December 26th 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
On the Second Day of Outfielders, my true love gave to me:
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Benard's fall in value can be largely attributed to a decrease of 168 at-bats. He actually maintained his power numbers but saw losses in plate discipline and steals. I expect he'll receive about 500 AB next year with the probable dearth of solid Giant outfielders, although you should be happy with a 20/60/10 finish, since none of his indicators suggest he can do much better.
Tucker's patience feel dramatically as both his walk rate and BB:K ratio took major hits when he pushed back up over 400 at-bats. His BA will probably stay around .250 at best in the foreseeable future, and be happy if he can keep these speed and power levels while he fights for playing time in KC. Based on his history, I suspect he can produce numbers similar to these in a straight-platoon, and his average could rise; more playing time always drags down his averages.
His plate discipline took a hit like the rest of the Phillies due to Hitting Coach Richie Hebner's complete incompetence. Burrell clearly has the talent to expand his power production and should develop into a reliable cleanup hitter within the next two years. He needs to see a rise in both OBP and SLG to establish himself in the middle of the order, but with almost two full years of major league experience and the probable departure of Rolen, he is a definitely a player that you'll want to own for the next few years.
We heard this great story from a fellow owner about how Jenkins, in the middle of his injury troubles, hung out at Wisconsin bar way past his bedtime, and even took a long turn as bartender. The regular bartenders loved it since he brought in extra tips and let the regulars keep all the cash, and the patrons loved it, well, probably because they thought it was Brett Favre. Unless he learns to control the strike zone, his 2000 numbers are probably the best that he can produce, but as he enters his prime, a 40 homer season in the next three years wouldn't surprise me at all.
Turned into Rodney Dangerfield this season, as the Cardinals put him on the DL due to a lack of respect. He started turning it around in San Diego, and there's no reason to think that he won't reach the mid-teens again hitting behind Nevin. While he'll be lucky to get above 400 AB due to the presence of Bubba Trammell (and to a lesser extent, Mike Darr), Lankford still has the talent to remain productive in a slightly reduced role for a few more seasons. Considering Bochy's frequent green light for most Padres, also don't be shocked if Lankford dials it back up to 20/20 next year.
Instead of his BA rebounding to match his solid plate discipline, Burnitz's plate discipline fell down to support his BA. He's fully capable of a 40/120 season if he stay healthy and the Brewers put men on base in front of him, but if he gets stuck batting fifth again behind Jenkins and Sexson, be content with another 30/100. If you see his BB:K hovering around one at the end of April, he should jump up your list of trade targets.
Hunter has every indication of endgame gold in 2002. He's the only real centerfielder in the Houston outfield picture with Hidalgo, Berkman, Ward, and Merced, so he should play almost every day as a defensive replacement and pinch-runnner. His plate discipline has steadied in the last two years of part-time work so his BA should remain a small plus. More importantly, playing in Enron might even let him hit a career HR high. I'd be happy to grab him at anything up to around $5 next year, and there's every possibility that he could triple your investment.
Bautista somehow bewitched Arizona into re-signing him to a three-year deal despite the small fact that he's not even the 5th best available outfielder. They will play him and start him for much of the season, likely in a platoon in either center with Finley or right with Delucci or Durazo. He can probably post double-digit homers with 300 at-bats, but expecting anything from him in the other categories isn't a good bet.
Dunn and Griffey could combine for 100 homers as soon as 2002. He strikes out a little too much but keeps his walk rate high enough to justify a slot in the middle of the order. While he has a better chance of posting $30 next year than Albert Pujols, there's a slight chance that he might need a full year to adjust to the league. After that, you'll be paying $30 or more every year to own this guy's 5-category potential.
Without an everyday left fielder, Robinson will probably receive up to 300 at-bats for the Cardinals next year. Thirty steals or more appears perfectly reasonable given LaRussa's use of both offensive and defensive replacements and Robinson's history in the minors. He's not going to help much on sim teams, but if St. Louis doesn't find anyone better by your draft, do your best to grab this guy anywhere below double-digits.
Shinjo should find about the same playing time in San Francisco as he received in New York last year, either in a centerfield platoon, or more likely, a role as starting right fielder. Nothing about his skills suggests the ability to be more than a 4th outfielder. I like him at a couple of bucks, but he just doesn't have the substantial upside in any category needed to warrant a higher price.
Write off his atrocious first half in an extreme pitchers' park in Baltimore and focus in his 2nd half numbers: 163AB, 28:35 BB:K, 12:1 SB:CS, and .276/.380/.405 BA/OBP/SLG. He can definitely be a reliable second baseman and leadoff hitter if he beats out Bobby Hill for the second base job, and even as a utility player, should easily earn into double-digits thanks to his speed potential. DeShields is also a prime candidate to get dumped near the trade deadline to a playoff team in need of a starting second basemen, so don't expect much in the future but enjoy the chance of a return to 30 steals.
Atlanta, Arizona, Boston, Chicago(AL), Chicago(NL), Cincinnati, Cleveland, Houston, Philadelphia, and San Diego are the only teams that, as of this writing, couldn't really use Rickey's skills next year in at least a platoon role. This brief analysis leaves twenty teams with a need for an OBP/speed machine and an opening for a right-handed LF or DH. Teams need to ignore Rickey's .230 BA for the last two years and focus on the .367 OBP, a mark superior to more than half the leadoff guys in baseball. More importantly, Rickey's 2001 marks of 81:84 BB:K in 379 AB and a 25:7 SB:CS (78%) ratio show that Rickey's still a potent offensive force. Rickey'll not earn the $40+ marks of the mid-80's, but even in a part-time role, expect another borderline double-digit performance, and there's no way you should need to pay close to that much to secure Rickey's services.
His 2002 value is almost all fluke BA, and I can't see him repeating this under almost any circumstance. Little has a much better chance of posting double-digit steals than a .300 BA next year. His minor league marks don't suggest much upside other than doubles and steals, and even a $1 bid might end up hurting you by the end of the year. He's really just taxi/reserve fodder.
Darr had a chance to grab a full-time role, but between injuries and relative ineffectiveness, he's now all the way down to the Padres' 4th outfielder and a prime piece of trade bait for when they're unexpectedly contending for the NL West title next year. He still shows promise as a platoon OF in a year or two, and certainly has 15/15 potential if he could stay healthy for 500 AB. However, there's little chance of him receiving even close to that many given San Diego's current depth. Keep your bids under $5 and hope for a trade to some place like Milwaukee with a desperate need for a starting centerfielder with good defense.
Delucci has produced solid averages across-the-board in his limited playing time. While he doesn't have great power potential, he'd be a very capable platoon partner for someone like Bautista. He's more likely to get stuck in a 4th or 5th outfielders role, and put up numbers similar to these. Don't bid more than a buck or two unless you know he's getting playing time.
Goodwin still steals at a good pace, and unless LA can find someone better, he's quite likely to find another few hundred at-bats, although probably lower in the order this year. Goodwin could easily be worth somewhere in the mid-teens if he can raise his average closer to his career .269 level. Watch spring training playing charts and lineups to see if he's more likely to be worth $10 or $20, and bid accordingly.
Rios missed a wonderful opportunity by tearing the ACL in his left knee in his very first game with the Pirates. If recovered fully by spring training as expected, he could easily find 500 at-bats and put up something like .270/25/75/5. He's not a long-term solution for the Pirates at any position, but he gives them a nice variety of good defensive outfielders with Giles, Mathews, and Adrian Brown. Those four, along with Kendall and Craig Wilson, should comprise the bulk of the outfield at-bats, but beware Derek Bell. If Rios finds a lot of spring training playing time, bid to $10 if you think he'll continue starting.
Agbayani slipped in almost every category as he missed a great opportunity to establish himself with the Mets. More disturbing, his plate discipline fell considerably, foretelling a potential future fall in BA . He still has a chance to rebound for a couple seasons, but all you should expect from Agbayani, even if the Mets don't make any more moves until after your draft, is about 250-300 AB and about $8 in value.
The Shawon-o-Meter will return to PacBell for another season, as Dunston's bat control allows him to maintain relatively solid averages without any plate discipline at all (2:32 BB:K ratio in 2001). He's shown off more power in recent seasons, and will help your team in direct proportion to the number of at-bats awarded him by Dusty Baker. I wouldn't take a chance on him under any circumstances, since he could just easily stick with $-5 if his BA catches up with his batting eye.
Martinez's skills have deteriorated from a relatively solid platoon-outfielder into a pinch-hitter at best. His plate discipline has been falling for two years, and even his meager power and speed gifts appear to have vanished. He might earn a small profit on a dollar bid, but you should probably avoid him since he doesn't have any upside at this point in his career.
Rivera's always walked at a barely acceptable level, but with almost three times as many career strikeouts as walks, he doesn't have the plate discipline to hold a full-time job. Someone needs to stick him back in AAA until he's learned the strike zone, especially since he still has latent power and speed skills that could help a team once harnessed. Don't hold your breath for any such development, as he's far more likely to bounce around as a 4th outfielder for several years on teams enamored of his defensive skills and only hoping that he can regain the promise of his youth without any organizational commitment to improve his batting ability.
He's reinvented himself over the last couple of years as one of the top half dozen pinch-hitters in the National League, and will return to Houston for another year in that role. I'm concerned that a drop of almost 50% in his BB:K rate will force his BA below acceptable levels, but I suspect he'll continue to earn a dollar or two for a couple more seasons. Don't use him as anything more than an injury replacement, since he really can't help you.
Perhaps the best bat handler in history finally makes the expected move to coaching. He never hit worse than .309 after his rookie season, and he certainly ranks as one of the finest contact hitters to every play the game. Upgrade all of San Diego State's hitting prospects, including Gwynn's son Anthony, as he apprentices for a year before assuming full control of State's program in 2003.
Now that Houston's handing him a full-time job and a probable 500 at-bats, its hard to not to predict 40 homers for someone with Ward's prodigious power gifts. It won't happen in 2001, or perhaps ever, until he learns to take a walk and give pitchers a reason to occasionally throw him strikes. He could turn in numbers similar to Richie Sexson's 2001, but something resembling Jeromy Burnitz's stat line might be more probable in the immediate future.
In his three minor league seasons with more than 450 at-bats, one each at A, AA, and AAA, Clark posted an OPS over .900 each time. He has exceedingly good plate discipline, tremendous power potential, and even regularly racked up double-digit steals in the minors. He's too old to have a great career, but he needs to start immediately for some organization willing to give a chance to a potential hitting machine. I'm trying to find a good comp for him like perhaps Brian Daubach, but Clark has better plate discipline than all of the older minor leaguers who've recently started for a few seasons. If he finds even a platoon job in 2002, grab him for under $5, and watch the profit accumulate.
Lawton was the best trading deadline NL FAAB speculation, and while not rewarding his owners with nearly the numbers they expected, he still produced enough steals to make him valuable. Now back in the AL with Cleveland and on a long-term contract, Lawton needs to defy history to earn his money. Most players similar to him have seen dramatic downturns in their skills, leaving them below replacement-level by the end of their contracts. If Lawton can retain his skills, he could easily post a couple years of $20+ values. Talk up his problems in New York, and grab him if at all possible, since he could show even more profit if he can combine his 1998 power levels with 2001's SB production.
Gant's skills showing slow deterioration, but he still retains the ability to be a productive platoon outfielder for a couple more seasons. With his BB:K falling below .5 for the first time in several years, his BA will likely slip to the .230 range, but he should find just enough playing to offset that with a dollop of power. Don't expect too much, and have a good grasp of his 2002 role before you pick him up.
As Christensen advanced through the minors, his speed showed marked improvement while his plate discipline continued to fall. He's a 5th outfielder right now, usable only for his speed and defense. While he remains young enough to see a few productive seasons, nothing from 2001 indicates that you should think of him as anything more than a last-option injury replacement.
Payton would bet set for life if they increased his salary based on the amount and length of his DL trips. His plate discipline doesn't support anything above this BA, and his power also doesn't appear overly impressive. The Mets are probably going to hand him the starting job in CF, a huge mistake unless he can somehow manage the best OBP of his major league career. 2001's .298 simply won't cut it on a probable playoff team.
Owens's low plate discipline and horrible SB% finally caught up to him. I'd expect a small rebound if they continue to employ him as a 4th outfielder, perhaps up to $6. Despite the chance he could always drop another 20 steal season on us, smart GMs will keep his OBP from doing much damage to their teams. Take a year off from owning him, and then see if he turns into another Brian L. Hunter in a reserve role.
Everyone knew that Hammonds would get injured, and the guys bidding him into the teens were the same ones that purchased a bunch of Enron options in late September. His career pattern strongly indicates that he'll hang around for 350 AB next year, but cut that number in half if the Brewers are stuck with him in center. He'll be just as likely to repeat these numbers as to rebound to the "upside" of 1999 in Cincinnati.
These numbers are probably around Murray's peak performance. If the Giants don't bring in another option, expect an almost exact repeat of 2001, along with a possible uptick in BA if he can remember how well he controlled the plate in 2000. I wouldn't want him around in anything more than a reserve role, since he doesn't have enough upside to warrant a dollar bid.
Mouton could always surprise with a dozen steals, but he's unlikely to receive enough playing time to surprise in that fashion. His BA is far more likely to put a nasty dent in your numbers, and his power potential is very small. There's no reason to pick him up in any capacity larger than a mid-season injury replacement.
While Collier's shown some on-base and speed ability in the minors, he's never performed acceptably at the major league level. He could surprise in his peak years, but I'd expect any statistical upturn to occur in AAA, with only the smallest increase in his major league time. He's another guy limited to an in-season injury replacement role.
He'll always be the poor man's Rickey, but Raines deserves a spot in the Hall as the other prototypical leadoff man of the last two decades. He still has every ounce of baseball smarts that he's ever owned, but the body just won't hold up long enough for him to make a serious contribution above a hundred at-bats as best. Raines hasn't struck out more times than he's walked in twenty years, and he'll make a fantastic first base, outfield, and speed coach when he's finally ready to hang it up. Judging by his .413 OBP last year, he should be able to hang on for one more year, potentially in a Montreal farewell.
Brown produced some very impressive AAA numbers despite the lack of any real plate discipline. He'll succeed in the majors due to his power potential and acceptable control of the strike zone. Don Baylor says that Brown will compete with Patterson for the CF job, but you shouldn't expect more than 200 at-bats. He has the ability to post double-digit value with that many at-bats, although I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't rise much above his 2001 levels.
One of the many Cub OF prospect of the early 90's that never received enough major league time to determine their ability to play in the big leagues, Jennings has established himself as a minor league journeyman over the last two season. Neither his plate discipline nor power warrants full-time play, so you should probably avoid him since his BA could easily hurt you. Watch for a AAA rebound to 1997 levels before considering him as a potential sleeper.
Sweeney's AAA numbers suggest he'll hang around as a AAAA player for a few more years. His upside is limited to a major league pinch-hitting job, as his defense is nothing special and he hasn't shown much more than doubles' power in the minors recently. Since he's never displayed much ability in the majors in the first place, I wouldn't risk him on my roster, but he's not a huge risk as he won't receive enough playing time to really hurt you.
Barkett has a history of solid plate discipline in the minors, but he hasn't shown enough power to earn consideration for a major league bench job. I expect some of his doubles' power will evolve into homers as he enters his power peak, leaving him a couple years away from a 4th outfielder job. There's no reason to consider him for a minor league pick, since I'll be surprised if he makes the majors again before the end of 2003.
On November 9th, Gilkey pled guilty to a DWI charge from April, his third DWI arrest in seven months. He could be sentenced to up to five years in prison, and he deserves every last day of it. Don't you even think about ever drafting him again, as Gilkey could have easily killed someone due to his immaturity and sheer incompetence at living. A pox on your house if he somehow winds up on your roster.
Bragg hasn't shown a lot of roto potential for a few years now, but his plate discipline has been acceptable in the past and he still owns stolen base potential. If he makes a club with an injury-prone starter, consider an endgame dollar gamble. Your odds aren't great, but he could post a year or two of double-digit values before he retires.
Still the best deaf player in the game, Pride should be able to hang on as a AAAA player for a few more years. His plate discipline remains acceptable and he has a little speed. Since he doesn't have much upside, you probably shouldn't use him as anything more than an injury replacement, but don't be too upset if you need him for two weeks as roster filler.
Today's Fantasy Rx: Eat more soup. After holiday feasts, soup fills you, warms you, and when necessary, vanquishes colds. A pot of broth with bouillon cubes (chicken, not gold) and some pasta tastes better than a lot of restaurant food and comes in under a dollar of serving. Plus, it tastes a lot better than Ramen.
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