December 6th 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Here's a relatively short article for once. My cold doesn't appear to be going anywhere at the moment, so I'll hold off on any additional commentary besides the remaining AL 2B. Ameican League Second Basemen without Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Freel should have stayed on the Bluejays this season as the utility infielder; Gord Ash apparently preferred Chris Woodward's fielding flexibility over the option of having even one decent bat on the bench. Ryan has a lot of speed, great plate discipline, and good OBP, a combination that allows a knowledgeable organization to ignore his lack of power. If he makes a roster next year, Freel won't hurt you for a buck and could provide significant profit with more playing time.
Frye had maintained a decent OBP for several years despite fluctuating plate discipline until this season, where his OPS fell to a career low of .631. He doesn't have much speed left and never showed any power, so I'd be extremely hesitant to own him unless he winds up somewhere like starting at 3rd for Houston, where the ballpark compensates from Frye's lack of skills.
Nieves has never displayed any skills that would help a fantasy team. His biggest contribution in 2001 was in not getting enough playing time to hurt your BA. The Cubs made a great trade by acquiring Fyhrie for him, but of course they negated that advantage by dumping off Fyhrie for a minor league outfielder with little upside near the end of the year. There's really no reason for Nieves to be on your team next year.
Santana has consistently awful plate discipline, a little doubles' power at best, and excellent speed which he can't really use due to his low OBP. He also made 31 errors in 112 games at 2B, so I'm not surprised that the Tigers likely will let him leave as a minor league free agent. He'll be worth a minimum FAAB when he receives an occasional call-up only if you're desperate for steals and can risk potential BA damage.
Ordaz swings at almost every pitch he sees, a practice that keeps both his walk and strikeout rates very low. As you might expect, it also keeps his BA and OBP quite depressed. He has little power or speed, so really can't contribute to a roto team in any meaningful way even if he does trick some team into keeping him on their roster.
Santos posted much improved power and speed numbers while repeating AA Trenton and should play 2B full-time at AAA next season. He's on track to take over when Offerman's contract ends after this season. He has the potential to post consistent double digits in both homers and speed, although his BA will depend on whether he can improve his plate discipline over the next year or two. I'd consider a low minor league draft pick on Santos, as he might fizzle as a tools' guy without much strike zone command, but he could also mature into a solid second basemen by 2004.
After receiving 175 or more at-bats in each of the last three seasons, Tampa outrighted Smith to the minors after 19 April at-bats with only one hit. He's shown extremely good power at AAA Durham over the last two years with a slugging percentage well over .500 both seasons, and he's even maintained very respectable OBP (.379 in 2001) despite striking out two to three times as often as he walked. Smith has even stolen several bases with a success rate well over 80%. Tampa should strongly consider giving him at least a platoon job somewhere in the lineup since they desperately need power anywhere they can get it. They showed enough confidence in him to return him to the 40-man roster at the end of the season, so definitely bid a dollar if he makes the team. His MLE indicates a potential $10 ballplayer, and most of your fellow owners likely have written him off as a AAAA player at best.
Frank Paul gets more respect from teammates who enjoy his hard-nosed style of play than general managers or fantasy owners. His OBP is usually fairly good since he controls the strike zone extremely well, but he doesn't really add any speed or power to your team. Santangelo's value used to be derived largely from his multi-positional eligibility so he won't help you much as just a 2B. While I haven't heard where he'll sign for next year, I suspect he'll still want to stay near to his Bay area home, and since he's worked his way through Frisco, LA, and Oakland, I think Anaheim might be a logical destination for him in 2002.
The Athletics never really gave Ortiz a chance this year after his strained left calf allowed Menechino to win the 2B job in spring training. They wisely dealt Ortiz to a rebuilding team for immediate help in Jermaine Dye, an excellent trade for both the A's and Colorado. Oakland has a few major-league ready second basemen ready to step in, and while Ortiz should have great success as a Rockie, they won't miss him in the Mausoleum.
Woodward has shown almost no offensive potential until this season, so I was quite set to rip Gord Ash (again) for keeping him around. At least, I was going to do that until I double-checked his AAA Syracuse stats this season. He has no plate discipline but still somehow managed a .580 SLG in 200 at-bats in his fourth year in the league. Now, I know that this sample size is small, and he does have significant experience in the league. However, with Woodward's otherwise limited roto potential, this is the first glimmer that he might be as a useful utility infielder someday. I think he needs more AAA work so he can control the strike zone better, and I don't think his defense alone warrants a major league roster spot. He could even regress to a only a dozen extra-base hits in 300 at-bats next season. Even so, check back on his power numbers next year. There's a chance that they're for real, and most reporters have already written Woodward off as a good-field, no-hit prospect. There's a chance to exploit that perception, albeit very small and completely dependent on him building on a 2001 season that looks quite distinct from the rest of his career.
Bellhorn regularly flashed 5-tool talent in AAA over the past few years, and he's racked up some impressive numbers in the hitter-friendly PCL. His defensive reputation is excellent, leading to the perception that he'd make a great utility guy despite very bad numbers in a small number of reserve at-bats. The Cubs dealt a decent 2B prospect in Adam Morissey to acquire Bellhorn even though the A's were likely to DFA him in another week or two; they can show a solid return on their advancement if they can let Bellhorn establish himself as an everyday player. If Chicago can't re-sign Ricky Gutierrez, they should let Bellhorn compete with Augie Ojeda for the starting shortstop job, possibly platooning them to see how each responds to a more important role. Bellhorn could surprise with a few good seasons, either helping the Cubs with offense from a problematic position or giving them a now valuable trade asset. Despite these optimistic projections, tread carefully with your spring bids, and remember that Bellhorn has done nothing with over 300 big league at-bats.
We'll review minor league free agents, prospects, and suspects from the American League tomorrow.
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tim@rotohelp.com. |
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