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January 2nd 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
On the Ninth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Grieve is only going to turn 26 this season, so there's still plenty of time for him to mature into an offensive force. Unfortunately, his 100 point SLG loss, combined with an OBP rise, seems similar to the statistical pattern that led to a lower value for Travis Lee, and his sharp increase in groundball/flyball ratio bodes badly for power redevelopment. I think Grieve might bounce back to twenty homers, but with his lack of speed and defensive ability, he'll not deserve a starting job after another season like 2001.
Okay, so Everett's not the best guy to have around the clubhouse, and his temper seems to have boiled over into his personal life multiple times, but if you can stomach him on your team, he offers a lot of roto potential for 2002. Inconsistent playing time can easily lead to falling skills like these, and I thoroughly expect a very solid rebound since Texas will play him every day, give him some leeway for his personality, and slot him behind offensive forces like ARod and Palmeiro. With the high level of OBP throughout the Texas lineup, Everett should easily set a new high in RBI as long as stays healthy. My main concern is that he's appeared overvalued in many leagues since joining Boston.
Everything about this season should be screaming "career year" at you. Ibanez has been derided by many for years since he has little power and no on-base ability. In 2001, he found plate discipline, leading to a .280 BA and .353 OBP, while also powering himself to a respectable .495 SLG. Nothing in his track record suggests the ability to repeat strongly, so hedge your bets that the new Royal manager (after Muser is fired around MayDay) will be less tolerant of Ibanez's "contributions".
With Vaughn and Grieve as "anchors", Tampa again might have one of the worst offenses in years. While he's always struck out a lot, Vaughn maintains a rather high walk rate, which in turn enables his OBP to support some impressive SLG numbers. Since his SLG has fallen for three straight years, this assumption may no longer work in predicting Vaughn's future. He's at an age where many players suddenly stop producing, and with a low BA already holding his value below $10 in several years, I wouldn't gamble on anything more than .225/20/75/5, especially without 500 at-bats.
After exploding onto the scene like Joe Hardy in 1998, Spencer should have settled in as a power-hitting right-handed platoon OF/DH. Injuries have derailed this process to some extent, but New York appears to remain quite committed to playing him in 2002. By all accounts, they've refused to even consider trading him, and a Spencer/Vander Wal platoon at either LF, RF, or DH should be quite productive. He should be able to even increase his value slightly for next year, so hope you can get him for $5, and perhaps consider paying a few more for a small profit. Please remember that he has little long-term future with the Yankees since Bernie, White, Juan Rivera, and Marcus Thames, not to mention any other potential acquisitions, all have priority for playing time.
The third player from the Knoblauch deal to emerge as a major leaguer for Minnesota, Buchanan will turn 29 next year, has only marginal defensive skills, and doesn't appear to have much future as a starter. Given those limitations, he could have a nice run for a few seasons, since he manages acceptable BA/OBP despite problematic plate discipline, and his power potential remains high enough to help most any roto team. He's probably the current favorite to start in right-field next year, although Minnesota might just leave him in a left field platoon with Jacque Jones. Either way, Buchanan should help a roto team as a fifth outfielder, although he possesses neither long-term starting potential nor a low risk considering his BB:K ratio.
The White Sox need to either find playing time for Liefer or deal him while he's just approaching his prime. Their need for a productive left-handed bat should outweigh their other concerns, and they should make every effort to work him in at LF or 3B, with even the possibility of DH due to injury or a Thomas trade. His plate discipline is quite weak, but his power potential could be a solid asset to many roto teams, and you should make every effort to acquire him cheaply if he's available in your league.
Rowand is another of the many Sox' position players who would likely already be starting for another team. He has weak plate discipline and only average speed and power, so unless he can learn to play an acceptable center field, he's really no better than a fourth outfielder. Like Liefer, I'd only gamble a fifth OF spot on him in roto, and until Chicago commits to a specific role for him, you don't want to overbid on someone with relatively weak overall skills.
Greer's talent appears to be slowly fading due to his numerous injury problems. To quote Rick Wilton at the AFL Symposium, "The only surgery that [Greer] hasn't had is a hysterectomy." Ron Shandler also used Greer to illustrate another point in Arizona: the longer that a skill deficiency remains unaddressed (his inability to hit lefties), the more likely that the deficiency will continue and even overwhelm other positive skills. With both Texas' current lineup and number of top hitting prospects, I suspect that Rusty will be phased out of Arlington as soon as they can move him. He was a capable top-of-the-order hitter for several years, but with his power gone and plate discipline looking weaker every year, I don't have much hope for him in the future. If you even hit double-digits on his bidding, you're taking a risk that I likely wouldn't accept.
Encarnacion has a better chance of joining Richard Karn is a new version of Home Improvement than he does of maturing into a great major league outfielder. His plate discipline is simply abhorrent, and the Tigers were incredibly lucky that Jim Bowden's fascination with toolsy outfielders netted them a far superior and more flexible player in Dmitri Young. Encarnacion will likely battle Ruben Mateo for the remaining Cincy OF job, but with Austin Kearns and others advancing quickly, I wouldn't expect to see Encarnacion playing for the Reds after this season. His value lies entirely with HR/SB upside, since his skills simply don't support even a league average BA.
There will be a small window in 2002 when Wells should be extremely undervalued and in the middle of "post-hype" status. His plate discipline hasn't caught up with the rest of his game, his SB% was quite bad at AAA Syracuse last year, and he's no longer eligible for Rookie of the Year consideration. Even with all those problems, whenever Toronto moves another outfielder, Wells will begin receiving 500 at-bats a season and should almost immediately boost his value into the high teens. With over 1000 AAA at-bats, he's still only 23 and on-target for a very productive 2002 season, just like a certain columnist who just found out that he happens to have been born on the exact same date as Wells.
Is there any way to discuss Al Martin without mentioning the small fact that no one in Pittsburgh ever discovered that he was a compulsive liar? Which do you prefer: Martin on "My Three Wives", or Martin's football career on the same team as George O'Leary. If you draft Martin next season, you're admitting that you condone a lack of honesty in everyday life, including trade discussions with fellow owners. His plate discipline has always been relatively weak, and with his power and speed both fading, there's little reason to draft him on statistical grounds in the first place.
Martin and Lewis strike again. Considering their weak OF depth, perhaps Florida should consider grabbing both of these guys for some kicks in the clubhouse. With Martin's habitual non-truth-telling, Lewis would be a great foil, and together they have a lot of potential as a platoon fourth outfielder, neither one of whom has any real potential to help your team.
Justice's 2000 certainly seemed out of character with his recent career. While this fall was a little unexpected, between his injury history, deteriorating plate discipline, and apparent malaise in New York, perhaps a move out to the Bay will add a few more years to his career. Justice could bat anywhere from 3rd to 7th with Oakland, and since they have the depth to allow him to play only when able, expect a nice jump in value, perhaps even into the high teens.
Kinkade has long since demonstrated solid offensive ability, and his great defensive flexibility makes him a quality 25th man for any team in baseball. The only positions that seem outside of his capabilities are those in the middle infield. Considering his excellent plate discipline and SLG in the minors, Kinkade should be at the top of your FAAB list when he receives an opportunity in the middle of the year. He shouldn't hurt you, and his value will only increase with more playing time.
Curtis's numbers have steadily declined for a few years, and not many teams are looking for a right-handed fifth outfielder with little upside who has an annoying habit of picking fights with "less Christian" teammates. When I think of Curtis, the first person that comes to mind is junkballer Eddie Harris in Major League, but even he eventually accepted Cerrano's beliefs when Cleveland started winning regularly. Without great plate discipline or a guarantee of playing time, there's no reason to consider Curtis for any role larger than an injury replacement.
Pittsburgh promoted Guillen to the majors straight from A-ball in the first of seemingly dozens of moronic over-promotions. He actually acquitted himself quite nicely in his first year in the majors, but after showing little progress in the next two seasons, Guillen found himself fighting for playing time in Tampa Bay and now released due to a potential arbitration hearing. He retains the potential to suddenly explode into a 20/80 season, although with weak plate discipline and seemingly no idea of how to hit, I don't see him ever reaching his potential. He's a prime example of why teams should be very conservative when promoting prospects, first, to avoid exposure to the Rule Five draft, second, to maintain consistent development at increasingly difficult levels, and third, to retain players through their primes instead of worrying about arbitration and free agency.
Latham is one of those minor leaguers that definitely deserves notice at AAA. He neither possesses great power nor plate discipline, but he'll hit a dozen homers, steal a few bases, and walk enough to remain interesting to his managers. We were quite pleased with his work as an injury replacement late in the year, and since it appears that Toronto may just keep him as their primary reserve outfielder, he might even boost this value a few bucks with double or more playing time. You should probably just target him as a reserve, since he doesn't have significant upside even as a starter, and players either starting or with projectability should comprise your entire primary roster.
O'Leary has never shown acceptable plate discipline, but as a pre-arbitration player, he provided Boston with a couple years of solid power production in the lower half of the lineup. He didn't deserve a long-term deal, and now he's left searching for even a roster spot next season. I'd expect him to have a lot of success if he could find a spot with a team in Japan, although he's an acceptable pinch-hitter and even potentially a platoon outfielder on a team with good offense up the middle.
While Garcia continues to have poor plate discipline, he has enough power upside where I'd love to see some team give him 500 at-bats in the majors to see if additional playing time will finally allow him to show some consistency. He's still only 26, so this would be a great time for a risk since he definitely would at least be a solid backup during his prime. If he makes a roster with injury-prone starters, strongly consider a dollar bid, since I've had a feeling for a year or two that he could earn double-digits with a definite full-time job.
Gibbons still has the chance to be one of the better players ever picked in the Rule Five draft. He possesses solid plate discipline along with a lot of power potential, and since he's only turning 25 and playing in Camden Yards, his value could still increase significantly over the next few years. I wouldn't spend more than a couple of dollars on him since he has no guarantee of a roster spot even when healthy, although he'd be a fantastic target for any reserve draft.
The Royals appear to have some strange compulsion to promote their prospects too quickly and then bail out on them at the first sign of trouble. Brown needed another half season at AA to insure that his first performance wasn't a fluke, and without that development time, he predictably struggled in first AAA and then the majors. If they actually allow him to receive 500 at-bats in 2002 despite the presence of Knoblauch, Tucker, and Quinn, he has a chance to go 20/20 and kick his value to near ten times his 2001 levels. Don't expect that much until Muser is gone from Kansas City, but if they wisely send Brown down, he doesn't complain, and hits great at Omaha, make every effort to acquire him upon his call-up.
Allen's not really even a good bench player considering he can't play centerfield and doesn't hit enough for the corner slots. With weak plate discipline, his BA doesn't offer any help to you, and he doesn't own enough tools to contribute in any other category. Any potential value is entirely dependent on playing time, and with players who have much more upside like Kielty and Buchanan now, and Cuddyer and Restovich soon, all competing for basically one or maybe two outfield slots, Allen doesn't look to be long for the majors.
Ignore 2001 for Salmon. His plate discipline remained solid, he still showed that he owns good power, and he'll only be 33 for much of 2002. I don't expect him to return all the way to 2000 levels without a hitter like Mo Vaughn hitting around him, but there's little reason to think that Salmon won't return at least into the mid-teens of value. He may still be overpriced, and he's facing an unlikely downside of a bum 2002 leading to both falling draft confidence and little hope for a comeback. I'd still gamble up to a dozen bucks or so, but with limited RBI opportunities due to Anaheim's OBP problems, he's not worth much more risk than a salary around $12.
Palmeiro has a very good chance of finding over 300 at-bats next year with the uncertainty regarding several Angel position players. He owns incredible plate discipline, so I'd expect his BA to bounce back close to .300. With a likely couple of hundred at-bats, an average near .300 will jump his value several dollars, and as long as Anaheim doesn't acquire another bat before spring training, definitely consider Palmeiro for your last OF slot. There's a good chance that a dollar or two bid will turn into a double-digit value.
Baltimore desperately needs to give Matos a full year in AAA. He has as great chance for roto success considering his tremendous speed, but his long-term possibilities are restricted by a lack of power and weak BB:K, BA, and OBP. I like him at a buck or two or even as a mid-level minor league pick, although I remain quite worried that the Orioles will send him to the majors again without forcing him to learn any useful hitting skills.
Kielty has very good plate discipline and some power, although he hasn't demonstrated much of either in a brief 104 at-bats in the majors. He's probably the favorite to win the right field job in spring training, and given his current skills, his upside is probably similar to that of Rusty Greer. I'm a little worried since his Minnesota statistics don't appear commensurate with his minor league numbers, but his track record is still solid enough to make me comfortable with bidding several dollars on him in 2002 as long as he'll likely receive a few hundred at-bats.
Today's Fantasy Rx: If you want to make some money this weekend, you're going to have read my
Couch #1 When growing up, we had a marginally beat-up old coach in the family room for watching TV. It moved downstairs when the TV did, allowing the upstairs living room to be used more exclusively for company. By company, I mean those folks who came by to see our Easter Tree in early April. I believe we even had an end-of-school tree one year, but I digress. Ye Olde Green Couch still exists as a box holder, although its not longer suitable for sitting; the cushions have been smushed to about half their former size. My friend Justin lays claim to the couch should Mom and Dad ever part with it. He pretty much appropriated it on more weekends than I can count, so he can have it if he can find room for it somewhere. Couch #2 So the old green couch moved downstairs and we bought a new and "nicer" couch for company. I say "nicer" because while it was technically a finer couch, I wasn't often allowed to sit on it, and I never found it particularly comfortable when I did. I'm fairly certain that it was chosen exclusively to match the décor with no thought as to the comfort of those sitting upon it. Mom and Dad also bought really comfy chairs to go with the couch, although those were also meant for "company." Couches #3 While away at school, we had the most annoying and formulaic maroon and oak couches and "loveseats". You couldn't recline on them, they lacked any semblance of comfort, and they weren't at an angle even slightly conducive to studying. After a few years of TV on those futon-wannabes, I thought anything would be an improvement. Couch #4 After moving off-campus at college, we rented a couch from CORT furniture. Now this couch had certainly been around the block a few times, but it was a magic couch. Things tended to fall into the cushions and never emerge. I believe my former roommate might still be stuck in there somewhere. Unfortunately, none of my professors ever bought the "couch ate my homework" excuse. Couch #5 Jess and I moved back near home once we finished classes, and a couch came included with our residence. We finally had a blue couch, a preferred color for both of us, but this one also had some minor problems. It lacked the Amazing Eating Cushions of the rental, but comfort was now a problem again. The cushions were low, flat, and uncomfortable, which we found rather surprising considering that the couch appeared relatively unused by the lady that lived here prior to us. We wound up giving this couch over to Justin and his wife Melody, and while it doesn't have the sentimental value of Ye Olde Green Couch, it's still serving them just fine. Couch #6 My Grandma passed away a couple years ago, and we inherited some of her furniture, including her couch and a couple of nice round swivel chairs. Grandma was somewhat meticulous about keeping things in order, and one of her peccadillos revolved around her furniture. When she moved out of her house to a retirement community, all her primary comfy chairs and couches still had the original plastic covering on them. The three pieces that she kept (now our couch and chairs) remained protected from spills right up to the time that we inherited them. Unfortunately, we had no better luck with this couch than the previous one, as despite the flawless fabric, the frame had seen a lot of use over the last thirty years or so. We only had it here for a few weeks when we noticed more creaking than ever before, and the front floorboard eventually cracked about a year ago, leaving a nice sag on the entire left side of the couch. So we flipped through the Jon Lovitz-authored Yellow Pages and called The Couch Doctor. The Couch Doctor came, glued everything back together, and told us it would be fine. It promptly broke again a few inches from the repair in about two days or so. So we have a depressed and depressing couch from which to watch television. Couch #7 (better be our lucky number) When visiting for an afternoon Cubs' game a few months ago, Mom and Dad pretty much ordered us to replace the couch. Ignoring whatever sentimental attachment we had to it, it simply didn't work for either company or our own uses, so we started browsing the sales ads to find a new couch. We had the most important feature already picked out. Our couch would be blue. So since we didn't really want to have to spend all the many minutes meandering through the ever-congested furniture stores filled with couches that aren't blue, we looked for a blue couch in newspaper ads. A La-Z-Boy peaked our interest almost immediately. First, it was blue. Second, it looked plush and comfy. Third and most importantly, both sides reclined and the center folded down to hold drinks and food. Three months passed as we launched this site and we found every imaginable excuse to avoid spending the money since we sort of could live with this couch even if it wasn't particularly comfortable and maybe we could just - okay, so we're couch slackers. We finally made it in to La-Z-Boy last Friday since the ad indicated that our couch's sale would expire on New Year's. So we went in and found our couch. It wasn't quite blue. It had this weird iridescent trim, sort of pinkish-redish-silvery-whiteish-color that reminds Jess of the Disney Fountain Laser Show, or something like that. Of course, the rest of the couch was great. It was soft and comfortable, and the sides reclined, and the middle had drinkholders, and everything seemed wonderful. Then we measured it, and of course, it was a foot longer than we wanted. After deliberating right up to the close of the store, we figured we can always move the other furniture, so we purchased the couch. What's more important to a sports' fan than the couch? So our New Blue Couch should arrive this morning. Grandma's couch will head to the garage to await a Salvation Army Truck, since some couch is certainly better than no couch. For the last week of the NFL season before the Bears begin playoffs, we'll have our new couch. I may not even leave the couch for long since we're quite sure it will be the most comfortable couch that either of us have ever used. And the moral is: Whether you gamble on football or merely have the appropriate QB on your fantasy team, you should know that: Cleveland will win this week, In Pittsburgh, Against the best team in the AFC, Because of karma (and the fact that Pirates have already clinched home field advantage throughout the playoffs and have nothing for which to play while Cleveland's playing for pride). The worst offensive team in the conference will beat the best defensive team in the conference. Their quarterback will have the best game of the year. Their quarterback, Certain to have a good week because of forces beyond his control, Who has about the worst statistics of any quarterback in the league,
Given this history, we're going to need it.
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