December 23rd 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko We apologize for the delay in today's posts. Several unplanned phenomena occurred including sudden snow flurries, an overly engrossing Bears' game, and the appearance of two fire engines outside an adjoining building. On the bright side, along with a full 32 outfielder reviews and Jess' normal column, we finally finished our first Chicago Sports update since we launched the site. We cover most of the sports around town, so if you're interested in our take on local teams, please check out Good Chicago Sports.
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Despite earning the top NL PDV by two dollars, the fact that Bonds is still not the most valuable offensive player in either 4x4 or 5x5 makes a powerful statement about the value of these categories. His season ranks among the top few years in offensive production in baseball history, and yet doesn't appear nearly that impressive when considering the level of offensive talent elsewhere in the game. He certainly won't hit this level again, but there's no reason he can't stay in the mid-$30's for another few seasons.
When you finally give up on him after another injury-plagued season, he stays healthy for most of the year and earns a tidy profit. Everything in Walker's history indicate that he'll miss some time in 2002 for some various ailment. Any bids above $30 are incredibly risky even though he retains the skills to exceed even this year's lofty numbers.
His value will keep increasing as he starts learning to read pitchers and take better jumps. He led the league in both SB and CS, and he seems headed for even better places as he made significant gains in his walk rate and plate discipline in 2001. There's no reason that Pierre can't see .350/60 SB sometime in the next few years, and if you want to ice BA and steals, this is the one guy potentially worth that $40 bid.
On the other hand, for improving dominance in every category, no one beats Vlad the Impaler. Getting the green light boosted his value significantly this year at the expense of some power. There's no reason he can't combine both, potentially heading towards 40/40, especially as he's just now reaching his peak. In a better hitters' park, he might put up formerly unfathomable numbers. We spent an inflation-adjusted $50 on him this past season and he won the league for us, and as long as you think he'll be in the NL for the full year, he won't disappoint for anything under the high $30's.
Everyone kept mentioning how Bonds' lineup protection was so much better than Sammy's, and yet thanks to solid work by Ricky Gutierrez, Bill Mueller, Matt Stairs, and Fred McGriff, the four spots surrounding the #3 hole in Chicago had a higher OPS than in San Francisco. Sosa had a great year, but he certainly was not the MVP under any definition. With a walk rate that keeps increasing, this BA is for real and he should maintain consistent HR numbers around 55 for at least the next couple of years. With McGriff and Alou behind him, also expect his runs to increase even further. He's fun to own in 4x4, but he'll be gold in 5x5 next year.
One of the most impressive career years in a long time was obscured by even better years from two future Hall-of-Famers. Gonzalez's most impressive accomplishment is probably managing his triplets, but with the game-winning hit in the World Series, he already has enough baseball memories to last anyone for years. Certainly don't expect him to reach this high again, but with a walk rate that also shot up markedly, grab him for anything around $30.
His overall season wasn't nearly as impressive as just his first half numbers, but if he can consolidate his gains in 2002, he could take another step up into the .335/45/134 range within the next two years. While his walk rate is solid, his plate discipline did slide a little by the end of the year. If he can regain just a little of his previously-displayed skill, he'll be on top of these charts for many seasons to come.
Okay, so he didn't play on Yom Kippur. He still carried a weak Dodger offense almost into the playoffs. His season wasn't even as good as his year in 1999, so I still think he has one great season left that will leave him with a bushelful of MVP votes. Try to grab him next year, since I think that a lot of owners don't realize exactly how solidly he performed in every category.
With one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in recent memory, Abreu slipped under the radar due to a sudden drop in BA brought on by a rash of strikeouts. The source of this team-wide rash is quite likely deposed hitting coach Richie Hebner, and while I have serious doubts as to whether Abreu can rack over 30 steals again, he should be able to combine his power gains with a solid .300 BA to maintain a mid-$30's value. He loses a couple bucks in 5x5 if Rolen is dealt, but any gains by Pat Burrell could help offset a temporarily-lowered value.
He finally stayed healthy for an entire season and turned in a nice profit for most of his owners. Florida needs to deal him now before he gets injured again right through the end of his last season before free agency. I have concerns as to the sustainability of his BA since his plate discipline has been dropping for a couple years, but if he can play, he'll play well for a few more seasons.
Trading Giles would be the dumbest thing the Pirates could possibly do this year. He single-handedly gives them offensive potential, and while he's not the best player in the league, he certainly deserves his $9M/year salary. His walk rate took a dive this year, so he may not sustain an average above .300, but figure on him to keep his HR up while his RBI returns to more acceptable levels.
While Alou had a better season in 2000, he still maintained solid numbers across-the-board. In moving from the second best hitters' park in the league to a pitchers' park, he'll likely see a drop in BA and homers, but he should maintain his OBP and possibly even improve his R/RBI due to improved lineup protection replacing ciphers like Brad Ausmus. His advancing age will keep me from bidding over the mid-$20's, and you might want to hold the line a little lower if you want to insure against loss.
Doc's nephew hasn't posted an OBP under .407 in eight seasons. The Dodgers are losing games by not switching him up to the #3 spot instead of Green (who's never even cracked .390). He's ready to put up another great season, and anything up to $30 should earn a profit.
Drew would have been in the top few batters if David Wells hadn't broken the outfielder's hand with an ill-timed pitch. His numbers will shoot up if he can ever stay healthy for more than about 400 at-bats. With the departures of Lankford, McGwire, and Paquette, LaRussa will likely play Drew every day and hit him either third or fifth. With improving plate discipline and base-running ability, he might be the most likely player on this list to earn $40 for the first time next season.
Edmonds actually followed up his 2000 season very strongly, but gains in plate discipline and doubles were obscured by the drop in homers. He has the ability to combine the best features of both seasons, so another great year is certainly within his grasp. He's a slight injury risk due to his history, but I expect a 2002 value around $30.
It just doesn't feel like there's much outfield depth due to the uncertainties of injury, youth, and advanced age facing most of the players on this list. Neither Jordan's OBP or SLG deserves a lineup slot higher than fifth at best, and his plate discipline has been quietly falling for a few years now. A .260 BA is more likely than a return to .300, and he should be happy with a 20/80 year in 2002. Bid anything above the low teens, and you open yourself up to a lot of unnecessary risk.
Millar won't follow-up that strongly because his .314 BA was out of context with both his falling plate discipline and his career average marks. Even with another 400+ AB, he'll slip back to around $10, and Florida should be looking to upgrade, especially if they'd like their RF to hit second. Millar's usefulness will increase if he can quickly qualify for 1B and/or 3B, but since Lowell and Lee seem fairly set, I'm not sure where Millar fits into their plans. Monitor their spring training situation before making any bids.
Jess loves owning this guy because she successfully predicted his SB spike two years ago. The truly scary thing about his 36:107 BB:K plate discipline is that it represents a marked improvement from the strikeout highs of previous years. Overall, he maintained a barely-acceptable .331 OBP while improving both his BA and SLG. If Castillo can stay on-base and Florida solidifies the top of the order, Wilson could easily hit the high-$20's or more in a career year.
Once again he appears left without a chair as the music winds down. His significant skills are undeniable, but his plate discipline was as bad as it's been in years, and this sudden burst of homers in his mid-30's screams "unrepeatable power peak." Enough teams are looking for a solid outfielder so that he could easily land somewhere like Minnesota or San Francisco and repeat close to this level, but while I liked his chances for 2001, I'm equally skeptical of any further gains. Bid carefully, and don't expect more than about 400 at-bats.
Even if Philly leaves him stashed in the #8 hole, there's no way he should be playing every day. A .285 OBP is unacceptable enough even without the .375 SLG. He has roto value because his extreme AB numbers (628 or more for the past four years) create acceptable power and speed statistics. He's as vulnerable as any player in baseball to a sudden disappearance in value, since Burrell and Abreu are set and Marlon Byrd should be ready soon. Anything into double-digits for Glanville is a likely a risk that I wouldn't take.
His value drops now that he's likely in a straight-platoon despite the opportunities of the short right fence in Yankee Stadium. Vander Wal's plate discipline is already fading, and he's old enough where his power could also vanish quickly. I like the guy a lot as a pinch-hitter, but any bidding based on his 2001 values should guarantee you an unhappy loss in 2002..
His improvement has been slower than many had wished, but with four full years in the majors, Kotsay's still only 26 headed into 2002. While his plate discipline slipped a little, his walk rate increased, creating more SB and run opportunities. If San Diego leaves him alone in CF and the #2 hole, a .300/20/80/20 season would not be out of the questions. Figure on 85% of that, and bid him to the high teens while hoping for a very green light from Bochy. We own him at $4 for one more year and think enough of his prospects and that developing lineup where we'll likely extend him a year to $9.
Devo's resurgence still only left him as barely a league-average centerfielder, and after this little power spike, I suspect his numbers will head south quickly. Since he still hasn't found a home for 2002, you could very well be looking at a repeat of 2000 stats. Not too many teams want to give even platoon at-bats to a 39-year old CF with average speed, failing power, and an OBP about to drop off the charts. Bid $2 if you like some risk, but he could just as easily cost you $4.
Somebody get Kirt Manwaring away from Ochoa, since your numbers are supposed to increase when you get to Colorado. His plate discipline slipped in his first season with more than 282 at-bats, and Ochoa's number were held down by an unacceptable 57% stolen base rate. He's now shown the ability to post nice roto numbers but also demonstrated that his numbers fall with more exposure. An Ochoa/Hollandsworth platoon in left for Colorado could earn them both $20 salaries while keeping all their averages high.
His power disappeared as quickly as it first appeared, and Finley's improved plate discipline from 2000 started slipping again. The Snakes can hope that he can maintain this level for another year or two, but he also fall well below replacement-level and they might actually have to play Durazo or Dellucci every day while Bautista covers CF. Of course, that situation would just mean that they'll give Jose Guillen 500 at-bats since he has more experience than their other backups. If you go into double digits for Steve, you're taking an unnecessary risk.
Rondell could go Cliff-Floyd all over New York next year. His plate discipline has improved for three straight seasons while his SLG has stayed right around .500. If the Yankees rely on him to drive in batters instead of creating opportunities on the bases, he should be able to stay healthy enough for a third seasons of 500+ at-bats while posting a solid $20+ value. Don't be afraid to run away from the bidding if you hear even a hint of an injury in spring training.
Bobby Cox needs to just stick Jones in the #4 slot for the next five years and watch his power numbers bloom. With Furcal, Giles, and Chipper creating plenty of RBI opportunities ahead of him, Jones can focus on making contact and avoiding the strikeout spike that ruined his 2001 season. He should easily rebound back to 2000 levels even with a slightly reduced number of at-bats. The Braves' offensive potential rests on his ability to put up some big numbers, and while there might be a $40 season sometime in the next several years, there's no reason to even bid to $30 for 2002.
All his skills are just slightly off from his career highs since joining the Reds. He's at the point where he either needs to bust out with a Bondsian power splurge or risk becoming just be another overpaid veteran. If he's healthy, I'm betting on the former, and since there's no good reason for him not to club 50 again, bid to $35 or so if you want the power on your team. Cincinnati's lineup is going to start showing rapid improvement with Casey and Boone in their primes and Dunn, Kearns, and Gookie Dawkins hitting the majors soon, and Griffey should be the centerpiece of their renaissance heading into the new park in 2003.
Split the difference between 2000 and 2001 to find his probable 2002 stats. His plate discipline actually improved slightly, and since he'll likely take Alou's #5 slot with Daryle Ward hitting behind him, there's a good chance he could approach the previous levels. Expect something like .300/35/110 for now, and bid accordingly.
While he put up monster numbers in a little over a month, Hollandsworth still can't control the strike zone to save his ever-problematic BA. His 2002 averages are way over his head, but if he's healthy and in a straight platoon, he should be able to improve on these values nicely. Don't plan on much long-term success, since he's approaching free agency, is already past his prime, and shouldn't be in Colorado's plans for too many more years.
Despite a season not much different than 2002, the Braves appear to have come to their senses and will pull Surhoff from a full-time role after a decade and a half. His plate discipline is still solid, but the power is probably gone for good, which leaves him likely playing out another year or two with numbers similar to Wally Joyner's last few years. Since he does have a weaker batting eye than Joyner at a similar stage of his career, I'm not sure that I'd gamble more than about $3 or $4 on Surhoff's 2002 stats.
Bubba's locked into a long-term deal and should find about 400+ at-bats as the primary right-handed sub for Lankford and Klesko. His plate discipline is acceptable for his power potential, and he should be able to increase these numbers in a second year of significant playing time. Up his price another couple bucks if they manage to trade Lankford, but be willing to deal him for someone younger with more upside.
We'll review National Leaguers with Single-Digit PDV on Wednesday. Tomorrow we have the first of our two special holiday-themed articles.
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