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December
7th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Second Basemen Week, Day Five

by Tim Polko

What a day - I got to suffer through the double pains of a worsening cold and Bud Selig's testimony to the House Judiciary Committee. His refusal to turn over the CBA-related materials should put him in contempt of Congress, as well as his refusal to provide an exemption to MLBPA representative Steve Fehr that would allow Fehr to provide the Union's opinion on the produced financial numbers. Most committee members appeared irritated enough to consider revoking the entire anti-trust exemption by the end of the hearing since Selig continually stonewalled most questions and wouldn't provide straight "yes" or "no" answers when repeatedly asked. Its almost a relief to return to AAAA players who major league GMs won't give the opportunities that they deserve. What an absolutely unbelievable afternoon.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Prospects from the AL

American League East

Baltimore Orioles
Minor League Free Agents:
Wes Rachels, 25, B:R, T:R. Rachels is one of the most unique players in the minor leagues with a OBP of .371, 77 points above his .294 SLG. He played some 1B, 2B, and OF this year with very few errors, but doesn't really help a team since he has no power or speed. His exceptional plate discipline, including 58:52 BB:K this year and 96:58 BB:K last year, could certainly be useful on a team with solid power at traditionally weak positions, but I don't see him advancing to the majors in the next few years.

Prospects:
Willie Harris, 23, B:L, T:R. Harris' plate discipline slipped upon his promotion to AA Bowie, declining from 89:89 BB:K to 46:71. He still managed to keep his OBP at .364, and his 54 steals appear quite impressive since he only was caught 16 times. Harris continued to show a little extra-base power, most of the long hits probably due to his speed. He played relatively solid defense at both 2B and OF and should spend 2002 in AAA. I'd definitely consider a mid-round draft pick on him since his speed at 2B could be quite valuable, and I'd look for him to challenge Hairston as soon as this September.


Boston Red Sox
Minor League Free Agents:
Quilvio Veras was discussed with National League 2B.

Prospects:
Angel Santos was reviewed with American League 2B.


New York Yankees
Minor League Free Agents:
Kary Bridges, 29, B:L, T:R. Bridges is a free-swinger with a plate discipline style very similar to Tampa catcher Toby Hall, as he doesn't walk much while striking out even less. He's established himself as a solid AAAA player who probably deserves a chance as a utility infielder in the majors. His career minor league .302 average will make him a useful major leaguer, but don't bid above a buck or two when he makes a roster since he doesn't have much non-BA upside even with more playing time.
Victor Rodriguez, 24, B:R, T:R. Rodriguez has developed solid plate discipline with only an acceptable walk rate, and this on-base ability is where most of his value lies. He plays consistent defense with a little bit of speed, and could have a decent career for a few years possibly as even a starting 2B. Hopefully he'll go to an organization that will allow him a full year of AAA development before considering him for at least a platoon job in the majors.

Prospects:
Andy Phillips, 24, B:R, T:R. Phillips has demonstrated some power along with acceptable walk rates, but his plate discipline definitely needs more improvement. He needs at least another half season at AA Norwich to get used to upper level pitching before the Yankees should be comfortable with advancing him. I'd expect him to plateau as a AAAA 2B if he's unable to refine his hitting skills, but he could easily either exceed or fall behind that projection.


Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Minor League Free Agents:
Mike Caruso, 24, B:L, T:R. The White Sox stupidly rushed Caruso to the majors when they were too cheap to find a shortstop other than Benji Gil to compete in spring training. His defense collapsed in his second year since he didn't have enough reps in the minors. Now he doesn't have the plate discipline to avoid swinging at almost any pitches, and while his BB:K ratio looks okay, his walk rate is barely half of an acceptable 10%. He needs to sign with an organization willing to give him back his development time, with a full year at AA and then AAA in hitters' ballparks before anyone should consider him for their major league roster. Since that's very unlikely to happen, hope that Caruso goes to Japan, where he'll play in situation more suited to his currently limited talents.

Prospects:
Brooks Badeaux, 24, B:S, T:R. Badeaux will peak as a AAA utility guy even if his plate discipline does show significant improvement. He probably should have played at AAA this season after displaying excellent plate discipline at AA Orlando last year, but Tampa returned him there and he seems to have sulked through the season. Brooks has little power or speed, so any advancement would occur due to strike zone control and fielding ability; neither of those currently appears impressive enough to warrant more than another year at AA.
Eddy De Los Santos, 23, B:R, T:R. De Los Santos has been unable to succeed at AA in three attempts, leaving me very doubtful for his major league prospects. He has no power and bad baserunning instincts, and he also commits too many errors. I expect him to return to AA for yet another season unless the Rays cut bait on him altogether.


Toronto Bluejays
Minor League Free Agents:
Jaime Goudie, 22, B:R, T:R. Goudie's shown very few skills in his five-year, minor league career. His meager doubles' power doesn't bode well for power development at higher levels, his speed disappeared this year, and he made an error once every four games. He's still too young to rule out potential success down the line, but his prospects are very limited at the moment.

Prospects:
Orlando Hudson, 23, B:S, T:R. Hudson improved his stock this season more than perhaps any other prospect. My only concern is the Bluejays' history of rushing prospects up several levels quickly without giving them enough time to master any of them, an approach they took with Vernon Wells, Cesar Izturis, Felipe Lopez, etc. Ricciardi's smart enough to know that despite Hudson's dominating performance at AA, AAA, and the Arizona Fall League, he needs at least another couple months of AAA experience. As soon as he shows that the power, plate discipline, speed instincts from the AFL weren't a complete fluke (he won't maintain a 1.274 OPS), Hudson should take Homer Bush's spot in the starting lineup.


American League Central

Chicago White Sox
Minor League Free Agents:
Amaury Garcia, 26, B:R, T:R.

When they could get his bat, most teams tend to stand pat
That's Amaury
When they upgrade at 4, teams should really want more
Than Amaury

He had some success in AAA Calgary over the last two years but completely collapsed when he moved to AAA Charlotte in 2001. He's shown significant speed and decent power in the past along with passable plate discipline. Amaury should join some team with an aging second baseman that will allow him another year at AAA to refine his swing before strongly considering him for the starting job. Detroit might be an interesting destination since their prospects are a couple years away and they might have a second base opening in 2003.
Jason Hardtke, 29, B:S, T:R. Hardtke could definitely help as a utility guy in the majors right now. His plate discipline has improved with age, and he's now added a bit of power to his repertoire over the last few years. He can pass at every position except shortstop and catcher, and switch-hitting pinch-hitters with versatility and command of the strike zone are a relatively precious commodity.
Liu Rodriguez, 24, B:S, T:R. Any one of these three minor league free agents could replace a traded Durham for a year or two until Hummel is ready, but Rodriguez might fit best of all of them. His career plate discipline is much more consistently solid than Garcia or Hardtke, and he's flashed both a little power and speed over the last few years. The White Sox erred in keeping Jason Dellaero on the 40-man roster instead of Rodriguez, since Liu is ready for at least a utility role in 2002.

Prospects:
Danny Bravo, 24, B:S, T:R. Bravo will be an instant fan favorite from the moment he steps into Comiskey. He has a little power and speed, but more importantly has solid plate discipline and plays consistent defense at several positions. He'll be a minor league free agent after this season unless the Sox put him on the 40-man roster, which seems to be a no-brainer if he manages an acceptable year at AAA. Jerry Manuel should enjoy having a switch-hitting pinch-hitter with a little speed, good plate discipline, and the ability to play most important defensive positions fairly well. I hope he comes up sometime in 2003, even if he will help the Sox a lot more than a roto team.


Cleveland Indians
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Luis Gonzalez, 22, B:R, T:R. Gonzalez makes good contact despite problematic plate discipline. He doesn't have either much power or speed, so he's probably headed to a brief appearance as a utility infielder unless one of his skills starts developing quickly.
Scott Pratt, 24, B:L, T:R. Pratt made solid progress in his return to AA Akron, including increasing his walk rate to an acceptable 10% and cutting his strikeouts in half. He didn't show any power and displayed relatively poor instincts on the bathpaths as he was caught in 11 of his 27 SB attempts. I don't expect him to succeed above AAA, but he might wind up helping some team for a couple years. Gonzalez and Pratt would make an interesting no-hit, OK-field 2B platoon in four or five years when Alomar's gone.


Detroit Tigers
Minor League Free Agents:
Pedro Santana was covered with American League 2B.

Prospects:
Ronnie Merrill, 22, B:S, T:R. Merrill, a 7th round pick in 2000 out of the University of Tampa, showed enough at class A West Michigan as a shortstop to earn a promotion to AA Erie as a 2B alongside future Tiger shortstop Omar Infante. Ron probably needs a full year at both AA and AAA before he'll be ready for Comerica, and Dombrowski should let Merrill and Infante advance together for the next three years. He'll have a ready-made rookie double play combo hitting the majors at the same time, with potential to provide the best keystone duo in Detroit since Whitaker and Trammell. While those thoughts are quite optimistic, they could contend in a few years if they let their prospects receive enough development time.


Kansas City Royals
Minor League Free Agents:
Brian Benefield, 24, B:R, T:R. Benefield has shown little other than good plate discipline above A-ball, failing to both make consistent contact and demonstrate power in any significant playing time. His value is currently limited to a AAA utility guy at best, but he could develop into a useful backup if he gains some power over the next few years.
Luis Ordaz was covered with American League 2B.

Prospects:
Rod Metzler, 26, B:S, T:R> Metzler plays decent defense and posts very acceptable walk rates, but he has little power or speed and doesn't show much upside. He'll need to improve his plate discipline to even peak as a AAAA player, and the Royals probably aren't the right organization for the teaching he needs.


Minnesota Twins
Minor League Free Agents:
Edwin Diaz, 26, B:R, T:R. While Diaz has always had decent power, his plate discipline has ranged all the way from abysmal to merely horrible in 2001. He'll never earn consistent playing time until he improves his walk rate, a condition that looks quite unpromising since he's shown little improvement in four years at AAA. Avoid him if he makes a team since his BA is too much of a risk considering he only offers a little power at best.

Prospects:
Larry Huff, 29, B:R, T:R. Huff has great plate discipline and some speed, but his lack of power will probably keep him out of the majors. He's also fairly old to catch a team's eye, and he'll need to keep playing solid defense to continue at the AAA level.
Ruben Salazar, 23, B:R, T:R. Salazar needs another year to refine his plate discipline at AA before the Twins should advance him. There's no reason to rush his progress as the major league club is set in the middle infield for the next few years at least. He'll wind up with more power than Rivas in a few years, but I have doubts as to his defensive potential and overall offensive prospects at this point in his development.


American League West

Anaheim Angels
Minor League Free Agents:
Bien Encarnacion, 23, B:R, T:R> Encarnacion only has 23 at-bats above A-ball, and considering he's shown no power or plate discipline at the lowest minor league levels, I don't foresee much success for him at even AA right now. He's still young enough to improve with age, but he has a long way to go before he'll even be ready for AAA.

Prospects:
Justin Baughman, 26, B:R, T:R. Baughman has good speed but lacks plate discipline and any semblance of power. His solid defense and speed might help him back to the majors, although I don't think he'll succeed as more than just a utility infielder.
Trent Durrington, 25, B:R, T:R. Other than possessing a little more power, Durrington's offensive skills are very similar to Baughman's. His speed has decreased dramatically in the last few years, and I don't see much of a role for him above the AAAA level at best.
Chone Figgins, 23, B:S, T:R. Figgins has a lot of speed but little ability to either get on-base or hit for power. While he usually maintains a decent walk rate, his weak plate discipline leaves him vulnerable to BA swings that you want to avoid if he makes the majors any time soon.
Jason Huisman, 25, B:R, T:R. Huisman has some doubles' power without any other noticeable offensive skill. The Angels should be set for a few years with some combination of Kennedy, Eckstein, and Amezaga, so all four of these prospective minor league free agents shouldn't expect to wear halos in the majors any time soon.


Oakland Athletics
Minor League Free Agents:
None.

Prospects:
Esteban German, 22, B:R, T:R. German might be the best 2B and leadoff prospect in the minors, and he has a very good chance to start for Oakland on Opening Day. He rebounded from a problematic 2000 start at AA to post a .415 OBP at AA Midland this year, and then followed that up with an even stronger second half at AAA Sacramento, where he hit .373 with a .457 OBP and a .507 SLG, along with 17 steals in 19 attempts. His defense was acceptable with 23 errors in 113 games at 2B, but his offense will keep him in the majors for years. In just under 2000 career minor league at-bats, German holds a BB:K ratio of .95, a 19% walk rate, and a SB% of 85%. He has all the skills to be an excellent leadoff hitter for the young and powerful A's offense, and he should be at the top of your minor league draft list for this season. While he doesn't have Soriano's power upside, he could steal just as many bases in 2002 with an even better batting average, and he'll certainly get his first walk before May.


Seattle Mariners
Minor League Free Agents:
Manny Alexander, 30, B:R, T:R. Don't ever, ever, ever borrow his car, and if you do, make sure he didn't leave any steroids in the glove box. Cal Ripken's former heir apparent has never shown any real power or plate discipline at any level. His prospect status appears to have been based entirely on some decent speed and the hope that he could learn the strike zone someday. Someday passed for Manny a few years ago; I'm not sure he even deserves a AAA roster spot. Certainly don't draft him if some team stupidly brings him up next season.

Prospects:
Craig Kuzmic, 24, B:S, T:R. He plays most positions but stays mostly in the infield at 2B and 3B. Kuzmic has decent power and acceptable plate discipline, and he really should have had better offensive numbers in AA San Antonio this season. His AFL play wasn't overly impressive aside from a 22:24 BB:K ratio, and I'd seriously consider sending him back to AA until he masters the level. I'm concerned that he'll end up as a AAAA player if they promote him too quickly, when instead he could develop into a late-blooming 2B with significant power with skills only a little short of Jeff Kent or maybe Bret Boone. While I wouldn't invest much in him at the moment, watch his progress next season to see if he's worth a pickup.


Texas Rangers
Minor League Free Agents:
Jason Camilli, 25, B:R, T:R. Camilli has developed some plate discipline over the last few years but his BA remains quite low. He has neither any noticeable power nor speed, with his double digit SB disappearing after the 1997 season. He's a AAA utility guy unless he learns to drive the ball.
Chris Demetral, 31, B:L, T:R. Demtral's been in professional baseball for 11 years without ever making the majors. His AA doubles' power didn't matriculate with him to AAA, and very solid plate discipline alone probably won't be enough to get him to the big leagues. I'd give him a long look in some spring training since he plays relatively consistent defense at several positions, can control the strike zone, and probably has developed decent respect for the game after spending all these years in the minors. He'll likely return to Texas since he's played at AAA Oklahoma for the past four years.
Ryan Dorsey, 19, B:R, T:R. Dorsey's shown no noticeable baseball skills in three years of rookie ball. He obviously impressed a scout at some point or he wouldn't still be playing, but he'll need to make tremendous strides to stay in professional baseball.
Matt Halloran, 23, B:R, T:R. Halloran plays solid defense but has shown only meager power and speed even in A-ball. He displayed practically no offensive talent in the upper minors this year, and probably would be better off playing in an independent league; somewhere like the Northern League would allow him to use his Minor League experience to his advantage over the low level of competition.
Mitch Simons, 32, B:R, T:R. Simons has played at AAA since 1995 with six different organizations. His acceptable doubles' power never matured into any long ball consistency, and his relatively solid speed completely disappeared in 2001. He might possess some useful skills for AAA, but I don't expect him to make the majors based on his apparent lack of established tools.

Prospects:
Jason Romano, 22, B:R, T:R. Romano could be pushing Mike Young for playing time by the middle of this season, although Texas really should leave him at AAA for a full year. His doubles' power in the low minors hasn't quite translated to upper level home run power yet, and his previously impressive speed also largely disappeared this season. If Young impresses early, the Rangers should seriously consider moving Romano to the outfield for good, as shifting his position around might continue confusing him. I like his skills and would definitely consider drafting him considering the future offense around him, even if he might just end up as trade bait for more pitching.
Dave Meliah, 24, B:L, T:R. Meliah progressed better than Romano this year, posting a .489 SLG at AA Tulsa before struggling somewhat in a late season AAA callup. He doesn't have much plate discipline and will probably wind up as a lefty pinch-hitter with the multitude of offensive prospects surrounding him in the system.



Alfonso Soriano appears to be only the first of several fleet 2B prospects ascending to the majors rather quickly. Along with the half dozen shortstop prospects that will emerge as major league second baseman like Soriano, the AL should be very strong at 2B for years to come. Target German and Harris especially, as they could provide significant cheap speed within the next year or two.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Take a look at your team's financial data. See what preposterous inconsistencies you spy in your home team's numbers, such as both the Cubs and Braves earning less local media revenue than the White Sox and several other teams. We hope to look at some of these arguments in the near future, and we'll be happy to focus on specific teams if so requested.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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