Welcome to our fifth week of position reviews. We're discussing first basemen this week, beginning with the draftable NL players today.

We currently plan to post this week's articles in the following order:
Monday: National Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Tuesday: National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Wednesday: Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the NL.
Thursday: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value.
Friday: American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value.
Saturday: Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the AL.

National League First Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Todd Helton		587	197	.336	49	146	7	132	1B-157
COL Rockies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	42		40		32		31		39
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	42		38		31		29		37

Despite increasing his home run output by seven and nearly matching his runs and RBI from a year ago, Helton nevertheless feel short of his 2000 season in almost every objective category. While his SLG only fell by 10 points to .685, his OBP fell over 30 points to .432, a drop accompanied by a decrease in his plate discipline from 103:61 BB:K last year to 2001's 98:104 BB:K. He remains the best BA buy in the game, as he's averaged 159 games played over the last three years. There's no reason for him not to post another several seasons around $40, and if you want to fit him into your budget, he's the pinnacle of an NL first base class currently much weaker than its AL counterpart.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Ryan Klesko		538	154	.286	30	113	23	105	1B-145
SD Padres		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	28		27		21		20		27
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	28		26		21		20		29

Klesko appears quite energized as one of the leaders of the Padres. He's still in his power peak, so there's no reason he can't exceed these homer totals over the next couple years. With more consistent production in front of him instead of Damian Jackson, Klesko's RBI are also poised to rise. A $30 bid seems justified based on his rising attributes combined with a potentially very good San Diego ballclub.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jeff Bagwell		600	173	.288	39	130	11	126	1B-160
HOU Astros		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	27		26		20		20		34
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	28		26		21		20		36

While his decline's started, I still expect he'll finish very high in the MVP voting sometime in the next three years. The BA drop was expected due to plate discipline that's dropped from a 1999 career high of 149:127 BB:K to 107:116 in 2000, finally reaching 106:135 this year. His command of the strike zone appears in intact; he just can't quite get around on every pitch like he did a few years ago. He's still a roto stud, providing the 2nd most consistent production at the position, but his days of hovering around $40 in value appear mostly over.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Sean Casey		533	165	.310	13	89	3	69	1B-136
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	20		20		15		15		29
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	20		19		15		14		29

We like this guy so much that we paid $39 for him in an inflation-boosted NL 4x4 last spring; we then rebuilt in May, using Casey to grab a $2 Pujols. He's a great clubhouse presence and should be a solid roto pick for many years. Unfortunately, that's short of many people's expectations, and here's what you can expect from him in the near future.

His BA is going to thunder upwards in 2002. He drastically improved his plate discipline this season, indicating that an average spike should appear soon, probably back to the .320 range. What's not apparent is that the power that so many expect from him isn't there yet.

Baseball Weekly's Mat Olkin is studying how trends in hitters' groundball/flyball ratios affect their power numbers. Batters who show decreases in ratios appear likely to produce more homers, but Casey's ratios are not only relatively high, they appear on the rise. There's no reason to expect a power surge until he starts driving the ball more, but he should maintain significant value hitting in front of a power-packed heart-of-the-order if the Reds don't deal him for pitching or even more outfielders.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Richie Sexson		598	162	.271	45	125	2	94	1B-158
MIL Brewers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	19		18		14		14		23
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	20		18		15		14		21

We know he strikes out a ton, but the Brewers really shouldn't concern themselves with Sexson's production. If he can maintain an OBP around .350 with a SLG around .550, he can anchor their lineup for years to come. The power output isn't a surprise, although it's subject to a fall with a probable decrease in at-bats. Anything in the $20-25 range appears fair for his power, and only go more than that if you can take a potential BA hit.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mark Grace		476	142	.298	15	78	1	66	1B-135
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	15		15		12		12		13
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	15		15		12		11		11

I find this fluke ranking to be more a product of the lack of progress by guys like the Lees than a sign of any real improvement by Grace. His power saw a slight increase, but his plate discipline and OBP are starting to fall. He's old enough where his stats could drop off rapidly, even though he'll always have some value due to an above average BA. With his contract expiring at the end of 2002 and several top 1B prospects in the system, I fully expect the Snakes to sign him to at least a two-year extension before he joins the broadcasting ranks.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Derrek Lee		561	158	.282	21	75	4	83	1B-156
FLO Marlins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	14		14		11		11		17
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	15		15		12		11		17

Speaking of the Lees, Derrek's statistics have tracked fairly closely to Richie Sexson's numbers during the same years in their careers. Sexson is a year older than Lee, and after consolidating his 2000 breakout year with improved plate discipline in 2001 despite a slight drop in most stats, he should be primed to "Go Sexson" in 2002. Bid to the mid-20's in expectation of close to 40 homers, and Lee could key the resurgence of the entire Florida team into playoff competition.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Craig Wilson		158	49	.310	13	32	3	27	1B-26
PIT Pirates		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	9		9		7		7
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	8		8		6		6

Wilson's power is right in line with his minor league numbers, although the .390 OBP is somewhat of a surprise. He's obviously a better player than Kevin Young right now, and the Pirates need to start him somewhere. While he'll strike out as much as Young, his other stats should be better across the board. There's no reason he can't approach a value in the high teens in 2002 with a full-time job.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Travis Lee		555	143	.258	20	90	3	75	1B-156
PHI Phillies		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	8		8		6		6		12
2001 Age: 26	5x5:	9		10		7		7		12

Lee declined over the last two years before rebounding in 2001 - a rebound all the way up to his 1998 rookie numbers, albeit with increased plate discipline. He remains on the verge of a real breakout season for third straight year, and you need to gamble in the low teens while hoping for a $20 to flash up at the end of 2002.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Fred McGriff		170	48	.282	12	41	0	27	1B-49
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	6		6		4		5
2001 Age: 37	5x5:	5		6		4		5

McGriff rebounded from a slightly down 2000 to post All-Star caliber stats both before and after his trade to the Cubs. They should be quite pleased with his probable level of production next year, since even a decrease back to his 2000 numbers would be an improvement over their limited power at the position for the previous thirteen seasons or so. Don't expect much over $20, but he could easily return that if he stays healthy in back of a still-peaking Sammy.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Lee Stevens		542	133	.245	25	95	2	77	1B-152
MON Expos		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	5		6		4		4		14
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	7		8		6		6		12

These next few veteran first sackers ruined many owners' seasons through only earning around a third of their probable auction salaries. I'm surprised that all these guys fell off about the same amount in the same year, but such are the risks involved in drafting older ballplayers. Both Stevens' walk and strikeout rates increased this season, leaving me to wonder if he simply got tired of swinging in front of empty stadiums. His power's starting to drop, and without an acceptable OBP at his peak, he won't continue to have much roto value at all.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Todd Zeile		531	141	.266	10	62	1	66	1B-149
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		6		4		4		11
2001 Age: 35	5x5:	7		7		5		6		12

Zeile's strikeout rate shot up while his extra-base hits dropped almost in half. He's still a decent hitter but isn't really a starting first basemen. He'll either drop down to the low single digits, entering free agency with the hope of receiving a NRI, or he can rebound to double-digit value in the #6 hole of a revitalized Met lineup, allowing him at least one more guaranteed contract. His skills are still solid enough, so I'm betting on the latter in anticipation of grabbing him at $10 again in 2002.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Matt Stairs		340	85	.250	17	61	2	48	1B-89, OF-23
CH Cubs		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	5		5		4		4		8
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	5		6		4		5		11

I'm stunned by the lack of interest in Stairs on the free agent market. While he's nothing special in overall ability, an .848 OPS against RHP should warrant a million or two as a platoon outfielder. Several teams are in desperate need for cheap left-handed outfield power to hit in the lower half of the lineup, and the major league free agent list pretty much begins and ends with Stairs. He likely only has another solid two or three years left, but he can remain a productive player on any team at an affordable salary. Gamble a few bucks, and hope for $10 if he gets enough at-bats.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Andres Galarraga		156	45	.288	7	35	0	17	1B-41
SF Giants		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	4		5		4		4
2001 Age: 40	5x5:	4		5		3		4

The Amazing Mouthwash Man (say his last name out loud three times quickly if you don't believe me) put together a nice little stretch back in the NL. This may be the end of the line for the Cat since he probably should stay in the Senior Circuit and almost every other 1B job seems full. If anyone wants to get creative, he'd fit nicely at most of his former homes, including platooning with Stevens in Montreal, bashing lefties in St. Louis, or providing Veteran Leadership for the young Braves' offense.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Kevin Young		449	104	.232	14	65	15	53	1B-137
PIT Pirates		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	5		5		4		4		13
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	5		6		4		5		14

Like many players who first breakout in their late-20's, Young's skills appear to be disappearing almost as fast as they first emerged. He has no business starting for a team with guys like Craig Wilson, and we've heard rumors that Pittsburgh might just eat the rest of his contract. I'm not sure if that's the best course of action since a hot month or two will suddenly give him trade value, but its certainly preferable than watching him "anchor" the lineup for another dreadful season.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Erubiel Durazo		175	47	.269	12	38	0	34	1B-38
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	4		5		3		4		11
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	4		5		3		4		10

He's not essential to own, but few other players have this much upside and remained buried on the bench behind inferior players. With a full-time job, Durazo could earn close to $30, and while his plate discipline appeared a little soft in 2001, he historically improves as he receives more regular playing time. Pay careful attention to his probable role in the spring. If he even has a platoon role in RF, bid to the high teens and hope for injuries to his teammates.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Greg Colbrunn		97	28	.289	4	18	0	12	1B-14
ARI Diamondbacks		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		3		2		2		2
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	1		3		1		2		Res

He's almost as qualified to start as Durazo and yet he's also stuck in a pinch-hitting role on Metamucil, Inc. Colbrunn will earn your buck, but his upside is far smaller than most other players since no one appears to trust him with a full-time role any more. He's definitely a guy to pay serious attention to if available on FAAB during the year, and he'd make a fantastic Ultra/taxi pickup, especially as insurance to Grace or Durazo.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Julio Franco		90	27	.300	3	11	0	13	1B-23
ATL Braves		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	2		3		2		2
2001 Age: 39?	5x5:	1		3		1		2

He's somewhere between 38 and 50, and his Mexican League MLEs were off the charts. He could continue to produce in a limited role indefinitely, but I wouldn't take the chance on him. There are simply too many variables involved that would invite his statistics to suddenly take a sharp turn downwards, even assuming he can stay healthy for much of next season.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
D.T. Cromer		57	16	.281	5	12	0	7	1B-8
CIN Reds		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	1		2		1		2
2001 Age: 30	5x5:	0		2		0		1

Cromer's mashed the ball at AAA for a few years now, and its about time someone gave him a chance at a larger role. His window's almost closed but he's still in his probable power peak, allowing him the ability to really help a team desperate for some 1B power against righties. I doubt he'll have much of a role in Cincinnati if he returns, but his statistics indicate the potential for several dollars of value if given the opportunity.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mark Johnson		118	30	.254	6	23	0	17	1B-21
NY Mets		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:L	4x4:	1		2		1		1
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	1		2		1		2

Not to be confused with LHP Mark Johnson or Mark L. Johnson, White Sox catcher, Mark P. Johnson has relatively good plate discipline but seems limited to a pinch-hitting role due to a label assigned several seasons ago. He won't hurt you as a FAAB pickup, but he really doesn't belong on any team, either real or roto.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Eric Karros		438	103	.235	15	63	3	42	1B-119
LA Dodgers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		1		1		1		20
2001 Age: 33	5x5:	1		3		1		2		17

Karros' roto stats finally caught up with his sim value, and none of his skills indicate much hope for a rebound. The Dodgers are looking to replace him, and your roster decision should occur before theirs does. There's no reason to roster Karros next season unless you can grab him at only a buck or two and hope his counting numbers balance out his probably horrible average.

Early conclusions: 2001 was an awful year for NL First Basemen. The young players that most expected to step through with breakout years mostly failed with the exception of Sexson, and several previous effective if not overly good veterans brought severe loss to their fantasy teams. There's a lot of upside here if the GMs will allow a changing of the guard to bring in guys like Wilson and Durazo in lieu of the expensive deadweights still employed under long-term contracts.

We'll review National Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Find us a list of the 2001 Elias rankings. We have the designated draft pick compensation for each free agent, but after extensive searching, we still haven't found the numerical assignments on which the A/B/C rankings are based. Neither Baseball Weekly nor Baseball America appear to have published them, so if you know where we can locate the rank of everyone who appeared in the majors this year, please e-mail me at the below address.