On the Sixth Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
NL West "Prospects",
N L Cen-tral "Prospects",
NL East "Prospects",
NL without PDV,
Single-Digit NL PDV,
and National Leaguers with Double-Digit PDV.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor League Free Agents:
Derrick Gibson, 26, B:R, T:R. A former "top" Rockies' prospect who never had the plate discipline or OBP to support that status, Gibson will likely be stuck in AAA for a few more years. He shows significant power potential, but his walk rate will never be good enough for an established starting position. If he develops his long-ball skills, I suspect that he'll find another good opportunity for a major league job by 2004 or so. Of course, all this is just a roundabout way of saying that he's not a good roto buy for the next two seasons or so.
Mike Glendenning, 24, B:R, T:R. Glendenning's only had 139 at-bats above AA, and his recent numbers were bad enough where he found himself all the back at A+ Lancaster. He has a little power potential and walks at a decent pace, but his lack of plate discipline or acceptable BA will keep him off most AAA rosters. His only shot at success at higher levels is several years away, years in which he needs to focus on making incremental gains in his skills.

Prospects:
Doug Devore, 23, B:L, T:L. Devore has decent prospects for success at upper levels despite statistics not overly impressive for AA El Paso. His walk rate is barely acceptable, and his three-year career ratio of 107:255 BB:K leaves much to be desired. Arizona will promote him to AAA in 2002 barring a stroke of insight from some member of the front office, but he still has time to emerge as a solid prospect. He's a potential replacement for Luis Gonzalez's power in a few years, even if he might find a better opportunity in right field sooner. I like his upside, and would consider a low minor league pick for him since Arizona always could decide to move him up quickly.
Luis Terrero, 21, B:R, T:R. I'm only including this guy because Baseball America just named him the Snakes' best prospect. They anointed Alex Cinton with the same title a year ago, and now he's not even listed in Arizona's Top Fifteen. I have very little faith in Terrero's development, since they seem to have no plan in place to teach him how to play baseball. The scouts keep saying he'll mature into his tools, but I don't even see too many tools. He played in four different leagues last year, never receiving more than 147 or less than 41 at-bats at any level from A- Yakima to AA El Paso. He's displayed some speed upside in the past along with some power potential this year, but I can't look away from his 4:45 BB:K in 147 AA at-bats. I can't imagine him making Arizona to stay for another four or five years, right up to the edge of his minor league free agency. Talk him up at the draft and hope someone else takes a chance on him. There's just not enough discipline to trust the scout's judgment on this kid.

Colorado Rockies
Minor League Free Agents:
Bubba Carpenter, 32, B:L, T:L. Bubba found his first shot in the majors in 2000 when the Rockies gave him a brief look for twenty-seven at-bats. He has solid on-base skills and a little power, but he's really no more than a AAA player at this point in his career. There's still time for him to show off for a good season or two, although he won't be appearing on roto teams any time soon.
Kevin Gibbs, 27, B:S, T:R. Kevin did not play professional baseball in 2001 to the best of my knowledge. His performance prior to this season indicated that he has excellent plate discipline and tremendous speed, including 49 bags stolen for AA San Antonio in 1997. He appears to have missed a lot of time in the past few years, I believe due to some chronic injury problems. If he can stay healthy, he has a chance to be a decent back-up, but based on his track record, I don't expect him in the majors any time soon.
Luis Landaeta, 24, B:L, T:L. Landaeta doesn't have any significant offensive potential. He's never played above AA or even managed a .725 OPS at any level. Without power or speed upside, he'll be lucky to find work next year, and I suspect the Rockies would have cut him loose sooner if he hadn't maintained a barely acceptable level of play.
Mike Murphy, 29, B:R, T:R. Murphy has very good speed and usually makes enough contact to maintain a respectable OBP. Unfortunately, he doesn't have much power at all, and his AAA plate discipline has been poor his entire career. He's an acceptable minor league veteran to fill-in at the upper levels until an organization's prospects develop, but he doesn't deserve the major league appearance cup-of-coffee that many of these other players merit.
Mike Peeples, 24, B:R, T:R. I find it somewhat interesting Peeples has played for only one team in each year of his nine-year career. Aside from two non-consecutive appearances at A+ Dunedin for Toronto, he's also never repeated any club. It appears that this stability has allowed his career to bloom at a relaxed pace, since while his plate discipline is still below average and his walk rate remains unacceptable, he's developed solid power to add to some noticeable speed skills. He has a lot of experience for a twenty-five year old, and while I'd like to see him head down to first at a jog more often, I think he has solid potential for a several year run, beginning probably sometime in 2003. If he signs with an organization with a couple of power-hitting, injury-prone outfielders in the majors, like Milwaukee, consider grabbing this guy in a minor league draft.
Scott Seal, 25, B:L, T:L. Seal finally made it to AA this season, where he suddenly jumped to a 33:34 BB:K ratio from only about half that much, an improvement that came at the expense of his BA and SLG, which fell a few dozen points. However, Colorado should have left him there instead of demoting him to A+ Salem, where all his statistics promptly fell even further. He has no major league potential at this point, and although there are small signs that he could develop into a decent AA veteran, I think he'd be better off with a couple years in the independent leagues.

Prospects:
Scott Bullett, 32, B:L, T:L. Bullett's career appears to be winding down after a missed opportunity in a weak Cub outfield in the mid-90's. He displayed some power and speed potential, but he never showed much in the majors because his plate discipline was always abhorrent. His baserunning skills also weren't nearly as good as his raw speed, so he wound up costing his team runs on the bases. In retrospect, there was little reason to expect much from him, and his current statistics don't merit a place in almost any organization.
Lance Johnson, 37, B:L, T:L. Johnson was never as good as his offensive reputation, and his defense wasn't spectacular enough to warrant a starting job on its own. His .291 career BA obscured only a .334 OBP, much too low for a leadoff hitter with little power (his extra-base totals were derived largely from single-handedly hitting-and-running). While his speed was a marginal asset to some teams, his 76% success rate didn't really help as much as most people thought. He still has enough talent to help some team as a fifth outfielder, but with younger and better players like Glen Barker already without jobs, the market probably won't allow One Dog to head back to the majors.
Roberto Kelly, 36, B:R, T:R. Kelly had an amazingly similar career to Johnson. While a year younger and right-handed, Kelly was a superior player due to an extra 50 points of career SLG. That difference explains why while Johnson was traded Jose LeDeon and Brian McRae, Kelly has been packaged for Joe Mays, Deion Sanders, Marquis Grissom, Henry Rodriguez, and most famously, from the Yankees to Cincinnati for Paul O'Neill. Kelly could also still play in the majors in a small role, but he doesn't even enough speed to keep up with the likes of Lance Johnson any more.
Melvin Nieves, 29, B:S, T:R. I feel like I'm authoring a retrospective on ballplayers overrated by many scouts in the 90's. Nieves has actually turned in a few decent seasons, although much of his recent career has been spent overseas. He's always had solid power, but his excessive strikeouts caused managers to overlook his very acceptable walk rate. His minor league career OPS is .845, and while he shouldn't be starting for anyone, he could probably be a reliable backup and pinch-hitter for a few seasons. Since his BA is somewhat flaky due to his plate discipline problems, he won't be worth a roto pickup without significant playing time.
Belvani Martinez, 22, B:R, T:R. Martinez has a decent BA but never walks, good speed but no baserunning skill, and doubles' power without much HR potential. Since he's never even had much success at AA, its hard to predict a great future for him. However, he's still quite young, and shows enough tools where some organization should try its hand in teaching him in an environment closer to sea level. He won't be ready for a couple years, but he could easily mature into a quality reserve outfielder.

Los Angeles Dodgers
Minor League Free Agents:
Brent Cookson, 31, B:R, T:R. Cookson has shown very solid plate discipline in limited time over the last couple of seasons at AAA Albuquerque and now Las Vegas in 2001. His OPS has been above .900 for over the last four years, and he could definitely provide some nice pop off the bench for several major league clubs. When he receives his next call-up, you should definitely consider a dollar FAAB bid even if you don't need him as any injury replacement. His window will only last another few season and the lack of a full compliment of AAA at-bats troubles me, but he deserves another shot in the big leagues.
Darrell Dent, 24, B:L, T:L. Dent has spent most of his minor league career at AA in Baltimore and Los Angeles, levels at which he's displayed good speed potential but no power at all. With only average plate discipline, he has almost no chance at AAA success. If he can retain his other skills and begin developing more power over the next few years, he has a chance at a cup-of-coffee or two, but he should already be somewhat re-signed to coach seating on planes and buses.
Tony Mota, 23, B:S, T:R. While Mota doesn't have any prodigious gifts, he's consistently demonstrated average plate discipline with some speed and power potential. His statistics have been slightly inflated by his leagues, but considering his age and experience, he's still a decent prospect. Mota has one of the highest upsides of any minor league free agent position player, and he could emerge as at least a backup on a team with a weak outfield.
Chris Prieto, 28, B:L, T:L. Prieto has excellent plate discipline and very good speed, but until this season at AAA Las Vegas, he'd never shown real power. If he can play center even a little, LA should have brought him up last year and started him. When he finds a major league job, he has immediate roto potential with little downside due to his speed and a solid BA supported by his underlying statistics. He could have a very nice career for a few seasons if some team smartly gives him a shot.

Prospects:
Bubba Crosby, 24, B:L, T:L. Crosby has some upside due to brief displays of speed and power skills, but LA paid the price for over-promoting him to AAA this season. He settled into a respectable year at AA, although he doesn't appear to have enough skills for success above AA. While he has some long-term promise as a backup outfielder, I don't think Crosby will fulfill the expectations of a first round draft pick.
Luke Allen, 22, B:L, T:R. Allen has good power but horrible plate discipline. He walks just enough to make his power a worthwhile addition if his manager can ignore the huge number of strikeouts. The Dodgers need to promote him to AAA and leave him there as long as possible, but he certainly shouldn't be taking playing time away from Shawn Green or Gary Sheffield, and he appears to lack the skills to play anywhere else. They should probably consider this guy for 1B, since he can probably replace Karros in another year at a tenth of the cost, allowing more money to pay the injury premiums on all of the expensive starting pitchers.
Chin-Feng Chen, 23, B:R, T:R. Anaheim reportedly turned down an offer of Chen and Matt Herges for Percival, a move that will haunt them for years to come as Chen stars on the other side of the nation's largest suburb. Chen made tremendous gains from a lackluster 2000 at AA, and he appears poised to enter the Dodgers' outfield picture by the end of the season. I'd leave him in the minors as long as possible both to delay his arbitration/free agency clock, and to make sure his 2001 performance wasn't a partial fluke due to repeating a level. Since his 2000 troubles were partially attributed to nagging injuries, I think he'll follow-up strongly and be ready to start in 2003. He offers decent power and BA immediately, with the promise of stolen bases if he can maintain a solid OBP. You should definitely target Chen for a high minor league pick, and if he's already taken, see if his owner still remembers his down 2000 instead of his very promising 2001.

San Diego Padres
Minor League Free Agents:
Emil Brown and Santiago Perez were covered with National League Outfielders.
Ernie Young, 31, B:R, T:R. An anchor of Team USA in Sydney, Young still deserves a major league roster spot. He's already passed his peak but still can contribute on a roster needing a reliable right-handed bat off the bench. Young really needs to find an organization with less depth than San Diego, and he should probably look to some place like Toronto that can appreciate his gifts and keeps solid minor league free agents rotating through AAA.

Prospects:
Kory DeHaan, 24, B:L, T:R. DeHaan, a Rule 5 pick from Pittsburgh in 2000, put together an interesting minor league season capped off by a laudable performance in the Arizona Fall League. He has good speed, some plate discipline, and in Arizona, he finally started showing the power he's hidden since A Augusta in 1998. I don't think he'll ever be a full-time starter in the majors, but DeHaan gives the Padres another solid minor league outfielder behind their impressive major league depth at most positions.
Al Benjamin, 23, B:R, T:R. Benjamin has good power potential and a little speed, but he needs another year or so at AA considering his plate discipline is awful with a 18:73 BB:K ratio in 374 AB. He's all tools and no production at this point, and he likely won't receive the development time that he needs given both the Padres' depth and five years in the minors. San Diego should deal this guy to whatever organization is too enamored of his tools to realize that Benjamin won't be ready for the majors for at least a few more years.
Jeremy Owens, 24, B:R, T:R. Owens has significant stolen base potential as he's averaging over forty steals a year at an 80% success rate. Unfortunately, he's not even hit well at AA yet despite a decently good walk rate, and with three times as many strikeouts as walks, he'll be lucky to see the majors from on the field. While I do have serious reservations about his skills, he does have serious roto potential if he finds regular work in the majors but don't pick him up until he shows some ability to hit the ball in AA.

San Francisco Giants
Minor League Free Agents:
Alex Fajardo, 25, B:R, T:R. Fajardo's had little exposure above A-ball, but his statistics suggest some major league potential. He demonstrated excellent speed in cruising the bathpaths at an 83% success rate, and his plate discipline has appeared good at times. Given that he's changed teams four times over the last two years in Frisco, I don't expect he'll receive the necessary time to develop considering that his "upside" is just as a fourth outfielder, despite serious speed potential. He needs to find an organization that will give him 400 at-bats at AA to see if he has the talent to succeed in the upper minors, a proposition that appears somewhat dubious at this time.
Jake Messner, 24, B:L, T:L. Messner has neither played much at all above A-ball nor had good statistics even at that low level. He has little speed, weak plate discipline, and only the briefest displays of power. Without a sudden appearance of some heretofore unseen skill, I don't expect him to even find much AA time in the future.

Prospects:
Sean McGowan, 24, B:R, T:R. McGowan will probably wind up as the Giants' first baseman for a few years, possibly platooning with Snow as soon as this spring. While he has good power, his plate discipline is quite poor, and with only 194 AA at-bats, San Francisco needs to leave him at AAA for much of this season for now to improve his walk rate to his A-ball levels. He has good potential, but his skills need honing, and rushing him at this point, especially when they already have good infield depth in the majors, would be a bad mistake for both the organization and McGowan. Risk a middle round pick if you don't have to bring him up immediately, since I suspect he'll have some BA problems at least for his first few months in the majors.
Tony Torcato, 21, B:L, T:R. Torcato needs a full year at AAA to improve his plate discipline and more importantly, translate his doubles' power into home runs. He's one of the better outfield prospects in the league with the ability to emerge as a solid fifth hitter by late 2003, so definitely consider spending a relatively high minor league pick on him. While he may struggle a bit if promoted too quickly again, I really like his potential and believe he'll overcome his current skill deficiencies.
Carlos Valderrama, 23, B:R, T:R. I admit that I'm reviewing this guy more because he has a fantastic last name than his likelihood of immediate roto prospects. Given that, I'm concerned about his severe lack of playing time. His 159 at-bats at AA Shreveport this season were the second most of his five-year career behind 2000's 435 at A+ Bakersfield. I was impressed by his numbers a year ago, as he exploded with 54 steals at an 83% success rate, along with a .476 SLG. Guys like this always have some problems, and Valderrama is both too old for his competition and lacking in plate discipline. He has a chance to be a decent major league backup, but he needs to greatly increase his repetitions if he's to find enough experience to warrant further advancement.
Doug Clark, 25, B:L, T:R. Clark was at AA Shreveport for the last two years, although he hasn't really shown much significant promise other than small gains in plate discipline and OBP. With a corresponding SLG drop twice as large as the OBP improvement, he'll need to show something quickly to even have a chance as a major league backup. He might turn out to be a decent AAA player considering he also has slightly above average speed, but I just don't see enough talent in these statistics to suggest a productive career by the Bay.

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you know anyone who either works for AOhelL or is affiliated with any of their affiliates in any way, please smack them upside the head for us. We're shifting our e-mail from an AohelL address over to a different account, and we'd like to forward our old messages. Apparently, despite the fact that they already don't have the bounce/redirect feature, AOhelL 6.0 won't let you forward any messages older than a week. We have a few thousand messages that we'd like to eventually forward over so we have all of our league e-mails in one place for easy reference, and its now going to take three times as long to manually transfer the text. So, as I said, please smack them upside the head, just in case they've forgotten that they work for the devil. I know, I know; they work for the other devil, the one that isn't Bill Gates.

Their customer service sites also haven't been loading for us, so if anyone knows if v7.0 fixes this "feature" or if there's some other way to forward older messages without getting a "This message no longer available for forwarding" on the screen, please let us know.