National League Relief Pitchers with Double-Digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Robb Nen		4	45	3.01	1.03		93	22	58	26	77.2
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	34		28		51		41		33
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	33		25		49		35		28

For roto purposes, he remains a dominant closer, easily capable of staying on top of this list for the next few years. However, the Giants also have the equally dominant Felix Rodriguez at around a third of the cost. I also believe that Nen is a free agent after the season, so he's certainly a likely trade candidate if the San Francisco slips out of the race. I don't expect that to happen until past the trading deadline, so consider Nen gold in the NL for at least another season.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Shaw		3	43	3.62	1.08		58	18	63	30	74.2
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	31		26		45		37		23
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	28		22		42		31		15

I bid $38 on Shaw in a 4x4 last year thinking someone else would go $39. We got "stuck" with these statistics and won saves by a very comfortable margin. LA certainly should have found a way to re-sign him, even potentially picking up his rather expensive option. He appears quite serious about wanting to return to a team near his Ohio home, and I'd almost expect him to retire at this point since Cincy, Cleveland, St. Louis, and Pittsburgh all have full bullpens. Shaw could pitch exceptionally well for another year or two, although there are more dominant options available in the closer and potential closer ranks.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jose Mesa		3	42	2.34	1.23		59	20	65	18	69.1
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	30		25		45		36		7
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	28		22		41		31		8

We were among the thousands of owners who were interested in Mesa last year but couldn't quite bring ourselves to spend enough to secure his services. Now our best bet is to overpay in trade for him as a keeper, since he could easily return to this lofty ranking for at least one more year. His walk rate dropped in half in the second half, accompanied by a 2 K/9 drop in strikeouts. While warning signs exist suggesting a potential future downfall, I don't expect it to occur in 2002.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Armando Benitez		6	43	3.77	1.30		93	40	59	32	76.1
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	29		25		43		35		30
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	28		22		41		31		26

The Mets seem reluctant to trade Benitez despite his falling skills, though they should probably consider a deal if the right offer appears. Of course, now they can't get rid of him since they're going for it all in 2002, so he's likely safe in Shea until the end of the year. His declining strikeout numbers are cause for mild concern, but remember that he still strikes out well over a batter an inning at a rate superior to all save a few other closers. He's certainly worth a solid $30 bid, and there's no reason you can't go another few bucks to insure 30+ saves.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Trevor Hoffman		3	43	3.43	1.14		63	21	48	23	60.1
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	29		25		43		35		35
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	27		21		40		30		25

While Sutter and Gossage are having some problems making it into the Hall, there should be few skeptics when Hoffman becomes eligible for election. He's dominated for eight straight years and appears able to continue this streak for another few seasons. With the resurgence of the Padres likely less than a season away, now is the time to grab him after a mild slump at a small discount. He could easily return to $40 next season if he can reduce his walk rate slightly, a decrease that appears probable given his improvement in the second half.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Billy Wagner		2	39	2.73	1.02		79	20	44	19	62.2
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	29		24		42		35		22
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	27		21		40		30		17

Wagner is set for the next few years after proving that he can pitch extremely effectively in Enron and signing a somewhat lucrative contract extension that binds him to the Astros for the next few seasons. His skills are slightly off from his pre-injury levels, but he's still tossing out very sweet command and strikeout ratios. Ignore the stadium and grab him while injury concerns still linger in some minds.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Danny Graves		6	32	4.15	1.26		49	18	83	37	80.1
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	22		19		33		28		22
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	20		17		29		24		18

Now here's a closer that we'll finally consider owning, as he showed a sharp increase in command in the second half. His qualitative numbers didn't show much improvement, but his underlying skills indicate an established closer that might be able to step it up a notch. Of course, the increase could be an aberration in a limited sample size, however since he's already shown he can close games, it's not unfathomable that he might eventually learn how to pitch. I still have concerns about him moving into the rotation or onto another club due to an arbitration-inflated salary, although he should be okay for 2002.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Byung Hyun-Kim		5	19	2.94	1.04		113	44	58	32	98.0
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		18		31		26		10
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	21		17		31		24		7

The Rodney Dangerfield of Relievers, we've heard Kim's name butchered at several different drafts over the past few years. It's really not that hard to pronounce, so we can't understand why no one takes the five necessary seconds to learn it. After the Yankees sauteéd him in the World Series, he might be available at a nice discount in many drafts next season. Mantei should remain on the DL for much of the year, so now is certainly a great time to grab Kim for your team. Remember that his World Series "problems" were due to severe overexposure: in the first game, Brenly left him out there for over 60 pitches. He shouldn't repeat that mistake during the season, making Kim a very attractive addition for any team, easily capable of returning these values or more.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Antonio Alfonseca		4	28	3.06	1.35		40	15	68	21	61.2
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	19		17		28		24		23
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	17		14		24		21		15

Another closer that we've avoided in past years, he's now demonstrated an acceptable skills' set for two straight seasons. While we believe the Marlins should dump him to save money and replace him with a closer with more upside, he's an acceptable buy up to around $20 in 2002. Count Rugen should be able to maintain these levels for another few years, but don't overbid as he might soon be on the move.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tom "Flash" Gordon		1	27	3.38	1.06		67	16	32	17	45.1
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		23		17		15
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	17		14		24		20		15

Yes, he pitched great when healthy, but you might hear about another small surgery even before we post this column. He's at extreme risk for 2002 because of health concerns, and despite fantastic numbers when healthy, cannot be expected to remain healthy for long enough to even match these numbers. Bid him to the mid-teens and then save your money for Farnsworth, especially since he's quite likely to be closing by the end of the year and almost certainly in 2003.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Williams		6	22	3.80	1.48		59	35	60	27	64.0
PIT / HOU		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	14		13		20		19		17
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	12		12		18		17		13

Williams pitched decently in the first half before a nasty strikeout rate decrease once moving to Houston. He's definitely someone to target for 2002, since he'll likely come quite cheap and Pittsburgh's starting rotation could be on the upswing with the arrival of actual pitching depth in the Todd Ritchie trade. Don't go bidding above the low teens, although he's a solid option for those of you that want an inexpensive second closer or at least don't want to finish last in saves.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Steve Kline.		3	9	1.80	1.09		54	29	53	15	75.0
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	13		12		19		18		1
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	12		11		17		16		1

If his price crosses five dollars, cross him off your draft list. His skills don't indicate the competence necessary to repeat these levels, and while he could earn close to $10 since he showed solid improvement in the second half, he isn't likely to receive too many opportunities after the expensive acquisition of Isringhausen. Try to make someone else overpay for him, though be happy if you grab him for a few bucks.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Felix Rodriguez		9	0	1.68	1.00		91	27	53	15	80.1
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		12		18		17		3
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	12		11		17		16		3

While we believe that he shouldn't complain about his role after signing a long-term deal, FRod does display more potential to close than perhaps any other setup guy or middle reliever in baseball. He's now earned over $10 each of the last two years after going for a couple bucks in the draft. He carries some risk as the Giants appear committed to Nen and his contract makes him attractive in trade, but as I suggested with Nen, San Francisco could save several million dollars and lose very little in the bullpen by dealing Nen and promoting Rodriguez. If you can draft him anywhere under double-digits, he'll be a good buy for 2002.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
John Rocker		2	19	3.09	1.28		36	16	25	11	32.0
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	11		11		16		16		32
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	9		10		13		14		23

Many owners won't realize how well he pitched before the trade, leaving him as a likely bargain for 2002 in most leagues. All that really happened in the second half is that his walk rate shot up, and with an increasingly solid Texas defense, he shouldn't need to worry about anything other than placing his fastballs over the plate. We had picked him up in Challenge the week before he was dealt, since we didn't expect that anyone besides maybe Montreal would actually trade for him, one of the many closer errors that kept us just out of the top 100 in our first year of participation.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff Fassero		4	12	3.42	1.21		79	23	66	28	73.2
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	11		11		16		15
2001 Age: 38	5x5:	10		10		15		15

I'm thankfully able to tell you what you want to hear: this was a fluke, and it shouldn't happen again. There was no reason to expect Baylor to go to Fassero to close, especially since from everything we've heard, he only got the job because his wife suggested to Becky Baylor that Jeff would be interested in temporarily replacing Gordon. Somehow, against all odds and sensibility, the decision worked out really well for everyone except those of us that owned Farnsworth and Van Poppel and Duncan and Fyhrie and Zambrano and, well, you get the idea. He can likely repeat the qualitative numbers next year, although I'd expect Farnsworth to receive any extra save opportunities.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jose Jimenez		6	17	4.09	1.42		37	22	56	25	55.0
COL Rockies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		11		16		15		15
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	9		9		13		13		12

Once again, trust your instincts and ignore the Colorado pitcher. He's unlikely to see this many opportunities with the superior Todd Jones around in 2002, and even Rick White arguably pitched better in 2001. Jimenez neither has the strikeout rates nor command ratios that you would expect of a closer, and his increase in second half skills should be obscured by the very small sample size of 21 IP. Someone will overbid for him next year, so if you have to own a cheap Rockies' closer, grab Jones. He'll save at least 10 more games than Jimenez.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Curt Leskanic		2	17	3.63	1.36		64	31	63	28	69.1
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	11		11		16		15		22
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	10		10		14		14		16

Another closer that was probably in danger of losing his job, Leskanic responded by posting his best command numbers in years, finally edging over a 2 K:BB ratio in the first half. His arm troubles led to the expected fall in the second half, leading us to expect that Chad Fox, despite even more serious injury concerns, might be a better bet for saves in 2002. The likelihood of both of these guys going down for the year by May is actually fairly good, so at this point I'm not comfortable recommending any potential Brewer closer.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Miguel Batista		11	0	3.36	1.24		90	60	113	52	139.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		15		15
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	10		10		15		15		Res

I know Batista earned most of his value in the rotation, but he did see almost twice as many games in the bullpen, so he's listed with relievers. He neither showed much promise as a starter nor as a reliever, leaving him virtually undraftable for most owners despite potential overvaluation due to his playoff performance. Batista shows no indication of the ability to post an acceptable command ratio, so avoid him unless you see progress in the first half of 2002.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Octavio Dotel		7	2	2.66	1.20		145	47	79	31	105.0
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		15		15		3
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	12		11		17		16		6

If they're smart enough to keep him in relief, Houston will possess the best lefty/righty bullpen combo for the next three seasons. Dotel even stepped up his strikeout rate in the second half, making him a prime candidate to approach $10 as a middle reliever. With the offensive potential of Houston's lineup, he should also approach 10 wins due to middle and late inning comebacks. Despite the Enron factor, he's definitely someone to target for your roster in 2002. Considering that Wagner's elbow could always flare up again, I'd be quite comfortable in even expecting a half dozen saves from Dotel. Chris Berman also labeled him with one of the few good "nicknames" of the last few years when he referred to him as Octavio "Shhh" Dotel.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dave Veres		3	15	3.70	1.29		61	28	57	27	65.2
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		15		15		28
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	9		10		13		14		18

He still appears perfectly capable of closing, so he'll likely be headed out of town considering his salary and Isringhausen's presence in the Cardinal pen. I expect he'll go to Baltimore for someone like Mora or Gibbons that would give St. Louis a deeper and more versatile bench, as well as another potential LF starter. Veres is a great buy up to $20 next year in most leagues if he appears to be closing for another team, although his value will only by a third of that if he remains in St. Louis.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dave Weathers		4	4	2.41	1.15		66	34	65	23	86.0
MIL / CHC		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		14		14		Res
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	9		9		12		12

While he won't see this much success in 2002, please remember that he was perhaps the best reliever in baseball for the first half of 2001. We even selected him as the Brewers' representative for the All-Star team, as he was the best NL reliever while Sheets didn't even rank among the top thirty or so pitchers. He'll continue to pitch effectively in New York, making him a very good target for a few bucks or less. I'd be quite happy if we could grab him for a buck in the endgame, and he'd look great on any Ultra roster.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
John Smoltz		3	10	3.36	1.07		57	10	53	22	59.0
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	10		10		14		14		17
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	8		9		12		13		12

I realize that he's probably overpayed and that he's at risk for arm troubles, and I really don't care. Smoltz should be fantastic in 2002, and with young starters moving into the Atlanta rotation along with veterans that no longer complete many games, he'll receive a ton of save opportunities. The weak Braves' offense also helps him out since while their starters will leave them ahead in many games, the offense isn't good enough to give them much of a lead. This exact same scenario led to a fantastic season for Jeff Shaw in 2001, and Smoltz is already a better reliever than Shaw. He's a bargain at anything under $30, and you might want to keep going as well over 40 saves might be a reasonable projection if he remains healthy.

Early conclusions: With National League closers, as trite as this sounds, you need to spend money to make money. Solid middle relievers abound in Rodriguez, Dotel, and Farnsworth, but most of these guys should retain their jobs through the end of 2002. You'll need to spend a couple dozen dollars on one of the above pitchers if you want to insure a solid finish in saves, and I've given you a good idea of who to target, avoid, and accept as a second tier option in the above reviews. National League Relievers will continue tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Look at your keeper rosters. Is a pitcher like Rodriguez or Dotel only priced at a couple of dollars? Is there any way you can trade to acquire him? The way to avoid overpaying for middle relievers in the draft is by keeping one or two on your roster going into the auction and then ponying up the cash for a top closer. If you hit on one or your two keepers, you likely have 50-60 saves and a top 3 finish in the category. Offer established offensive players that likely won't exceed their salary by more than a buck or two, especially since similar bargains are always available at some point during every draft.