January 6th 2002 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Most of these players are relegated to this last day by virtue of barely playing in the field in the majors this season. A couple of these guy may qualify elsewhere due to switching leagues or technical glitches remitting these players to this group. Here are the last position player reviews from 2001: American League Designated Hitters and National League Pinch Hitters
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. American League Designated Hitters
While Edgar continues to pound the ball with eerie regularity, I don't believe he's assembled a case for a spot in the Hall of Fame. He'll need to continue at this pace for at least two more seasons in order to have over ten years of dominance at his position, and since he's unable to contribute in the field, I believe he needs the extra plate appearance numbers to make his averages more impressive. Although there's little evidence of him "slowing down" other than a small drop in SLG, he's been talking about retirement for years and might finally leave if the Mariners miss the playoffs this season, a possibility considering the strength of their division. I think Martinez constrains your roster flexibility in ways usually difficult to overcome, but he should be good for at least one more year at these levels.
Fullmer's either going to mature into a solid all-around hitter or swing even more so towards an extreme platoon split. I expect him to be dealt from Toronto by the end of the season, since he's both easily replaceable and not worth a high arbitration award. He should bounce back over twenty homers, and if limited to facing only right-handers, his averages will rise. You shouldn't expect much above the mid-teens, but $20 might not be a stretch.
Canseco can certainly still bash when so inclined, so I find it hard to believe that no team will need his services for another couple hundred at-bats. His plate discipline has actually improved over the last few years, so you can expect a BA above .250. Despite his pronouncements to the contrary, he will not be going 30/30 any time soon, especially since he's only stolen more than 29 bases once in his entire career, when he went 40/40 back in 1988. Don't bid above a few bucks, since he's still injury-prone and unlikely to find a full year of at-bats.
LeCroy's value will dramatically increase if he manages to quickly qualify at catcher. The Twins would have kept the Central Division much closer if they'd kept Lawton and let LeCroy DH as Ortiz's injury replacement. Matt has definite offensive potential, although he'll need another few years to grow into his power skills. Thirty homers are a definite possibility by his early 30's, but keep your bids fairly low unless you expect him to find those elusive 500 at-bats.
Ortiz appeared to be headed for a breakout season until he missed half the year due to injury and remained largely ineffective against lefties even when healthy. Minnesota reportedly has no plans to offer him a long-term deal, indicating that he's prime trade bait when some of their hitting prospects reach the majors. I still like Ortiz up to the teens, since he's just reaching his prime, but be wary of a worsening platoon split and/or trade talks.
The only probable non-Hall-of-Famer in the Great Winter Meeting's Trade of a decade ago, Fernandez finishes his career on a slight down note after a very solid seventeen seasons. He likely helped many of us out as a mid-season replacement this year, and despite somewhat weak overall skills like a 64% career SB%, he's been beneficial to teams far more often than the opposite. If he decides to make a comeback, his BB:K is still strong enough to warrant a low speculative FAAB bid if he finds playing time.
Palmer's probably too beset by injuries and weakening skills to merit more than a couple bucks in an auction. His BB:K ratio, always poor, dropped again this season, leaving his averages at unacceptably low levels. He'll likely make it back for a couple seasons of twenty homers, but his days of real contribution to even weak offenses like Detroit are probably over. Let someone else overbid based on past expectations.
Gant re-established himself as a respectable platoon DH after his trade to the AL, and he can likely contribute just enough power to retain Positive Draft Value for another year or two. Since his plate discipline is failing, his speed is gone, and even his power production is dropping, don't expect much from his 2002 season at all. However, be prepared to grab him as a reserve or injury replacement if he lands in a role suited to his talents.
He could step in as Giambi's replacement, but between his injury troubles and general lack of major league experience, I can't see the A's asking him to replace the best offensive player in baseball. I don't see him having value in a full-time role despite his impressive minor league stats. Valdez has plenty of upside as he reaches his prime, although I think his averages would be higher if they at least limited him to a platoon role. If he starts, he's certainly worth a double-digit bid, and he could even have a breakout similar to Mientkiewicz's in 2001.
Jerry Manuel needs to sit Thomas down again on the first day he shows up at Spring Training and plainly explain to him that he will only DH, he will be happy about DHing, and if he even mentions a desire to take the field, he'll find the "diminished skills" clause in his contract exercised following the season. In the current economic climate, Thomas will be lucky to receive half his $10 million a year or so as a one-dimensional free agent, so he needs to realize how nice he has it on the White Sox, especially in such a hitter friendly ballpark. If he looks healthy in the spring, bid to the low $20's on him, and expect him to approach his 2000 numbers.
Detroit inexplicably didn't find a way to keep a Rule Five pick who would likely be starting for them at second or third if he'd remained with the team. Clark has good defense, solid OBP and plate discipline, and even the possibility of emerging power based on his minor league doubles' numbers. He might not find the opportunity with Seattle, but he certainly has the ability to be worth at least several dollars in a full-time job.
Seabol is another of the Yankees' decent upper level hitting prospects. He lacks plate discipline, but based on his current progression and power potential, he could easily "Go Shane Spencer" if given the opportunity in a late season call-up. You probably shouldn't draft him because he's too old to be a prospect and he's likely to depart the organization at the end of the year, although keep him in mind for a FAAB bid if he appears to be replacing a contributing right-handed bat in a corner spot or DH.
Hollins just keeps plugging away at AAA, and the Phillies have rewarded him with an invitation to their 2002 Spring Training. He still has the skills to contribute in a small role, but even in his heydey with the Phillies, he lacked great plate discipline or prodigious power aside from his peak seasons. He's probably too old at this point to receive anything beyond a couple more September at-bats, he can't really play the field, and his plate discipline is too weak for you to expect a decent BA in a limited appearance.
Burkhart could likely provide just as much offense for the Red Sox as Tony Clark, and at only a tenth of Clark's price. He won't likely receive that opportunity since he's a refugee from the independent leagues and is considered lucky to even be earning AAA money. Boston needs to free him soon if they won't use him, since several teams would be happy to take advantage of his offensive skills for the minimal cost. I wouldn't gamble any more than a buck or two on him unless you know he will at least receive platoon at-bats.
HRod seemed to just disappear after the briefest of looks with the Yankees. His skills were already fading when he left the Cubs, but he still has enough left-handed power to be worth a few more NRIs, even if some of those may arrive from the Pacific Rim. There's no reason that he can't put up numbers similar to Troy O'Leary, and while those remain significantly below average for a starter, O'Leary should definitely find some major league time in 2002. Don't bid on Henry unless you're aware of him filling a very specific role, since his plate discipline is weak enough to allow many pitchers to exploit an already weak BA .
Barnes never got untracked from injuries last season in the majors, although he retains significant offensive upside, especially if he can sneak in as a fifth or six outfielder in Colorado. His plate discipline in the minors has always been excellent, so you shouldn't worry about him ever posting an average like this in a larger number of at-bats. His 2000 BA of .351 is more likely given his skills, so definitely bid a few bucks on him if he sticks with the Rockies.
Fernandez took advantage of AAA Salt Lake last year to post ridiculously good offensive numbers, including a .339/.421/.624 BA/OBP/SLG. These averages are great even for the Pacific Coast League, so hopefully Fernandez has earned himself a major league roster spot. Unfortunately, the Cubs dealt for him before they committed 2002 roster spots to Chris Stynes and likely Mark Bellhorn, so Fernandez will be lucky to see much time outside of AAA Iowa. He can certainly contribute as a right-handed power-hitting DH or infielder, so be ready with FAAB if he finds a larger opportunity.
Jaha put his owners out of their misery for good with his retirement in the middle of the season. He has become perhaps the most aggravating player to own since when most of us finally gave up on him after horrendous years in 1997 and 1998, he exploded to earn over $20 in 1999, providing a tidy double-digit profit for his lucky owners. We should have known that those stats were too good to be true as he fell back to earth while ascending in his 30s. At least we won't have to worry about his DL trips any more.
Hill's disappearing act last year was quite a shock considering he still retains the ability to soundly thrash left-handers. While his skills are somewhat prevalent in the upper minors and his salary might be inflated for many teams, he offers very rare power potential even at his somewhat advanced age. You should probably avoid him, since I doubt he'll receive the guaranteed playing time needed to avoid another disaster like 2001.
Baines selfishly talked the White Sox into yet another return visit last season in his futile quest for 3,000 hits, a goal that, if reached, would only leave him as the most prolific batsman never to make the Hall of Fame. He really needs to hang it up instead of harrassing otherwise well-meaning franchise like the Yankees, since he simply does not have skills left to help a major league team. Do not draft him unless your league gives out bonus points for owning players within a few years of AARP membership.
Walbeck will continue to bounce around baseball as a AAA catcher for another few years. His plate discipline is actually above average, so he shouldn't hurt you if needed as a brief fill-in. However, don't expect him to make any positive contributions to your team, and he could always find his BA slipping.
Overbay is yet another of the half dozen players in Arizona's 1B pipeline. Despite a career minor league BA over .340, an OBP around .415, and a SLG around .525, Overbay remains blocked by players like Grace, Colbrunn, Durazo, Delucci, and Cust. He'll likely start at 1B for AAA in 2002, leaving him on target to take over for Grace in 2004. Consider Overbay very strongly with your highest of minor league picks, as he has just as much potential to make an immediate impact in the majors as Durazo or Cust. The only downside to this strategy is that, until Arizona officially designates a replacement, seemingly all of these players could be used as trade bait as the Snakes look to acquire more veteran leadership.
Most of you are familiar with Ward as an acceptable utility fifth outfielder without any real tools. His plate discipline has always been fairly decent, allowing him to be useful as an injury replacement. Since his last substantial playing time two years ago, the only aspect of his situation that's changed is that his advancing age leaves him more vulnerable to sudden negative streaks that can leave an unhealthy impact on your BA.
I'm not sure why Jim Bowden gave Pickering a half week tryout when he knew that he had no long-term future with the club. Maybe he figured that he could find a deal for someone that Syd Thrift failed to properly use or market. Regardless of his travels, Pickering retains immense power potential and the ability to start at 1B or DH for several teams, and hopefully he'll somehow find the needed opportunity in Boston or his next destination.
De la Rosa is a fairly solid defensive infielder who displays enough plate discipline to replace someone like Mike Mordecai immediately. He doesn't have great tools but shows decent speed and even some power potential. I don't expect him to stick with the Expos until the middle of the season, although he even has a small chance to start if they need to trade Orlando Cabrera for financial reasons. While de la Rosa shouldn't hurt you in a small number of at-bats, I likely wouldn't take the chance unless I knew he'd be starting as an injury replacement for Montreal.
Ginter developed into a tremendous prospect in 2000 due to a combination of moving into an extreme hitters' park, normal maturity, and an intense effort to enhance his abilities. I don't think that his skills suggest that he can be more much more than a capable infield backup, although he might have a chance to start this year if Ensberg and Truby struggle. Since his rather sudden improvement didn't continue into 2001, I have doubts as to his long-term prospets, so Ginter's probably not the best of gambles at the moment.
Ryan makes good contact but likely won't receive much major league time due to his somewhat advanced age and weak tools. While his plate discipline is usually fairly good, he hasn't received enough time in the bigs to determine if he'll have any success in a larger role. Now with Oakland, Ryan won't find any additional opportunities since the Athletics have as many potential outfielders as Arizona.
Sefick is a great guy to use as an injury replacement, but I wouldn't waste a draft day pick on someone with very limited potential or position flexibility. While He won't hurt you because of his good plate discipline, he also offers no power/speed upside other than the chance of a half dozen homers or steals if he somehow manages more than a hundred at-bats. He'll see the majors a few more times as a minor league free agent, although I don't expect any organization to show Philadelphia's faith or patience in him.
Even at a relatively advanced 26, Ortega is one of the Cardinals' better offensive prospects, a fact that speaks more to the dearth of St. Louis prospects than Ortega's limited potential. He should be able to hold his own as a fifth outfielder, but he has little shot at starting since he just doesn't appear to have any significant tools. His plate discipline is also quite weak, and he isn't helped by a reputation as somewhat of a night owl and perhaps even a negative influence on younger players. I don't think he'll hurt you for a buck if he makes the team out of spring training, although I'd rather place my money in some of the young speedsters with more upside.
Colorado Rockies
Prospects:
Today's Fantasy Rx: Avoid drafting a pure DH unless absolutely necessary. While they're often good bargains, the limitations that a pure DH places on your roster flexibility usually aren't worth the limited upside of a few dollars of profit. Players are limited to DH duties because they don't have that upside in the field, and you should recognize their limitations by letting someone else choose from the relatively small number of helpful offensive players listed above.
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tim@rotohelp.com. |
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