Welcome to Rotohelp's first Pitcher Month, beginning a fashionably late seven days right as most schools open for spring semester. Our plan is to spend a week each on NL starters, NL relievers, AL starters, and AL relievers. Every week, I'll spend three to four days on major leaguers depending on how much time I have for each column, and then a day each covering the top prospects in each division.

We'll use a simple formula to separate starters from relievers to make these reviews easier to use. If a pitcher appeared in the majors and started in half or more of his appearances, he's listed as a starter; everyone else will be left in the roto bullpen. The same general premise will be used to divide minor leaguers, so if a pitcher's total games started between all levels is at least half of his total appearances, he'll be listed with starter prospects for simplicity. Since most pitchers will shift between starting and relieving at least once, this delineation is more just to group the pitchers than any objective evaluation of their skills. All such comments will remain in the review.

As always, please e-mail me with questions, and I'll try to address your missives as soon as possible. Now that the holidays are over, we hope to be more consistent in posting earlier in the day and I should also have the time for slightly more detailed commentary, especially for many of the established major leaguers.

National League Starting Pitchers with Double-Digit PDV

Quick Key to the tables:
W = Wins.  S = Saves.  ERA = Earned Run Average (ER*9/IP).
WHIP = (Walks + Hits)/IP aka Ratio.  K = Strikeouts.  BB = Bases on Balls aka Walks.
H = Hits.  IP = Innings Pitched.  P = Pitches.  B = Bats.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Randy Johnson		21	0	2.49	1.01		372	71	181	69	249.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:R	4x4:	37		30		57		43		35
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	37		32		54		45		37

Despite his advancing age, nothing in his skills set suggests even the slightest deterioration of his abilities. Assuming he remains healthy, a proposition that appears quite likely at the moment, we can expect him to perform comparably to these numbers for the next two seasons or so. I think this was probably his peak strikeout season, since he edged over 13 K/9 for the first time in years, but that will only result in a drop of a dollar or two in 5x5 leagues. I'm quite comfortable bidding up to $40 for this guy, and you'll certainly need to in leagues with any inflation at all.

2.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Curt Schilling		22	0	2.98	1.08		293	39	237	85	256.2
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	32		27		47		38		21
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	31		27		46		39		24

Finally healthy after arm problems resulting from years of abuse, Schilling combined his previous strikeout rate with his best walk rate in years. The major flaw in his game remains an excess number of home runs, and these increasing tater tendencies could hurt begin to hurt him. I don't think he'll repeat these numbers due to the high workload, but his value will still approach $30 next year. If given a choice, spend the extra money to just secure Johnson's services, as he's been far more consistent and healthy over the last several seasons.

3.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Greg Maddux		17	0	3.05	1.06		173	27	220	79	233.0
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	28		23		41		33		32
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	25		22		36		32		29

After stunning critics with an improbable run to a Tony nomination as Leo Bloom in The Producers, Maddux returned to the Braves and dispelled all questions about his adaptability to the "new" strike zone. He cut his walk rate by a third to a flat 1 walk per game, his best rate since 1997. If the Braves' offense ever picks up due to improvement by Andruw Jones, one of the younger players, or even an outside acquisition (as opposed to the problems incurred by the addition of Vinny Castilla), Maddux could easily win 20 games a couple more times. His skills allow him a great margin of error in terms of a relatively low number of strikeouts, so there's still no safer bet in the game among starting pitchers.

4.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Javier Vazquez		16	0	3.42	1.08		208	44	197	85	223.2
MON Expos		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	23		20		34		29		16
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	23		20		33		29		18

Vazquez emerged as a true ace this season after some early troubles, and he likely would have finished 3rd in both roto value and Cy Young balloting if he hadn't missed his last few starts due to a fluke injury while batting. All reports indicate that he'll be perfectly recovered by spring training, and his value could even increase this season if some of the Expos' young position players finally develop some offensive ability. He has compiled a relatively high number of innings at a young age, so he's at noticeable risk for burnout or even arm problems, but until you actually see some skill deterioration, you shouldn't hesitate to take his price over $20. Try to grab him in your keeper leagues, since his salary is likely only in the mid teens, and his actual value could be double that price by the end of the season.

5.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Jon Lieber		20	0	3.80	1.15		148	41	226	98	232.1
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:L	4x4:	21		18		31		20		15
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	20		18		28		25		18

Lieber actually pitched worse in 2001 than 2000, a small fact obscured by an improved Cubs' offense and bullpen adding 8 wins to his total. His success is predicated on stopping right-handers cold, and I think his value will slip a little due to a probable increase from a low .219 BA vs RH. There's no reason not to draft him if you have the opportunity, but I wouldn't feel as comfortable with him as my only "ace" as I would with a pitcher like Vazquez or Morris, whose strikeout capabilities can help them overcome brief slumps.

6.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Matt Morris		22	0	3.16	1.26		185	54	218	76	216.1
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	21		18		31		26		12
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	20		18		30		26		13

With his rich new contract earning him an average of nine million a season, Morris should be set to form a very capable 1-2 punch with Kile at the top of the Cardinal rotation. He's recovered nicely from arm surgery, and he also benefited from less media exposure than the comebacks of Kerry Wood and now Rick Ankiel. A probable sign of future dominance is that his strikeout rate shot up in the second half, indicating the he actually gained strength as the year progressed. I remain concerned about future arm problems, but there's no reason not go to the wall for this guy until an injury actually occurs. Consider yourself lucky if you grab him for under $20.

7.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
John Burkett		12	0	3.04	1.17		187	70	187	74	219.1
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	20		18		30		25		Res
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	20		18		29		26		Res

Burkett put together another great season under Leo Mazzone's tutelage, a year that he can't be expected to repeat considering his age, past performance outside of Atlanta, and a move to Fenway for 2002. His walk rate had almost doubled in the second half due to a largely unacceptable 3.8 BB/9, and I also don't like that he pitched more innings in 2001 than in any year since 1996. He'll still be a valuable acquisition for Boston, especially if they leave him in the #3 or #4 slot behind Pedro, Hermanson, and maybe even Derek Lowe, although I think his value will be in the low double-digits instead of approaching $20. He's at an age where any arm problems could cause him to hang it up for good, although I suspect he'll be okay for another year or two.

8.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Chan Ho Park		15	0	3.50	1.17		218	91	183	91	234.0
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	20		18		29		25		20
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	21		19		30		27		25

We owned him at $3 for next year right up until the moment he signed with Texas. Despite our best efforts, we weren't able to trade Park during the season without compromising a 2001 Championship, so I hope you had better luck in the leagues where you grabbed him cheap in the 2000 draft. He maintained his strikeout rate last year while reducing his walk rate, and even if he gets slightly homer-happy in Arlington, he'll still turn in a value around $20. Considering his 200 IP consistency over his career and lack of arm problems, he's one of safest selections of any 2002 American League pitcher.

9.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Darryl Kile		16	0	3.09	1.29		179	65	228	78	227.1
STL Cardinals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		27		23		15
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	18		17		27		24		19

Kile's ERA drastically improved while his wins and strikeout rate slipped and his WHIP increased. He's a little older than I'd prefer most of my pitchers, but his arm is sound and he's in a very cozy rotation slot ahead of great rotation and bullpen depth. He even has a young and developing offense behind him, so you might see his wins edge up slightly next season. If you can somehow grab him in the high teens, certainly spend the money on him.

10.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Roy Oswalt		14	0	2.73	1.06		144	24	126	43	141.2
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		27		23		Res
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	17		16		25		23		Res

Oswalt would have won the Rookie of the Year award in almost any other year due to his sheer dominance in a great hitters' park. He fulfilled all expectations of him as a top prospect prior to 2001 and then kept on going to produce some great numbers for his owners. His skills are just as good as almost any pitcher above him, he's shown he can pitch great in Enron, and he has both a great bullpen and lineup behind him. Ignore your Enron worries and bid to $20 on him, then hope that his injury troubles don't flare up. Even if they do, his potential is simply too high to avoid bidding on him.

11.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Wade Miller		16	0	3.40	1.22		183	76	183	80	212.0
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		26		23		1
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	18		17		26		24		3

Miller simply doesn't have the command of Oswalt, so hopefully you sold high after his fantastic 2001 debut. He's absorbed a lot of punishment on his relatively young arm, and while Houston has the depth to give him an occasional rest, he may encounter future arm problems sooner than many might expect. I'm not sold on his skill since his K:BB rate was significantly higher than his previous three years of MLEs, and I certainly see some potential for growing pains. Someone else will likely overbid based on their memory of last April, so make sure you let them to force another five bucks on the table.

12.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Russ Ortiz		17	0	3.29	1.27		169	91	187	80	218.2
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	18		16		26		23		2
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	18		16		25		23		11

Ortiz appears to have matured into a staff ace as he finally lowered his walk rate to a reasonable number. His second half looks extremely promising for 2002, and along with Jason Schmidt, he gives the Giants a fantastic pair of power-armed righties to lead their rotation potentially into the playoffs. He's a good buy up to the mid-teens, and his win total might even increase if the Giants find more consistent offense from acquisitions like Reggie Sanders. If his walk rate edges much above 4 BB/9 without a corresponding K/9 increase, be ready to deal him for a lower risk alternative.

13.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Appier		11	0	3.57	1.19		172	64	181	82	206.7
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	16		14		22		20		3
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	16		15		23		21		7

Appier suddenly regained his pre-surgery form, proving to the National League and the New York media the skills we knew he possessed back when the Royals hid his talent from the world with weak offenses and win totals. Of course, the Mets' woeful offense kept his record to a mediocre 11-10, a win total that could have been doubled if they'd kept him and instead foisted Todd Zeile on the Angels. While he could break down again, I suspect he's equally prepared to have a nice run of a few seasons with values in the high-teens.

14.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Brad Penny		10	0	3.69	1.16		154	54	183	84	205.0
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	15		14		22		20		4
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	15		14		22		20		37

Penny took a logical step forward this season, maintaining his strikeout rate while cutting his walk rate almost in half, down to around 2.5 BB/9. If his other skills remain intact, he could jump into the $20 range if Florida's offense ever develops behind him. My main concern is that his arm has tallied a lot of IP for a soon-to-be 24-year-old, so you might look at lower risk alternatives, but if he's available for under $13, he's an automatic buy as a potential ace.

15.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Al Leiter		11	0	3.31	1.20		142	46	178	69	187.1
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	15		14		22		20		19
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	15		14		22		20		21

Leiter was again the second best lefty in the NL last year, a title that he might not be able to maintain due to advancing age and slowly declining skills. His strikeout rate continued to slip in the second half, and his walk rate started edging back up. The Mets are counting on him as their ace, and while he should be mostly fine for 2002, I doubt he can sustain these statistics for more than another year or two at best. If you own him at a good price, begin exploring alternatives, especially if he gets some early press due to good win totals.

16.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Rick Reed		8	0	3.48	1.01		99	17	119	52	134.2
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		12		19		18		13
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	12		12		18		17		12

Reed earned his salary before his trade, and his departure hopefully allowed you to pick up one of the nice second half surprises. His success is based upon average strikeout rates with superb command, a combination he executed perfectly in the first half. While he'll likely see a drop in 2002 due to advancing age and a full year away from Shea, he's still a relatively solid double-digit buy.

17.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Woody Williams		15	0	4.01	1.26		154	56	224	99	222.0
SD / STL		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		12		19		18		7
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	14		13		20		19		13

Williams's value remained relatively low right until his trade, after which his win total shot up, leaving the rest of his stats in the expected ranges and providing sudden second half gains for owners that stuck with him despite early problems. He should easily repeat these numbers, and he could even see a wins' boost due to the superior Cardinals' offense. You shouldn't view him as an ace, but he'll be a very solid complimentary pitcher for your team.

18.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kerry Wood		12	0	3.36	1.26		217	92	127	65	174.1
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	13		12		19		17		14
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	15		14		22		20		18

Wood exploded back onto the scene after two full years removed from his arm surgery, and despite the ever-present injury risk and troubles, his potential remains as high as any pitcher in baseball. We keep suffering as Baylor exposes him to increased pitch counts, and considering Rothschild's track record with Livan Hernandez in Florida, we don't hold out much hope for next year. You might want to let someone else take the risk on him in drafts and auctions, but hold on to him in challenge leagues until his arm actually does break down.

19.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Kevin Brown		10	0	2.65	1.14		104	38	94	34	115.2
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		12		18		17		38
2001 Age: 36	5x5:	12		12		17		17		36

Brown should rebound into the $20s since his skills didn't slip during his arm troubles, although a slight rise in his walk rate concerns me. He'll supposedly be fully recovered by Spring Training, but if someone else wants to take a chance on even a high $20s performance, go spend your money on someone ten years younger. LA's offense is also relatively weak and will deteriorate more if they trade Sheffield, so don't count on excessive win totals even if you do draft him.

20.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Robert Person		15	0	4.19	1.24		183	80	179	97	208.1
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:R    B:R	4x4:	12		12		17		17		5
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	14		13		20		19		12

Person didn't quite fulfill the expectations that many of us placed upon him prior to 2001, but he still showed solid growth with his first full year of a K:BB over 2 since his conversion to starting. He could easily ride these small gains to a few nice seasons, although he has been worked rather hard considering he'd spent much of his career in relief. Philadelphia is reportedly mildly dissatisfied with his progress, so don't be surprised if Person leaves town within a few days of Rolen as they focus both their payroll and development on their emerging pitching prospects like Brandon Duckworth.

21.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Tom Glavine		16	0	3.57	1.41		116	97	213	87	219.1
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	11		11		16		15		20
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	11		11		16		16		23

Glavine appeared completely ambushed by the "new" strike zone, and at his advanced age, there's little hope for a return to $20 status since he was never much of strikeout pitcher in the first place. You should likely be happy if he can even manage a repeat of these stats. Atlanta will need a new #2 to step up soon if they hope to keep pace with the rest of their division, and you'll likely be letting someone else bid $20 on Tommy in 2002 since someone will expect a return to his glory days against all logic.

22.		W	S	ERA	WHIP		K	BB	H	ER	IP
Randy Wolf		10	0	3.70	1.23		152	51	150	67	163.0
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
P:L    B:L	4x4:	10		10		15		15		2
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	12		11		17		16		7

Wolf shows as much potential for a breakout season as perhaps any pitcher in the National League. His walk rate dropped in half in the second half, a solid indicator of future and likely immediate growth. If the Phillies hold on to Rolen for much of the year and contend, Wolf should easily hit a career high in wins. I'm mildly concerned since Terry Francona worked him very hard, so don't be surprised if he occasionally slumps. Target him for around this salary and be quite happy if you manage to grab him.

Early conclusions: if you have faith in one of the top pitchers, bid him to the edge of your budget. There's no compensating for the effect that someone like Randy or Schilling has on your entire pitching staff, and if you believe that a particular top starter will stay healthy and repeat or improve on this performance, you're safe in bidding towards his actual values instead of his draft values. You increase your risk since pitchers are more injury-prone in general, which is the obvious reason for the 65/35 split in value, but you need to find either a $20+ starter or a group of $10+ to win your league. Banking on a veteran starter remains a slightly safer play than hoping for a youth breakout.

National League Starters will continue tomorrow with Single-Digit PDV.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Don't allow me to make football predictions any more and wish us luck with our new couch. As some of you likely noticed, Pittsburgh crushed Cleveland even without their snowbound Bus, so simply ignore my karmic-influenced predictions in the future and instead turn to something more reliable, like perhaps a Magic-8 Ball.