American League Starting Pitchers with Double-Digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Freddy Garcia		18	0	3.05	1.12		163	69	199	81	238.2
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	28		24		41		34		13
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	29		23		42		33		15

Garcia won the AL ERA title by dropping his walk rate almost in half, down to 1.9 BB/9 after the All-Star Break. Okay, I admit Safeco and a great defense helped him out, but he finally turned in a full season with a K:BB ratio over 2. The cautionary warning here is that he's compiled a huge amount of innings on his very young arm, leaving him a prime candidate for a breakdown like several other overworked Seattle pitchers. As he hasn't displayed this level of command prior to this year, and combined with the probable fall-off in run support and potential for injury, I'd have a very difficult time even saying "$20" when he comes up for bid.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Mussina		17	0	3.15	1.07		214	42	202	80	228.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	28		24		41		34		29
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	30		24		45		34		32

Anyone of these first five to seven pitchers would have been a more worthy Cy Young winner than Roger Clemens, but Mussina was our pick for presenting the best overall skill levels. He finished 2nd in ERA, 1st in WHIP, 2nd in strikeouts, 5th in K/9, 2nd in K:BB, 7th in OBA, 1st in OOBP, 5th in OSLG, tied for 2nd in shutouts, and even tied for second in quality starts. Mussina was also the only pitcher to record three of the top eight games of the year in the AL according to Bill James' Game Scores. All his skill ratios were around the best of his career, and with a revitalized Yankee offense ready to support him, I'll revisit a debate with an old friend by proclaiming: Mike Mussina is an ace, and he'll prove it to you by winning 20 in 2002.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mark Buehrle		16	0	3.29	1.07		126	48	188	81	221.1
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	26		22		38		32
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	26		21		38		30		Res

Avoid him in 2002 as he'll be overpriced and likely to break down. The White Sox, despite sending almost a full pitching staff to the DL in 2001, will continue to reap the rewards of overworking their young pitchers when Buehrle goes down for the year in June. Twenty-two-year-olds are not supposed to jump over fifty IP from one season to the next, and they certainly shouldn't be throwing 221 IP. At least Manuel kept his pitch count under 118 for the season, but the lack of trust in the Sox' bullpen kept Buehrle in games when he should have been pulled an inning or two earlier. He also strikes out a relatively few number of batters, leaving him at little risk to hurt you although also not helping you any in 5x5. Any bidders above $15 will likely be found mumbling quiet epithets into their leftover Yoo-Hoo when they see National Lampoon's Trip to Dr. Jobe, starring Mark Buehrle.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Joe Mays		17	0	3.16	1.15		123	64	205	82	233.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	26		22		38		31		Res
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	25		20		37		29		2

We drafted Mays at a buck in each of our AL keeper leagues last season after we noticed his second half ratios from 2000: 2.0 K:BB, 6.4 K/9, and 1.0 HR/9. Our gamble obviously left us with a fantastic keeper, leaving us with the June question: do we dump him to go for it or keep him since we can't acquire many better starters. We split our decision, dealing to improve our last place in saves and finishing second in one league while keeping him in the other. Now we're left with whether to keep him or deal him in the other league, and while we'd be happy with even 10 wins and a 4.00 ERA for a buck, we don't believe he will improve in 2002 so he'll likely be sent packing for more offensive depth.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mark Mulder		21	0	3.45	1.16		153	51	214	88	229.1
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	25		22		37		31		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	26		21		38		30		6

He's at almost as much risk of injury as Buehrle with a 75 IP jump to 229 IP on a young arm, a situation not helped by a 132-pitch start against Toronto in May. I think he'll continue to improve right until he lands on the DL for a few months, and if Oakland works him hard to compensate for their decrease in run production, he could be in trouble in 2002. I'm still fairly comfortable in spending more on him than Garcia or Buehrle as Oakland has a better medical reputation. Assume he'll earn $12 between ERA and WHIP, and add half of his projected wins to $12 for an estimate of his 2002 salary.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jamie Moyer		20	0	3.43	1.10		119	44	187	80	209.2
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	25		21		37		30		7
2001 Age: 39	5x5:	24		20		36		28		6

He only hit 100 pitches in about a third of his starts, thereby avoiding the normal increased risk of an IP bounce from 228 in 1999 to 154 in 2000 and 209 in 2001. The only real difference over the past four years is his increased run support in 2001 and increased walk rate in 2000, two specific statistic changes that skew his win and ERA/WHIP in those seasons. Moyer appears to be a very safe bet for 2002 at this time, although be ready to dump him the second you see him walk three or more batters in three or four of his last few starts. His success is completely tied to his command, and if his control goes, so will his qualitative numbers. Since we also have little faith in a strong Seattle follow-up on offense, his projections could drop from $15 to $5 in less than a month.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tim Hudson		18	0	3.37	1.22		181	71	216	88	235.0
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		20		33		28		23
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	24		20		36		29		24

He seems to have slipped under the media radar this off-season due to the overriding drama on the offensive side of the ball and the press accompanying Mark Mulder for his Cy Young-caliber year and Barry Zito for, well, being Barry Zito. Tim Hudson is the most likely person to challenge Mussina for the 2002 CY as he seems to have adapted to normal "ace" workload at an appropriate age and his skill ratios continue to roll along at an excellent level. If you can't afford Mussina, Hudson just might be worth those $30.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Roger Clemens		20	0	3.51	1.26		213	72	205	86	220.1
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		18		30		26		15
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	24		19		35		28		19

While not deserving of the Cy, Clemens still assembled a very impressive season on the strength of his best walk rate since 1997. Expect him to drop back to his 2000 value as he maintains consistency in almost every measure of skill. He might even win 20 again if the Yankees really have rediscovered the magic of OBP. Don't forget that he's still pushing 40 and an overpriced Media Darling, but Texas power pitchers have a way of pitching nearly forever so Clemens retains less risk than almost every other pitcher at his age. The Rocket might just win his 300th in the last week of the season.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Barry Zito		17	0	3.49	1.23		205	80	184	83	214.1
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	20		17		29		25		15
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	23		19		33		27		19

He pitched 193 IP at 22, jumped to 214 at 23 this season, and looks poised to hit 220 in 2002. Zito's K:BB was a solid 2.6 and he struck our almost a batter per inning. What do these numbers mean? He'll continue to pitch great right up until he loses a year or two to Tommy John surgery. He hasn't been worked quite as hard or at as young an age as someone like Matt Morris in 1996 and 1997, but Art Howe really needs to use Lidle and Hiljus to take the pressure off Zito. Lidle's a #3 or better on almost any other team, so if they alternate skipping Zito and Hiljus, they might avoid an injury and he'll be more rested for the playoffs. We'll keep him at $20 and hope for the best, although I doubt we'd go more than that if he was in the draft.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brad Radke		15	0	3.94	1.15		137	26	235	99	226.0
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	20		17		29		25		13
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	20		17		30		24		16

There's simply no way he can continue a walk rate of 1.0 BB/9, so his value will likely drop back into the mid-teens. If the Twins were actually smart enough to acquire some offense and not leadoff an OBP drain like Luis Rivas, he could maintain $20+ with a corresponding win increase. It's unfortunate that his likely peak season was overshadowed by the emergence of Joe Mays, but if Radke can somehow continue avoiding the DL after years of overwork, he might even qualify as a sleeper for 2002.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Aaron Sele		15	0	3.60	1.24		114	51	216	86	215.0
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		26		23		12
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	18		16		26		22		16

Sele lives on extremely good control while not overpowering anyone, although he has displayed strikeout ability in the past. He's likely in for a rude awakening as the move to Anaheim should bring a drop of about 5 wins due to the difference in offensive ability. I'll take the win drop if he can tack on a K/9 rise of about 3/9 back to his Texas days. While I wouldn't go above the teens, anything in the $13-19 range will add quality depth to your staff, and he likely won't be any worse than $13.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Cory Lidle		13	0	3.59	1.15		118	47	170	75	188.0
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		26		23		Res
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	18		15		26		22		Res

Perhaps our worst trade of last season was dealing a $5 Lidle in year 1 for an expiring Matt Lawton in a futile effort to finish in the money. When we continued to dump a month later in a search for quality keeper starters, Lidle sat there, unavailable and taunting us with every last dollar of profit. I frankly expected Oakland to deal him, but with his new, two-year deal at a very reasonable cost and the departures of Justin Miller and Mario Ramos, I'm going to be quite annoyed by him for the next two seasons. However, that annoyance doesn't mean that I won't be happy to spend $10+ on him in other AL leagues, as all he did in 2001 was pitch slightly worse than in 2000 over another 40 IP total while remaining in the majors almost the entire season. If you can grab him as your #3 or #4 instead of your #2 starter, you should be quite happy with your drafting skills.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Pedro Martinez		7	0	2.39	0.93		163	25	84	31	116.2
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	16		15		24		21		45
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	18		16		27		22		54

We expect 180 IP from him in 2002, though he may surprise everyone by somehow managing just over 200. More likely, he'll pitch a fantastic 100+ innings and then go down for a full season. Pedro could earn anywhere from $10-$60 PDV, but you're more likely to win if you spread out his probable $40 salary on two or three pitchers from today's reviews. There's no reason to expect anything but dominance from him when healthy, so your bid should be determined by how much faith you place in Spring Training reports from the notoriously secretive Boston medical staff.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Steve Sparks		14	0	3.65	1.33		116	64	244	94	232.0
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	16		14		23		20		Res
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	16		14		23		20		2

He actually earned as much in 2001 as his MLEs indicate he should have earned in 2000. Sparks' season may be the most impressive on this list as well as the most unlikely. With no strikeout ability and a questionable K:BB, you simply can't bid more than $5 on him. Fortunately, that may be enough to acquire this lottery ticket as many other owners remain either blissfully unaware of his success or rightfully wary of a repeat. Remember that the Tigers might lose 100 games, and don't overbid even if you're certain of a third consecutive quality season, as they may just decide he's more valuable in long relief.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Eric Milton		15	0	4.32	1.28		157	61	222	106	220.2
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	13		12		19		18		17
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	15		14		22		19		21

Both Mays and Radke overshadowed Milton, leaving him as greatly under-appreciated as Hudson out in Oakland. His strikeout rate looks ready to take off as he hit 7.5 K/9 in the second half and his K:BB has remained solid throughout the last three seasons. Concerns of an injury risk abate as he's not been terribly overworked, and Ron Gardenhire might even be nicer to his charges than Tom Kelly. If you can grab Hudson and Milton for under $50 combined, you're in great shape to win your league, especially if you include strikeouts. Regardless of your success at acquiring other players, cross your fingers and hope nobody else will be willing to top your $20 for Milton, but be willing to go a few bucks more if you think he'll truly break-out in 2002.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Andy Pettitte		15	0	3.99	1.32		164	41	224	89	200.2
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	13		12		18		17		13
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	15		14		22		19		12

Pettitte very quietly produced his best K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 rates since at least 1997. The wins don't show the improvement since his run support fell in 2001, but even a casual observer will recognize that his ERA and WHIP were correspondingly his best stats since '97. As he showed additional improvement in the second half, he appears poised for a breakout year at the appropriate age for a lefty starter. Don't stop bidding short of $20, although I might hold at $21 since he could always revert to his skill levels of the previous three seasons.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Weaver		13	0	4.08	1.32		152	68	235	104	229.1
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		12		18		17		17
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	15		13		21		19		21

Even if the Tigers wisely bring in a competent manager who won't continue to burn him out, there's no reason to own Weaver in 2002. Last season, he reached 100 pitches in all but 5 of his 33 starts. Combined with his motion and general temperament, he might as well make DL reservations for some time in the next season or two. His command and dominance are only average, and while he shows a minute amount of growth along with the potential to mature into a top-of-the-rotation starter, you're asking for trouble if you go over a few bucks with him this year. We apologize to Detroit fans in advance, as you're in for a long season with your only two decent starters likely losing much of their value and your offense already in tatters.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jarrod Washburn		11	0	3.77	1.29		126	54	196	81	193.1
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	12		12		18		17		8
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	14		13		20		18		6

Washburn appears ready to consistently rise above this level as his K:BB finished above 2 for the first time since his MLE stats from 1997. He'll never be a great strikeout pitcher, but with the Appier and Sele acquisitions, Washburn will face most teams #3 or #4 starters in 2002. Aside from Oakland and New York, no other team's pitching staff has quality this deep in the rotation. Washburn could see a sharp jump in his win total even if Anaheim can't find a way to improve their offense and his run support. I'd be comfortable bidding into the teens to acquire him, a gamble that should be enough to secure one of the most promising yet unheralded pitchers in baseball.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Joel Pineiro		6	0	2.03	0.94		56	21	50	17	75.1
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		11		15		15		Res
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	10		10		14		14		Res

Despite remaining in the minors until the Fourth of July, Pineiro immediately established himself as a potential star, compiling a half-season roto value superior to that of all but thirty-four other pitchers. I'm mildly concerned about Seattle's reported desire to keep him in the bullpen, but hopefully they'll realize that they need him in the rotation. He could reach $20 in value if he stays healthy, although I'd be concerned about potential abuse even if Piniella's done a good job of monitoring pitch counts over the last year or two. Aim for $10, and be willing to go another few bucks if you have faith in Seattle's offense.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bartolo Colon		14	0	4.09	1.39		201	90	220	101	222.1
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		15		15		27
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	14		13		21		19		31

While not a great pitcher, Colon has been a very good pitcher for over four full seasons. He'll likely rise in value in 2002 since even with a small drop in wins, his increased command should lead to a return to an ERA under 4 and a WHIP heading for 1.30. I'm happy with up to about $20, although I'd be hesitant to bid much more than that until we know the status of Cleveland's lineup. He'll certainly earn $30 sometime in the next few years, so your main concern should be owning him in the year in which you expect that break-out to occur.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
C.C. Sabathia		17	0	4.39	1.35		171	95	149	88	180.1
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	10		10		14		14		Res
2001 Age: 20	5x5:	13		12		19		17		Res

Cleveland left him out there for more than 120 pitches in three different starts, along with another four starts over 110. Developing power pitchers with control troubles will rack up too many pitches unless their managers are extremely careful, and the Indians show no capacity for that level of intelligence. Sabathia is extremely likely to break down sometime in the next couple of years based on his current workload, so I'd suggest the following course of action, whether you own him or are considering owning him. Keep him at his likely great salary or draft him at anything below $15. Watch him pile up a month or two of great strikeout numbers, solid ERA/WHIP, and a few wins. Then trade him sometime between May 15th and June 15th to any rebuilding team for a young keeper on offense. You'll likely receive the best part of his season and won't have to worry about future injury problems until at least 2003.

Early conclusions: The American League saw several fantastic pitching performances although no truly historic ones like the NL. Strikeouts also seem to be in short supply among many of these pitchers, so try to grab the guys with higher K/9 levels that also show more potential. Many of these pitchers are only beginning likely impressive careers, so they should remain on this list for much of the next decade, although I'd be quite concerned about potential injuries for several of them.
American League Starters will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Make every effort to own two or more of: Mike Mussina, Tim Hudson, Brad Radke, Cory Lidle, and Eric Milton, and strongly consider Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Jarrod Washburn, and Joel Pineiro. You can likely acquire Lidle, Washburn, and Pineiro cheaply in many leagues, so you may want to just target these three pitchers and then one of the bigger guns.