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December
12th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
Rotohelp
Third Basemen Week, Day Three

by Tim Polko

Woo hoo! We had our first server malfunction today where no one could access the site, including us, leaving us unable to update until later in the morning. How long did it last? That's the beauty of modern technology; we don't really even know. Isn't that wonderful? So please accept our server's apology if you tried to access this earlier. It's a bad server, and we're not going to let it use up all our bandwidth playing Global Thermonuclear War anymore.

Without further adieu, in attempt to distract you from the tedious hours of limited news and almost no free agent signings while major league personnel get soused in Boston, your tired and cranky Rotohelp staff of two is proud to present:

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the NL


We know, we know. Woo hoo to you too. Enjoy.

National League East

Atlanta Braves
Minor League Free Agents:
Howard Battle, 29, B:R, T:R. Battle had two exceptionally good years in 1998 and 1999 in AA and AAA respectively, but he's been unable to sustain either the power or decent plate discipline that he exhibited in those seasons. He has enough talent to contribute in a small role, although I doubt he'll have much impact for either a major league team or yours.
Willis Otanez, 28, B:R, T:R. Otanez had a very solid year for AAA Rochester in 1998, but his power has faded significantly at the expense of only a slight improvement in plate discipline. He could develop into a marginal utility player if the trends continue; I don't expect that will be enough to secure him more than another cup-of-coffee or two.

Prospects:
Mike Hessman, 23, B:R, T:R. Hessman has significant power skills only matched by his total incompetency at commanding the strike zone. He improved his plate discipline significantly in a return trip to AA Greenville this season, managing to eke out a 39:124 BB:K ratio. Fortunately, he did impress quite a few people by cracking a walk-off grand slam with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to win the AFL Championship. He had a very uneventful fall other than that one hit, but I still expect Atlanta to promote him to AAA. He's going to see a lot more time at 1B than 3B considering the wealth of prospects around the rest of the infield, and his upside remains somewhere between that of Russ Davis and Russ Branyan.


Florida Marlins
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Heath Honeycutt, 24, B:R, T:R. He'll need a 3rd year in AA before we'll really know if he can play in the majors. He's only displayed doubles power and a little speed so far, and his plate discipline is fairly bad. While he's shown glimpses of ability, I suspect the only way he'll get significant major league time is if the Marlins rebuild again from the ground up without Lowell, Millar, etc.


Montreal Expos
Minor League Free Agents:
Javier Fuentes, 26, B:R, T:R. He's had no time above AA despite career minor league numbers of 176:157 BB:K in 1289 AB. The obvious downside is that he's only averaging about 244 PA a year and his window is beginning to close. There's probably some really obvious reason such as a complete lack of defensive ability that is restricting his at-bats, but he's shown enough on-base potential where he really should see a few AAA at-bats.

Prospects:
Rob Sasser, 26, B:R, T:R. Sasser had a very solid year for AAA Toledo in 2000, hitting over 50 extra-base hits in 487 at-bats. He regressed very badly with the Expos this year, and considering the number of errors that he accumulated in limited play, he'll need to impress some scouts quickly if he wants to have more than one more cup-of-coffee or so.
Scott Hodges, 22, B:L, T:R. While Hodges has decent power and occasional plate discipline, he needs to improve in most areas of his game before he can advance past AA. He has plenty of time to mature into a solid 3B for a few seasons, but if he wants a longer career than that, he'll need to have a solid 2002 in his return to Harrisburg.


New York Mets
Minor League Free Agents:
Matt Franco, 31, B:L, T:R. An experienced pinch-hitter and corner utility player, Franco doesn't have enough tools to keep him in the majors on a consistent basis. His plate discipline is very solid, and he could help a team as the 25th guy on the roster, but there's no reason for teams to go out of their way to keep him around. He signed with the Braves, where he should get a long look in spring training, especially if they don't re-sign the unrelated Julio Franco.
Mike Terhune, 25, B:S, T:R. Terhune's developed some plate discipline in the low-level minors, but has neither enough power nor speed to impress anyone. I'd be surprised to see him reach any higher than an occasional AAA appearance unless he starts to drive the ball consistently.

Prospects:
Ty Wigginton, 23, B:R, T:R. The Mets have promoted Wigginton very aggressively despite only rare exhibitions of plate discipline. He has significant power potential for the majors, but his upside will be limited until he learns to control the strike zone. There's no reason the Mets can't leave him at AAA for another season or two until he's dominating the competition before considering him for a promotion. He could probably hold his own as a utility player right now, but he could exceed those limited expectations if he receives the needed development time.
Rodney Nye, 24, B:R, T:R. Nye also has the potential for a decently successful major league career, but he needs another year at AA Binghamton to refine his acceptable plate discipline. More importantly, he needs to convert his doubles' power into over-the-fence shots, and there's no reason to rush him with Wigginton already blocking his immediate path to the majors.


Philadelphia Phillies
Minor League Free Agents:
Kevin Orie, 28, B:R, T:R. Orie has finally matured into a very capable third baseman, combining his improved plate discipline with the logical development of the good doubles' power he showed from the moment in broke into the majors back in 1997. While 2001 was likely his peak season, Orie could at least be a very capable back-up for a few years and even start when necessary. The Cubs re-signed him, and there's not a single intelligent reason for keeping Ron Coomer over Orie. He should earn an easy $5 with over a hundred at-bats, and everyone else in your league will likely avoid him for fear of getting burned again.
J.P.Roberge, 28, B:R, T:R. Roberge has significant power, good speed, and makes enough contact to compensate for a lack of plate discipline. He would be an acceptable 25th man for almost any team in the majors right now, and his exclusion from a September cup-of-coffee list is hard to believe when examining his statistics. I'd be slightly concerned about his BA at the major league level, but his power and speed should still allow him to contribute to most roto teams.

Prospects:
None - they definitely need an immediate replacement if they deal Rolen.


National League Central

Chicago Cubs
Minor League Free Agents:
Rick Short, 28, B:R, T:R. Limited power above AA, very good plate discipline, and consistent defense should warrant at least some brief time in the majors. He doesn't have as many tools as some of the other guys on this list, and like all minor league free agents, he'll need to impress immediately when he does receive a chance to play.

Prospects:
Ryan Gripp, 23, B:R, T:R. Gripp was unable to carry his fantastic stats from low A into a rushed promotion to AA. The Cubs significantly erred in this quick advancement, and he didn't rebound back at high A to numbers nearly as good as 2000's. He still has the potential to develop into a successful right-handed slugger, but he won't reach the majors for another two or three years. I'd send him back to A-ball, watch him hit close to .400 for a month, and then let him return to AA.
Dave Kelton, 21, B:R, T:R. While concerns linger about both his defensive ability and plate discipline, he's succeeding at this point based on pure athletic ability. A move to the OF was cut short by an injury that caused him to miss the second half of the season, but he returned to have some noticeable success in the AFL. His strike zone judgement needs a lot of work, and if the Cubs don't send him back to AA to refine his eye and work on his defense, his timetable could be slowed down again by bouncing back and forth between minor league teams.


Cincinnati Reds
Minor League Free Agents:
Jose Amado, 26, B:R, T:R. Amado needs to find a team with enough vision to give him a full year at AAA to see if he can show the power and fantastic plate discipline from his two years at AA Wichita. He might be better off heading to Japan since his skills suggest the possibility of great numbers in smaller parks. Regardless of where he ends up, he could be helping out roto teams within two years if handled properly, although look for AAA success before gambling FAAB.
Pete Rose, 31, B:L, T:R. He's never shown any power or plate discipline above AA and is probably too old to worry about development. His father's legacy is a double-edged sword, one that keeps him in baseball due to a little talent and a "name" attraction, but also one that doesn't require any team but the Reds and Phillies to give him a long look.

Prospects:
Gabe Alvarez, 27, B:R, T:R. He's got power, plate discipline, and a bucketful of errors. Alvarez has bounced around a bit since he was a top Padres' prospect, and he still has the ability to succeed in the majors if given a little time. Unfortunately, he's already a minor league journeyman with an uneven track record, and will need to impress a manager in some spring training before he'll return to a big league per diem.


Houston Astros
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Morgan Ensberg, 25, B:R, T:R. Ensberg is as ready for the majors as any prospect reasonably can be expected to be. He combined a .397 OBP and .592 SLG at AAA New Orleans with a solid 45:60 BB:K in 316 AB. His defense might occasionally annoy his manager, but his offense should more than make up for it. He'll challenge Burroughs for offensive Rookie of the Year based on the Enron advantage and has the tools to hold Houston's 3B job for many years.
Royce Huffman, 24, B:R, T:R. Huffman had a fantastic 2000 at A+ Kissimmee with a 84:49 BB:K ratio, 31 steals and 32 doubles. He only carried the power to AA Round Rock, with the BB:K reversing itself and the steals dropping by almost two thirds. Since he also committed an error every four games or so, I have reservations as to his potential in the Astros' system. Houston has major leaguers at every infield position that range from acceptable to two future Hall-of-Famers, and they also have at least one very good prospect at every position. Huffman needs to rebound very strongly next year to assert himself in the system, or he'll need a new organization next offseason if he wants to fulfill the potential he displayed last season.


Milwaukee Brewers
Minor League Free Agents:
Mike Coolbaugh was discussed with National League 3B yesterday.
Micah Franklin, 29, B:S, T:R. Franklin's bounced around for years without much success outside of great hitters' parks and the PCL. His plate discipline only supports questionable averages, and while he still could put his limited skills together for some brief major league success, he's really just more of a straight AAA player.

Prospects:
Josh Klimek, 27, B:L, T:R. Klimek's one of several Brewers' infield prospects that performs decently but remains a few years old for his league. He's shown solid plate discipline, power, and decent defense for three straight years at AA Huntsville but didn't have enough AAA time to see if he could carry those stats through to the next level. He'll return to AAA next year in an attempt to earn a few seasons' major league service time during his peak years.


Pittsburgh Pirates
Minor League Free Agents:
Bry Nelson, 27, B:S, T:R. Nelson has a AAA skills' set with decent plate discipline, solid doubles' power, and acceptable defense. He has a little major league upside, and I find it far more likely to see him spend a couple more years in the high minors before he'll receive more than an occasional at-bat.

Prospects:
Rico Washington, 23, B:L, T:R. Washington put together some very impressive numbers as a catcher in A-ball in 1999. He's carried his power to AA without much plate discipline, but I suspect part of his slippage is due to the Pirates' lack of faith in him (refusing to add him to the 40-man roster) and a shift away from his natural position of catcher. He has the ability to mature into a very useful utility player, but probably should find an organization that will put more faith in him. Unfortunately, barring a surprise Rule V pick, he's stuck with Pittsburgh for at least another two years.


St. Louis Cardinals
Minor League Free Agents:
Ryan Balfe, 25, B:S, T:R. He has good power, very little plate discipline, and a marginal chance for success in the majors. A switch-hitter that can play 1B, 3B, and OF is always nice to have around, so he'll have plenty more chances, and I expect he'll spend a few of his peak years for some intelligent organization as a Craig Paquette-like bat off the bench.
Lou Lucca, 30, B:R, T:R. A combination of very solid power and little plate discipline leave Lucca as one of the two types of prototypical AAAA player, with the ability to hit for enough power to overcome his weak control of the strike zone instead of enough plate discipline to overcome a lack of power. He should see a cup-of-coffee at some point but teams might not waste a roster spot on him.

Prospects:
Troy Farnsworth, 25, B:R, T:R. Like most of the other offensive prospects in a very weak Cardinals' system, Farnsworth has almost no plate discipline. Unlike many of the others, he compensates with significant power potential. He'll never have much success in the majors but could have a decent career of the 200 at-bat, 40 hit, 10 HR type.


National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor League Free Agents:
Sean McNally, 29, B:R, T:R. McNally will have little success above AAA because his decent power gifts are obscured by extremely bad plat discipline. He doesn't have any other tools to impress scouts, so should continue as primarily a middle-of-the-order AAA batter for several more years.

Prospects:
Brian Dallimore, 27, B:R, T:R. Dallimore used the great hitters' park at AA El Paso to his advantage, posting some superficially impressive counting numbers and BA. Of course, he plate discipline didn't improve, his doubles' power didn't improve, he was caught stealing more times than he successfully advanced, and his BA remains totally out of context with the rest of his career. Dallimore will be lucky to even get a cup-of-coffee at this rate, but the Diamondbacks have shown themselves to be poor enough talent evaluators where they'll probably give him a long look at AAA this year, especially since he's still too young to be on their major league roster.


Colorado Rockies
Minor League Free Agents:
Mike Bell, 26, B:R, T:R. Bell has neither enough power nor plate discipline to have much success above the AAA player. He's maturing into a solid AAAA guy who should receive a few chances with his dad's team in Colorado, but I wouldn't want his questionable and fluctuating numbers on my team.

Prospects:
Ryan Owens, 23, B:R, T:R. Owens has some power, speed, and shows flashes of plate discipline, but he appears a few years away from putting his skills together. I'd expect yet another year at AA, although if he makes the high levels of the Colorado system, he'll begin to receive more opportunities from the clubs that still don't recognize park effects.


Los Angeles Dodgers
Minor League Free Agents:
Tony Schifano, 26, B:R, T:R. He's never shown any tools that would make me think he could hold a job above the AA level. He makes enough contact where I think he'll bounce around for a few years, filling in where teams need IF help, but I just don't see a major league career for him.

Prospects:
Eric Riggs, B:S, T:R. Riggs has a nice package of skills that should result in some time in the majors. While repeating AA in 2001, he improved every aspect of his game except his speed, raising his BA, power, and walk rate while dropping his strikeouts almost in half. He doesn't have a lot of major league upside, but a switch-hitting middle infielder with gap power and plate discipline will have plenty of opportunities in spring training.


San Diego Padres
Minor League Free Agents:
Tony DeRosso, 25, B:R, T:R. He hasn't really shown enough at AA to make me think he'd have more than sporadic AAA success, so he should look for a team very weak at 3B that can give him a year or two of development time. His glimpse of solid power at AA Trenton in 2000 should help him get a few more chances around baseball, and he has a few more years to advance the last two levels.

Prospects:
Sean Burroughs, 20, B:L, T:R. He's dominated every level of baseball including the Little League World Series, and he certainly has the bloodlines to expect major league success considering his dad's very successful career. Burroughs has been two years young for his league in both AA and AAA, so he's on schedule to mature into his power in his third major league season or so. His plate discipline was a little weak this year, but he's still so far advanced for his age that he'll still have immediate success. I'm concerned that the Padres may slot him lower in the lineup, but I'd stick him in the two hole while switching Klesko and Nevin, giving Sean a solid OBP and speed guy ahead of him in Jimenez and a pure right-handed power hitter behind him in Nevin. He'll earn $10 next year without breaking a sweat, and could head towards $20 very quickly if he can maintain his BA with additional at-bats.
Alex Pelaez, 25, B:R, T:R. Pelaez has shown both decent power and plate discipline in his four-year minor league career, although he's been unable to combine his skills into a really successful season. If he wants to have any chance with Padres, he needs to impress right now. Not only do they have one of the best farms systems in the country, but Pelaez has a top pick ahead of him in Burroughs, and two more right behind in Nady and Jake Gautreau.


San Francisco Giants
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Tony Zuniga, 26, B:R, T:R. They should disband Major League Baseball if this guy isn't taken in the Rule V Draft, especially with all the bitching and moaning about the lack of quality third basemen in the game today. Zuniga has shown solid power at every level of the system along with solid walk rates and relatively good to great plate discipline. He doesn't even make many errors at third, and he would have had more success than Pedro Feliz if the Giants had kept him on their 40-man roster. If given a chance in spring training, he'll win their 3B job, but he really should be picked up tomorrow by some savvy organization that needs a 3B/1B RH bat off the bench.


Sean Burroughs is this third base class, and he single-handedly makes this one of the best overall days of rookies. He and Josh Beckett are the easy front-runners for 2002 National League Rookie of the Year, and Burroughs should validate all his many praised abilities in the coming season. Ensberg and Kelton are the 2nd tier, but both of them have received experience at other positions, and Kelton especially might have a better chance to reach the majors faster at a less demanding defensive position. There's talent here that can help immediately for your roto team, and several of these guys are certainly at least worth high minor league picks.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Here's where I normally start begging for requests to review specifics teams for Sunday's article. However, as I'll certainly have enough discussion material with all the deals, I'll instead request Rule V draft commentary. The draft is tomorrow afternoon, and I'll be discussing it in this Friday's article since 2nd tier AL 3B are in short supply, and Rule V is as much fantasy than news-related since they all need to spend 2002 in the majors. I'll run any comments I receive with pick analysis, so schedule some time to pay attention to tomorrow' draft, and you might show up in my Friday column.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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