National League Starting Pitchers with Single-Digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

23.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Todd Ritchie		11	0	4.47	1.27		124	52	211	103	207.1
PIT Pirates		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		9		11		12		7
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	9		9		13		13		8

I'm concerned that he can't seem to keep his strikeout rate above 6/9IP, but his other numbers appear relatively stable. Nothing suggests either a breakout 2001 or regression back to pre-Pittsburgh levels, and the move to Chicago will allow his wins to increase due to a superior offense and deeper bullpen. I'd expect a solid performance from Ritchie in Comiskey, possibly approaching $20 if everything breaks his way.

24.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Steve Trachsel		11	0	4.46	1.24		144	47	168	86	173.2
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		8		11		12		4
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	10		10		14		14		3

Trachsel is one of the more notoriously inconsistent pitchers in baseball, and he added to that legend by getting demoted to the minors in first half and then keying the Mets' partial comeback in the second. He could win 15 or more if they just leave him in the #4 slot and provide him with good run support. More likely, he'll continue his Jekyll-Hyde impression in even-odd years as both his strikeouts and command fall below decent levels. Try to grab him for $5 or so, but I wouldn't advise gambling much more than that.

25.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
A.J. Burnett		11	0	4.05	1.32		128	83	145	78	173.1
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	8		8		11		12		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	9		9		13		13		2

Burnett's a great litmus test to see if you approve of owning pitchers with nipple rings. He pitched one of the sorriest no-hitters in recent memory, and despite improving throughout the year, I think he's two years away from double-digit value. Given his potential dominance in brief appearances including well over a strikeout per inning in his first inning of an appearance, the Marlins might consider moving him the bullpen to take advantage of this impressive K/9. This move would let them deal the overrated and overpriced six-fingered-man-who-killed-Inigo-Montoya's-dad and also open up a rotation spot for another prospect with a higher ceiling. Burnett even has the appropriate swagger for a closer, so tuck this idea away for the second half of the season.

26.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Jarvis		12	0	4.79	1.23		133	49	189	103	193.1
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	7		8		10		12
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	9		9		13		13

Jarvis can pitch effectively due to excellent control, but his K/9 is only average at best and he's a bit gopher-prone. There's no reason that he can't earn about this much for the next year or two as the "veteran" on the Padres' staff, although expect him to be dealt no later than the 2003 trade deadline to open up space for youngsters. Many owners don't realize how good Jarvis has looked in the minors, so be ready to take advantage of their lack of research for perhaps even anything below double-digits.

27.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Schmidt		13	0	4.07	1.32		142	61	138	68	150.1
PIT / SF		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		8		10		12		1
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	9		9		13		13		1

Many people might continue to ignore him, assuming that he's an injury risk and won't "fulfill his former Braves' potential." Pony up the necessary money for Schmidt, and accept comments graciously after he posts a $20+ season. The Giants have an improved offense and deep bullpen, and Schmidt will combine with Ortiz to form a nasty 1-2 punch even against some relatively good teams in that division. Twenty wins are very reasonable, but target 16 and hope for more. I'll be shocked if he goes even in the high teens, and that's a good price to pay for his potential over the next few seasons.

28.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Shane Reynolds		14	0	4.34	1.34		102	36	208	88	182.2
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		8		10		11		6
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	8		9		12		12		7

Reynolds was perhaps my favorite sleeper right until he started getting injured while moving into Enron. He seems to have regained his control from 1999, but his strikeout rate remains unacceptably low for such a great hitters' ballpark. He'll win a dozen games if he stays healthy, though don't be too upset if his qualitative numbers aren't too friendly.

29.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jason Bere		11	0	4.31	1.32		175	77	171	90	188.0
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	7		8		9		11
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	10		10		14		14		Res

Bere not only rebounded back to his pre-injury form of the early 90's, he actually showed the best skills of his career as part of the Amazing Cub Strikeout Staff. He even improved in the second half, indicating that he might be able to keep this up for a few more years. I don't expect he'll be with Chicago for too long considering the number of great pitching prospects soon to arrive in the majors to stay, but he can easily repeat or even improve upon this performance next season. He's a great buy under $6 if you don't live around Chicago.

30.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Lawrence		5	0	3.45	1.23		84	34	107	44	114.2
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		9		10
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	7		7		10		11

Baseball Prospectus rated Lawrence as the 40th best prospect prior to last season as an example of someone who could be quite good despite lacking great "tools", a decision that seemed to rankle more traditional scouts. He fulfilled this ranking by delivering the second best roto performance of any rookie starter in the NL. Lawrence offers great upside for next year with his fantastic control, and he should easily pick up a dozen or more wins considering the improving Padres' offense. I'd consider drafting him at anything up to the teens, though you should be able to get him for a lot less.

31.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tony Armas, Jr.		9	0	4.03	1.38		176	91	180	88	196.2
MON Expos		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	6		7		8		10		2
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	9		9		13		13		2

Armas finally showed off an impressive set of skills in the second half as his strikeout rate approached 1/IP. He's a quality #3 pitcher headed upward, if he can establish more consistency in his performance. I'm concerned about overwork, so you might want to discount your expectations or even consider dealing him in the second half if he starts fading a little.

32.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Terry Adams		12	0	4.33	1.36		141	54	172	80	166.1
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		7		9		2
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	8		8		11		12		Res

Adams established himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter after a half decade as a "closer of the future". He has the ability to help with strikeouts, but I remain concerned about such a sudden increase in workload after so much time in the pen. He'll have success wherever he lands for 2002, as he wasn't helped that much by the advantages of Dodger Stadium.

33.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Dustin Hermanson		14	0	4.45	1.39		123	73	195	95	192.1
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		7		7		9		8
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	7		8		10		11		8

Felipe Alou might have had the right idea to put him back in the pen. His K/9 has slipped a lot from his early Montreal days, and he shows potential as a reliever. However, he also turned his year around in the second half and could win over a dozen games in Fenway. His relatively high homer rate could represent a problem, so I'd probably bid him right up $10 and then watch someone else overpay for him.

34.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Omar Daal		13	0	4.46	1.37		107	56	199	92	185.2
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	5		6		7		9		2
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	7		7		9		11		8

Daal had a great rebound from his 19 losses in 2000 to provide the Phillies with a solid veteran lefty for much of the season until Larry Bowa stopped trusting him in the second half, an opinion likely formed from his increasing walk rates. He should pitch great in Los Angeles, and if you can grab him cheap from owners remembering the 2000 disaster, you should have a nice little bargain on your hands. His skills aren't great, but remember that lefty starters often mature later then other pitchers, so he's likely just entering his prime now.

35.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Elmer Dessens		10	0	4.48	1.35		128	56	221	102	205.0
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	5		6		7		9		1
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	7		8		10		11		3

In his second year back from Japan, Dessens seems to have remembered the skills that enabled him to find success outside of the US. His ERA was artificially inflated due to a high number of homers, but I find it more likely that he'll repeat this year's statistics in 2002 rather than show much improvement. A healthier and more consistent offense will allow his wins to edge up, although I wouldn't expect him to hit double-digit value.

36.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kirk Rueter		14	0	4.42	1.43		83	66	213	96	195.1
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		6		6		8		1
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	6		6		8		9		3

Rueter's value remains almost entirely derived from consistent win totals due to an above average offense behind him while playing in a pitchers' park. Any breakout that you might expect from a late-developing lefty does not seem supported by his skills, so let someone else take the chance on him unless you're completely win-desperate. He could easily post this much negative value with a little bad luck, and I don't like to own pitchers who possess that much potential volatility.

37.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Adam Eaton		8	0	4.32	1.27		109	40	108	56	116.2
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		6		6		8		4
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	6		7		8		10		6

He'll likely miss the entire 2002 season while recovering from arm surgery, but Eaton made great strides in his performance before he went on the DL. His strikeout rate was headed towards one per inning and his walk rate even dropped, all positive indicators point to a future breakout. He's still quite young and fits in nicely with the Padres' other promising prospects, so grab him for a buck or two in your keeper leagues, fill his spot with a middle reliever with good skills for this season, and then enjoy two more years of double-digit value.

38.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Bud Smith		6	0	3.83	1.22		59	24	79	36	84.2
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		6		5		8		Res
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	5		6		6		8		Res

Smith stepped right into the majors without missing a beat from his minor league performance. He'll never be a great strikeout guy since he's not a hard-tosser, but he has the potential to give you close to 200 well-above-league average innings. I'm concerned about his workload at such a young age, although there's little reason to be worried as long as they keep his pitch counts low and his total IP under 200 for the next couple seasons. Expect high win totals with a great offense behind him, and don't be shy about bidding into double-digits.

39.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
John Thomson		4	0	4.04	1.16		68	25	84	42	93.2
COL Rockies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	5		6		6		8		Res

If you're going to draft a starter in Colorado, Thomson is certainly the one to acquire. He pitched great after returning from his injury, and he could consistently earn values in the teens if he is traded away from Coors. Since he shows more promise than Hampton and significantly more upside than Neagle, consider picking him up in your Ultra leagues and only starting him on the road.

40.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Tapani		9	0	4.49	1.34		149	40	186	84	168.1
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	7		7		10		11		3

Tapani increased his skills to their best levels in years as he likely pitched his last season. He still has the ability to provide over a hundred innings of league-average work to a team needing a veteran backup for young starters, so somebody like Minnesota should attempt to keep him in the game for another season. I'm glad he's leaving Chicago, as he made some very disparaging comments around the firing of Oscar Acosta, a decision that any smart Cub fan thoroughly supported. Acosta showed a hatred for young pitchers while allowing the abuse of guys like Kerry and Ruben Quevedo during his two-year tenure. He has no business coaching young pitchers without knowing their pitch counts, and Tapani's departure leaves a welcome hole at "veteran curmudgeon" on the Cubs' bench.

41.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brian Tollberg		10	0	4.30	1.35		71	25	133	56	117.1
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	4		5		5		8		1
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	5		6		7		8		5

Tollberg appears to be Brian Lawrence with five additional years of age. His strikeout rate isn't wonderful, but his control is so good that his other "problems" don't appear to matter. He's a great #3 or #4 starter for most teams in the league, and he'll post double-digit values whether he stays in San Diego or actually gets traded to the Mets.

42.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
David Williams		3	0	3.71	1.27		57	45	100	47	114.0
PIT Pirates		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	4		5		5		8
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	4		5		6		8

Williams had no business in the majors last season considering both his age and previous "success". Despite any positive statistics from 2001, all indications are that his value will fall rapidly when exposed to a second look at most of the league. Do not acquire him unless you like extreme longshots and won't be seeing his occasional-to-frequent pastings at the hands of any offense willing to wait for a good pitch.

43.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Shawn Estes		9	0	4.02	1.43		109	77	151	71	159.0
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	3		5		4		7		2
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	5		6		8		9		6

Estes seems far from recovered from his consistency troubles, though he appears be gaining consistency at a much lower level of skill than he showed at the beginning of his career. I don't understand why New York dealt two very useful potential starters to pick up someone who arguably is only good enough to be a fifth starter on most teams. He retains significant potential, but I'm looking to 2003 or 2004 for a real return to form from Estes, as he just didn't show enough in 2001 to make me want him on my team.

44.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Eric Gagne		6	0	4.75	1.25		130	46	144	80	151.2
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		4		7		1
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	6		7		8		10		1

The Dodgers seem to have come to their senses and will leave Gagne in their rotation for the foreseeable future. He could easily post a value approaching $20 next year with any offensive support. Grab him if the other owners in your league appear hesitant after a couple years of mixed success, and you'll be pleasantly surprised at the results.

45.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Millwood		7	0	4.31	1.33		84	40	121	58	121.0
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		4		7		18
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	4		5		6		8		18

While everyone seems to be focusing on Atlanta's three veteran starters and the prospects of Marquis and Odalis Perez, Millwood appears poised for a very strong comeback now that he's worked past his arm problems and inconsistency. I expect him to easily hit double-digits next season with the prospects of a higher value if Atlanta can manage to score some runs behind him. He very well might be their #2 starter by the end of the year, so if everyone seems a bit flummoxed by his lack of development, now might be a good time to acquire him.

46.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Albie Lopez		4	0	4.00	1.21		69	24	74	36	81.0
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	3		5		3		6
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	4		5		5		7

Jess doesn't appreciate my reversal of opinion on Lopez's skills, but I'm comfortable admitting when a player suddenly returns to a decent roto value after a few years of very weak skills. Albie's Arizona performance looks very promising for future success especially since he's still somewhat young and has displayed both good command and dominance in the recent past. He could easily pitch as well as John Burkett under Mazzone's tutorage, so be willing to bid up to double-digits to acquire someone who should be a decent third or fourth starter on most any roto staff.

47.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brandon Duckworth		3	0	3.52	1.25		40	29	57	27	69.0
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		2		6
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	3		4		3		6

Duckworth was another of several rookies that advanced to the majors with little diminishment of any skill. He had some problems in the second half but those were likely due to an increase of 50 IP from 2000. While I suspect some consistency troubles, he's quite likely to hit double-digit value for the next several years, especially if Philly can replace Rolen through upgrading a couple lineup slots like 1B and CF.

48.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Ben Sheets		11	0	4.76	1.41		94	48	166	80	151.1
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	2		4		2		5		5
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	4		5		5		7		8

I'd only bid a couple of bucks for him since I don't trust any Milwaukee pitcher when it comes to injuries. I expect Sheets could earn up to $10 in 2002, but there's no reason for you to take that risk when so many other pitchers will likely be cheaper in the draft. Some of that Probable-ROY pixie dust from last season should still be attached to his aura, so step back as Milwaukee fans drive his bidding into double-digits, and consider him a mid-season trade target when he's only managed three wins in front of another very weak Brewer offense.

49.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Luke Prokopec		8	0	4.88	1.34		91	41	146	75	138.1
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		3		1		5		1
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	2		5		2		7		Res

While Los Angeles kept the right starter with more strikeout upside, Prokopec could thrive once left alone in the Toronto rotation. He'll struggle for the first few months as he adjust to the AL and tries to keep his homer rate low, but he should really improve in the second half of 2002 on his way to possibly even double-digit value next season. Unless he's lighting up spring training, avoid him for the draft above a couple bucks and look to deal for him in the middle of the season from a likely dissatisfied owner.

50.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Josh Beckett		2	0	1.50	1.04		24	11	14	4	24.0
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		3		1		5		Res
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	-1		3		-2		4		Res

Wow! Beckett appeared almost as dominant in the majors as he was in the minors in 2001. I really hope Florida has the intelligence to send him back to AAA for two months to let his arm mature, make sure he's past his injury troubles, and more importantly, delay his arbitration and free agency for another season. Once he's brought up in 2002, I don't expect he'll be seeing the minors any time soon. He's certainly worth a double-digit bid at the draft if the Marlins keep him, and there's no reason he couldn't be among the top ten or so pitchers in the league based on his MLE. He should be one of your top minor league trade targets if his owner will consider parting with him.

51.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Juan Cruz		3	0	3.22	1.28		39	17	40	16	44.2
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	1		3		1		4
2001 Age: 20	5x5:	-1		3		-2		5

Cruz might even be a better immediate buy than Beckett considering the Cubs' offense should enable him to win more games over the next year or two. I'm quite concerned that Baylor will run him into the ground by the end of the year, so if someone occasionally yells "PITCH COUNTS" in his ear, maybe Groove will get the message. He pitched really well in almost twice as many major league innings as Beckett, but he may be slightly underexposed considering his potential is quite similar at the moment. My Mom thinks he looks 40, so don't be shocked if you hear that he might be a year or two older than his listed age, a development that would bode well for his health as he begins to rack up innings in Chicago.

National League Starters will continue tomorrow with pitchers down through $-2.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Your National League team should have at least three of the starters on today's list, and as many as six on your weekly staff. Set aside about $4 or $5 for each, and wait until the bargains start rolling in as the draft starts wrapping up. Rueter, Eaton, Thomson, Williams, and maybe Estes are the only ones out of these 29 guys that I don't like below $6, and most owners will likely forget about at least one of the Padres' potential bargains.