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January 13th 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko National League Relief Pitchers with Single-Digit PDV
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Urbina didn't miss a beat in his return and demonstrated a rather complete recovery by improving all his ratios in the second half. While Strickland should be a very capable replacement, Urbina remains one of the top closers in the game when healthy. His 2001 stats are merely a suggestion of what he can do on a decent team, and we could definitely see a return to his 1998 stats of a 1.30 ERA and well over thirty saves.
If the new Montreal manager has the slightest clue of how to use his relievers, we can hopefully look forward to a couple dozen 1+ IP saves from Strickland, leaving his value at around $30 without an extremely high save total. Of course, if he hails from the LaRussian School and leaves his relievers in set roles, Strickland could earn more than that value by expanding upon his save totals. Montreal will have a weak offense with a couple of very good starters and a couple of somewhat weak starters, so we know the save opportunities will be there for someone, and his skills certainly indicate that it should be Strickland.
Farnsworth's second half numbers from 2000 strongly indicated an approaching breakout as he struck out over a batter per inning while only walking slightly more than one third that amount. He was able to air out his fastball in brief appearances, and once he just focused on throwing strikes, his control problems practically disappeared. I'm mildly concerned that he might be one of several pitchers to slump with a ready excuse of "lack of Acosta", but since a new pitching coach should be much better for the younger pitchers, Farnsworth should focus on consolidating his gains. Given Gordon's expiring contract, Farnsworth is a good buy up to perhaps even the mid-teens as he'll see some save opportunities in 2002 and should close no later than May of 2003.
Fox is perhaps as much at risk for further injury as almost any pitcher in the game. His stuff is fantastic when healthy, and while he pitched great in 2001, you can't count on him for a full season. Try to grab him cheap by talking up Leskanic and then trade Fox after he runs up a few saves. Fox is the superior pitcher to everyone currently in the Milwaukee pen, but remember he'll likely always have problems avoiding the DL.
Prinz found a couple months of save opportunities as Brenly seemed to correctly believe that Kim helped the Snakes more by pitching effectively for two innings of middle relief instead of just a rather useless one as a "closer". Considering Prinz's 2000 MLEs indicate the potential to close in the majors, he was a decent option as long as Brenly avoided a traditional bullpen setup. He'll likely shift Prinz back to setup work next year even if Mantei doesn't come back, so don't bid more than a buck or two on this guy. There's no reason to expect he'll have much value without those save opportunities.
Nunez started showing off some rather impressive skills in the second half although we'll need to wait to see if the improved K:BB ratio approaching 3 is a fluke or the beginning of a very positive trend. The Florida bullpen appears to be in extreme flux as Alfonseca is too expensive to keep around for much longer, the lefties seem perpetually injured, Looper still doesn't seem ready for a bigger role and Blaine Neal's only a rookie. Nunez has a great opportunity to settle into a setup role if he starts 2002 off solidly. However, you'll probably want to avoid him if he struggles in spring training as he may not receive those opportunities after a bad first impression. For now, he seems a solid target for a buck or two or as a reserve.
Carrara's solid skill gains over the past few years culminated in a very successful return to the majors. He's unlikely to start considering the expensive depth of the Dodger rotation, so we're left with the only reliever with actual closing potential in that bullpen. Ignore Herges and Quantrill as they struggle to post ratios of 6 K/9, and grab Carrara for a buck or two and watch giddily as the saves start rolling in sometime in May. Jim Tracy may not be willing to give him the chance, but considering he's willing to use LoDuca and Beltre in non-traditional ways, perhaps he'd be open to giving an older reliever a shot at closing, especially since he's only a year or two years older than his main competition.
We've avoided Sullivan for the last year or two because of his extreme workloads in relief of over 100 IP a year for the last few years. While he might be able to keep this up, please note that he remains at extreme risk for injury based on almost all similar pitchers. He's perfectly capable of closing if given the opportunity, and as long as he's healthy, he'll never hurt your numbers. I like him for a couple bucks, though I'm just not comfortable speculating at a higher level.
I still believe that Manzanillo was the best free agent reliever this winter, and the Pirates screwed him by offering arbitration and then not working out a deal. Of course, I hold Manzanillo's agent equally responsible as he could have signed a three-year deal for half of Mike Williams' eventual contract or at least accepted arbitration since no other team seems willing to give up a first round pick to sign him. I expect he'll wind up on Texas since they're already losing so many draft picks that yet another shouldn't really matter. Manzanillo's a little old to suddenly show these levels, so focus on his second half as a better barometer for the future, grab him at a buck or two, and happily accept several dollars of profit.
Powell inexplicably found much more interest on the market than several superior relievers. Before you go bidding on him as an alternative to Zimmerman and Rocker in Texas, remember that he hasn't hit 2 K:BB for a full season since 1997 and that his K/9 has dropped precipitously over the past two years. His second half numbers bode well for his immediate prospects, but his overall skill level is not in the same figurative ballpark with someone like Zimmerman. Powell's a decent pickup as a middle reliever, though you should not count on any saves from him in 2002.
Matthews appears to have a bright future with the Cardinals as he's a great reliever who walks too many guys and a decent starter who gives up too many home runs. Neither of those weaknesses show up in the other role, so there's little reason for LaRussa to not use Matthews as a lefty middle reliever and spot starter. He's a good pickup in dollar days, although I'd like to see another year of these numbers before committing any more of my budget.
We happily owned Remlinger on several teams in 2001, using him primarily as the 10th man whenever we didn't trust certain starters against certain teams though we'd hoped for more save opportunities when drafting him. His strikeout rate shot up, and he'll likely only benefit from Smoltz's presence next to him in the bullpen. He's a very capable reliever and certainly worth a couple bucks in any league.
Marquis shows great potential as both a starter and reliever, though he'll likely only excel once left in a particular role. Despite commentary from the Braves to the contrary, barring any roster movement, I think that Marquis will wind up in the bullpen for much of the season. Starting Odalis Perez behind Maddux, Glavine, Lopez, and Millwood gives them a second lefty option that could be quite useful in the postseason. Marquis should be used to spell Perez against strong right-handed lineups, although he will take either Lopez's spot in 2003 or Millwood's or Perez's after a trade. Either way, you definitely want to bid a few bucks since he'll pitch well in 2002 while showing more promise for the future.
Cabrera returned to '99 levels after a 2000 Enron-sponsored disaster as the Braves let him pitch in a reduced stress middle relief role in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. His ratios indicate that he'll likely see a rise in his qualitative statistics in 2002, although he should remain an acceptable middle relief option in deep leagues. You don't want to spend more than a buck or so on him as he does have the potential to hurt your team and likely won't see any save opportunities.
DeJean's strikeout rate rose steadily throughout the year, indicating solid future potential now that he's left Coors and even the chance for some save opportunities given the very injury-prone Milwaukee staff. His command is still a little weak due to walking too many batters, but he will see late inning situations if he can edge his strikeout rate even closer to a batter per inning from his second half 7.8 K/9. I'm not comfortable gambling too much on his prospects, although I'd seriously consider $2 if someone else calls out his name and I have a few pitching spots open, even if he would be a better reserve pickup.
Herges has been heavily touted as a future closer despite never showing the appropriate level of pitching acumen. He established immediate roto value for himself in 2000 by vulturing almost a dozen wins, so he'll likely remain at an overinflated value in many drafts. His second half suggests some closing potential if he could ever reduce his walk rate, although I'm prepared to put my money in Carrara before these other current Dodger closing options.
While the Braves clearly won the John Rocker deal, Karsay didn't perform at quite the same high level of skill in Atlanta. He was still the best reliever in baseball in the first half, and his signing gives the Yankees potentially the strongest bullpen that they've ever possessed. He'll be somewhat ignored since he's fighting Ramiro Mendoza and Mike Stanton even for 8th inning appearances, but remember that Karsay will likely earn double digits even with limited saves and wins. He's certainly a great middle reliever to add to any roster.
Brower showed an acceptable skill level in the first half before tailing off in the second. He has the potential to be an adequate middle reliever or even a fifth starter, though he doesn't have nearly the upside of perhaps a dozen other Reds' pitchers due to his age and relative skill level. His 2001 strikeout rate represented a peak for his major league career, so I'd be a little cautious about a repeat. He should be an acceptable injury replacement for at least the first half of 2001 even if I'm not comfortable expecting much more.
Witasick followed the Farnsworth pattern of taking a somewhat hard-throwing starter with weak control and converting him into a dominant reliever. If the Yankees suspected that he could continue these levels in the American League for the entire year then dealing D'Angelo Jimenez for him makes sense. Unfortunately, he slipped a little in the AL and didn't provide them with consistent middle relief, leaving New York without one of the best middle infield prospects in the game. Witasick still shows considerable promise as part of a rather deep and experienced San Francisco bullpen for 2002, although I doubt he'll be worth more than a few bucks at the draft, especially with no likely save opportunities.
Cruz simply overpowered many batters, defying Enron problems on the way to a rather sweet season for both the Astros and his fantasy owners. His strikeout rate jumped by close to 2 K/9 as he maintained an already solid walk rate, allowing him to maintain a low ERA and very low WHIP even with a somewhat inflated home run rate. While he's not high on my 2002 list since I worry about Enron relievers, he should make an excellent pickup for a buck when other owners are buying soft-tossing starters likely to get hammered.
Van Poppel continued to excel in his second year of bullpen work, increasing his strikeout rate to over a batter per inning. While he still walks a few too many batters, he seems poised to dominate in middle relief for a few seasons. He's the best candidate in the Texas bullpen to potentially take save opportunities away from Zimmerman. Don't expect too much, although he'll probably earn a profit on any salary under $5.
Looper still doesn't appear ready to even work regularly in the setup role expected of him when Florida dealt Renteria to St. Louis for Looper, Pablo Ozuna, and Armando Almanza. His strikeout rate finally reached an acceptable level although he continues to walk too many batters. While he still has plenty of time to emerge as a reliable late-inning option, he's probably one more year of growing pains away from any consistency in an important role. I see no reason to draft him for anything over $2 at the absolute most since Vlad Nunez will likely pitch better in 2002 and go for less in most auctions.
Bottalico posted some very intriguing numbers in his first middle relief exposure in years. Since he re-signed with Philadelphia, he remains a very attractive middle relief option as he saw across-the-board gains in the second half while Mesa's strikeout rate slipped even as his walk rate plummeted. Bottalico remains the #2 guy in the Philly pen for now and probably most of the season, although he clearly seems capable of closing again if given the opportunity.
Hope for an immediate blowup and subsequent DFA, since Speier would likely be an attractive FAAB candidate in any other home park in baseball. He even has the talent to succeed in Coors, although I'm concerned about an occasionally elevated home run rate. Speier might even be a better candidate to close than Todd Jones, but he likely won't get that opportunity due to his lack of experience and inexpensive salary. He's not someone who should be picked up in most leagues as long as he remains in middle relief on Colorado.
White rebounded from a weak fist half to post an astounding 6.5 K:BB ratio in 40 second half IP. His historically low home run rates will likely see an increase in Coors, although he does appear to have the skills to see some success despite the altitude. I'm not comfortable owning him unless he establishes himself as the closer, and since he's been a middle reliever for almost all of his career, there's no reason for him to return to closing at this time.
He infuriated thousands of Strickland owners by grabbing three cheap saves when Torborg pigheadedly decided to platoon co-closers. Stewart certainly has the skills for setup work and even potentially closing, although Strickland has a much better track record especially with regards to a superior strikeout rate. If the other owners focus on Strickland and ignore Stewart in the Montreal bullpen, he becomes a very interesting Dollar Days option for some inexpensive yet solid relief work. He's as likely to step in for Strickland as is someone like Lloyd or Reames.
With Stewart and Lloyd, the Expos have two fairly redundant lefty relievers, especially since Lloyd isn't particularly great against lefties and costs three times more than Stewart. Lloyd will likely be on his way elsewhere as soon as Montreal regains some autonomy in decision making, so there's really no reason to pick him up in most leagues at this point. He'll likely never be worth more than a few dollars at best, so only employ him as an injury replacement on most teams.
Jackson cost Larry Dierker his job when Dierker entrusted him, as a veteran, with holding a lead in the kind of situation normally reserved for Dotel. While he didn't retain his previous strikeout rate following a missed 2000 due to shoulder surgery, he can still likely pitch capably for a couple more seasons. There's little reason to draft him as he offers practically no upside when compared to the dozens of hard-throwing relievers in bullpens on every team in the league. He might not hurt you if he can maintain these current levels, but he's only a slight decrease in strikeout rate away from serious ERA/WHIP pain.
Fikac enters Spring Training as Hoffman's primary setup man and top candidate for excess save opportunities. He's still somewhat raw despite his mildly advanced age, although he's also probably one of the safer setup bets in the league. Few people know about him so you can likely grab him cheap and if Hoffman goes down for some ridiculous reason, he's first in line for a bunch of saves in a great pitchers' park. Fikac is definitely someone to target in any NL draft, and if he slips past other owners' notice, he makes an even better reserve or Ultra pick.
Timlin continues to pitch solidly in middle relief despite showing almost no aptitude for closing. He offers little upside between his age and a yearly rising OBA. I'm especially concerned that left-handers have hit over .310 against him the last two years, and while LaRussa will minimize those match-ups wherever possible, he's unlikely to improve upon his 2001 values.
Stechschulte offers some promise as a future setup guy if he can trim about one BB/9 off his walk rate. He doesn't strike out many batters so has less value in most 5x5 leagues, and he'll also find himself fighting for a spot in a crowded Cardinal pen unless they manage to make some deals. I see no reason to bid more than a buck or so for him with Isringhausen having secured all probable St. Louis save opportunities for the next few seasons.
Ligtenberg's 2002 was a strong follow-up to his first year returned from arm surgery. His strikeout rate continues to hover around a batter per inning while his walk rate dropped almost by half after his brief mid-season demotion. Ligtenberg should combine with Remlinger and Smoltz to give the Braves extremely effective late-inning relief in 2002, and he should be a great pickup in almost any league for a few bucks. He even offers good strikeout potential in 5x5 leagues.
Christiansen finally appears healthy and should remain one of the top left-handed relievers in baseball. He and Manzanillo would have been my top two targets as a general manager, and by staying in San Francisco, Christiansen should continue to post solid $5+ values every year. I don't see much upside considering the depth in the rest of the pen, but he should stay at the top of your injury replacement list and potentially on your reserve roster for the entire season. He's extremely unlikely to ever hurt your stats and even offers some vulturing potential like all primary lefty relievers.
Franco finally saw his walk rate increase by a factor of 2.5 in the second half as a slew of injuries began taking their toll on his skills. After off-season surgery, he'll be somewhat tentative in Spring Training, and with the pitching depth currently on the Mets, you can probably no longer view him as a potential replacement for Benitez. Bids on Franco should max at about $5 if you have two diehard Mets' fans in your league. Considering his history and reputation, he'll likely be overvalued and is unlikely to end up on your team.
Swindell's second career as a lefty reliever continues despite a dramatically increased home run rate. Like most lefty relievers, he offers little upside especially when you consider his age, although he should remain a great option as an injury replacement for another year or two. There's no reason that he can't earn a few dollars profit on a $1 bid, but you really should be spending your money on setup guys and potential setup guys. Even in the convoluted Arizona pen, Swindell is unlikely to receive additional opportunities.
Lincoln emerged as a very solid reliever for Pittsburgh even if his upside remains quite low due to a strikeout rate unlikely to even reach 6 K:BB. He could return to the minors rather quickly if either his homer or hit rate increase, although he should be a solid middle reliever if he can avoid those pitfalls. Mike Williams blocks any save opportunities, and without any strikeout potential, Lincoln is quite unlikely to show much profit in the Pirate pen.
Riedling was considered a great sleeper by enough owners that the relatively unknown middle reliever fetched a surprising $3 at the LABR draft. He didn't pitch especially well even when healthy in 2001, so you'll probably want to avoid his recovery from arm troubles. While he still retains significant potential to emerge as a future setup man or even closer, I don't think he's likely to wind up in either role for 2002, leaving me unlikely to draft him except perhaps on a reserve roster if he proves healthy in Florida.
Fetters has asked for a trade away from Pittsburgh, a decision that will likely see him released to the free agent wolves that have left much better relievers unable to find work this off-season. I'm not sure that almost any work situation is worth losing $2 million in income when you're running out of time in your career, so Fetters has placed himself high on the list of potential winners of the Jody Reed Award for worst contract decision. While he pitched great in the first half, his second half numbers were quite awful, and I certainly wouldn't want him on my team at these levels.
San Francisco made one of the worst trades of last off-season when they acquired Worrell from the Cubs for Bill Mueller. They struggled all year to find a third base replacement and seemed at times to lack enough roster spots for the capable pitchers in their organization that deserved a shot at the majors. Worrell isn't a bad pitcher even if he's not worth a starting 3B, and he should be able to maintain these levels almost exactly for another few seasons. He does have some upside if his strikeout rate can return to his 1999 levels of almost a batter per inning, although he's probably no better than third in line for saves after Nen, FRod, and Witasick, leaving him worth only about a buck or so in most leagues.
While Ed Wade was roundly vilified for overspending on three aging relievers last winter, all his acquisitions pitched quite well for most of the season. Cormier isn't a traditional lefty specialist since his success actually varies from year to year; in 2002, he held right-handers to 71 points less in BA than left-handers. His command is good, he doesn't allow many homers, and his strikeout rate appears fairly solid for the year, but his cumulative stats obscure a rather awful second half when his strikeout rate plummeted and his homer rate spiked. Don't employ him as anything other than an injury replacement since his upside remains low and you'll want to wait and see if he returns to the qualitative ratios from the first half of 2001 before adding him to your team.
Santiago was a solid mid-season addition by the Phillies, giving them a potentially solid, young, groundball pitcher to add depth in their bullpen. He offers little upside since his strikeout rate has barely touched 6 K:BB even in his best years, so you probably won't want to consider drafting him in most leagues. Wade went a little overboard in mid-season bullpen acquisitions, sacrificing both solid prospects and worthless veterans to acquire Santiago, Wayne Gomes, Turk Wendell, and Dennis Cook while he should have been looking for another starter or more offense. The Phillies' immediate future depends on his ability to find the best deal for a couple soon-to-depart players from his current core.
Seanez posted simply fantastic ratios in the second half, leaving him with even some closing potential if he can find the right situation and remain healthy. With his perpetual injury risk, I don't want him as anything more than a mid-season addition, so determine his value to your team based on his 2002 role. He hasn't pitched more than 60 IP in the last several years, so don't expect him to add much to your team in ERA or WHIP.
Fultz edges in as the last National League pitcher with Positive Draft Value and yet another great San Francisco reliever. The Giants' entire probable 2002 bullpen all posted NL PDV in 2001, illustrating both the talent and depth hiding in PacBell Park. Any one of these guys is capable of closing if needed, and all of them should continue to post very solid numbers in whatever roles Dusty Baker assigns them. Fultz offers as much immediate potential as Christiansen, and he could easily head towards double-digit value if he began vulturing wins. Unlike almost every other lefty reliever, Fultz would be worth a buck on draft day since many other owners won't consider bidding on him and, at worst, he's a top injury replacement.
Today's Fantasy Rx: We noticed we needed gas for the car right after we pulled out of the driveway, so we headed over to the nearest Shell. Our mechanic prefers we use Amoco since it's a cleaner gas and helps the car run better, but the nearest Amoco is a few miles away while there's a Shell only about a half mile, and the Shell's open 24 hours. Since we were grabbing Wendy's a little after midnight, we knew the Shell would be open. The other reason we headed to Shell was that the other nearest Amoco was recently torn down and converted into a BP. While we'd like to use the new BP cards that recently arrived in the mail to replace our Amoco cards, this new BP doesn't post their gas prices on their sign. We'd rather not patronize a gas station that prefers to advertise their café instead of their prices, since they're obviously more concerned about their food quality than the fuel that runs our car. The construction to build the BP was also quite confusing, as they left chain fences up even past the opening date, so we weren't quite sure when exactly they opened. All this seemingly unnecessary hullabaloo (what was wrong with the old Amoco station?) royally irritated us, so we decided to go back to our old Shell station. Shell is almost a tradition for us since a typical Saturday night when I was young usually involved filling up the car at the Shell near the pizza place, grabbing a couple packs of baseball cards at the White Hen next to pizza place, and then getting the pizza. So we're not exactly torn up about leaving an unnecessarily-reconstructed BP. So we head over to the Shell, pull into the parking lot, and immediately notice the tanker sitting there. Now we're certainly not going to fill up while the tanker's stirring up all the harmful particles at the bottom of the tanks, so we decided to try the BP. As we approach the BP, we immediately notice the several huge balloons flying above the station. Apparently they're still in their second or third month of a Grand Opening of some sorts. We also notice an unusually long line for the car wash, about ten to fifteen cars, especially since its now about 12:15 in the morning. We avoid the line and head over to the pumps, where we have to move past the first pump since there's another large balloon flying right where our windshield needed to be for us to use that pump. I certainly need access to squeegie the windows as they're filthy from the snow and whatnot around here, so we circle around to Pump #2. After a few moments of looking at yet another strangely configured new pump, we realize that the credit card slot has "Do Not Use" taped over it. So we head to the next pump, and then the next pump, and after looking at almost every available pump, we conclude that this brand new BP station hasn't bothered setting up credit cards at the pumps. We have no intention of going in to pay when the station is that busy on a very early Sunday morning, so decided to head out to the other nearby Shell station. It appeared somewhat dark when we first drove by, but a couple people had since pulled in and stayed a few minutes at the pumps, so we assumed they were open despite the dim lighting. The display on the pumps is lit so we stop the car and I get out to fill the car. I'm all the way past swiping the card, flipping the lever, and inserting the nozzle when I realize that the little switch in the gas handle that stops you from overfilling your tank is missing on this particular handle. I fiddle with it for several seconds to see if its just lodged somewhere less visible due to the glum lighting, but it didn't appear to be anywhere around the handle. Feeling rather fed up with the entire concept of fueling the car, I quickly pump in ten gallons, ignore the badly-streaked windows, and leave as quickly as possible. While pulling out of the Shell lot, Jess notices the "Free Car Wash" sign obscured by more of those ridiculous balloons small enough so as to be quite difficult to read from the angles at which we approached the stations. So feeling vindicated that we at least figured out the mystery of the car wash, we drove over to Wendy's for a well-deserved late night burger. Oh, and your prescription's a fairly obvious "fill your car up in the middle of the day to avoid weirdness early on Sunday morning."
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