American League First Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Casey Blake		37	9	.243	1	4	3	3	1B-8
BAL / MIN		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1		1		1
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	0		1		1		1

Blake's been stuck at AAA for all but 92 at-bats over the past three years when he should be in the majors as a Ron Coomer-type bench player. He possesses neither great power nor plate discipline, but he's shown enough in both of those categories to warrant some major league time. The best he can hope for is to steal someone's job as an injury-replacement, and he should look for a team with an injury-prone third basemen and no capable replacement when has the chance. Philadelphia should have a 3B opening in a few months and might be a good destination.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Wil Cordero		268	67	.250	4	21	0	30	1B-22, DH-53
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		1		0		1		8
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	1		2		1		1		13

Cleveland's stuck with one more year of an overpriced Cordero, although he has a good chance to gain at-bats considering that most of the players left on the Indians are either very injury-prone or young enough to receive frequent benchings. We haven't owned Cordero for years due in large part to lingering feelings over his legal problems, and he fortunately hasn't really been good enough to warrant our attention. When a player does something he shouldn't, we tend to avoid him until such a time when we really need his skills to move up in the first division. We've been able to avoid Wil, and with his plate discipline and power at its lowest point in years, I don't see any reason to own him in the future.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Wally Joyner		148	36	.243	3	14	1	14	1B-39
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	0		1		0		0		1
2001 Age: 39	5x5:	0		1		1		1		1

Wallyworld reopened in Anaheim for the first time since 1991 for a final 53 games before closing forever. His plate discipline was solid to the end, and Joyner finished with an acceptable walk rate a little over 11% while maintaining a superb 833:825 BB:K ratio. He never followed up on the promise shown by his .528 SLG in 1987, a level he never approached within 40 points again. Joyner had a very respectable career as an established journeyman, finishing back where he started in 1986. While certainly not a Hall-of-Famer or even much above an average player, he's been a solid addition to the rotisserie world for fifteen years.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Michael Cuddyer		18	4	.222	0	1	1	1	1B-5
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		0		0
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-1		0		0		0

Cuddyer had a great 2001, improving every offensive aspect of his game except his speed. I still remain concerned about his immediate future because this success occurred while repeating AA New Britain. Be extremely cautious if he doesn't receive at least a half season of AAA while posting impressive numbers. He still has an upside that should allow him to be one of the best third basemen in the game, but he's not ready yet. Since he has a history of struggling when he first advances a level, be doubly hesitant whenever he gets called up, but remain ready to grab him when his owner grows dissatisfied after a few weeks of a falling team BA.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ken Harvey		12	3	.250	0	2	0	1	1B-3
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		0		0
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-1		0		0		0

Harvey the Wonder Hampster needs a year of AAA before KC should even consider starting him full-time. His extravagant batting averages remain quite unsupported by his plate discipline, and even though he's never hit below .335, his AA walk rate fell precipitously from his stats in the lower minors. With only 314 AA at-bats under his belt, a full year of AAA is necessary before determining if Harvey hits enough to overcome his free-swinging tendencies in the majors. Knowing the Royals, he'll probably be their Opening Day DH. Maybe Rob Neyer's right and they should just contract KC to put him out of his misery, but we think their stadium looks too nice on TV to even consider voting the Royals off the MLB gravy train.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Andy Abad		1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	1B-1
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		0		0		0
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	-1		0		0		0

Another minor league veteran given his first shot at the majors by Oakland this season, Abad was stuck in the Boston system for seven years before his parole a year ago. He wisely chose Oakland as a minor league free agent. Abad hits enough to deserve a bench job as at least a pinch-hitter for any team in baseball, and his continued rejection by the Majors in favor of players like Ryan Jackson (see next entry) proves that baseball teams still make enough money to allow truly bad decisions. Wait for Abad to find somewhat consistent playing time before picking him up, but he could easily earn a few bucks profit if some team will ignore his lack of tools long enough to give his bat a chance.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ryan Jackson		118	25	.212	2	11	3	19	1B-35, OF-34
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-1		-1		-1		-1
2001 Age: 29	5x5:	0		0		0		0

He's shown no power, plate discipline, or ability to improve in either category in close to five hundred major at-bats. You shouldn't be playing fantasy baseball if you think drafting him is a good idea, and you should only grab him in-season if your team is receiving a quantity discount from your HMO. Detroit only keeps re-signing him because their pizza-stained paperwork reads "Randy Johnson", and then they're always shocked when he tells them in the spring that he doesn't pitch.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Nick Johnson		67	13	.194	2	8	0	6	1B-15
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-2		-1		-1		-1		5
2001 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-1		-1		-1		Res

Johnson's ready to play every day in the majors and should receive at least 400 at-bats as New York's primary DH. His slow start at the plate still managed to impress Joe Torre, guaranteeing him a long look for 2002. He should be playing 1B as most scouts claim he has Gold Glove-caliber defense, but first has reportedly been promised to some guy with a beer gut and soul patch from out west. Hope for a trade to the NL where Johnson can show off all his skills. Regarding his injury and drop in plate discipline, we were told very pointedly at the AFL Symposium that Johnson's BB:K decline was due entirely to opening up his swing to hit for more power. If he can maintain his current levels in the majors, his upside starts with Mark Grace, and he could mature into the second-best homegrown Yankee first baseman ever.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Olmedo Saenz		305	67	.220	9	32	0	33	1B-28, DH-58
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-2		-2		Res
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	-1		0		-1		0		1

He could repeat these numbers as a primary right-handed platoon 1B or DH next season, but I think he'll be lucky to maintain his roster spot considering that he's past his peak seasons and his skills slumped significantly. Consider him in a reserve role only unless you hear really good news from spring training. Seanz could still rebound to a $10 season at some point, but I have a very hard time envisioning that performance for 2002.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Larry Barnes		40	4	.100	1	2	0	2	1B-16
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	-4		-3		-2		-2
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	-3		-2		-2		-2

Anyone who expected him to win and hold the first base job doesn't know the first thing about evaluating minor leaguers. Barnes only posts a successful OPS when repeating an upper minor league level, and all of his trends indicate these numbers weren't that far from his ceiling. I doubt he'll ever earn a value over $5 unless he gets really lucky in a small number of at-bats. Even if he somehow makes a future major league roster, you have no business owning him on your team unless he happens to catch Dan O'Dowd in a weak moment and during a severe Helton injury.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Eric Munson		66	10	.152	1	6	0	4	1B-17
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	-4		-3		-3		-2
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	-3		-2		-2		-2

Maybe there's something in the air in Detroit and Pittsburgh that causes otherwise bad general managers to veer even more horribly off course and move high draft picks from positions of incredible upside to rather useless lineup roles. His numbers would appear relatively good for a catching prospect, but Munson's at least a full year away from even being an acceptable major league catcher. He only improved his AA stats in his second season there, and he'll need 500 at-bats at AAA before Detroit should even consider another promotion. The stupid major league contract that Randy Smith gave him should only leave him maybe one more minor league option, so Munson better shown some solid development this year, since Detroit appears stuck with him in the majors in 2003 regardless of his actual performance. Giving up on the 3rd overall pick in the draft simply isn't an option, but the Tigers should be willing to listen to offers for Munson, who might still bring a decent bounty in trade from a prospect-deficient team.

Most of the guys on this list are still solid prospects, a high number of probable AAA players that lends another layer of depth to the potent AL starting class from yesterday. First base is a very strong position for many of these teams. Considering the talent that some AAAA guys like Abad possess, there's no reason for a team to award over a hundred at-bats to anyone that isn't either a potential long-term solution at the position or a pre-arbitration former minor league veteran.

We'll review American League minor league free agents and AAA/AA prospects tomorrow.

The Twelve Days of Outfielders will begin on Sunday. We're going to begin with the top third of National Leaguers before spending Monday and Tuesday on some holiday-related fare. We'll resume NL outfielders on Wednesday.

You won't want to miss the holiday articles, as I finally get to show off my diverse writing "talents" on something besides player reviews.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Are there any players that you refuse to own for off-the-field behavior? Have you ever reconsidered your decision when you needed such a player to win your league? Please send in any stories you might have regarding these issues, and we'll discuss them in a future column.

Also, a big Thank You to Todd Zola of Mastersball.com for referring us to a website with the Elias arbitration information on it.