December 4th 2001 |
Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko Free agent signings appear to be picking up a little, so hopefully we'll have several players to review on Sunday. As before, if you'd like me to discuss a particular teams' 2B position in detail this weekend, I'll be happy to accommodate your request.
Quick Key to the tables:
A brief review of what our dollar values mean: Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest.
Bocachica appears to improve with more consistent playing time. Neither his plate discipline, SB%, nor stolen base totals were close to his minor league highs, so I still think there's a good chance that he'll improve over the next few years. I wouldn't risk much more than an Ultra pick on him for now, but he's shown solid upside in his history. Now he has to carry that over to the major league level while probably remaining in a reserve role.
Pena slipped in most areas after his promotion to AAA. His rise in errors and lower plate discipline are probably the most worrisome, but he still has plenty of time to rebound. He's needed two years to really get comfortable at each level, so he'll probably have a decent year back at AAA in 2002 and then could be worth a roto pick in 2003. Watch his position to see what role the Brewers want him to learn.
Mateo owns a ton of speed without much plate discipline whatsoever. He doesn't hit well enough to leave 2B and the Expos appear set with Vidro, so Mateo will likely either spend another year at AAA or emerge as a utility infielder and pinch-runner in Montreal. I'd like to see him get a few more minor league seasons even though Mateo could post some relatively impressive SB numbers. If he breaks camp with Montreal, he's probably worth a buck on his speed upside alone, but the BA risk would keep me from bidding higher.
Newhan was out for most of the year with shoulder inflammation and the Phillies released him as a minor league free agent at the end of the year. He has a little power and speed but has never demonstrated enough plate discipline to use either tool with much effectiveness. He's likely a utility infielder at best, and I see no reason to draft him since his BA will hold down any other value he might acquire.
Branson's never contributed much to roto teams in his career as a utility infielder/AAA journeyman, and he could start slipping even further in his late 30's. Since he has very little upside at this point, I'd avoid him in the draft even if he makes a team. I just don't see him contributing much in the future.
These seven at-bats were only Forbes' second cup-of-coffee in 12 minor league seasons. His plate discipline varies between acceptable and excellent, and he has a little bit of speed to go with good doubles' power. He could have definitely started for some teams in the mid-90's, but he's probably stuck as a utilityman at best since he plays very consistent defense at 2B, SS, and the outfield. Don't expect him to see many more chances since he's bounced around so much, however he won't hurt you if you need some low risk at-bats if he does show up someplace.
Lopez was a mildly interesting gamble while in Enron but really doesn't possess many skills. He hasn't shown much speed or power since AA in 1997, and bouncing around as a minor league free agent won't likely endear himself to any single organization. Even if he makes a team, plenty of safer bets are available, so I'd avoid him unless he winds up back in a great hitters' ballpark.
Figueroa's shown excellent plate discipline for the past several years, almost always walking more than he strikes out. He doesn't have significant upside as he has little if any power or speed, and his defense appears to be adequate at best. I doubt he'd hurt you as a utility infielder, but the track record of acceptable minor league middle infielders with few tools and plate discipline isn't particularly wonderful in the majors. I'd only trust him in a full-time role, one that he's unlikely to have for at least a few more years.
After being dealt with Kotsay for Clement and Owens, Crespo gave the Padres another utility option at the upper levels of the system. He has excellent speed and shows good defense all around the diamond. His only drawback is a relative lack of power but that could develop as he matures. I think the Padres will have him split another year between AAA and the majors, phasing him into a utility role for a couple years with a chance to start down the road if his power improves.
Jordan's increased position eligibility make him an attractive reserve pick, since he shouldn't really hurt you if you just need a few at-bats here or there with perhaps a home run or two. His BA could be a problem with more playing time, so I'd only draft him in leagues with very flexible reserve rosters.
Selby has consistently shown good power and solid plate discipline at the upper levels of the minors and probably could provide an offensive boost for several clubs at 2B. He definitely shouldn't hurt you if he can make it as a utility guy, and he certainly has the skills to earn a noticeable profit with increased playing time. Don't be afraid to bid a buck in the endgame, but also consider saving your money for younger guys with a little more upside.
Stubby Clapp is not one of those younger utility guys with upside. He's another very capable and experienced minor league second basemen who's never impressed anyone enough to earn a shot in the bigs. His plate discipline is excellent and he has some doubles' power and speed. FAAB him when he comes up over the next few years, and I don't think he'll really hurt you. He might even give you a nice boost in some of the quantitative categories.
Berg combines no tools with barely adequate plate discipline, leaving us with a 2B who only gains value when he qualifies on the left side of the infield. I don't envision Berg helping roto teams, since he just doesn't have any upside and could also hurt you BA. Stay away unless you think Florida might somehow start him over Gonzalez; I can't think of another scenario where he might be a decent pick.
Riggs isn't quite a lethal weapon as he has some problems with plate discipline, but he also owns a nice combination of power and speed. He could help several teams in a full-time role, and the Dodgers probably should have kept him around in the majors instead of letting him go at the end of 2000. His BA could be a problem in a limited role, so only draft him if he lucks into a starting job, enabling his counting numbers to out-earn his more troublesome stats.
Trading for Donnie Sadler is high on the list of "You know your team's in trouble when..." answers. Sadler has no power and his abysmal plate discipline guarantees that even if he finds the speed that he displayed in the minors, he won't be on base enough to use it. Avoid him unless you like heartache, and simply don't think of...drafting...Sadler...again.
He must have ticked off someone in the Cub organization royally. They DFA'd Meyers at the end of the season and then dealt a 20-year old decently solid 2B prospect in A-ball named Adam Morissey for Mark Bellhorn, who's very similar to Meyers except he has less speed and plays a better shortstop. I'd rather have Augie Ojeda than Bellhorn, so I just don't understand why they made that switch. The Cubs could have just kept Meyers and Morissey and then probably even picked up Bellhorn when the Athletics would have likely released him anyway. Andy MacPhail's handling of the 40-man roster this year has cost us several decent players, and Meyers is a guy who could be very useful on a team that uses his strengths. He could be very valuable on Oakland as a utility guy with good OBP and a lot of speed. Don't go more than a buck or two unless he wins the 2B job outright, but he could grab a half dozen steals in limited plate appearances, and he should be able to maintain a respectable BA. He's has some trouble with that in the past although I expect the A's will give him enough at-bats to keep him fresh.
The Pirates simply gave up on Morris too quickly. I realize that he's shown very little since his rookie year, but he still has decent skills; he just hasn't been showing them off too much. Pittsburgh needs to give him another chance this season after they eat Pat Meares' contract. They can dump him if he fails, but a good two hundred at-bats should at least drum up some decent trade interest, and then they could focus on a younger prospect with more upside.
One of the more consistent pinch hitters and utility players in roto appears to have slowed down rather rapidly. Lockhart was never that special even in his prime, but he also never really hurt his owners. He could have some value next year depending on how his new team uses him, so know his role before you even consider bidding on him.
He's even worse for his real team and sim players than he was in roto this year, and nothing about his career points to any improvement. Even his slightly increasing walk rate is obscured by simply awful plate discipline and very little power or speed. His BA is simply too big of a risk in any stadium, and Meares should only be drafted in very extreme circumstances, such as when a slurred request for beer might inadvertently buy him for you.
We'll review National League minor league free agents, prospects, and suspects tomorrow.
1. Based on these pitchers' combined statistics during their age 34 and 35 seasons, do you find either of these two comparisons valid? 2. If so, which one(s) do you find to be an appropriate comparison. If you find both to be good comps, which one do you find to be the better comparison? I'll look forward to your responses, and will post the results in a day or so. Thank you for taking the time to help me out with this small research project.
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