National League Starting Pitchers with $0 to $-2 PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

52.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Julian Tavarez		10	0	4.52	1.49		107	69	172	81	161.1
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	0		3		0		4		Res
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	1		4		1		6		1

Tavarez is a relatively mediocre pitcher who gets enough ground balls to keep his statistics within an acceptable range for most General Managers. He's never shown the ability to dominate a game, and he also hasn't shown more promise as a reliever than as a starter. Since he fades badly in the second half of almost every season, the Cubs should leave him as the fifth starter until they're ready to work in Carlos Zambrano or Mark Prior, and then either banish him to the bullpen or trade him if possible. He's unlikely to earn much above a buck or two.

53.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dave Coggin		6	0	4.17	1.45		62	39	99	44	95.0
PH Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		3		0		4
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	0		3		-1		5

Coggin also appears to be a relative soft-tosser, so his upside is limited to the consistency of his command and the team behind him. The Phillies seem poised to enter a down cycle, having lost Omar Daal and with Rolen and Person looking to leave at the end of the season. A smart GM could rebuild them with high-ceiling pitching and young offensive talent, but Ed Wade has shown little ability outside of occasionally converting a mediocre player into a more useful addition. There's no need to bid above a buck or two on Coggin, and if someone else thinks he has more promise, let them have him.

54.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Glendon Rusch		8	0	4.63	1.45		156	43	216	92	179.0
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		3		0		4		10
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	3		5		3		8		15

Whether he stays in New York or heads elsewhere, Rusch will post a value at least in the mid-teens in 2002. His 2001 statistics were artificially-inflated by an unreasonably high hit rate, especially if you subscribe to Voros McCracken's study from a year ago wherein he postulated that a pitcher's OBA was basically completely random from year to year. With an improved defense behind him in New York, Rusch should theoretically see a return to more normal levels, and you should be happy with the results if you can grab him in single-digits.

55.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
James Baldwin		3	0	4.20	1.35		53	25	82	37	79.1
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		3		0		4
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4

Baldwin pitched much better after the trade, finally showing some of his best skills in years. He doesn't possess significant upside, but he certainly owns the possibility of a 15-win season with decent run support. You'll have to hope to just break even in the qualitative categories, and even if he can help a little with ERA/WHIP, he's not likely to sustain any such success. Decrease his value a couple dollars to a flat buck if he goes back to the AL, and hope some closet White Sox fan retains unrealistic expectations of JB.

56.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Carlos Hernandez		1	0	1.02	1.02		17	7	11	2	17.2
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:S	4x4:	0		2		-1		4
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	-2		2		-4		3

Hernandez appeared on the verge of giving the Astros a lefty alternative with great command for the playoffs until an arm injury derailed his arrival. They've done a good job of keeping his workload low, so while he might see more time in the minors, as long as they can limit him to about 180 IP, he shouldn't be in serious danger of another injury. He has great off-speed stuff that actually allows him to post both great strikeout rates and K:BB ratios, so try to grab him if he's available in your draft. While he could break out like Oswalt, he's more likely to take a few years to establish himself like a young Mike Hampton. I think its really cool that he's a switch-hitter.

57.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dave Mlicki		7	0	5.09	1.36		49	33	85	49	86.2
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		2		-1		3
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4

Mlicki hasn't shown much roto potential since his time with the Mets back in 1997. All he offers in 2002 is some wins' potential with a larger chance of destroying your qualitative numbers. With the multitude of young and/or high-skills pitchers likely available in next year's draft, let someone else shoot for his half dozen wins.

58.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bruce Chen		7	0	4.87	1.40		126	59	146	79	146.0
PHI / NYM		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	0		2		-1		3		12
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	1		4		1		6		16

Chen's difficulties can be almost entirely attributed to inconsistency brought on by unacceptably high homer rates. Larry Bowa tired of his antics in Philly, and the Mets appear ready to deal him for more offense in the outfield. I'd be concerned if he lands in a very hitter-friendly park like Texas, although he could earn close to $20 in San Diego. He's definitely someone on which to gamble several dollars hoping for a breakout year, but don't be surprised if he doesn't earn you much profit for another year or two. He's still extremely young, and he's also at some burnout risk due to overwork by Atlanta when he was younger.

59.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Pedro Astacio		8	0	5.09	1.39		144	54	181	96	169.2
COL / HOU		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		2		-1		3		1
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	2		5		2		7		6

Astacio was easily the best pitcher available on this winter's free agent market and the only real "ace". If he's recovered from his arm troubles as current reports indicate, he might even pick up some Cy Young votes next year as long as he doesn't return to Colorado. Even if he does head back, he's just as likely to earn $10 due to good wins and average ERA/WHIP, and if he can earn $10 in Colorado, imagine his potential as the top right-hander in the Mets' rotation. Pay for this guy next year; you won't be sorry.

60.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Nelson Figueroa		4	0	3.94	1.48		61	37	95	39	89.0
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	0		2		-1		3		Res
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4

Figueroa has good immediate potential despite little upside since he doesn't overpower hitters, and instead relies on solid command to keep his numbers low. The Phillies need to leave him in the #4 slot to let him just air it out for 200 IP this season. If the results are good, they'll have a cheap middle-of-the-rotation starter for a few years, and if not, he's just another mediocre pitcher with wasted potential. I wouldn't want to own him for more than a couple bucks, and his value goes down if Rolen goes.

61.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Olsen		0	0	1.20	0.87		13	2	11	2	15.0
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-1		3
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-3		2		-5		3

Olsen shows more promise than any Marlin pitching prospect besides Josh Beckett. He's a little old for a traditional prospect, but he's had great command at every level of the minors and finally showed excellent dominance at AA this season with 144:21 K:BB in 154.2 IP. He's probably the Marlins future #4 starter behind Beckett, Penny, and Dempster, so definitely target this guy in your minor league drafts, since he'll provide a nice midseason boost when they manage to trade Clement.

62.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Lance Davis		8	0	4.74	1.49		53	34	124	56	106.1
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-2		3
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		3		-3		4

Davis only strikes out a little over four hitters a game, an unacceptably low rate for most pitchers. He doesn't show much long-term promise, especially since both the Cinergy changes and the approaching Great American Ballpark look to play as hitters' parks over the next few years. While he'll have some success at the end of the Reds' rotation, you probably shouldn't take a chance on him, and I wouldn't even risk bringing him up for a buck and getting stuck with him.

63.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chuck Smith		5	0	4.70	1.41		71	35	89	46	188.0
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-2		3		8
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4		9

Smith finally got his big break after almost a decade bouncing around the minors, an opportunity cut short by an expected arm injury considering his sudden rise in workload of 100 IP between 1999 and 2000. The Marlins should give him another chance as their fifth starter since he's actually cheaper and better than Matt Clement despite several more years of age, although they're more likely to stick with youth and put Smith in the pen at best. He could be as valuable an asset as Kevin Jarvis in the right situation, and we need to hope that Florida will be smart enough to use his skills. He's only worth a buck until we know he has a guaranteed role.

64.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dennis Springer		1	0	3.32	1.11		7	2	19	7	19.0
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		2		-2		2
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	-4		1		-6		2

Springer should see these yearly stat lines for another ten years as one of the few established knuckleball pitchers in the upper minors and majors. He'll see these call-ups whenever teams need some filler IP and his K:BB has been above 1. There's no need to grab him as he won't receive more than a few innings unless the team in question is so desperate that they won't provide enough offense for his value to be above zero.

65.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Sterling Hitchcock		2	0	3.32	1.32		15	3	22	7	19.0
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-1		1		-3		2		2
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	-3		1		-6		2		2

Hitchcock showed just enough in his comeback to earn a trip to New York and a two-year extension. His arm problems could flare up again if overworked, but he there's no reason he can't return to a value in the low teens. The Padres should have been able to get more for him, especially since they waived Brett Jodie a couple weeks ago, although he still served the organization well in their 1998 Championship bid.

66.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bobby Witt		4	0	4.78	1.41		31	25	36	23	43.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-1		1		-3		2
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	-3		2		-5		3		1

Witt may finally be at the end of the line that saw him slip from an acceptable middle-of-the-rotation starter to an end-of-the-rotation guy whose manager didn't trust him out of the bullpen in the World Series. Even if he comes back for another season, he won't have any value for your team. At least he finally won a ring.

67.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Andy Ashby		2	0	3.86	1.29		7	1	14	5	11.7
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-3		2		12
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	-4		1		-7		1		11

Even if Ashby is somehow healthy after barely pitching once signing his long-term deal, you should let someone else take a chance on him. His skills have looked rather poor for a few years, and there's no reason to expect an immediate uptick after missing practically a full season. Someone else will overbid on him even as just an injury-sleeper, and he's the last pitcher I'd want to own from probably the entire Dodger staff due to his downside even below this value.

68.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Mark Gardner		5	0	5.40	1.39		53	34	93	55	91.2
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		1
2001 Age: 39	5x5:	-3		2		-5		3		2

Even if Gardner somehow returns in 2002, he offers little promise due to his age and weak skills. He relies on a good defense for almost all his outs, but with an increasing number of gopherballs and slipping command, his potential half dozen wins aren't worth the risk. Let him pass if you see him on a spring roster.

69.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Jennings		4	0	4.58	1.55		26	19	42	20	39.1
COL Rockies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-4		1		-6		2

Jennings finally began to fulfill his potential as a former first round pick. His command finally slipped in the majors after consistent minor league levels around 3 K:BB. He likely won't earn much value in Colorado for a few years, and he also should be prime trade bait to acquire a 3B and/or cleanup hitter. Remember that he could earn $10 anywhere else in the majors this season, but he just hasn't shown enough to warrant a Colorado pickup.

70.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ryan Dempster		15	0	4.94	1.56		171	112	218	116	211.1
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		15
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	1		4		1		6		20

Dempster really burned his owners last season, compiling some very unfriendly numbers for those that weren't able to keep him cheaply. He remains at risk of injury due to overwork at a young age, but he could also stay healthy and return to his 2000 form, earning close to $20. Split the difference and grab him for anything under double-digits, since he should be able to establish himself as a solid #3 starter for years to come.

71.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ruben Quevedo		4	0	4.61	1.52		60	30	56	29	56.2
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-3		2		-5		3

Baylor and Acosta did their best to destroy his arm during a few appearances in Chicago in 2000. He survived and thrived in 2001, possibly because he might be a few years older than his listed age, indicating his arm's ability to take the increased workload. They never should have traded him for a good middle reliever considering the weak starting depth of the organization at the trading deadline, especially with several bullpen candidates likely to pitch as well as Weathers. So basically the Cubs dealt Quevedo and a AA OF for two months of Weathers, a high-ceiling A+ prospect in Roberto Miniel, and a 1st round pick provided courtesy of the New York Mets. We also had the misfortune of drafting him in a keeper league right before the league outing to Miller Park, where he was shelled in his Brewer debut as part of a career day for Wes Helms.

Despite these irregularities in his career, he retains a very good ceiling for the next several years. Both his command and dominance are potentially excellent, and all he'll need is average run support to win in double-digits every season. He's probably a good buy at anything under $10, and if you have an open keeper slot, please make us an offer in either of the two leagues where we'll carry him into next season under $7.

72.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Odalis Perez		7	0	4.91	1.54		71	39	108	52	95.1
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-2		2		-4		3		2

Jess accidentally drafted Odalis Perez for next season's Arizona Challenge team, a "mistake" that should help her win the league when the Braves keep him as a second lefty starter over the right-handed Jason Marquis and Perez wins 12 games as the #5. He's certainly shown flashes of brilliance in the past, and after a superb winter league performance, seems poised to soon replace Glavine as the Braves' best lefty. He could earn anywhere between $-5 and $15, but I believe he'll turn a profit on anything around or below a $5 salary.

73.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jimmy Haynes		8	0	4.85	1.51		112	78	182	93	172.2
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		Res
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4		Res

The Brewers grabbed Haynes in the Cirillo deal when they could have acquired Justin Miller, who will establish himself as a capable #3 starter for Toronto this season. Haynes has never even seen the average dominance and command levels he posted in 1997 during his time in Milwaukee, and his only real purpose is to provide a slightly below-average innings' eater for a team needing to shield young pitching from overwork. Milwaukee wisely non-tendered him, as he's only worth a couple hundred thousand at the moment considering there are at least a dozen AAA pitchers with far superior skills just waiting for a chance at a fifth of Haynes' major league service time. Avoid him unless he ends up in Detroit, where he might manage to be worth a dollar if their defense improves.

74.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tomo Ohka		1	0	4.77	1.37		31	10	65	29	54.2
MON Expos		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	-4		1		-7		2

We were burned by Ohka like the rest of you after Montreal acquired him in the Urbina deal, but don't give up on him quiet yet. His command is still quite good, and his inflated numbers north of the border seem due largely to bad luck. I wouldn't gamble more than a couple bucks on him, although a $10 value wouldn't be out of the question if he receives any run support.

75.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Anderson.		4	0	5.20	1.40		55	30	156	77	133.1
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		10
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	-5		1		-8		1		13

Anderson just can't appear to throw the ball by anyone. He slipped under 4 K/9 in 2001, and he's shown no signs of a rebound. You simply can't take the chance on him with his current skills. Enough other owners should still remember his former upside so that he'll fetch a few dollars, although I wouldn't want to own him right now under almost any circumstances.

76.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jamey Wright		11	0	4.90	1.54		129	98	201	106	194.2
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	-2		1		-4		1		1
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4		2

While Wright is basically an innings' eater similar to Haynes, he's at least shown some potential to strike out a few batters every game. You shouldn't draft him until he displays a sudden drop in his walk rate while maintaining some dominance, and if he doesn't ever show that particular skill, leave him to the Brewers' fans in your league. There's no reason for Wright to be drafted in most league given his current difficulties.

National League Starters will continue tomorrow with pitchers below $-2 i.e. the guys you shouldn't have owned.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Unlike the couple dozen high-ceiling guys in yesterday's column, many of today's pitchers offer little roto potential without a dramatic increase in either command or dominance. In the endgame, you need to target dollar pitchers who either show great command with few strikeouts, or if possible, those with both high strikeout and walk rates. A great example of someone falling into the later category is Kyle Farnsworth, who dropped his walk rate almost in half by only pitching about an inning every two days. I recommended a similar move to the pen for A.J. Burnett, but there's also the possibility that these pitchers could suddenly gain that extra command and develop into super-prospects like Nick Neugebauer. If you play Ultra or have a sizable taxi squad, try to balance between these two pitching types to maximize both the potential and stability of your roster.