Today's Fantasy Rx.

American League Starting Pitchers with $2 to $9 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Hideo Nomo		13	0	4.50	1.35		220	96	171	99	198.0
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		9		12		13		6
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	13		12		19		18		10

Nomomania returned in early April as he threw the only impressive no-hitter of the year. He led the league in both strikeouts and walks allowed, while finishing fifth in OBA, suggesting that no one made contact against him whether the ball was over the plate or just a little bit outside. Returning to LA and a likely lower rotation slot should only help continue his rebirth from a low point when no team wanted him in 1999. He's definitely someone to grab in any league, and you certainly want him if you count strikeouts.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Roy Halladay		5	0	3.16	1.16		96	25	97	37	105.1
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	9		9		12		13		Res
2001 Age: 20	5x5:	9		9		13		13		Res

Halladay enjoyed perhaps the most interesting "comeback" season in the majors as Toronto simply walked him through the minors again. Beginning in the bullpen at A+ Dunedin, they let him regain his confidence for a month, started him five games at AA Tennessee and two games at AAA Syracuse before promoting him to the majors. Perhaps Halladay simply believes he can dominate anyone after compiling a 57:9 K:BB ratio in 68.2 minor league IP. After posting the best skill ratios in his career, you have to remain slightly cautious of a repeat of these levels, but most owners will be ecstatic if he can keep a K:BB around 3.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Paul Abbott		17	0	4.25	1.42		118	87	145	77	163.0
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		9		12		13		6
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	10		10		14		14		8

We exposed a $1 Abbott to an expansion draft last spring as we expected a bad slump after a 5:4 K:BB ratio in 2000. Of course we lost him, but between the combination of over a hundred inning jump to 179 IP in 2000 and the 3 K/9 drop in his strikeout rate, there was little reason to expect any contribution from him other than a few wins. Ignore the seventeen wins as he'll never approach that total again, Seattle will be lucky if he stays healthy the entire year, and stop your bidding before you're half way to $10.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chris Carpenter		11	0	4.09	1.41		157	75	229	98	215.2
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		9		12		13		4
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	11		11		16		15		6

Especially in keeper leagues, you'll want to grab him at anything up to $10, and then hope that Ricciardi decides he needs at least one starter over 25. As he doesn't throw particularly hard, he might be squeezed from a suddenly young and talented rotation, especially if his inclusion will help in removing Raul Mondesi and Esteban Loaiza from the payroll. Watch his walk rate carefully. If he starts flaring up to over 4 in a few games in a row, dump him off for younger talent. He doesn't have the power necessary to withstand those control problems.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Johnson		10	0	4.09	1.38		114	77	194	89	196.0
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		9		12		12
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	9		10		13		14		Res

Baltimore's pitchers suddenly appear much more questionable with home plate moved seven feet back towards the outfield. Johnson ranges from mildly homer-prone to seriously dinger-happy, and considering he already walks too many batters, you shouldn't even own him in 2002. He'll need nearly a miracle to match 2001's double-digit wins, and with a second half slump suggesting a return to 5+ ERAs, he's far too risky for anyone to acquire.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Frank Castillo		10	0	4.21	1.27		89	35	138	64	136.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		8		11		12		5
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	8		9		12		13		10

Boston grabbed solid yet inexpensive rotation-filler in Castillo, and he should continue to provide a dependable veteran at the end of their rotation. Since he's never posted strikeout rates much better than average, you'll need to watch his walk rate carefully for signs of return to his AAAA days. He needs to keep his BB/9 below 3 to retain significant value, although he could be a major sleeper in 2002 as he'll face mostly unproven rookies as a fifth starter while an improved offense should boost his win totals.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Suppan		10	0	4.37	1.38		120	74	227	106	218.1
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		8		11		12		7
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	9		9		13		13		8

I'll never understand why bad teams want to deal their best players to "cut payroll" while adding "proven veterans" for "roster depth" on their way to "last place" and "Happy Revenue-Sharing We Make Profits Land." Kansas City needs Suppan as the only pitcher on staff that guarantees 200+ IP. He hasn't posted an acceptable strikeout rate since 1998, and he's also showing a nasty reverse-platoon split given righties batted 71 points higher than lefties against him in 2001. While Suppan still has the chance to return to a higher skill level, this consistent mediocrity leads to trade offers, so keep your bids in his 2001 value range, hope for the best, and know that the Royals' new uniforms will solve all their problems.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ramon Ortiz		13	0	4.36	1.43		135	76	223	101	208.2
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		8		10		11		4
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	9		9		13		13		10

Three straight years of a falling strikeout rate will leave many pitchers semi-useless, and even if Ortiz's HR/9 continues to head down, you can't expect anything above average skill levels any time soon. Thanks to overwork at an extremely young age, he remains a prime candidate for a lengthy DL trip this season. While he has more immediate upside than someone like Suppan, he's simply not a safe acquisition unless you have the roster depth to withstand a lost half-season.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tanyon Sturtze		11	1	4.42	1.43		110	79	200	96	195.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		9		10		3
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	8		8		11		12		3

Someone in the organization wrote down the wrong assignment on a memo and Sturtze wound up as the best pitcher in their rotation for a season. His skills continued to deteriorate and give little hope for above-average qualitative statistics. Sturtze's entire value will depend on how much run support he receives from the Devil Rays' offense. Okay, you can stop laughing now. His ratios indicate that he'd continue this success in the bullpen but shows no ability to maintain any pitching consistency past a couple innings of work. Avoid him unless he's not starting.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Josh Towers		8	0	4.49	1.29		58	16	165	70	140.1
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		8		10
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	5		7		7		10

If his 1.8 second half HR/9 is indicative of his future, Towers' nickname will be changing from "Control" to "Fawlty". Only 6 batters of every twenty-seven fail to put the ball in play against him. Even a walk rate of only 1 BB/9 doesn't help much if he'll be allowing close to two homers a game. Baltimore's defense looks shoddy at best for the next year or two, so stay away from Towers until the Orioles begin employing a young and speedy OF corp.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ismael Valdes		9	0	4.45	1.39		100	50	177	81	163.2
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		7		9		4
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	6		7		8		10		6

Blisterman should find success on any team in the league as an average innings' eater with a great chance of earning $20 once in the next five years. Los Angeles' Pastaman slagged his arm at an extremely young age, leaving Valdes with few skills remaining from his dominant Dodger days. His command should always remain acceptable, although his value could plummet to the low single-digits if his homer rate ever edges up again.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Joe Kennedy		7	0	4.44	1.33		78	34	122	58	117.2
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	4		6		6		9

The founder of an American political dynasty, Kennedy returned from the grave at age 113 to give the Devil Rays' a promising rookie starter. He was forced to handle an extreme workload at a young age on his way to building a family fortune. Kennedy once donated a statue to Scotland that now stands in a huge park in Glasgow. Jess and I wed at a nearby location and later found ourselves taking pictures in the park next to that statue. After a few photos and upon closer inspection, we realized that the impressive statue donated by Kennedy featured not just a lion, but a lion feasting on very bloody carrion not readily visible until you stood within a few feet. Kennedy will wind up as carrion for hitters unless Tampa begins to show some intelligence in their usage patterns of him.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Calvin Maduro		5	0	4.23	1.27		51	36	83	44	93.2
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		5		7
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	3		5		4		8

Maduro certainly has the talent necessary for a huge breakout season sometime in the next few years. Over the last several seasons, he's reached a strikeout rate approaching a batter per inning and walk rate of only a third of that. If he could ever combine those extremes along with keeping his homer rate low, his value would fly up into the high-teens. Unfortunately, 2002 does not appear to be the year for this improvement as his displayed skills in 2001 will impress no one other than the Baltimore brass. If he ever starts assembling a few solid starts in a row, jump on his bandwagon early, but otherwise avoid him for the next year or two.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jose Lima		5	0	4.71	1.26		43	22	120	59	112.2
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		4		7
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	3		5		3		7

The Lima for Mlicki trade appears to have worked out well for both sides as each pitcher seemingly reversed his horribly negative value from the other league into a few bucks of worth for risk-taking speculative FAABers. I strongly suspect that Lima will hit double-digit value again sometime in the next few years, and there's little reason for it not to happen in Detroit. If he can manage to hold down a skyrocketing homer rate, you might find yourself with a nice bargain, although I have no intention of owning him again in any league where I can't bench him at will.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Pat Hentgen		2	0	3.47	1.12		33	19	51	24	62.1
BAL Orioles		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		4		7		4
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	2		5		3		7		1

Hentgen rewarded his owners with over a month of very acceptable stats before heading to the DL, thereby opening up a roster spot on both the Baltimore and your roster for Towers. Even if Hentgen recovers this season, he won't improve upon these numbers in the modified and more hitter-friendly Camden Yards. I might gamble a reserve pick on him, but enough people will remember his days in Toronto that he should fetch a few bucks when brought up for bid.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
John Halama		10	0	4.73	1.43		50	26	132	58	110.1
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	3		4		3		6		1
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	2		5		3		7		4

Halama's only effective when his walk rate is below 2 BB/9. Otherwise, he starts allowing too many baserunners and winds up grooving a longball. He'll continue to find limited success, but really may be better suited for a relief role. Nothing in the last few years suggests that he'd be more than an adequate fourth starter, and with the Mariners' approaching pitching depth, he'll need a great year to keep his rotation spot, an unlikely proposition at best.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Erik Hiljus		5	0	3.41	1.38		67	21	70	25	66.0
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		3		6
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	3		5		3		7

Hiljus should be a very usable component on most any fantasy pitching staff as long as he's a secondary factor and not one of your three or so primary starters. He has great command and promising strikeout rates, but his second half ratios of 2.4 K:BB and 7.7 K/9 might be more in line with his probable 2002 stats. These statistics still hold promise for perhaps the best fifth starter in the league, although I wouldn't be comfortable remaining in any bidding up closer to double-digits.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Paul Byrd		6	0	4.05	1.41		49	22	110	42	93.1
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		3		6		Res
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	2		5		2		7

Byrd started for Kansas City after a couple of relief appearances for Philadelphia, and as he's re-signed with the Royals, he's somewhat likely to earn a starting spot from veteran-happy Tony Muser. He no longer has the skills to be anything more than a barely average starter, but even an average performance in Spring Training should earn him a rotation spot. You might want to gamble a buck as long as you can pull him at the first sign of a growing walk rate, although I'd prefer safer bets with more upside.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
David Cone		9	0	4.31	1.51		115	57	148	65	135.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	2		4		3		6		Res
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	4		6		6		9

Cone made a fantastic return from a horribly unlucky 2000 season. The only significant differences between the last three years were slightly elevated walk and homer rates along with a 70 point jump in OBA in 2000. He's far more likely to drop back to those levels than sustain his regained command, but he certainly offers some promise if he lands on a team with a good offense and infield defense. Don't draft him in any league with limited transactions, although he's a better gamble than a young guy with no history of success.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brandon Lyon		5	0	4.29	1.24		35	15	63	30	63.0
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		3		6
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	1		4		1		6

Buck Martinez will keep Lyon's workload down or risk unemployment by Ricciardi. Don't expect him to see even 180 major league innings as Toronto has enough pitching depth to give him the occasional rest. He offers little strikeout upside and lives on extremely low walk rates, so only bid a few bucks since the best you can hope for is a value in the low teens, while he could just as easily return to this level next season.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Doug Davis		11	0	4.45	1.55		115	69	220	92	186.0
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	2		4		2		6		Res
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	4		6		5		8		3

Davis offers immense promise if he can build on his second half walk rate improvement while incorporating his minor league power. Everyone knows that he'll win at least a dozen games with that offense behind him, so target him for wins and be happy with any qualitative statistics above league average. While he certainly could break-out in 2002, I suspect his increased production will more likely occur in another year or two.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chad Durbin		9	0	4.93	1.45		95	58	201	98	179.0
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		2		5
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	3		5		4		8

Durbin offers similar immediate potential to Davis in terms of raw skill but after taking into account the difference in offenses and organization tendencies, I'd be hard-pressed to bid more than a buck on him. His value will start improving if he can somehow increase his strikeout rate to over 6 K/9, but you might want to wait another year before gambling on that improvement. The truly sad aspect of this situation is that as weak as Durbin's skills appear, he's still a better bet than almost any other young Royal starter.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Esteban Loaiza		11	0	5.02	1.47		110	40	239	106	190.0
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		2		5		7
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	4		6		5		8		9

Loaiza pitched a great Opening Day ballgame to kick off the season before left-handers continued their dominance of him by increasing their BA to .329 against him, an increase of 40 points from 2000 and seventy points from 1999. Right-handers have held steady at a little under .290 for the past few seasons, so even with solid command, he's unlikely to suddenly return to double-digits. Of course, if hits really are random and his OBA falls, he's in line to push his value upwards at least a few dollars. I'd certainly consider gambling on him to fill out my rotation, although I wouldn't rely on him for primary pitching production.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Paul Wilson		8	0	4.88	1.43		119	52	165	82	151.1
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		2		5		7
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	4		6		5		8		8

Perhaps the most infuriating player to own in 2001, Wilson built upon his successful 2000 second half by posting an 8.05 ERA and 1.74 WHIP during the first half of 2001, dooming many teams before the All-Star break. Once almost everyone gave up on him, he re-emerged as a potentially dynamic starter with a K/9 over 7.5 and a walk rate less than half that number. Someone needs to play an old All-Star game on television for Wilson on April 4th so that he believes that it's already the second half. You have to give this guy another chance simply because he offers so much potential when effective, although remain ready to cut bait should his ratios revert to their first half state of misery.

American League Starters will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Know the difference between gambling on potential and simply grabbing innings. Some pitchers on this list like Byrd and Halama offer little promise due to their age and past performance, while guys like Halladay and Wilson only need to find consistency before allowing their superior skills to carry them to high double-digit values. Massive inconsistency among starters is the reason that you need to allocate more money to pitching in traditional leagues that leave you stuck with horrible performers for most of the season. In leagues with easily-available replacements, you can then spend less money on established starters and instead focus on inexpensive and promising youngsters.