December 5th 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko There's going to be a slight change in this week's schedule. I'm in the middle of fighting off a potentially bad cold, so I decided to save the research-intensive NL minor league article until Saturday. The other three articles will each be bumped up a day accordingly. Here's the revised schedule for the rest of the week:
Today: American Leaguers with Positive Draft Value. American League Second Basemen with Positive Draft Value
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Alomar continues to dominate at the very highest levels of the game. He's combined the speed of his youth with the power of maturity to produce several consecutive extremely valuable years. He may be peaking right now but he could easily sustain this for a few more years. His team-dependent numbers will fall if Cleveland doesn't provide him with additional offensive support. Also be wary of trade rumors, since despite Alomar's Hall of Fame career, teams seem to find plenty of excuses to both deal and acquire him.
The 32-year old was able to combine his previous career highs in most roto categories while even increasing his top marks in power and average. He attributed his newfound abilities to a better workout regime and refused to call his season a fluke despite its apparent incongruity with the rest of his career. His team even made the playoffs thanks largely to his contributions, before failing to win the pennant. But enough about Brady Anderson in 1996.
We attended the game in April where Soriano recorded his first walk of year, and 50,572 Yankee fans gave him a standing ovation. He started to show more plate discipline by the end of the year. I'm not sure if he can repeat these numbers immediately since he appears a prime candidate for a sophomore slump, but I also think that he can probably balance any losses with gains in other categories. For example, his steals should go up as he learns to read pitchers better and gets on base more, especially if he winds up hitting at the top of the order. A thought for your NL drafts: D'Angelo Jimenez had better minor league numbers before his injury last year.
Durham turned into a #6 hitter when the Sox expected him to be their catalyst at the top of the order. His plate discipline slipped after three extremely consistent years (BB:K of 75:105, 73:105, and 73:105 before 2001), dropping his OBP to the lowest point since his rookie year. He maintained decent value even with these problems, but the Sox are probably wise in exploring deals for him. His SB% has also fallen significantly and I wouldn't really expect him to hit 30 steals again. Durham's career progression almost suggests that he's now going to have a few seasons like Damian Easley did two years ago, although his production might depend on him finding a comfortable situation, either in Chicago or elsewhere.
Much of the auction money went to Hairston and Abernathy, and Rivas proceeded to out-earn both of them combined. Always bet on speed and playing time for young middle infielders. Rivas didn't have a particularly great year even if he certainly helped out fantasy players with those 31 steals. There's no reason that he can't improve on that as he gains experience and hopefully a little more plate discipline. Anything up to $20 next year might net you a profit, and he's within a year or two of maturing into Cristian Guzman, with both players still possessing great potential.
Left for roto death by many fantasy players after his dreadful 2000, Bush put together some helpful statistics in a year right in line with his career numbers. He has no comprehension of the strike zone, but manages to make enough contact to occasionally post a decent average with double-digit steals. I wouldn't bid to $10 next year since his BA is so volatile and Toronto has a lot of young middle infielders that need playing time. You might consider him at a low price, although some of the younger players could produce bigger profits.
While he may be pushed aside by some of the Angel prospects or even Eckstein in a year or two, I think Kennedy's going to have a nice little run, possibly pushing the $20 that everyone expected this season. He'll be 26 with 2+ years of experience next year in a decent lineup and splitting his time between some great pitching ballparks (Oakland and Seattle) and some rather attractive ones for hitters (Texas and Houston). I expect him to rebound to around his rookie levels, with slightly improved production offset by fewer at-bats since he should hit lower in the order.
Velarde could fall apart at any time due to his advanced age, but he's maintained his production over the past few seasons despite moving around a lot. His 2002 value will depend entirely on where he signs and what role his new team wants him to fill. Due to the risks of age, injury, and ever-present prospects, I probably won't ante more than a couple bucks at most to see if he has any cards left to play.
Stynes would have earned back his auction price if Boston had stayed with more consistent lineups. His plate discipline is average at best, and his BA should continue to fluctuate. I wouldn't be surprised to see him post double digits in HR and SB one of these years, but it would help if he was left alone at one position and lineup spot for a while.
The Red Sox will be left with an $8 million-a-year bench player if they bring in another 1B or 2B. They already have a few candidates for almost every infield spot and would be much better served by spending their money to replace Nomo in the rotation, add bullpen depth if Lowe's going to start, and pay someone to take Everett off their hands. Offerman can help their lineup if they let him play and run. Pay careful attention to how they use him in spring training. His value could jump to the mid-20's if they let him start running again, and while his speed probably isn't what it was three years ago, I still think he could post an easy 20 steals with more green lights.
Alicea likely made a nice profit for his owners this year. His plate discipline slipped noticeably this season so I'd be careful in picking him up next season; some of his other skills could also start disappearing like his speed and batting eye. While I don't expect he'll repeat this many at-bats next year wherever he lands as a free agent, he could earn a few bucks on a minimum investment. Make sure you know his role before bidding.
Johnson's value was due almost entirely to a batting average that appears to be mostly a fluke. He's never really displayed much power or speed, and his plate discipline is average at best. I wouldn't expect him to receive much more playing time now that some of Tampa's rookies are ready to play in the majors, and I almost expect the Rays to non-tender him, since his potentially limited 2002 role doesn't justify his likely arbitration award.
Everyone keeps forgetting that Camden was playing as a pitchers' park even before they moved home plate back a couple yards. His previously solid plate discipline dropped dramatically this year, and his OPS also fell far short of most expectations. He has the ability to double his value for next season and will likely do so if he can bring his average up through more pitch selectivity. He doesn't have much of a window to establish himself since the Orioles' few prospects seem clustered in the middle infield with Roberts and Rogers.
He'll have more success if he can bump up his walk rate a little, but Abernathy should still solidify the Rays at 2nd for several years. He can easily rack up double digits in both homers and steals with some experience, and while some of his numbers slipped in the high minors, he still showed enough potential to warrant solid bids for 2002. I'll be shocked if he earns less than $10, a value he could double with some consistency in an offense that really must improve next year.
When Detroit signed him to a long-term deal, they knew he'd only had two good offensive years, two years that happened to occur in his prime while in a great hitters' ballpark in Detroit. His slippage with age is unsurprising given the factors that led to those career highs. Easley only has average plate discipline and therefore has a hard time breaking out of slumps, and while he could rebound with another good year or two like his Tiger debuts, he can just as easily drop even further back to his Angel days of considerably worse offensive contributions.
Cabrera doesn't have enough skill to play every day but can contribute in enough areas with his defense and speed to be a valuable utility guy for a few years. He's not really worth more than a dollar or two in an auction since he has little upside, although he could surprise with a $10 return one of these years if Cleveland gives him another 100 at-bats. His plate discipline varies from acceptable to very good; he's not consistent enough to risk any significant money for the immediate future.
Graffanino has shown decent plate discipline in the past along with solid walk rates. Kenny Williams should consider taking the radical approach of dealing both Durham and Clayton before they leave as free agents after 2002, and maybe just let Graffanino play second for a season until Tim Hummell is ready. He doesn't have enough power to help out, but I'm convinced he could hold a solid OBP at the bottom of the order. He'll almost always earn a small profit on a buck investment, but he's exactly the type of player to target for your taxi squad: decent skills and some position flexibility, along with the possibility of a higher value with more playing time.
Rolls only showed decent speed in the minors, shocking almost everyone when he took much of the fantasy world by storm in early May with 7 steals in 17 days. Of course his best production was over by the time most of us FAAB'd him and new Tampa manager Hal MacRae anointed him the starter. His abilities seemed to vanish, leaving us with a reserve with a little speed potential but unlikely to receive much more playing time with Abernathy, Huff, and Sandberg all ready for big league action. Rolls is a decent dollar gamble if you need cheap speed, but he could just as easily hurt your BA and not help you anywhere else. He should stick around for a couple years a utility infielder; any more playing time than that would be a surprise.
Back when the Jays were loaded with middle infield prospects, they jumped Izturis and Felipe Lopez over a necessary level of development, leaving both of them very young for their league and struggling against more experienced competition. J.P. Ricciardi now has enough talent in the system to allow him to send them back to AAA for at least half of 2002, letting them learn as a unit that includes Izturis at short, Lopez at third, and Orlando Hudson at 2B. All three prospects need more plate discipline before they can maintain success in the majors, and while Lopez could probably stay in the majors now, Izturis really needs the extra seasoning. His main asset is his speed, and he needs a higher OBP to use his speed most effectively. I'd try to pick him up as a minor leaguer in the spring, but I wouldn't risk the potential BA damage of rostering him in the auction unless I saw something really impressive in his spring stats. He could also be dealt if Alex Gonzalez can't be moved.
Young doesn't have as much upside as most of the other Ranger position player prospects although he could still have years of success as a potential leadoff hitter with solid speed. Texas can afford his lack of power at 2B considering their Hall-of-Fame production from the normally weak catcher and shortstop positions, but Young desperately needs to improve his plate discipline and OBP if he's going to be anything but a mildly useful 9th hitter for a couple seasons. His roto value could be anywhere between $1 and $20 depending on how quickly the veterans in the lineup teach him how to bat.
I sure hope you dealt him by the All-Star break since Menechino had one of the worst 2nd halves in all of baseball. Billy Beane got a great half season out of a solid minor league veteran, and I suspect he can be a decent utility guy for another couple years. Still, I can't see him starting since at least three players in spring training would be more useful to a team desperate for a leadoff hitter at 2nd: Esteban German, Mark Ellis, and even Chad Meyers. Menechino shouldn't hurt you for a dollar, although I doubt you can get him that cheaply considering the press he received during his rise to glory in the spring.
Beltran has blown past The Other Carlos in production, and Febles still just can't seem to stay healthy enough to fulfill his potential. His auction bids are right in line with his expected value if he could play a full season, but he shows no ability to reduce his apparent fragility. He's not a great risk since his plate discipline is no better than average, although I know he'll make it through one of these seasons and earn close to $20. I hope you can own him when he finally achieves that breakthrough, even if I might not have that much patience left with him.
We'll review American Leaguers without Positive Draft Value tomorrow.
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Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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