American League Third Basemen with Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Corey Koskie		562	155	.276	26	103	27	100	3B-150
MIN Twins		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	25		25		19		19		16
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	25		24		19		18		17

Koskie finally puts it all together in a career year right on schedule. The steals certainly surprised everyone, but his power numbers have been rising for a few seasons. Plus, this was his 3rd full year in the majors, and despite being a little old for such dramatic improvement, there's nothing overly unexpected about his season. The Twins have a young lineup maturing together, meaning everyone can benefit exponentially from even one or two dramatic increases in OBP or SLG. Together with the maturity of the pitching staff, 2001 shouldn't have been much of a surprise, and I think there's a good chance that Koskie can follow up very strongly.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Eric Chavez		552	159	.288	32	114	8	91	3B-149
OAK Athletics		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	24		23		18		18		20
2001 Age: 23	5x5:	23		22		17		17		23

I have no doubt at all that Chavez is heading towards a $40 season in the near future. Even without Jason Giambi in the lineup, Chavez should continue to mature in all facets of the game. We know that Billy Beane will bring in a top (.900-.950+ OPS) hitter to replace Giambi in the #3 spot, allowing Chavez to settle into the middle of the lineup and focus on waiting for his pitch. He's grown a lot in two years, but considering many prospects are barely in AAA at his age, he should continue improving for several more years.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Troy Glaus		588	147	.250	41	108	10	100	3B-159
ANA Angels		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	28		27		21		21		32
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	28		26		21		20		31

Almost his entire drop in value from last year is due to his decline in batting average, a problem not helped by the free-swinging approach of Angels' hitting coach Mickey Hatcher. Glaus certainly has the skills to rebound, but the uncertainty surrounding both Anaheim's lineup, ownership, and even franchise status make him a slightly risky pick. Draft him for power alone and hope for a decent BA; you shouldn't be ashamed if you spent a 1st round draft pick on him since he did hit 41 HR with 10 SB, and the RBI/R drop-off isn't his fault. Ownership employs Garret Anderson, not Glaus.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Jose Macias		488	131	.268	8	51	21	62	3B-89, OF-29
DET Tigers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	14		13		10		10
2001 Age: 27	5x5:	13		13		10		10

There but for the grace of an intelligent manager, Macias did not help the Tigers in any meaningful way last season. His .316 OBP and .391 SLG were downright awful even for the very weak AL third base situation, and while the speed was nice, he really had no business receiving nearly as many at-bats as he did. I guarantee you that most owners will not realize that Macias earned solid double digits last year, so you probably want to consider picking him up. Ten dollars is probably too much even if he comes close to repeating this season, but see if you can sneak him by for half that at the beginning of the draft, and he should grab at least a dozen bags for you.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Scott Brosius		428	123	.287	13	49	3	57	3B-120
NY Yankees		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	12		12		9		9		4
2001 Age: 34	5x5:	12		12		9		9		6

Brosius claimed he retired for personal reasons, but I see no reason why the Yankees didn't want him back for another year. He was good enough to merit serious consideration for the All-Star team for non-nepotism reasons, and anyone who owned him likely found their single digit investment nicely doubled. He's as likely to repeat this season in 2002 as Ventura is to rebound back up to this level, and considering teams appear willing to deal for Justice from the Mets, I suspect the Yankees could have dumped Justice and not taken back over eight million in salary in return. Many analysts have derided Brosius over the years for not really contributing to the Yankees' championships; at least he went out with his best season in three years.

After five of these guys, I'm noticing a distinct trend as I modify a copied file of the top NL third basemen. For most of their values, I'm simply dropping the $ by 10. If Rolen and Cirillo wind up in the Junior Circuit, some of this trend will be balanced, but taken as a whole, the AL is much weaker at third than the NL, a more extreme split than perhaps any other position. Several high-upside prospects could help change that trend quickly, and Blalock and Henson will make a league with Glaus and Chavez look a lot more comparable to Jones, Nevin, Ramirez, Beltre, Pujols, etc.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Mike Lamb		284	87	.306	4	35	2	42	3B-74
TEX Rangers		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	10		10		7		7		Res
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	9		10		7		7		Res

The Rangers had their seasons all screwed up this year, allowing March to go out with Lamb, and then letting summer return with Lamb. Even after skipping six weeks of play, he still managed to contribute enough to register as the 6th most valuable primary 3B in the AL. I strongly suspect he'll be dealt soon, since they can use recently acquired Herb Perry to sub at third until Blalock is ready. Lamb might not have a great career, but he's certainly capable of starting for a team with little other talent at the position, like Detroit or as a replacement for Rolen in Philly.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
David Bell		470	122	.260	15	64	2	62	3B-134
SEA Mariners		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		7		5		6		6
2001 Age: 28	5x5:	8		8		6		6		5

One of the biggest travesties in All-Star history was avoided when Cal Ripken magically picked up a significant numbers of votes in the last week to prevent someone no better than the 5th best AL 3B (at best) from staying in Seattle for the game. Bell can help a team off the bench but really doesn't deserve to start. Many people expect him to wind up replacing Cirillo at third for Bell's dad's Rockies, a move that will do more to cause nausea among roto owners as they bid him to $20 and $30 than it helps Colorado to win anything.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Shea Hillenbrand		468	123	.263	12	49	3	52	3B-129
BOS Red Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	7		7		5		5
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	7		8		6		6

His season was right in line with MLEs from last year, a set of stats that also indicated that Hillenbrand had little business in the majors. Boston's inability to field a starting infield kept them out of the playoffs last year, and returning Shea to next year's roster will hold them back from reaching any 2002 potential. Hillenbrand's walk rate doesn't even support this BA, and any bid above a buck or two is too much of a risk. He's another guy that stirred a frenzy on one draft day when Jim Williams announced that Hillenbrand had won the starting 3B job as part of the set Boston lineup that lasted about three games.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Joe Randa		581	147	.253	13	83	3	59	3B-137
KC Royals		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	6		6		5		5		15
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	7		8		6		6		20

Randa has the ability to bounce back and potentially triple these stats, but his upside remains limited in the weak KC lineup. His BA shouldn't break .300 again, but he can earn you a few points there for the next year or two. I have a feeling that he'll still have one more power spike even though there's not much to support my instinct, other than a general conviction that owning him for yet another year will finally pay-off.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Felipe Lopez		177	46	.260	5	23	4	21	3B-47
TOR Bluejays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	3		4		3		3
2001 Age: 21	5x5:	3		4		3		3

He's been rushed as much as Toronto's other hitting prospects, a set of promotions that leaves me divided: I think he should have another couple months in AAA, but I also have a lot of faith in Ricciardi's decisions. He'll move back to shortstop for at least the beginning of 2002, although I think Izturis has enough potential where Lopez might get shifted back to 3B by the end of the year. Either way, he'll likely push $10 immediately while qualifying at both 3B and SS, so bid appropriately if he's available in your keeper league.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Travis Fryman		334	88	.263	3	38	1	34	3B-96
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		4		3		3		19
2001 Age: 32	5x5:	4		4		3		3		14

Fryman's myriad injuries left him competing for a job that should have never been questioned in the first place, a vain attempt that resulted in worse overall numbers had he simply rested in the first place. I fully expect him to have another very solid year in one of the next two years, and a $12 bid is probably justified based on his place in that lineup alone. However, if they don't pick up a real starting 2B and sign a power bat for the heart of the order to replace Gonzalez, dial his value down a few bucks; I expect Mark Shapiro to find some OBP somewhere, but Cleveland will be in trouble if he doesn't.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Russ Branyan		315	73	.232	20	54	1	48	3B-72, OF-33
CLE Indians		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	3		3		2		3		5
2001 Age: 25	5x5:	4		5		3		4		12

Branyan is a Grand Master of the Three True Outcomes with almost 54% of his plate appearances resulting in a home run, walk, or strikeout. He has no place in the Indians' new focus on pitching and defense, and Shapiro needs to deal him for a competent 2B, perhaps someone like Mark Ellis of Oakland if Beane thinks Thad Bosley can hone Branyan's plate discipline. His value to a roto team is completely dependant on the other BA in your lineup, and you won't see us bidding more than about $5 unless we own Manny, JuanGon, and a couple other high average bats to balance his BA. He's one of the best high-risk, high-reward picks in the game.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Herb Perry		285	73	.256	7	32	2	38	3B-68
CH White Sox		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	3		3		2		3		6
2001 Age: 31	5x5:	4		4		3		3		3

In the Bard's Tale II: The Destiny Knight adventure computer game, the following is one of the top spells in the game, available only to Level 7 Wizards:

SUMMON HERB: summons Herb to join your party. Herb is really busy, but he'll hang out with your party for a while if you need him.

Perry helps a team in a similar way. He won't win any games by himself, but he does give you a relatively cheap bat to occasionally start at 3B or 1B while also providing a solid pinch-hitter. He'll easily double your $2 investment and could even do a lot better if he gets serious playing time in Arlington next year.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Aubrey Huff		411	102	.248	8	45	1	42	3B-73, DH-20
TB Devil Rays		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:L    T:R	4x4:	2		2		1		2		6
2001 Age: 24	5x5:	3		3		2		3		7

Huff is another marvelous example of the sheer stupidity that the greenhouse-like effects of Tropicana Field can have on Devil Rays' personnel. He was ready to start in the majors a year ago, but they traded for Vinny Castilla while dumping Cory Lidle. He was ready to start at the beginning of spring training, but they brough back Castilla before releasing him. Now he's ready to start right now, and suddenly Jared Sandberg is the third basemen of the future. I don't really care about his perceived defensive limitations; Huff can earn $20 once he's an established full-time player, and more importantly, we're counting on him to help anchor one of our teams at $5 this year. If he only earns that much in a part-time role, I certainly hope that we'll at least be able to take solace at the sound of Chuck LaMar's butt joining the overcrowded unemployment line.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R		Position(s)
Cal Ripken		477	114	.239	14	68	0	43	3B-111
HALL OF FAME		DV		DTCD		AV		ATCD		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	1		2		1		1		3
2001 Age: 40	5x5:	3		3		2		3		1

We get to end today's review of the lack of quality AL third basemen on a positive note with a quick review of one of the best and most admired players to ever play Major League Baseball. Cal retires as one of the top couple shortstops ever, and his consecutive games' streak should stand for at least a few decades if not much longer. His All-Star game home run, grooved or not, was still a magical moment, and his retirement leaves the Orioles without a single marketable player known to most baseball fans. The only two questions left are will Cal join the front office of Baltimore or a DC team, and why didn't Tony Gwynn get to do a Coke add with his kid?

Early conclusions: Several guys who qualify at 3B for next season have appeared at 2B or SS, leaving today's group fairly empty of guys you want on your team. As a group, they're probably weaker than the middle infield positions, but the quality of the NL 3B class, combined with the defensive demands of the respective positions, pushed this group of articles back behind the others. Unless you have Lopez, Blalock, or Henson stashed away in your minors, open up your wallet for one of the top 3 guys. Chavez and Glaus especially should have much more success ahead of them, and there's little reason not to pay for it as the replacement talent is both limited and lacking usefulness to most teams.

We'll review American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Take a look over the Rule V draft list. How many of these players do you actually think will stay with their new teams for all of 2002 without a trade, whether they spend the year on the DL or not. If anyone sends in their picks, we'll award prizes to the winners after next season. I'll include my Rule V review in tomorrow's list since there's only another 9 3B qualifiers left.