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January
14th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Pitcher Month: NL Relievers

by Tim Polko

National League Relief Pitchers with $0 and $-1 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

66. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Mark Leiter 2 3.75 1.11 26 8 32 15 36.0
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 3 0 4
2001 Age: 385x5: -2 3 -3 4

Al's older brother could still contribute to some teams. He likely won't rebound to 1998 levels again, but if he can maintain his current ratios, he should have another year or two of success. Unless he lands in the right situation, he probably shouldn't make it back onto any roto teams.


67. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Mike Buddie 2 3.89 1.22 22 17 34 18 41.2
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 3 0 4
2001 Age: 305x5: -2 3 -3 4

His return to the majors as been woefully unspectacular as his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down from his last appearance with the Yankees in 1998. Buddie's strikeout rate dipped even further in the second half, indicating that he's unlikely to see much of a rebound in 2002. I don't see any reason to draft him even if he makes a team.


68. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Jerrod Riggan 3 0 3.40 1.38 41 24 42 18 47.2
NY Mets DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 4
2001 Age: 275x5: -1 3 -3 4

Riggan continued to pitch in the majors at almost exactly the same level of competence that he showed in the minors. He pitched well enough to get himself included in the Alomar deal, so he'll help comprise a very deep Cleveland bullpen for the next few years. If Wickman falters, Riggan definitely has the skills to begin closing immediately. Rank him high on your bullpen sleeper list, as he should see an occasional save opportunity beginning in 2002.


69. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Cliff Politte 2 2.42 1.23 23 8 24 7 26.0
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 3 Res
2001 Age: 275x5: -2 2 -4 3 1

Politte certainly deserves another shot at starting over someone like Dave Coggin as Politte's strikeout rate offers great potential for future success. Philadelphia doesn't appear willing to find a place for him, so you'll probably want to wait until he secures a role somewhere else before picking him up. He'd be a fantastic addition to most rosters, if you knew he was going to find playing time.


70. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Ray King 0 1 3.60 1.35 49 25 49 22 55.0
MIL Brewers DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 275x5: -1 3 -3 4

Once again a team proves the value of minor league free agent lefties as Milwaukee snagged King off the scrap heap and plugged him right into their bullpen. He's not a spectacular pitcher and isn't likely to find success in any larger role, but he should keep rolling along as a lefty specialist well into multi-million dollar free agent paydays. He doesn't help you much on draft day, but he certainly won't hurt you as a mid-season replacement for whatever reason.


71. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Masato Yoshii 4 0 4.78 1.35 63 26 127 60 113.0
MON Expos DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 365x5: -1 3 -2 4 Res

Yoshii found some success as his strikeout rate returned to pre-1999 levels. He doesn't offer much upside next season due to his age and weak skills. While he's an acceptable long reliever on a team like the Expos, he likely isn't long for the majors.


72. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Chad Zerbe 3 0 3.92 1.31 22 10 41 17 39.0
SF Giants DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 295x5: -2 2 -4 3

Zerbe gives the Giants another lefty reliever when necessary but shouldn't be kept with Christiansen and Fultz already dominating for them. He strikes out a very low number of batters, as his entire game revolves around finesse pitching while keeping the ball in the park. There's no reason for him not to see some success, but I can't see a reason to pick him up for most teams.


73. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Luther Hackman 1 1 4.29 1.18 4 14 28 17 35.2
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 265x5: -2 2 -4 3

Hackman's 2001 seems out of context with the rest of his career as he suddenly regained some dominance while also keeping a low walk rate. His overall command was better than at any time during the last few years, leaving him as a potentially acceptable reserve pick in deep drafts. Since he doesn't offer nearly as much upside as other relievers, you're likely better off waiting until he proves himself in 2002.


74. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Vic Darensbourg 1 1 4.25 1.27 33 10 52 23 48.2
FLO Marlins DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: 0 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 305x5: -2 2 -4 3

Darensbourg has posted solid K:BB ratios for three of the last four years, alternating extreme bursts of strikeouts with excellent walk rates. He'd be a closer candidate on the right team if he could ever combine these skills in the same year, but you're more likely to see him continue as a middle reliever. If he's healthy and you need roster filler, there's no reason not to employ him for a few weeks.


75. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Turk Wendell 4 1 4.43 1.45 56 34 63 33 67.0
NYM / PHI DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -1 3 3
2001 Age: 345x5: -1 3 -3 4 1

The Phillies gave up way too much in Bruce Chen and Adam Walker to acquire Wendell and Dennis Cook; either of the former pair is likely worth both of the overpaid elders. Wendell, one of the most superstitious players in baseball history, has seen a rising walk rate cause corresponding ERA increases for the last four years. This trend shows no signs of abating, so you'll probably want to let someone else overbid for a likely declining reliever in a somewhat deep pen.


76. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Steve Reed 2 1 3.48 1.39 25 13 30 12 31.0
ATL Braves DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -1 3
2001 Age: 355x5: -2 2 -4 3

While Reed slumped a little after his trade to the Braves, he still maintains enough skill to be a credible middle relief option for almost any team. His strikeout rate was a little high considering his recent past, so look for it to fall back to a little over a 6 K/9. Even if his command slips more as he ages, you can likely still use him as roster filler for another year or two.


77. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Erik Sabel 3 0 4.38 1.34 25 12 57 25 51.1
ARI Diamondbacks DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 265x5: -3 2 -5 3

Sabel finally showed a decent level of command as he nudged his strikeout rate over 5 K/9 for the first time at any upper level. He has little upside as primarily a control pitcher, so even if he breaks spring training with Arizona, he's unlikely to see much important game action. There's not a good reason to include him in your 2002 plans at this time.


78. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
T.J. Mathews 1 0 3.07 0.82 10 1 11 5 14.2
STL Cardinals DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3
2001 Age: 315x5: -3 2 -5 2

Mathews showed the first glimpses of the potential that forced the "closer of the future" projections on him several years ago. His K:BB headed over 3 for the first time as he pitched fantastic upon to his return to the NL, as you can see from the above statistics. He'll find some success in Enron even if Houston overpaid for him, but beware a sudden return to higher home run rates. I'd likely let someone else grab him until I see him continue this growth in Houston.


79. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Mark Wohlers 3 0 3.94 1.34 21 7 36 14 32.0
CIN Reds DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 2 -2 3 2
2001 Age: 315x5: -3 2 -5 3 Res

Wohlers took another step forward in 2001 as he showed good command in the first half followed by very good strikeout numbers (and increased walk numbers) as he started firing the ball harder upon his move to New York. He appears to be a fine dollar gamble as part of the deep Cleveland bullpen, but the potential remains for him to suddenly lose all ability to throw strikes again. I wouldn't be comfortable owning him under most circumstances, although there's probably little reason for my current concerns. As long as the Indians use him in low pressure situations, he should find success in Jacobs' Field.


80. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Mike Myers 2 0 3.60 1.40 36 24 32 16 40.0
COL Rockies DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -1 2 -2 2
2001 Age: 325x5: -2 2 -4 3

It doesn't really matter if he's one of the top left-handed situational relievers in baseball; Mike Myers is barely worth a decent catching prospect like J.D. Closser, so he's certainly not worth Closser and a top hitting prospect in Cust. Myers' raw statistics will improve as he leaves Coors, but he's unlikely to see nearly enough time to gain any significant value. He simply won't pitch enough innings to help many teams. While he won't hurt you as an injury replacement, seeing Austin Powers in Goldmember next summer will likely be as helpful to your team as adding Myers as anything but an injury replacement.


81. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Dennis Cook 1 0 4.53 1.25 38 14 43 23 45.2
NYM / PHI DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:L    B:L4x4: -1 1 -3 2 1
2001 Age: 385x5: -3 2 -5 3

Cook rebounded nicely from an off-year in 2000, but his strikeout rate continues to decline at about 1 K/9 per season. He'll need to maintain an unusually low walk rate to keep his limited value, and he's unlikely to do so against the challenge of repeatedly facing the offensively-minded and walk-happy AL West in 2002. He might not hurt as roster filler if needed, but there's no reason to own at any other time.


82. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Vicente Padilla 3 0 4.24 1.41 29 12 36 16 34.0
PHI Phillies DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 1 -3 2 2
2001 Age: 235x5: -3 2 -5 2 1

Padilla showed tremendous potential at a rather young age in 2001, putting together a season that should position him as a top set-up guy this season with a chance to close in 2003. His success stemmed from combining his 2000 strikeout rate with his 1999 walk rate, enabling him to show excellent command without giving up many home runs. If Larry Bowa realizes Padilla's potential after jerking him around in 2001, the Phillies could find themselves with a very inexpensive top closer for a few seasons. He is definitely someone to strongly consider for your bullpen in 2002.


83. WSERA WHIPKBB HERIP
Grant Roberts 1 0 3.81 1.23 29 8 24 11 26.0
NY Mets DVDTCDAVATCDLABR/Tout
P:R    B:R4x4: -1 1 -3 2
2001 Age: 235x5: -3 -2 -5 2

Roberts has been one of the most prepared pitching prospects in the game due to spending much of the last three seasons at AAA. He pitched quite well for most of last season, even opening up in the second half to strike out more than a batter an inning. I don't expect him to see much more major league time with the Mets, although he should find almost immediate success upon a trade to any of the other two-dozen organizations with an immediate need for young starting pitching. You'll probably want to wait until he lands in a specific role before drafting him, as he could easily be on his way to the AL any day.



National League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Always chew your pretzels thoroughly before swallowing if you don't want to choke on a piece, faint, and scrape your face on your glasses while falling off your couch.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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