January 14th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko National League Relief Pitchers with $0 and $-1 PDV
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Al's older brother could still contribute to some teams. He likely won't rebound to 1998 levels again, but if he can maintain his current ratios, he should have another year or two of success. Unless he lands in the right situation, he probably shouldn't make it back onto any roto teams.
His return to the majors as been woefully unspectacular as his walk rate is up and his strikeout rate is down from his last appearance with the Yankees in 1998. Buddie's strikeout rate dipped even further in the second half, indicating that he's unlikely to see much of a rebound in 2002. I don't see any reason to draft him even if he makes a team.
Riggan continued to pitch in the majors at almost exactly the same level of competence that he showed in the minors. He pitched well enough to get himself included in the Alomar deal, so he'll help comprise a very deep Cleveland bullpen for the next few years. If Wickman falters, Riggan definitely has the skills to begin closing immediately. Rank him high on your bullpen sleeper list, as he should see an occasional save opportunity beginning in 2002.
Politte certainly deserves another shot at starting over someone like Dave Coggin as Politte's strikeout rate offers great potential for future success. Philadelphia doesn't appear willing to find a place for him, so you'll probably want to wait until he secures a role somewhere else before picking him up. He'd be a fantastic addition to most rosters, if you knew he was going to find playing time.
Once again a team proves the value of minor league free agent lefties as Milwaukee snagged King off the scrap heap and plugged him right into their bullpen. He's not a spectacular pitcher and isn't likely to find success in any larger role, but he should keep rolling along as a lefty specialist well into multi-million dollar free agent paydays. He doesn't help you much on draft day, but he certainly won't hurt you as a mid-season replacement for whatever reason.
Yoshii found some success as his strikeout rate returned to pre-1999 levels. He doesn't offer much upside next season due to his age and weak skills. While he's an acceptable long reliever on a team like the Expos, he likely isn't long for the majors.
Zerbe gives the Giants another lefty reliever when necessary but shouldn't be kept with Christiansen and Fultz already dominating for them. He strikes out a very low number of batters, as his entire game revolves around finesse pitching while keeping the ball in the park. There's no reason for him not to see some success, but I can't see a reason to pick him up for most teams.
Hackman's 2001 seems out of context with the rest of his career as he suddenly regained some dominance while also keeping a low walk rate. His overall command was better than at any time during the last few years, leaving him as a potentially acceptable reserve pick in deep drafts. Since he doesn't offer nearly as much upside as other relievers, you're likely better off waiting until he proves himself in 2002.
Darensbourg has posted solid K:BB ratios for three of the last four years, alternating extreme bursts of strikeouts with excellent walk rates. He'd be a closer candidate on the right team if he could ever combine these skills in the same year, but you're more likely to see him continue as a middle reliever. If he's healthy and you need roster filler, there's no reason not to employ him for a few weeks.
The Phillies gave up way too much in Bruce Chen and Adam Walker to acquire Wendell and Dennis Cook; either of the former pair is likely worth both of the overpaid elders. Wendell, one of the most superstitious players in baseball history, has seen a rising walk rate cause corresponding ERA increases for the last four years. This trend shows no signs of abating, so you'll probably want to let someone else overbid for a likely declining reliever in a somewhat deep pen.
While Reed slumped a little after his trade to the Braves, he still maintains enough skill to be a credible middle relief option for almost any team. His strikeout rate was a little high considering his recent past, so look for it to fall back to a little over a 6 K/9. Even if his command slips more as he ages, you can likely still use him as roster filler for another year or two.
Sabel finally showed a decent level of command as he nudged his strikeout rate over 5 K/9 for the first time at any upper level. He has little upside as primarily a control pitcher, so even if he breaks spring training with Arizona, he's unlikely to see much important game action. There's not a good reason to include him in your 2002 plans at this time.
Mathews showed the first glimpses of the potential that forced the "closer of the future" projections on him several years ago. His K:BB headed over 3 for the first time as he pitched fantastic upon to his return to the NL, as you can see from the above statistics. He'll find some success in Enron even if Houston overpaid for him, but beware a sudden return to higher home run rates. I'd likely let someone else grab him until I see him continue this growth in Houston.
Wohlers took another step forward in 2001 as he showed good command in the first half followed by very good strikeout numbers (and increased walk numbers) as he started firing the ball harder upon his move to New York. He appears to be a fine dollar gamble as part of the deep Cleveland bullpen, but the potential remains for him to suddenly lose all ability to throw strikes again. I wouldn't be comfortable owning him under most circumstances, although there's probably little reason for my current concerns. As long as the Indians use him in low pressure situations, he should find success in Jacobs' Field.
It doesn't really matter if he's one of the top left-handed situational relievers in baseball; Mike Myers is barely worth a decent catching prospect like J.D. Closser, so he's certainly not worth Closser and a top hitting prospect in Cust. Myers' raw statistics will improve as he leaves Coors, but he's unlikely to see nearly enough time to gain any significant value. He simply won't pitch enough innings to help many teams. While he won't hurt you as an injury replacement, seeing Austin Powers in Goldmember next summer will likely be as helpful to your team as adding Myers as anything but an injury replacement.
Cook rebounded nicely from an off-year in 2000, but his strikeout rate continues to decline at about 1 K/9 per season. He'll need to maintain an unusually low walk rate to keep his limited value, and he's unlikely to do so against the challenge of repeatedly facing the offensively-minded and walk-happy AL West in 2002. He might not hurt as roster filler if needed, but there's no reason to own at any other time.
Padilla showed tremendous potential at a rather young age in 2001, putting together a season that should position him as a top set-up guy this season with a chance to close in 2003. His success stemmed from combining his 2000 strikeout rate with his 1999 walk rate, enabling him to show excellent command without giving up many home runs. If Larry Bowa realizes Padilla's potential after jerking him around in 2001, the Phillies could find themselves with a very inexpensive top closer for a few seasons. He is definitely someone to strongly consider for your bullpen in 2002.
Roberts has been one of the most prepared pitching prospects in the game due to spending much of the last three seasons at AAA. He pitched quite well for most of last season, even opening up in the second half to strike out more than a batter an inning. I don't expect him to see much more major league time with the Mets, although he should find almost immediate success upon a trade to any of the other two-dozen organizations with an immediate need for young starting pitching. You'll probably want to wait until he lands in a specific role before drafting him, as he could easily be on his way to the AL any day.
Today's Fantasy Rx: Always chew your pretzels thoroughly before swallowing if you don't want to choke on a piece, faint, and scrape your face on your glasses while falling off your couch.
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