National League Starting Pitchers below $-4 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

103.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Troy Mattes		3	0	6.00	1.60		26	21	51	30	45.0
MON Expos		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-7		-1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-6		0		-10		0

Mattes showed some promise in the minors in the first half of 2001, but he was unable to carry that limited development up to the majors. He has a low upside since he doesn't strike out many batters and increasing the numbers of homers allowed in the majors doesn't help his case. While he might have value if handled properly in a good organization, he's too risky to draft at this time.

104.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Livan Hernandez		13	0	5.24	1.55		138	85	266	132	226.2
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2		9
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		2		-5		-3		12

Just say "no" to drafting him. Probably someone in your league will take a chance on his wins' upside, despite that he's almost certain to hurt your ERA/WHIP. He strikes out few batters so doesn't help much in 5x5, and with his tremendous potential for injury due to years of overwork, there's no reason for you to select him.

105.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Powell		0	0	18.00	2.67		54	3	5	6	3.0
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-5		0		-9		0

We seem to be assembling a staff of soft-tossers on today's list, as Powell is another pitcher that lacks the ability to strike out more than a few batters every game. As he also walks a couple guys a game, he doesn't demonstrate the necessary command to remain in the majors. Especially if he's pitching in Enron, you'll want to stay away from this guy.

106.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Armando Reynoso		1	0	5.98	1.52		15	13	58	31	46.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-1		-8		-2		Res
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	-7		-1		-11		-1		Res

I'd like to say he has some wins' potential on Arizona, but you know that he'll just find himself on the DL again if he's even recovered from last year's problems. He now allows a ridiculous number of home runs, and without much command or dominance, hitters will continue to tee off on fat pitches in the middle of the plate. He's yet another starter that you won't even want in reserve.

107.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jeff D'Amico		2	0	6.08	1.61		32	16	60	32	47.1
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-2		-9		-2		13
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-7		-1		-11		-1		6

He's the good Jeff D'Amico, the supposedly finally healthy Jeff D'Amico, and the Jeff D'Amico that, according to popular rumor, stood between the Brewers dumping their overpriced strikeout king with him to New York in exchange for a solid leadoff guy and a potentially great lefty starter. They would have saved a bunch of money in the deal but believe that their team appears better in its current configuration. D'Amico has some value going into 2002, but don't expect great things even if he manages to cut his homer rate down to 1 a game. I like him at a buck or three, and even more as a reserve grab, although even if he might have $20 potential in the next year or two, he likely won't be healthy long enough to reach that level.

108.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mike Hampton		14	0	5.41	1.58		122	85	236	122	203.0
COL Rockies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-5		-2		-9		-2		4
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-4		1		-6		2		7

Congratulations to those of you who wisely dumped him around May Day. We never bothered picking him up in the first place, since we had an idea that something like these results would happen by the end of the year. Hampton certainly has good wins' potential, but even as a Cy Young candidate with Houston, he never displayed solid command. Colorado supposedly liked Hampton and Neagle because they determined that Coors' success was predicated on a great change-up. So while Hampton damaged that theory, he couldn't do anything about that "expensive pitchers can't succeed in Coors" "misconception".

109.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Joe Borowski		0	0	32.40	5.40		1	3	6	6	1.2
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-5		-2		-9		-2
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	-8		-1		-12		-2

Borowski received one start, signaling the end of Cub playoff hopes last year when Baylor refused to give Felix Heredia the opportunity. He actually pitched quite well at Iowa last year, so we should have expected Borowski to find more success if given more than 1.2 IP he received in the majors. Blowing a 40-man roster spot in this guy for 5 outs was among the worst of several horrible roster management decisions last season. If he finds another opportunity, wait a start or two before FAABing him, so you probably won't need to save any money for him.

110.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Nick Bierbrodt		2	0	8.22	1.78		17	12	29	21	23.0
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-7		-1		-12		-2

Bierbrodt showed little for Arizona before taking off upon his trade to Tampa. While Bierbrodt obviously retains a high ceiling, the trade benefited Arizona in the short term as Albie Lopez pitched reasonably well for them. Arizona seems determined to rid themselves of every player under 30 on their roster, in the mistake belief that only veterans know how to play baseball. Diamondback fans should savor their title, since while there's a small possibility that they could repeat, they're not likely to see these levels for the rest of the decade.

111.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brett Hinchliffe		0	0	36.00	5.00		2	1	9	8	2.0
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-6		-2		-9		-3
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-8		-2		-13		-2

Hinchliffe appears destined to bounce around as a AAA #2 starter for several more years. He occasionally shows decent command for a season or two, although his upside remains low as he's yet another soft-tosser. Even if he finds a major league job, he's unlikely to pitch with enough consistency to keep it.

112.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ramon Martinez		0	0	4.62	2.04		9	16	16	15	15.2
PIT Pirates		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:S	4x4:	-6		-2		-10		-3		1
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-8		-2		-13		-2		2

Martinez's retirement almost cost me a league championship, since he wasn't able to raise my competitor's ERA and WHIP enough to give me any breathing room up to the last day of the season. He's probably maybe finally done, although he could always make another comeback. While he's certainly young enough to return to the majors considering events like Jose Rijo's return, I doubt that Pedro's older brother will find success as anything other than a right-handed relief specialist, a role he's unlikely to assume after a career of starting.

113.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Pete Harnisch		1	0	6.37	1.84		17	17	48	25	35.1
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-2		-10		-4		5
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	-8		-2		-13		-2		6

Harnisch made a great recovery from depression to give owners a couple more years of nice stats. Unfortunately, that all happened two to three years ago and Harnisch's falling strikeout rates leave his command ratio looking quite depressed. With a drastically rising homer rate, he might be better off just retiring this off-season, as he reportedly threatened before not re-signing with the Reds.

114.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rick Ankiel.		1	0	7.13	2.08		27	25	25	19	24.0
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4		13
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	-8		-2		-13		-2		8

Even when he was walking everyone in sight, Ankiel possessed significant velocity and strikeout skills. If his command returns to previous levels, he will again dominate as he did during his rookie season in 2000. Take a chance on him for a couple bucks if the rest of your league runs away from him, and you may be pleasantly surprised. However, I wouldn't suggest bidding on him unless you have some way to replace him if he doesn't return to his previous levels. In leagues where you're stuck with pitchers that stay in the majors, only risk a buck if you can take the hit on your qualitative pitching stats.

115.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Carl Pavano		1	0	6.33	1.76		36	16	59	30	42.2
MON Expos		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4		4
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-8		-1		-12		-2		5

Pavano started looking rather impressive towards the end of the year once he mostly recovered from arm troubles. He remains at very high risk for a return DL trip, although he also could pitch great if he somehow manages to stay healthy. Split the difference between his probable value and his potential injury-decreased value, and stop bidding at $4.

116.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Paul Rigdon		3	0	5.79	1.66		49	46	86	51	79.1
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4		1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-8		-1		-12		-2		4

Rigdon showed some promise in 2000 before an elbow injury ruined his season. If recovered, he could earn a couple bucks although I remain quite worried about the park effects in Milwaukee. He's likely not worth anything more than a reserve pick even if he breaks camp as the fifth starter.

117.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Carlton Loewer		0	0	24.92	3.69		1	3	13	12	4.1
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-9		-2		-15		-3

No roto owner should be overly concerned about Loewer's injury problems, since he doesn't offer much upside when healthy. He'll never strike out many batters, and the Padres don't need him with all their other pitching depth. Expect him to surface again towards the end of this season, although he'll need to find a team that appreciates injury rehabs, like Cincinnati, before he receives another extended look.

118.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Junior Herndon		2	0	6.33	1.88		14	25	55	30	42.2
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-7		-3		-11		-4
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-9		-2		-14		-3

Herndon keeps ascending towards the majors despite declining statistics at every level, and these results are no surprise considering his recent "progress" towards the majors. His lack of 2001 command bodes very poorly for a positive value in 2002, so even if he rebounds into the Padres' plans, he won't help you this season. Since his strikeout rates are already rather low, I expect he'll be with another team by the end of the year with 40-man roster space becoming quite precious in San Diego.

119.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mac Suzuki		3	0	6.35	1.75		52	48	61	44	62.1
COL / MIL		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-8		-3		-12		-5
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-8		-2		-13		-2

Suzuki will return to Kansas City next season despite the minor detail that Tony Muser almost ruined his career earlier in 2001 by jerking him between the rotation and bullpen. He's historically pitched much better as a starter and might even win a job in the Royals' rotation. I don't believe that he's worth a pickup since his lack of command leaves him at risk for a sudden ERA jump despite relatively solid strikeout rates.

120.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Allen Levrault		6	0	6.06	1.57		80	59	146	88	130.2
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-8		-4		-12		-5
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-8		-1		-12		-2		Res

Levrault put together a nice minor league season back in 1999 before mostly struggling between AAA and the majors over the last two seasons. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him suddenly claim a fifth starter's job and pitch great for a few weeks, although I doubt he possesses the consistency to sustain a high skill level over an entire season. He'd be an interesting Ultra gamble, but I see no reason why most owners should risk a pick-up.

121.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Reith		0	0	7.81	1.79		22	16	56	35	40.1
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-4		-14		-6
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-10		-3		-16		-4

I like Reith as a low minor league pick for next season. He has more potential than someone likely to make the rotation this year like Reitsma, and after another season in the minors, Reith might have developed enough to deserve a significant shot in the Reds' rotation. If he strings together a couple solid starts upon his call-up, whether that occurs in mid-April or mid-September, strongly consider FAABing him for a buck or two.

122.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Don Wengert		0	0	12.38	2.44		4	6	33	22	16.0
PIT Pirates		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-4		-14		-6
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	-11		-3		-17		-5

Wengert somehow found himself in the majors again despite an unimpressive resumé. His potential is based on excellent command and reduced strikeouts, so he really shouldn't hurt you if given an extended opportunity in a low-pressure role like long relief. Of course, since teams mostly use long relief for either prospects, Rule 5 grabs, or overpayed veterans that don't deserve to start, he won't find this opportunity unless some GM has an extra roster spot available.

123.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jose Lima		1	0	7.30	1.75		41	16	77	43	53.0
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-4		-14		-6		2
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-10		-3		-15		-4		2

The few owners that remained stuck with him due to poorly-timed long-term deals breathed a sigh of relief as Limatime headed to Detroit. His command is no longer nearly as good as his peak seasons and his strikeout rate has fallen over 2/9IP. With a horribly increased homer rate and OBA, he'll be lucky to find any more success in a full year in Comerica, especially since even if he can keep the homers down, the increased OBA in Detroit will keep his ERA unacceptably high.

124.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Osvaldo Fernandez		5	0	6.92	1.71		35	33	103	61	79.1
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-9		-4		-14		-6		1
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	-10		-3		-16		-4		3

Fernandez doesn't appear to possess the ability to maintain any consistency of his command over any significant amount of playing time. Without even an acceptable strikeout rate, he really doesn't deserve a major league job at this time. Even if he lucks into a roster spot, you shouldn't pick him up as he'll likely continue to get lit without a sever and improbable upgrade in his skills.

125.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Scott Elarton		4	0	7.06	1.55		87	59	146	104	132.2
HOU / COL		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-12		-7		-18		-9		8
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-11		-3		-17		-5		10

Elarton heads straight from Enron-induced failures coupled with arm problems brought on by sever overuse to Pitcher Hell in Denver. He certainly has the ability to excel even in Colorado, so if you can somehow grab him with just a low Ultra pick or a dollar when you can leave him reserved until he proves his health, he could pleasantly surprise. Since he is just recovering from injury, don't be surprised if he's down in these depths again next season. If he's dealt to Philadelphia for Rolen or Texas for Kapler, his value dramatically increases and he becomes a very intriguing gamble for any owner. Hope for Philly, and see if you can grab him cheaply.

126.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Andy Benes		7	0	7.38	1.70		78	61	122	88	107.1
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-12		-7		-19		-10		1
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-12		-4		-18		-5		8

Benes showed no ability to succeed in either the rotation or the bullpen in a simply horrible 2001 season. His problems seem entirely due to worsening control and gopheritis, as he's maintained a strikeout rate very close to his career average. There's no reason to pick him up at this point, since he'll be lucky to even remain on the Cardinals in long relief, but if he can somehow regain his skills as his health improves, he's still young enough to post very solid roto values. Do not draft him until he shows some of that development, though even if its just during spring training, you'll want to consider a low Ultra pick if he slips that far.

127.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Bohanon		5	0	7.14	1.79		47	47	127	77	97.0
COL Rockies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-13		-7		-19		-10		1
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	-13		-5		-20		-7		Res

Bohanon's problems go far beyond the negative influence of Coors. His strikeout rate appears to be in freefall, heading down to 3.6/9 IP in the second half of 2001. Even in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, he'll be lucky to break even on his statistics, since someone with no command won't succeed even if he's historically a groundball pitcher. There's no reason for you to draft Bohanon for 2002.

National League Relievers will begin tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Buy a sweatshirt if you want to quite smoking. We drove by a Walgreens' Pharmacy last night and saw this on the sign:

Apparently, either one of these ways will help you quit smoking. While this isn't a problem for us, we figured we might mention their suggestion, especially since this is the funniest Walgreens of the couple dozen in the suburbs surrounding us.

A few months ago we were picking up some film, and while waiting in the parking lot, spotted something rather interesting in the rearview mirror.

A little girl was slowly making her way down the sidewalk on her tricycle. She was probably about three or four years old, and she drove her little training-wheeled bike right up under the Handicapped Parking sign on the wall, and parked her vehicle.

About ten seconds later, a boy of about the same age appeared on the sidewalk riding his Big Wheels. He rode right up behind the girl who we assumed was his sister, and proceeded to park his Big Wheels right next to her bike, underneath the Handicapped Parking sign.

We're already chuckling at this point, but then we see a third kid, maybe even a year younger than the others, plodding down the sidewalk in a toddler-sized backhoe. He, of course, pulls right up beside his siblings/co-babysitees/other relatives or friends, parks his backhoe under the Handicapped Parking sign, and gets up, following the others over by the entrance.

We waited another few moments, and about a minute later a gentleman in his 30's walks down the sidewalk, carrying yet another and younger kid, leading them all into Walgreens, and leaving three separate vehicles underneath the Handicapped Parking sign.

Of course, none of them had handicapped stickers, so we were rather surprised when a police car drove by a minute later and failed to ticket these unattended and inappropriately parked vehicles.

So if you're interested, this Walgreens evidently has sweatshirts that will help you to quit smoking. Have a nice weekend.