On the Seventh Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
AL PDV of 20+,
NL West "Prospects",
N L Cen-tral "Prospects",
NL East "Prospects",
NL without PDV,
Single-Digit NL PDV,
and National Leaguers with Double-Digit PDV.

American League Outfielders with Double-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ichiro Suzuki		692	242	.350	8	69	56	127	OF-152
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	56		54		42		41		24
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	51		48		38		37		20

Once again, the distinctions between the most popular forms of rotisserie baseball and "real" baseball are cleared up through the statistics of one man. Ichiro dominated the baseball scene this year from highlights like gunning down Terrence Long at third in April to simple, year-long leadoff excellency in running the Mariners up to a record 116 wins. He was the only offensive player to clear $50 this year, and he did so with room to spare. Still, he wasn't the best player in baseball by such simple measures as OBP and SLG, and he wasn't even the best offensive player in the division. A good argument can be made that he wasn't even the most valuable offensive player on his team. Do not confuse his dominance in roto with anything other than excellence in MLB, not to be confused with true greatness.

There are severe warning signs here to his continued high value as his 30:53 BB:K is pretty bad considering he found 692 AB. After several years of dominance in Japan, we can't expect his style of play to change now, although the possibility exists that he might tone down the steals and BA slightly in effort to hit more homers. Many analysts will likely dial his value down back into the high $30's, but I think this is a dreadful betrayal of their relevance to their readers.

There remains not a single overwhelming reason why Ichiro cannot post $50 again next year in either 4x4 or 5x5. If you can get him anywhere under $40, do so without hesitation. In any straight draft, he should be the second pick behind Alex Rodriguez, who we believe is more likely to improve and plays a much more vital defensive position. He should likely be your #1 trade target in AL leagues, especially if his owner isn't too full of the undeserved MVP award adulation and instead worries about a sophomore slump.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Carlos Beltran		617	189	.306	24	101	31	106	OF-152
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	36		35		27		27		21
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	33		32		25		25		19

Following Ichiro, we have four infielders and then Beltran checking in as the sixth best offensive player in the American League. After 2+ years in the league before his 24th birthday, Beltran had the breakout year that shocked many who believed his sophomore struggles were more indicative of his true value. He had an absolutely stunning 31:1 SB:CS ratio, and even if his BA likely falls next year due to a weak 52:120 BB:K ratio, he'll still be worth well over $20. You should target the mid-20's for Beltran, since I'm concerned that he'll slip from his 2001 levels, but if you believe the Royals can put some guys on-base in front of him, maybe his RBI increase will help compensate for falling averages.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Magglio Ordonez		593	181	.305	31	113	25	97	OF-156
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	35		34		27		26		33
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	32		31		25		24		29

Mags posted his third successive "career" year, with OBP, BB:K, and stolen base improvements that compensate for a slight drop in SLG and SB%. Ordonez is the offensive engine that drives the White Sox, and his consistency keeps his value just as high in roto. You know he'll return a little over $30 of value, and you pay that much to get five category certainty. None of his numbers suggest an approaching "break-out", but if he can boost his OBP from .382 into the .400 range, his chances of a high finish in the MVP race skyrocket.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Juan Gonzalez		532	173	.325	35	140	1	97	OF-119, DH-21
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	33		32		25		25		30
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	31		30		23		23		27

A happy and relaxed Juan Gonzalez had a great season, despite earning the Lifetime Jody Reed Award for Most Expensive Contract Offer Ever Rejected. I fully believe that his agent fired him, since I'd be rather upset if I lost a few million in commission. Everything about this season was in-line with his pre-Detroit performance. Now, instead of heading to a pitcher heaven in New York or Baltimore, Gonzalez needs to swallow his pride, and go back to either Cleveland or Texas on the longest deal they'll offer. If either team gives him $10M a year for the next five years, he should jump at it. Someone needs to remind him that he'll make the Hall of Fame with another 200 home runs, and that 300 more guarantees him a place near in the so-called Inner Circle. I can't see him hitting 300 in most East Coast parks, downgrade his value a few bucks if he goes to anything but an American League non-pitchers' park.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Shannon Stewart		640	202	.316	12	60	27	103	OF-142
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	33		32		25		25		29
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	31		30		23		23		30

While Stewart's SLG fell fifty points due to less home runs in more at-bats, his value returned to 1999 levels with a slightly improved OBP allowing him more SB opportunities. He'd be a fantastic #2 hitter on a great team, and he's a perfectly capable leadoff hitter on the Blue Jays. Gord Ash's best move may have been to keep Stewart and Jose Cruz so that Ricciardi can focus on trading the overrated and more expensive Raul Mondesi. Expect Stewart to settle in for a couple years of .310/105/15/65/30, pay your $30, and go merrily on your way.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Roger Cedeno		523	153	.293	6	48	55	79	OF-142
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	31		30		24		23		33
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	29		28		22		21		30

One of the most despicable acts of the season was Detroit's decision to bench Roger Cedeno for the last few weeks of the season to avoid paying him plate appearance incentives. Cedeno was clearly their second best OF after Higginson, and to claim you're "going with youth" when benching the 26-year-old Cedeno and the 25-year-old Juan Encarnacion deserves at least a fine if not a decently long suspension from baseball. Neither one of them were great players this year, but while Encarnacion played himself off the team, Cedeno deserved playing time at least as a pinch-runner. The fall in his OBP troubles me a lot, but I think he'll find solid success in New York. All you can really hope for is an average around .300 and forty or so SB; any additional boost is just gravy on the $30 he'll already cost you. If you can find your SB elsewhere, you probably shouldn't spend an OF slot on Cedeno.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Manny Ramirez		529	162	.306	41	125	0	93	OF-55, DH-87
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	28		27		22		21		37
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	27		26		20		20		34

Manny's 2002 could look a lot like his exceptional 1999 season. Of course, his OBP and SLG were superior in 2000, but for roto purposes, the 40 additional RBI and 6 more homers help a lot more than qualitative improvement. With a real leadoff guy in Damon followed by Trot Nixon and Nomar, Ramirez should have a fantastic season even if Tony Clark becomes injured again next year. Manny could easily jack his value back to over $40 in 2002, and if you can keep him for less than that, you should insure a small little profit on top of an extremely high base set of numbers.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jose Cruz, Jr.		577	158	.274	34	88	32	92	OF-147
TOR Blue Jays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	28		27		21		21		18
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	26		25		20		19		15

Jose Cruz, Jr. remains an enigma to many observers. His BA jumped despite a noticeable fall in plate discipline, and he opened up to a 30/30 season out of seemingly nowhere. Cruz' power should continue for many more years, but I'd anticipate more in the .250/25 steal range than his 2001 breakout. His RBI total could jump over a 100 with a stable lineup, likely allowing him to hit behind Delgado with Stewart and, if he's kept, Mondesi behind him. While I like Cruz's chances of continued success, I'd have a hard time bidding even to the $25 likely necessary to acquire him.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Bernie Williams		540	166	.307	26	94	11	102	OF-144
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	28		27		21		21		26
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	26		26		20		20		32

Williams has established himself as one of the most consistent players in the history of rotisserie. Since 1996, his BA has stayed in the .305-.342 range, along with between 21-30 HR, 94-121 RBI, 9-17 SB, and 101-116 runs. His downside is $20, his upside is $35, and anything up to $30 is a good bid with Jason Giambi hitting either immediately in front of or behind him. If you think Soriano's OBP will see a nice rise, bid into the mid-$30's as Bernie's RBI could jump back into the 120 range with more runners on base ahead of him. With his lowest strikeout total in years in 2001, he should stay at this level for at least a few more years.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Garret Anderson		672	194	.289	28	123	13	83	OF-156
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	27		26		21		20		21
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	25		25		19		19		18

There's only one number of any relevance in this stat line, and that's the glaring 672 AB. Anderson's value is entirely attributable to his yearly 600+ AB and a high BA that never corresponds with his awful plate discipline. His OBP is about .310 over the last two years, a number that gives him no value above perhaps the 6th slot of any respectable lineup. If the Angels rely on him to provide a significant chunk of their offense, they'll flounder to another 3rd place finish in spite of a fairly good rotation, and even a SLG back over .500 won't convince me to add him to my team. This feels like "crying wolf", but I just don't see Anderson keeping these levels up with his skills, and you don't want to own him when he drops from $20+ to under $10 due to less than 600 AB and a falling BA.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Frank Catalanotto		463	153	.330	11	54	15	77	OF-93
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	27		26		20		20		4
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	25		24		19		18		6

Catalanotto finally had the chance to show off the skills that many already suspected he possessed. Aside from the sharp rise in BA, many of these numbers are very similar to his previous few years, projected over an additional 200 or so at-bats. If he had managed to increase his HR instead of more than doubling his doubles, he would have been even more valuable. Unfortunately, his plate discipline fell to questionable levels with rising strikeouts without any worthwhile walk increase. Because he's only limited to OF in most leagues, I probably wouldn't bid much above $10 next year, since his playing time will disappear as Pena, Blalock, Romano, Teixeira, and Mench begin requiring major league starting jobs.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mike Cameron		540	144	.267	25	110	34	99	OF-149
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	25		25		19		19		20
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	24		24		19		18		22

Cameron turned out to be a very adequate replacement for Griffey so far, and he gives the Mariners a very nice lineup addition if they can just leave him somewhere near the #6 slot. Keeping an OBP around .360 in #2 slot doesn't really help them despite his power and speed skills. You also must not forget that much of his value to the Mariners rests on his Gold Glove defense, allowing them to overlook potential problems like a 69:155 BB:K ratio. You can't expect Cameron to perform much above these levels, except for perhaps cracking thirty homers once in the next few years, but he should be able to maintain them for at least a couple more seasons. Hold the line at anything above the mid-$20's, and hope two other owners have enough faith in him to push his price over $30, a level unattainable without a sudden and unexpected plate discipline improvement.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jermaine Dye		599	169	.282	26	106	9	91	OF-155
KC / OAK		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	21		21		16		16		23
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	21		20		16		16		26

Oakland hopes that Dye's performance after joining the Athletics is more indicative of his potential than the numbers he's actually posted over the last few years. In the last three years when he should be turning "breakout" seasons into a higher level of production, his OBP has bounced from .354 to .390 and then .346, while his SLG has gone from .526 to .561 down to .467 in 2001. He needs a strong rebound leading into free agency, and unless he can find his plate discipline from 2000, he'll be hard-pressed to earn much more than $20 or so. He's still playing at a very respectable level and should be a competent cleanup hitter, but he'll have to really listen to Hitting Coach Thad Bosley if he's to return to All-Star levels.

Early conclusions: Most of these players suffer from inaccurate perceptions of their value. Cedeno, Anderson, and perhaps Dye appear overvalued with only some chance of returning to their "peaks", and Beltran and even Ichiro seem undervalued considering their publicity. Your best bet is try to snag Ichiro, and then fortify your offense with one or two of the truly consistent players reviewed above: Ordonez, Gonzalez, Stewart, Ramirez and Williams. These are the kind of players that allow you to take some risks elsewhere, since they have established levels of excellence that increase their value due to sheer consistency. At least one of them will likely be undervalued in your league for one reason or another, since it seems that one of these guys is always perceived weakly in a given year. However, with at least three extremely solid years in a row for all of them, the top of the AL outfield ranks is where you need to spend some money

We'll review American Leaguers with under $20 PDV tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Welch's Sparking White Grape Juice is the Yoo-Hoo of celebrations. If you think you're going to even so much as roll your Big Wheels down the block to throw snowballs at nearby owners (Buffalo, we can't see you waving over the snow drifts), Welch's is the only bubbly you better down tonight. To paraphrase the roto Bible, "If you're not in an area where your local grocer carries Welch's, move". Happy almost 2002.