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January 16th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko National League Relief Pitchers with $-3 and $-4 PDV
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
We heard about the Fyhrie trade on the way back from a draft last spring and were figuring it was likely a good deal, until we heard that the Cubs gave up a minor leaguer. When we found it was Jose Nieves, we were rather amazed that the Cubs could make such a good trade. Fyhrie pitched reasonably well in his limited work, and if it wasn't for the fluke accident of a thrown flying bat breaking his arm, his contributions might have prevented the Quevedo trade. Given his history, his success in 2000 looks more like an aberration than the start of a new trend since that was a peak strikeout rate for him. He might have some success in the A's bullpen in 2002, but you should probably wait until he demonstrates some skill next season before acquiring him.
Karnuth didn't impress after a move to the bullpen in AAA last season. He couldn't even manage a 2 K:BB ratio at AAA, and he barely struck out a batter every two innings. While he might have some long-term potential if he improve his command, he likely won't help you in 2002.
Belitz was the third player acquired from the Athletics for Jermaine Dye, and he shows immediate potential to step into the Rockies' bullpen. He struck out almost a batter per inning in AAA while walking less than a third as many, and he neither allowed an overt number of home runs nor hits. Of course, just because he's going to pitch decently in Coors doesn't make him draft-worthy, but he'd be an interesting pick-up in another park that didn't conspire with your pitchers to send your team ERA into double-digits.
Silva missed a chance to close in Pittsburgh due to a broken bone but continued to demonstrate the solid command that has kept him in the majors for much of the last several seasons. He'll likely never dominate hitters like the best relievers, but he'd be a valuable addition to most any bullpen in major league or fantasy baseball. You might want to make sure that his home run rate heads back down towards 1/9 IP before you acquire him, and also remember that he's likely to spend some time on the DL.
Fernandez suffers from the almost league-wide bias against knuckleballers, despite demonstrating greatly improved command over the last year or two. He's still a few years away from the normal peak years of most knuckleballers, so now would be a great time for a smart franchise to grab him as their fifth starter and long reliever for the next few seasons. You'll likely want to wait to draft him until some team shows a commitment as guys like Fernandez often find themselves looking for major league work after their first rough outing.
Koplove emerged as an interesting late-inning option for the Diamondbacks near the end of the season as he continued to whiff over a batter an inning in the majors as he had in the minors. He had some command problems, which kept Brenly from relying on him towards the end of the year, but he certainly has the stuff necessary to earn a place in middle relief for 2002. I'm not sure that I'd pick him up before he shows that he won't walk quite so many batters next season, but if you're interested in a dark horse candidate for 2002 saves after Kim, Mantei, and Prinz, Koplove could emerge if injury afflicts the rest of the bullpen.
While Johnson's minor league numbers impress with both good dominance and command, his 218 IP in the majors have left him without much credibility at the highest level. As long as he continues to post solid minor league seasons, he'll receive more chances in the majors although I'd certainly wait for him to demonstrate that same competence in the majors before acquiring him. He's young enough where he could still have a good career, even if he was rushed to the majors at a rather young age in 1997.
De los Santos was hyped by several touts as a potential closer candidate in Milwaukee after a rather impressive 2000 season in which he struck out almost a batter an inning while walking less than half as many. He promptly went down with arm troubles after only one inning of work. If he can come back, he'll give the Brewers a second competent lefty in the pen with Ray King, but please don't make the same mistake about his potential as last season. De los Santos will not get an opportunity to close, because he's a lefty who doesn't strike out a ridiculous number of batters. Billy Wagner is the only projected dominant lefty closer for next season, and Eddie Guardado will be lucky to grab a dozen saves. No other lefty is likely to receive even the opportunity to close a half-dozen games, so don't consider de los Santos as anything other than a solid lefty reliever when healthy.
Atlanta promoted Sobkowiak after an extremely unimpressive AA season in which he posted a 48:40 K:BB ratio in 65 IP. These numbers are rather poor for any level, leaving Sobkowiak as likely another year or two away from the beginning of any potential long-term major league success. With his past arm troubles and the other pitching extant in the Braves' system, don't be surprised if he's packaged for bench help in the middle of the season.
We knew Williamson was suffering from overwork from his rookie season, so this breakdown should really surprise no one except pitch count ignorant executives on the Reds' payroll. His 2000 numbers weren't even that impressive as he walks too many batters, so only gamble a buck or two on Williamson with any eye on him closing in 2003. Cincinnati will be looking for a replacement for the ever-more-expensive Danny Graves, and Williamson would fit much better as a closer than in a starting rotation growing in both skill and depth. Here's a trade that makes too much sense for everyone to approve, involving the Dodgers, Reds, and Red Sox. Eric Gagne to the Reds to give them a high-upside innings' eater for the #2 slot, Danny Graves and perhaps Alex Cora to the Red Sox to give them a cheaper closer and solid backup defensive SS, and Ugueth Urbina to the Dodgers to give them a closer. The Dodgers have Cesar Izturis and potentially Pokey Reese to cover SS and already can't find room for Odalis Perez in the rotation, the Reds can use Graves' salary to pay for the superior Jeff Shaw for a year or two until Williamson is recovered, and the Red Sox acquire a decent, young, and healthy closer to replace their somewhat overpaid and occasionally injury-prone UUU. This proposal keeps Jeff Shaw in baseball, fixes the main Dodgers' bullpen question with a more proven reliever than someone like Bobby Howry and dumps an over-rated offensive nightmare, and gives the Red Sox more youth and depth, so of course no one would ever agree to it.
He seems like the son of J.P. Morgan since he's been around seemingly forever as Morgan is one of the few players to begin his career before the advent of fantasy baseball. His walk rate has been ascending steadily for the last four years, leaving his command in question and his usefulness debatable. He might have some mysterious utility to Arizona, but I see no reason to draft him for your team.
Springer is one of the most inconsistent pitchers in baseball, following up fantastic years in 1997 and 1999 with command problems in both of the subsequent seasons. Due to injury, he didn't see enough time in 2001 to do much besides allow 5 homers in 17.2 IP. While he certainly has the potential to be a very effective fantasy middle reliever, you need to wait until he shows some skill in 2002 before FAABing him.
I love his name but don't think much of his 2002 potential as he's suffered from command problems during his brief major league appearances. Cubillan skipped AA, and even though he pitched exceptionally well in 2000, neither Toronto nor Texas gave him a shot as a middle reliever. His control disappeared for much of 2001 as his walk rate shot up rather suddenly, leaving his immediate prospects rather low. He certainly has the skills necessary to succeed at a very high level in the majors, but don't acquire him until he shows that his command has returned to his repetoire.
Oropesa finally saw the majors after almost a decade bouncing around the minors, although he pitched quite poorly upon his promotion. He has the dominance to succeed but seems to lack any semblance of command, posting high walk rates at almost every level in the minors. I just don't think he has the ability to see much success in AAA, forget about finding much in the majors.
Lundquist actually pitched fairly well despite a high ERA, only allowing 1 homer in almost 20 IP as he demonstrated both solid dominance and command. His 2001 statistics at AAA Portland support this growth as he compiled a 67:20 K:BB ratio in 63.2 IP while only allowing 6 HR and 59 hits. He is ready to contribute to the Padres' bullpen as at least a stopgap righty middle reliever until Tom Davey is recovered from arm problems, although I wouldn't use Lundquist as anything more than an injury replacement for my team.
Eischen continues to post excellent minor league numbers, including a 54:11 K:BB ratio in 52.1 IP at AAA Ottawa in 2001, without finding corresponding major league success. He didn't pitch too well in Montreal as shown by the above statistics, although he certainly seems to have the skills to regularly turn minor league hitters into whiffing fools. He's not good fantasy-roster material, but Eischen should find 2002 success if they're willing to keep him as either a third lefty, or if Montreal actually makes an intelligent trade by dumping Graeme Lloyd's rather expensive salary on a team better able to shell out $3M for a middle reliever.
In his third significant major league trial, Myers continued to show no ability to regularly set down major league hitters. He just doesn't have the skills necessary for big league success, and neither the Padres nor you should waste much more time on this guy. There's no reason for him to be pitching above the AAA level when he's had this little success in the majors, and although he does have some talent that could be honed by the right pitching coach, no organization will likely expend that effort on a 33-year-old middle reliever.
Tabaka didn't receive enough of a chance to determine whether or not his rather solid AAA ratios would have appropriately translated to the majors. As a journeyman lefty reliever, he'll certainly receive another year or two of opportunity, although he's probably too old to contribute to most rosters. He's simply too likely to lose his roster spot to risk a roto pick-up even if he was pitching at a high level of skill.
Ruffin's continued relegation to the minors in favor of lesser relievers is yet another strong point in favor of major league expansion over contraction. His minor league numbers were astounding at one of the best hitters' park in the minors at AAA Calgary in 2001: 47:10 K:BB ratio in 33 IP with 37 hits and only one lonely home run. He's been a little wild in his almost 200 major league IP spread out over the last nine years, although there's no reason to believe that he hasn't significantly improved since his last extended look in 1996. By signing with Kansas City, Ruffin should emerge as a primary force in a relatively weak bullpen as very few other pitchers on the Royals can even approach striking out a batter per inning in the minors, and certainly can't turn the same trick in Kauffman Stadium.
You're probably aware of Chouinard's problems with the law and his family, so you already know that he doesn't belong in any healthy clubhouse. There's no reason for him not to find success in the majors if he can stay in shape while spending part of the winter in jail, nevertheless you simply can't own this guy, especially if he'll still be in Colorado.
Bones has only posted an acceptable K:BB ratio in one of his eleven major league seasons. Since he didn't perform that well in 2001, there's no reason to acquire him even if he makes a club out of spring training. He's far more likely to have an ERA over 5 than below 5 at this point, leaving him unworthy of a spot on any fantasy team.
Atchley didn't pitch much in 2001 due to arm problems but definitely has some potential if he can remain healthy. He's posted very good command ratios for his entire minor league career and even shows good dominance when he's not given too much work. He seems somewhat fragile as he missed the entire 1998 season as well as part of 2001. He also allows too many hits. While he should be a decent lefty option for a few years for Cincy, I don't see him worth a roster spot on your team even if he remains healthy in 2002.
Beimel looks completely unprepared for the majors, an unsurprising development considering that he skipped AAA in 2001. A closer look reveals that he pitched much better in the bullpen, posting a 32:14 K:BB ratio in 44 IP while only allowing 40 hits and 2 homers. He definitely seems competent to succeed as a second lefty behind Marte if they can find someone to take the too expensive and mostly ineffective Scott Sauerbeck in trade. I'm not prepared to add him to my roster, but if the Pirates will just leave him in relief, he should have a few years of success, and then they could consider starting him once his arm is more developed.
Ignore everything that Baseball America and other scouts tell you about the Giants. A quick look that the numbers will show that Ainsworth has succeeded in AAA at a level that Jerome Williams hasn't managed even at AA. Ryan Jensen is also more prepared for the majors at this point, and since you want people that can contribute to your roster in 2002, remember Ainsworth and Jensen. They both belong in the starting rotation over Livan Hernandez or Kurt Rueter, and there's really no place for either of them in the bullpen. They're Spring Training dogfight should be one of the most interesting in the majors, and only the long-expected breakdown of Livan will insure they both receive the necessary opportunity. Ainsworth should find immediate success and could even win 10 or more games if given the opportunity. While you don't want to hit double-digits on someone likely to be overworked at a young age, he should be on your very short list of rookie pitchers worth a high single-digit bid in 2002. Grab this guy, and as long as he stays healthy, you shouldn't be disappointed.
Juan Acevedo has nowhere near the potential of Jose Acevedo as he's eight years older and hasn't demonstrated either Jose's level of command or dominance in at least the last five years. Even if can somehow regain his depleted command, he just doesn't appear to have the tools to succeed in the majors. He's undraftable until he shows some consistency in the majors one of these seasons, leaving him as someJuan that you don't want on your roster in 2002.
Byrd's rebound occurred after his trade to Kansas City, and Frasier pitched just well enough that he might deserve a long look in Spring Training. He'll never be able to dominate hitters and won't return to his 1998 levels without a lot of luck, but he also shouldn't hurt you if he can maintain solid command of his pitches. I probably would wait for him to show some competence in 2002 before picking him up.
Alan Benes is the dark side of Matt Morris' return from injury as Benes had similar success to Morris back in 1997 before going down in 1998 and then struggling to regain his command for the last three seasons. He's old enough so that his arm should be developed and he shouldn't have to worry about future injuries, so he really needs a pitching coach to sit him down and encourage him to just throw the ball over the plate. While he's in trouble if the surgery depleted his velocity and he can't regain his previous dominance, he certainly could still see some success, likely in some team's bullpen. I wouldn't draft him until he starts posting solid ratios, but he'll certainly be given several opportunities due to his previous level of skill and family reputation.
James just hasn't been able to regain his 1997 form after undergoing arm problems with Anaheim. His success with St. Louis has occurred in spite of unacceptably low command ratios, and while he has the ability to strike out a good number of batters, he hasn't shown an acceptable level of consistency. Any potential 2002 value is tied to him finding a low pressure situation where he can succeed without the scrutiny of playoff pressure.
Neal may be the best closing prospect in the minors, compiling a 110:45 K:BB ratio in 107.2 IP over the last two seasons at A+ and AA for Florida with an ERA below 2.30. I'd prefer him to receive at least a half-year of AAA instruction, but there's also little reason to expect him to struggle if promoted out of spring training. He's the heir apparent to Alfonseca and certainly someone to grab cheaply in minor league drafts and auctions, since he shouldn't hurt you this year and could begin closing as soon as the second half of 2002.
Reyes neither posts great ratios as a starter nor as a reliever so will be hard-pressed to find immediate success now that he's stuck in Colorado. At least they seem willing to leave him in the bullpen since he seems to have more success there than as a starter even if his indicators don't forecast great feats at either position. You certainly shouldn't pick him up as long as he remains in Coors, since despite rather good strikeout rates, he continues to walk way too many batters. Though, he is only a good pitching coach away from some extended success, as he also doesn't allow many homers.
While Seelbach is far too old to qualify as a prospect, he's shown enough capability at AAA Richmond over the last year or two that he certainly deserves a long look from some pitching-poor team in 2002. If he remains with the Braves, he'll have a chance to win a spot in the bullpen but isn't likely to see much playing time with much better prospects ascending the organizational ladder behind him. He might not hurt you if drafted, but I'd certainly wait for him to see some extended success before taking a chance on a rather unknown quantity like Seelbach.
Sauerbeck suddenly dropped his walk rate in the second half and jacked his strikeout rate up to 13.0 K/9, a fantastic rate for any pitcher, let alone a lefty reliever. I'm a bit uncertain of this sudden success as his K:BB as been lodged at 1.4 for the past four seasons and he posted a 1.5 in the first half, although his second half 2.6 does at least indicate some future promise. I'd certainly deal him if I ran the Pirates, since I think he's far more likely to return to previous levels than to maintain his current dominance, although if he can keep this up for another few months, they could likely obtain a top hitting prospect in trade considering the bounty for Mike Myers.
Estrada lives off good command, and a control pitcher with homer problems isn't likely to see much success in Coors. He's certainly young enough to develop into a quality reliever, but he's also certainly not draftable at this time. Check back in a half season to see if he's maintained his improving AAA strikeout rate before considering him as an injury replacement.
Moore posted an impressive 3 K:BB ratio in AAA while maintaining an acceptable 122:166 K/IP ratio. He'll receive opportunities as a somewhat capable lefty starter, but he really hasn't impressed in 100 major league innings. I don't believe he'll see much major league time in the near future, although you might see where he winds up in 2003 if you need mid-season help.
The Mets' bounty for Bubba Trammell continued his descent into relief obscurity as his K:BB ratio stayed poor even as his strikeout rate headed back over 6 K/9 for the first time in two seasons. He'll see a few more opportunities due to his major league experience, but he doesn't appear to be the same consistent pitcher of pre-2000 days. You likely don't want to own Wall until he shows a lot more consistency than he has in the last two years.
Rodriguez still has significant potential as a starter so breaking him in as a lefty reliever will be a good way to keep his innings low until he builds arm strength. Between Enron and his rather low minor league K:BB ratio, I wouldn't consider drafting him in 2002, but he remains an interesting prospect for the future. He really needs a full year in AAA unless Houston becomes even more desperate for a second lefty in the major league bullpen.
Today's Fantasy Rx: If at all possible under your league rules, pick up a couple of these high-upside, high-risk pitchers in your Ultra draft instead of prospects with ETAs of 2004 or later. I'd much rather own someone like Johnny Ruffin in 2002 than even a great long-term prospect like Adrian Gonzalez. You can always trade for these prospects before they make the majors, but keeping solid middle relievers on hand throughout the season gives you the flexibility to avoid starts in good hitters' parks and to have injury replacements available without wasting FAAB.
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