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December
6th
2001
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
   
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Second Basemen Week, Day Four

by Tim Polko

Here's a relatively short article for once. My cold doesn't appear to be going anywhere at the moment, so I'll hold off on any additional commentary besides the remaining AL 2B.

Ameican League Second Basemen without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Position(s) = Positions listed with 20 or more 2001 appearances.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value.  DTCD = Draft Total Category Dollars.
AV = Actual Value.  ATCD = Actual Total Category Dollars.
LABR/Tout = 2001 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

A brief review of what our dollar values mean:
Draft Value is how much a player should have gone for on draft day.
DTCD is the highest acceptable draft day price without a value loss.
Actual Value is how much a player earned this year.
ATCD is the highest price at which you could have owned a player without a value loss in leagues with an in-season salary cap.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.

23. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Ryan Freel 226.2730321 2B-7
TOR Bluejays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0101 1
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 0101 Res

Freel should have stayed on the Bluejays this season as the utility infielder; Gord Ash apparently preferred Chris Woodward's fielding flexibility over the option of having even one decent bat on the bench. Ryan has a lot of speed, great plate discipline, and good OBP, a combination that allows a knowledgeable organization to ignore his lack of power. If he makes a roster next year, Freel won't hurt you for a buck and could provide significant profit with more playing time.


24. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jeff Frye 17543.246215224 2B-47, 3B-27
TOR Bluejays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0101 Res
2001 Age: 37 5x5: 1211 Res

Frye had maintained a decent OBP for several years despite fluctuating plate discipline until this season, where his OPS fell to a career low of .631. He doesn't have much speed left and never showed any power, so I'd be extremely hesitant to own him unless he winds up somewhere like starting at 3rd for Houston, where the ballpark compensates from Frye's lack of skills.


25. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jose Nieves 5313.2452305 2B-11
ANA Angels DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: 0000
2001 Age: 26 5x5: 0000

Nieves has never displayed any skills that would help a fantasy team. His biggest contribution in 2001 was in not getting enough playing time to hurt your BA. The Cubs made a great trade by acquiring Fyhrie for him, but of course they negated that advantage by dumping off Fyhrie for a minor league outfielder with little upside near the end of the year. There's really no reason for Nieves to be on your team next year.


26. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Pedro Santana 00.0000000 2B-1
DET Tigers DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 24 5x5: -1000

Santana has consistently awful plate discipline, a little doubles' power at best, and excellent speed which he can't really use due to his low OBP. He also made 31 errors in 112 games at 2B, so I'm not surprised that the Tigers likely will let him leave as a minor league free agent. He'll be worth a minimum FAAB when he receives an occasional call-up only if you're desperate for steals and can risk potential BA damage.


27. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Luis Ordaz 5614.2500408 2B-19
KC Royals DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -1000
2001 Age: 25 5x5: 0000

Ordaz swings at almost every pitch he sees, a practice that keeps both his walk and strikeout rates very low. As you might expect, it also keeps his BA and OBP quite depressed. He has little power or speed, so really can't contribute to a roto team in any meaningful way even if he does trick some team into keeping him on their roster.


28. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Angel Santos 162.1250102 2B-6
BOS Red Sox DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 21 5x5: -1-1-1-1

Santos posted much improved power and speed numbers while repeating AA Trenton and should play 2B full-time at AAA next season. He's on track to take over when Offerman's contract ends after this season. He has the potential to post consistent double digits in both homers and speed, although his BA will depend on whether he can improve his plate discipline over the next year or two. I'd consider a low minor league draft pick on Santos, as he might fizzle as a tools' guy without much strike zone command, but he could also mature into a solid second basemen by 2004.


29. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Bobby Smith 192.1050101 2B-6
TB Devil Rays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1 1
2001 Age: 27 5x5: -2-1-1-1 1

After receiving 175 or more at-bats in each of the last three seasons, Tampa outrighted Smith to the minors after 19 April at-bats with only one hit. He's shown extremely good power at AAA Durham over the last two years with a slugging percentage well over .500 both seasons, and he's even maintained very respectable OBP (.379 in 2001) despite striking out two to three times as often as he walked. Smith has even stolen several bases with a success rate well over 80%. Tampa should strongly consider giving him at least a platoon job somewhere in the lineup since they desperately need power anywhere they can get it. They showed enough confidence in him to return him to the 40-man roster at the end of the season, so definitely bid a dollar if he makes the team. His MLE indicates a potential $10 ballplayer, and most of your fellow owners likely have written him off as a AAAA player at best.


30. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
F.P. Santangelo 7114.19708116 2B-20
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 33 5x5: -10-10

Frank Paul gets more respect from teammates who enjoy his hard-nosed style of play than general managers or fantasy owners. His OBP is usually fairly good since he controls the strike zone extremely well, but he doesn't really add any speed or power to your team. Santangelo's value used to be derived largely from his multi-positional eligibility so he won't help you much as just a 2B. While I haven't heard where he'll sign for next year, I suspect he'll still want to stay near to his Bay area home, and since he's worked his way through Frisco, LA, and Oakland, I think Anaheim might be a logical destination for him in 2002.


31. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Jose Ortiz 427.1670314 2B-10
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1 15
2001 Age: 24 5x5: -2-1-1-1 16

The Athletics never really gave Ortiz a chance this year after his strained left calf allowed Menechino to win the 2B job in spring training. They wisely dealt Ortiz to a rebuilding team for immediate help in Jermaine Dye, an excellent trade for both the A's and Colorado. Oakland has a few major-league ready second basemen ready to step in, and while Ortiz should have great success as a Rockie, they won't miss him in the Mausoleum.


34. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Chris Woodward 6312.1902509 2B-17
TOR Bluejays DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R 4x4: -2-1-1-1
2001 Age: 25 5x5: -2-1-1-1

Woodward has shown almost no offensive potential until this season, so I was quite set to rip Gord Ash (again) for keeping him around. At least, I was going to do that until I double-checked his AAA Syracuse stats this season. He has no plate discipline but still somehow managed a .580 SLG in 200 at-bats in his fourth year in the league. Now, I know that this sample size is small, and he does have significant experience in the league. However, with Woodward's otherwise limited roto potential, this is the first glimmer that he might be as a useful utility infielder someday. I think he needs more AAA work so he can control the strike zone better, and I don't think his defense alone warrants a major league roster spot. He could even regress to a only a dozen extra-base hits in 300 at-bats next season. Even so, check back on his power numbers next year. There's a chance that they're for real, and most reporters have already written Woodward off as a good-field, no-hit prospect. There's a chance to exploit that perception, albeit very small and completely dependent on him building on a 2001 season that looks quite distinct from the rest of his career.


35. AB H BA HR RBI SB R Position(s)
Mark Bellhorn 7410.13514011 2B-12
OAK Athletics DVDTCDAVATCD LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R 4x4: -5-4-3-3
2001 Age: 26 5x5: -4-3-2-2 Res

Bellhorn regularly flashed 5-tool talent in AAA over the past few years, and he's racked up some impressive numbers in the hitter-friendly PCL. His defensive reputation is excellent, leading to the perception that he'd make a great utility guy despite very bad numbers in a small number of reserve at-bats. The Cubs dealt a decent 2B prospect in Adam Morissey to acquire Bellhorn even though the A's were likely to DFA him in another week or two; they can show a solid return on their advancement if they can let Bellhorn establish himself as an everyday player. If Chicago can't re-sign Ricky Gutierrez, they should let Bellhorn compete with Augie Ojeda for the starting shortstop job, possibly platooning them to see how each responds to a more important role. Bellhorn could surprise with a few good seasons, either helping the Cubs with offense from a problematic position or giving them a now valuable trade asset. Despite these optimistic projections, tread carefully with your spring bids, and remember that Bellhorn has done nothing with over 300 big league at-bats.


There's not much upside to this small group of retreads, but some upside exists with AAAA players like Bellhorn and Smith, as well as Santos since he's the only prospect in the group. Ortiz easily has the most upside, but he's in the NL now. Owners in AL leagues need to grab one of the several young starting 2B discussed yesterday and hope they stay healthy, since there isn't as much depth right now at the position.

We'll review minor league free agents, prospects, and suspects from the American League tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Listen to the Judiciary Committee hearings today at 1pm Eastern if you have the time, and read the Committee news updates if you don't. Selig's testimony will be quoted for years even if no Congressional action is taken, so monitor it now for early mocking opportunities.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
 
 
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