by Tim Polko
I'm adopting a new format for pitcher prospects and suspects as there's only so many ways that
I can say "he's pitching nicely in AAA, but I'm not sure how much success he'll have in the
majors". To let you use this list as a reference, I'll give you basic information about each
pitcher and then discuss both his potential for 2002 and the future and his roto potential in
2002 and the future. I'm not focusing on what each pitcher throws as good coaching can always
expand a pitchers' repertoire; my goal is to evaluate pitchers on their actual performance to
whatever extent possible.
So everyone will have a better idea of how I rate each pitcher, I'm going to describe my
preferred pitching staff. While I definitely don't subscribe to the LaRussian School of
Bullpen Management, I also recognize that placing each pitcher in an appropriate role lends
stability and authority to your team. If at all possible, I'd like a nearly even split
between lefties and righties to use platoon advantages when available, and since many clubs
are much stronger against either lefties or righties, a strong rotation will have at least
two of each.
Obviously I'd like all #1 starters and closers, but I'm trying to evaluate these prospects
for a role on a perfectly average team. The projected role will be the one that they would
occupy that would leave them above replacement level at that particular position.
Here are more specific descriptions of each role:
#1 Starter (#1)
For an ace, I'm looking for someone to consistently hit all the magic numbers: over a
strikeout per inning, three strikeouts for every walk, less than a hit per inning, and less
than a home run every complete game. I'll never recommend a starting job for someone who
relieves exclusively, so I'd also like a pitcher who either has demonstrated extended stamina
or definitely shows good potential for a yearly 200+ IP. This guy is who a team wants
starting three games in the World Series, and only the best prospects can be projected to
"ace" status.
#2 Starter (#2)
My #2 should be almost as good as my ace, but should preferably pitch with the other hand to
allow flexibility against better clubs and in the playoffs. The #2 can also have one
particular problem in their stats such as a lower K:BB ratio or perhaps allowing over a HR/9.
There's little wrong with projecting someone to a #2, and it can often just be a fallback
position for those lacking the confidence of an ace.
#3 Starter (#3)
Projecting someone to a #3 will likely entail a couple problems in their minor league
history. Perhaps they have great command and dominance but remain very hittable. A problem
like that could leave them as a AAAA pitcher unable to stay in the majors, but hopefully I
can remain more optimistic about most of these prospects. The #3 will likely either have had
noticeable injury troubles or has problems with two of the four main statistics.
#4 Starter (#4)
My #4 is someone who I can believe can be a capable starter but has a major problem with
their skills. Perhaps they've never even managed a 2 K:BB ratio but consistently toss a
strikeout an inning. More likely, they'll be unable to consistently pitch near their
potential. I'd usually like to break in my youngest future top-3 starter as a #4 instead of
a #5 when they reach the majors to insure they receive a start every time through the order.
Since most prospects will fall into this "younger" category, the ones stuck at #4 will more
likely have skill problems.
#5 Starter (#5) and
Long reliever (LR)
I'm a firm believer in the knuckleball, especially with regards to its effectiveness at
reducing arm stress. Employing an experienced knuckleballer to teach the pitch to a few
rookies in each class would give a team tremendous flexibility in the upper levels since
they'll always have an available "mop-up" man. While few true knucleballers exist in the
minors, due to their relative inconsistency, they'd likely be stuck in either of these roles
in the majors.
Another strategy is to break in the youngest prospects here to reduce their workloads by
alternating starts, leaving each available to actually pitch out of the bullpen on their days
to throw in between starts. The Braves have used this strategy in the playoffs when they
haven't trusted their relievers. I'd also be interested in employing one lefty and one
righty to maximize match-ups throughout the year.
For ranking purposes, the fifth starter will be someone capable of racking up numerous IP
without much consistent effectiveness, and the long reliever will be a pitcher who shows
enough to warrant a look in the majors without currently projecting to a stable role.
Lefty Specialist (LS)
Now, I of course agree that a club's second lefty reliever should be able to also get
right-handed batters out. However, dozens of pitchers bounce between the majors and AAA
who really can only consistently set down lefties, and these pitchers certainly have their
uses, especially with September Roster Expansion. A prospect will fall into a specialist
ranking if they appear to have some talent but zero consistency.
RH Middle Reliever (RHMR)
RH middle relievers are the bread-and-butter of every major league staff. This is where a
team's baseline prospects wind up who deserve to pitch in the majors but can't be trusted
with a more important role. I'm focused on guys who stay right in the 5-7 K/9 range with
around 2 K:BB at AAA. Many great AA and even AAA pitchers wind up here because an
organization's top bullpen anchors usually develop from failed starters.
LH Middle Reliever (LHMR)
He's just like the RHMR except he pitches with his other hand. This guy should be able to
enter the game at any time between the fourth and eighth innings and pitch to between one
and nine batters, and the better he can perform against top lefties, the more valuable he
becomes to the team.
Set-up Man (Setup)
The set-up role is for the reliever almost good enough to close but lacking some key
element. Pitchers with high homer rates or hit rates will land here if they can't fix
their weaknesses. I also might project some starters with either weak stamina or
borderline command to close if they show solid strikeout potential.
Closer (Closer)
For a closer, I'm looking for the best pitcher on the team who doesn't have the ability to
start. If he can't pitch two innings twice a weak along with another few single inning
appearances, I'll find someone with more stamina. While I'm comfortable using a closer as
a one inning pitcher, I need the flexibility to air him out in important games and playoffs
as the situation demands.
Hopefully these descriptions will help in understanding my analysis. These shorter blurbs
should also focus more clearly on the best prospects, although I'm only reviewing those
players in the upper minors who displayed pitching competency in 2001, along with a few
others that didn't pitch at all due to injury.
The fantasy reviews are perhaps the more important part, as I'll list how you should treat
each player this season under "2002 Fantasy Potential" and predict their future capabilities
in the last line. If I designate a player as have no(ne) 2002 or long-term potential, that
indicates that I don't foresee that player with either PDV this season or anytime in the
future. No 2002 potential also indicates that he's not worth a minor league draft pick or
Ultra selection.
As pitchers are notoriously difficult to predict even with established track records in the
majors, I'm hedging my bets by stating that their long-term potential and ETA are strictly
tied to an opportunity in their "appropriate 2002 role". If a great starting prospect gets
moved to the bullpen due to some shortsighted manager, he still could reach his predicted
upside, but now his ETA is pushed back by a year or two. Please remember that these are
"upside" predictions, indicative of the largest role and greatest level of success to which
I believe a prospect will ascend.
I'm also not taking into account teams' current plans for players since prospects need to be
rated on "best available" status, meaning that their ability to reach an upside is conditional
upon favorable circumstances aiding in the progression towards that goal. Simply, John
Smoltz's three-year deal, even if he stays healthy, does not preclude predictions of "closer"
for a half dozen Braves' prospects by mid-2003.
By labeling someone as an "injury replacement", I'm implying that they would be good filler
if needed but there's no need to rush to acquire them. "Injury replacement" also assumes
that they receive a call-up, and any further modifiers list the conditions that should be
met before employing a player. The AAAA designation indicates that the player's likely
good enough for the majors but should probably spend much of his time in the minors due to
a specific weakness, such as a weak track record, too many hits, etc.
I hope you enjoy these reviews. Please feel free to e-mail me with any questions. I'm
covering NL pitchers this weekend and AL pitchers in two weeks after I finish with everyone
who pitched in the American League in 2001.
Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the National League East
Atlanta Braves
Minor League Free Agents:
Brad Clontz, 30, P:R, B:R.
35:15 K:BB in 34.1 IP with 45 H and 8 HR between AAA Colorado Springs and A+ Myrtle Beach.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Mid-season call-up as an injury replacement for RHMR.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR as soon as April if he pitches extremely well in Spring Training.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Injury replacement if good command in majors.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 at best if ever given another 40-50 IP of work.
Chris Cumberland, 28, P:L, B:R.
95:47 K:BB in 141.2 IP with 149 H and 6 HR between AAA Richmond and AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter
Long-term Upside & ETA: Long relief by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004 with good performance in 2002 at AAA.
Chris Hammond, 35, P:L, B:L.
83:35 K:BB in 89 IP with 85 H and 5 HR between AAA Buffalo and AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #5 starter with some luck late this season.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Alex Lontayo, 25, P:L, B:L.
85:53 K:BB in 100.2 IP with 115 H and 6 HR between AA Greenville and A+ Myrtle Beach.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Delvis Pacheco, 23, P:R, B:R.
58:26 K:BB in 68 IP with 82 H and 4 HR between A+ Myrtle Beach and AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Injury replacement by 2004 if you can stand the WHIP hit.
Jake Robbins, 25, P:R, B:R.
53:51 K:BB in 78.1 IP with 73 H and 1 HR at AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Aaron Small, 29, P:R, B:R.
66:32 K:BB in 101.2 IP with 105 H and 15 HR between AAA Salt Lake and AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: Injury replacement this season, if his HR rate stays relatively low.
Dave Stevens, 31, P:R, B:R.
55:37 K:BB in 70.1 IP with 71 H and 15 HR between AAA Richmond and AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA relief.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Ismael Villegas, 24, P:R, B:R.
100:39 K:BB in 134.1 IP with 128 H and 21 HR at AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: #5 starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Injury replacement with reduction in HR rate.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2004, if he's developed as a starter by some smart organization.
Prospects:
Ray Beasley, 24, P:L, B:R.
37:22 K:BB in 55 IP with 58 H and 4 HR at AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004 as LHMR, if his strikeout rate edges up.
Joey Dawley, 29, P:R, B:R.
151:47 K:BB in 143.2 IP with 102 H and 16 HR between A+ Myrtle Beach, AAA Richmond, and AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2004.
Derrick Lewis, 25, P:R, B:R.
50:37 K:BB in 60.2 IP with 50 H and 2 HR at AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Matt McClendon, 23, P:R, B:R.
65:56 K:BB in 73 IP with 70 H and 6 HR between AAA Richmond, AA Greenville, R Braves, and A+ Myrtle Beach.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Set-up by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2006.
Billy Sylvester, 24, P:R, B:R.
82:51 K:BB in 67.1 IP with 46 H and 5 HR between AA Greenville and AAA Richmond.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Set-up by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Injury replacement if solid command at AAA.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2006.
Winston Abreu, 24, P:R, B:R.
93:45 K:BB in 73.2 IP with 56 H and 9 HR at AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA closer.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Set-up by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: $2 FAAB if good AAA numbers.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2005.
John Foster, 23, P:L, B:L.
63:33 K:BB in 68.2 IP with 71 H and 6 HR at AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA/AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Nathan Kent, 22, P:R, B:R.
111:38 K:BB in 154.2 IP with 186 H and 12 HR at AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.
Garrett Lee, 24, P:R, B:R.
63:17 K:BB in 92 IP with 103 H and 12 HR at AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Injury replacement if low AAA hit rate.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Christian Parra, 23, P:R, B:R.
82:56 K:BB in 89.1 IP with 87 H and 9 HR at AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2005 if stamina improves; RHMR by 2004 if it doesn't.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Mike Saipe, 27, P:R, B:R.
36:13 K:BB in 49 IP with 43 H and 2 HR at AA Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Kazuhiro Takeoka, 26, P:R, B:R.
46:21 K:BB in 74 IP with 76 H and 2 HR at Greenville.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $1 by 2005.
Florida Marlins
Minor League Free Agents:
Pat Ahearne, 31, P:R, B:R.
80:35 K:BB in 144.2 IP with 212 H and 14 HR at AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Long reliever if he ever catches some GM's eye.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Mike Drumright, 27, P:R, B:L.
124:51 K:BB in 133.1 IP with 130 H and 14 HR between AA Portland and AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA swingman by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Brian Edmondson, 28, P:R, B:R.
57:24 K:BB in 81.2 IP with 82 H and 10 HR between A+ Brevard County, AA Portland, and AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA/AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA reliever in 2002.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Hector Henriquez, 22, P:L, B:L.
8:33 K:BB in 39.1 IP with 36 H and 2 HR at A+ Brevard County.
Appropriate 2002 Role: A+ reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA reliever by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Tim McClaskey, 25, P:R, B:R.
93:18 K:BB in 81 IP with 59 H and 5 HR between A+ Brevard County and AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Gabe Molina, 26, P:R, B:R.
105:39 K:BB in 107 IP with 126 H and 14 HR at AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 5th starter by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Eddy Reyes, 25, P:R, B:R.
37:37 K:BB in 58 IP with 58 H and 3 HR.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA reliever by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Joe Roa, 29, P:R, B:R.
107:15 K:BB in 160 IP with 170 H and 18 HR between AA Portland and AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 5th starter, if he can impress some manager while in relief.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Injury replacement, if he makes a roster and doesn't start allowing bushelfuls of hits.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 within the next few years, if he starts.
Aaron Scheffer, 25, P:R, B:L.
43:10 K:BB in 40.1 IP with 17 H and 2 HR between A+ Brevard County and AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Prospects:
Oswaldo Mairena, 25, P:L, B:L.
71:21 K:BB in 73.2 IP with 79 H and 7 HR between AA Portland and AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Mark Roberts, 25, P:R, B:R.
35:15 K:BB in 36 IP with 47 H and 5 HR at AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Bobby Rodgers, 26, P:R, B:R.
67:31 K:BB in 77.1 IP with 65 H and 11 HR between AA Portland and AAA Calgary.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Nate Bump, 24, P:R, B:R.
41:10 K:BB in 54.2 IP with 55 H and 10 HR at AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Geoff Goetz, 22, P:L, B:L.
24:12 K:BB in 29.1 IP with 22 H and 2 HR at AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.
Scott Henderson, 26, P:R, B:R.
55:23 K:BB in 56.2 IP with 52 H and 9 HR at AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2007.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2007.
Hansel Izquierdo, 24, P:R, B:R.
109:29 K:BB in 131 IP with 87 H and 14 HR between A Kane County, A+ Brevard County, and AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.
Ryan Moskau, 23, P:L, B:R.
78:29 K:BB in 103.1 IP with 103 H and 12 HR at AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Lefty specialist by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Michael Tejera, 24, P:L, B:L.
131:41 K:BB in 141 IP with 143 H and 17 HR at AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Low draft pick if you're willing to wait until the middle of 2003.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2006.
Claudio Vargas, 22, P:R, B:R.
151:67 K:BB in 159 IP with 122 H and 25 HR at AA Portland.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2005, if he can keep the home runs down.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.
Montreal Expos
Minor League Free Agents:
Bobby Munoz and Anthony Telford were reviewed with National League Relievers.
Tommy Darrell, 24, P:R, B:R.
31:35 K:BB in 55.2 IP with 59 H and 4 HR between A+ Jupiter and AA Harrisburg.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA reliever by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Robert Marquez, 28, P:R, B:R.
27:12 K:BB in 60.2 IP with 57 H and 5 HR at AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR if he ever impresses a manager in Spring Training.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 if that manager stays impressed for a few months.
Scott Mitchell, 28, P:R, B:R.
24:16 K:BB in 41.1 IP with 41 H and 5 HR between AAA Ottawa and AA Harrisburg.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Prospects:
Brandon Agamennone, 25, P:R, B:R.
58:26 K:BB in 72.1 IP with 65 H and 10 HR between AAA Ottawa and AA Harrisburg.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Brent Billingsley, 26, P:L, B:L.
99:36 K:BB in 115.1 IP with 134 H and 20 HR.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever if he's smart.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Donnie Bridges, 22, P:R, B:R.
74:64 K:BB in 81.1 IP with 83 H and 13 HR between R Expos, A+ Jupiter, AA Harrisburg, and AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Closer by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Low pick in the deepest of leagues.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2006.
Zach Day, 23, P:R, B:R.
113:54 K:BB in 169.1 IP with 164 H and 10 HR between AA Akron, AAA Buffalo, and AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-level pick in deep leagues.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2004.
Keith Evans, 25, P:R, B:R.
72:13 K:BB in 83.2 IP with 94 H and 7 HR at AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Set-up by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: $1 on draft day, if he makes the team.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.
Julio Manon, 28, P:R, B:L.
111:50 K:BB in 136 IP with 121 H and 17 HR between AA Harrisburg and AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Ted Rose, 27, P:R, B:L.
98:35 K:BB in 120.2 IP with 125 H and 9 HR at AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Reserve pick on draft day, if he makes the team.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Jim Serrano, 25, P:R, B:R.
84:30 K:BB in 61.2 IP with 41 H and 4 HR between AA Harrisburg and AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA closer.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Set-up by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Late-season injury replacement.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.
Sean Spencer, 26, P:L, B:L.
59:27 K:BB in 64.1 IP with 53 H and 4 HR at AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Lefty specialist.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Reserve pick on draft day, if he makes the team.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
T.J. Tucker, 22, P:R, B:R.
120:70 K:BB in 166 IP with 145 H and 21 HR between AA Harrisburg and AAA Ottawa.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Late-season injury replacement if solid command in AAA.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2004.
Jack Chapman, 27, P:L, B:R.
69:27 K:BB in 67.2 IP with 55 H and 5 HR at AA Harrisburg.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Late-season injury replacement if solid command in AAA.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Ron Chiavacci, 23, P:R, B:R.
161:76 K:BB in 147.1 IP with 137 H and 12 HR at AA Harrisburg.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-level draft pick in any league with three or more minor league rounds.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2005.
Justin Wayne, 22, P:R, B:R.
105:43 K:BB in 134.1 IP with 118 H and 4 HR between A+ Jupiter and AA Harrisburg.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-level draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2005.
New York Mets
Minor League Free Agents:
Brett Hinchliffe was reviewed with National League Starters, and Pete Walker was reviewed with National League Relievers.
Manny Barrios, 26, P:R, B:R.
3:5 K:BB in 6 IP with 6 H and 1 HR at AA Binghamton.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Rick Croushore, 30, P:R, B:R.
15:5 K:BB in 16.1 IP with 9 H and 1 HR between A+ St. Lucie and AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Long relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Brett Herbison, 24, P:R, B:R.
13:10 K:BB in 21 IP with 26 H and 1 HR between A- Brooklyn and A Capital City.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA reliever by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Pedro Hernandez, ??, ???, ???.
I can't find any Pedro Hernandez in the last few seasons other than this stat line from this summer's Universad team in the Dominican. While I don't know if this is the correct player, at least you get to see stats for one Pedro Hernandez.
P:R; 21:9 K:BB in 25 IP with 25 H and 0 HR for Universad.
Appropriate 2002 Role: A- Reliever,
Long-term Upside & ETA: A+ Reliever by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Bobby M. Jones, 29, P:L, B:R.
15:4 K:BB in 16.2 IP with 6 H and 0 HR between A+ St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Kyle Kessel, 25, P:L, B:R.
70:52 K:BB in 107.1 IP with 151 H and 14 HR between AA Round Rock, AAA New Orleans, and AA Binghamton.
Appropriate 2002 Role: A+ reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA reliever.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Ivan Montane, 28, P:R, B:R.
58:34 K:BB in 70.1 IP with 71 H and 5 HR.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA/AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA relief by the end of the season.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Jose Romero, ??, ???, ???.
Like Hernandez, I can find no record for Romero other than a Universad appearance in 2001.
P:R; 28:12 K:BB in 36 IP with 34 H and 0 HR.
Appropriate 2002 Role: A- Reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: A+ Reliever by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Prospects:
Jaime Cerda, 22, P:L, B:L.
82:20 K:BB in 80.2 IP with 59 H and 4 HR between A+ St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Late-season injury replacement.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Oscar Henriquez, 27, P:R, B:R.
44:19 K:BB in 36.1 IP with 30 H and 1 HR at AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: RHMR.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by the end of 2002.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-season injury replacement.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Doug Linton, 36, B:R, B:R.
67:10 K:BB in 75.2 IP with 74 H and 8 HR at AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 5th starter by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-season injury replacement
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Jae Weong Seo, 24, P:R, B:R.
81:29 K:BB in 133 IP with 118 H and 9 HR between A+ St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: 4th starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Low draft pick in deep leagues.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.
Billy Traber, 21, P:L, B:L.
135:36 K:BB in 151.1 IP with 140 H and 6 HR between A+ St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Low draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2005.
Tyler Walker, 25, P:R, B:R.
59:24 K:BB in 78.1 IP with 62 H and 8 HR between A+ St. Lucie, AA Binghamton, and AAA Norfolk.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.
Adam Walker, 25, P:L, B:L.
88:30 K:BB in 95 IP with 53 H and 2 HR between AA Reading and AA Binghamton.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Low FAAB grab whenever he makes the majors.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2005.
Philadelphia Phillies
Minor League Free Agents:
Felipe Lira and Eddie Oropesa were reviewed with National League Relievers.
Rigo Beltran, 31, P:L, B:L.
113:41 K:BB in 115.2 IP with 87 H and 10 HR at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Early season injury replacement.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Jason Boyd, 28, P:R, B:R.
66:22 K:BB in 59.1 IP with 44 H and 4 HR at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-season injury replacement.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Jason Brester, 24, P:L, B:L.
Did not pitch in 2001.
74:89 K:BB in 116 IP with 107 H at 2000 AA Reading.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.
Blas Cedeno, 28, P:R, B:R.
62:26 K:BB in 70.2 IP with 68 H and 10 HR between AA Reading and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Late-season injury replacement.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Jason Kershner, 24, P:L, B:L.
77:29 K:BB in 138.2 IP with 159 H and 21 HR between AA Reading and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Lefty specialist by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Andrew Lorraine, 28, P:L, B:L.
101:36 K:BB in 150 IP with 209 H and 19 HR at AAA Calgary.
He's likely the only ballplayer that certainly deserves the nickname "Quiche".
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Long relief whenever he impresses a manager.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Clint Sodowsky, 28, P:R, B:L.
8:3 K:BB in 7 IP with 8 H and 0 HR at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA relief.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA relief by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.
Prospects:
Geoff Geary, 24, P:R, T:R.
109:27 K:BB in 134.1 IP with 136 H and 16 HR between AA Reading and AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2005.
Tom Jacquez, 25, P:L, B:L.
86:29 K:BB in 109.1 IP with 100 H and 8 HR at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Claimed off waivers by the White Sox a day or two ago.
Appropriate 2002 Role: Lefty specialist.
Long-term Upside & ETA: LHMR by 2003.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Injury replacement if good K/9 in majors.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2003.
Evan Thomas, 27, P:R, B:R.
74:36 K:BB in 104 IP with 123 H and 14 HR at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #5 starter by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2004.
Pete Zamora, 25, P:L, B:L.
79:41 K:BB in 89 IP with 64 H and 7 HR at AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAAA Swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Lefty specialist by 2004.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2005.
Cary Hiles, 25, P:R, B:R.
62:21 K:BB in 81.1 IP with 60 H and 6 HR at AA Reading.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: RHMR by 2006.
2002 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2006.
Brett Myers, 20, P:R, B:R.
130:43 K:BB in 156 IP with 156 H and 21 HR at AA Reading.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Late round draft pick in deep leagues.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2005.
Franklin Nunez, 24, P:R, B:R.
112:51 K:BB in 110 IP with 107 H and 9 HR at AA Reading.
Appropriate 2002 Role: AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2005.
2002 Fantasy Potential: Mid-round draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2005.
We'll review minor league free agents and AAA/AA prospects from the National League
Central tomorrow.
Today's Fantasy Rx: Ron Chiavacci, Justin Wayne, Billy Traber, Adam Walker,
and Franklin Nunez have the most upside in this crop, while someone like Donnie Bridges
seems more likely to turn into a solid short reliever than to ever excel at starting.
I'm not sure I'd want to draft any of these guys until they see more AAA time, but none
of them should be particularly bad picks in deep leagues. Make sure to check their
injury status before your draft, as drafting rookie pitchers is already tremendously
risky without accidentally grabbing an injured prospect.
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here to read the previous article.