		1		6

Michalak will be lucky to see the majors in 2002, as he signed a minor league contract to return to Texas. With the variety of pitching depth in Arlington and both youngsters like Mario Ramos and veterans like Hideki Irabu waiting in AAA, I can't see someone with as little control as Michalak fighting his way onto the staff. He surprised everyone in the first half of last season, but considering his skill level and age, he's somewhat unlikely to see more time beyond another cup-of-coffee.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rick Helling		12	0	5.17	1.48		154	63	256	124	215.2
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		3		1		5		13
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	4		6		6		9		14

Helling looks like a great 2002 buy if fence-scalers like Steve Finley can help reduce the number of homers that he allows. He should easily earn near double-digits of value and with his improved control from the second half appears poised as a great roto bargain. Many owners will ignore him in fear of his past high ERA and WHIP. Remember that he'll be facing other teams' weakest pitchers after their hitters have flailed against Randy and Schilling, and don't be afraid to go the extra dollar.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Scott Schoeneweis		10	0	5.08	1.48		104	77	227	116	205.1
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	1		3		0		4		Res
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	2		5		3		7		2

You should be familiar with his pattern by now. For Schoeneweis, April showers may bring May flowers but May flowers cause him to lose all ability to pitch. Maybe he's really allergic to summer pollens. He's not even a good pitcher, so there's no reason to draft him unless you want to take a month of good stats and then trade or release him the second you hear that frighteningly haunting Maypole Dance Music wafting from the nearest elementary school.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kip Wells		10	0	4.79	1.55		99	61	145	71	133.1
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		3		0		4		Res
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	2		5		2		7		5

Wells appears ready to emerge as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with even more potential after a trade that leaves him as perhaps the Pirates' ace-by-default. He pitched great in the first half before losing most of his control, and since he's entering his mid-20's without a lot of abuse on his arm, he should be able to regain his skills and carry them over a full season. You should be able to grab him fairly cheap as most owners will notice his unimpressive totals, so remember that he's capable of approaching $20 within the next year or two and bid appropriately.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Sidney Ponson		5	0	4.94	1.43		84	37	161	76	138.1
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		2		-1		4		8
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	1		4		1		6		9

Ponson appears capable of emerging as a solid component of most any rotation since Baltimore seems determined to deal him for a potential star on offense. With all the abuse he's suffered over the last couple of years, the Orioles actually might make the correct decision here. Of course, considering that he's been rumored in trade for over a year but seems set to return in 2002, they'll fail to complete the deal and leave him out there for another 200 IP. His value plummets as home plate moves closer to the outfield, so you'll likely want to avoid Ponson unless you can buy him for only a buck or two and then leave him on your bench until he performs decently this season.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Orlando Hernandez		5	0	4.85	1.39		77	42	90	51	94.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		2		-1		3		15
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	1		4		1		5		12

Ducky appears set to move on from New York as the Yankees have a full rotation in both the Bronx and Columbus without him. I'd be curious to see if some team would be interested in a three-way deal that would land Hernandez in San Francisco with Livan, move Kirk Rueter to a team desperate to add a lefty, and send the Yankees a decent low-level prospect. While several columnists seem to believe that Hernandez is worth someone like Erstad, I find that suggestion laughable. He's heading towards his late-30's after a relatively lost season due to injury problems, and his command seems as questionable as ever. I like him for a few bucks, but I'd have to see where he lands before commenting further on his 2002 potential.

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
James Baldwin		7	0	4.61	1.54		42	38	109	49	95.2
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		2		-1		3		4
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	0		3		-1		4		3

Baldwin showed practically nothing in the first half of the season, so I'm quite surprised that the Sox managed to pull someone with as much potential as Onan Masaoka from the Dodgers' clutches. Baldwin always seems to manage a positive value by the end of the season, so especially if he lands on a team with good offense, bid a couple bucks and hope everyone else remembers his 5.00+ ERAs from pre-2000. His command seems mildly stabilized, and after ripping on him for several seasons, I'm finally prepared to recommend him at a low salary.

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kris Wilson		6	1	5.19	1.50		67	32	132	63	109.1
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-2		3
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	0		3		-1		4

Wilson looked rather impressive upon entering the rotation, until Muser left him on the mound for 123 pitches in Seattle on July 24th. He never even managed another respectable performance after that week, leaving his future as a starter in doubt. Until Muser leaves KC, I don't feel confident in any Royal pitcher above a buck or two, but Wilson probably has better command than most of his competition. Considering him one of the best of a very questionable lot going into the season.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Matt Wise		1	0	4.38	1.32		50	18	47	24	49.1
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-2		3		1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4		Res

Wise was all psyched about the upcoming season and his spot in the rotation until he heard of the Sele and Appier acquisitions on consecutive days. He shouldn't worry as he's a much better pitcher than Schoeneweis and Ortiz remains near the DL after years of abuse. Wise has more potential than Joe Mays did at this time a year ago, as he could actually strike out several hitters a game. You definitely need to target this guy in your drafts as he should at least remain in long relief out of Spring Training and might out pitch almost everyone on the team.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chuck Finley		8	0	5.54	1.46		96	35	131	70	113.2
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		2		-2		2		15
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	1		4		0		5		16

When you draft Finley, you're acquiring an older pitcher with decent 2002 upside who happens to be married to Tawny Kitaen, former wife of David Coverdale and 1980's MTV star. Even with Cleveland's decline in offensive firepower, they should remain above average on both sides of the ball, and as Colon, Sabathia, and perhaps even Danys Baez will remain above Finley in the rotation, he should be able to dominate against inexperienced youngsters. I can't see him earning more than $10, but he has a much better chance of improving over last season than someone more injury-prone like David Wells.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rocky Biddle		7	0	5.39	1.47		85	52	137	77	128.2
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-2		2
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	0		3		-1		5

Biddle wound up on the DL like seemingly every Sox pitcher except Buehrle and Foulke. He offers some potential when healthy but seems a few years away from consistent positive value. With the wealth of higher upside pitchers about to hit Comiskey Park, Biddle does not appear to be a good gamble for 2002.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chris George		4	0	5.59	1.36		32	18	83	46	74.0
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		1		-3		2		1
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	-2		2		-3		3		Res

Some notable prospect analysts have compared George to Tom Glavine, a seemingly laughable association until you realize that George is still quite young and should begin to show solid command of his pitches in the next year or two. He'll never strike out many batters, so his future value rests entirely upon his K:BB and HR/9. Considering the problems with Royal management, you probably want to avoid him for another season or two until you begin to see homer rates below 1 accompanied by solid control. He appears to be the type of pitcher who will suddenly "get it" one day, and if he starts putting together a few solid starts in a row, you might want to consider grabbing him a little ahead of schedule.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Adrian Hernandez		0	0	3.68	1.14		10	10	15	9	22.0
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		1		-3		2		4
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		1		-5		2		1

The other Yankee Hernandez also appears blocked by the high-priced veterans in the rotation. He offers incredible potential when given a shot in the majors, as his MLE K/9 have approached a batter per inning, so once someone teaches him to avoid walks, he could be a good starter in most any rotation. If the Yankees keep him as a 2003 or 2004 replacement for one of their starters, they will be quite happy with their decision. Strongly consider grabbing him if available in your minor league draft, and hope they don't deal him for major league bench help.

American League Starters will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Gamble on an old AL lefty in one of your 5x5 leagues. Either Wells or Finley will likely be under-priced due to their 2001 difficulties. I doubt they could earn much more than $15 and they're certainly risks considering recent injury problems, but they should be available for single-digits in many leagues, and even if they hit the DL at some point, they should definitely help you when healthy.